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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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My month to date average is now 50.9 and my normal for the entire month is 51.1.  That's a big deal in October when the normal drops a degree every 4.5 days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The trough late next week has gone even colder on the 18z GFS.  What began appearing on the models as a trough that would dig well offshore is now shown to come right down on us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Crazily overdue for a 65+ mph widespread event not from a t'storm or dry east wind.

Cinnamon Roll Storms!

I can only imagine the sound of that roar with the then much more densely wooded Puget Sound area sounded like. 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Post some maps 

GFS 500mb Heights.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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18z GFS takes 850s down to -3.5 on Sunday.  Very respectable for this early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

57 and sunny here. The last two days have been spectacular. The endless gray is coming, so I’m enjoying the sun while it lasts. 

If things stay troughy like this there will plenty of sunshine going forward.  We are in a trough right now in fact.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I can only imagine the sound of that roar with the then much more densely wooded Puget Sound area sounded like. 

I'll never forget the roar in December 2006.  That was just a notch below the Columbus Day Storm.  The name of that storm poses some problems with the liberals BTW.  We might have to rename it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Acer said:

55/34 today.  I expect a freeze here tonight.

No reason to think tonight won't be as cold as last night even though the models aren't bullish about that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

57/40 today. 

58/35 here.  There was light frost here this morning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I can only imagine the sound of that roar with the then much more densely wooded Puget Sound area sounded like. 

I can only imagine the sound of large branches breaking and trees crashing to the ground or on the top of the house, car or an outbuilding.  All of this without electricity or phones.  Wind sucks.

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21 minutes ago, Acer said:

I can only imagine the sound of large branches breaking and trees crashing to the ground or on the top of the house, car or an outbuilding.  All of this without electricity or phones.  Wind sucks.

Yeah...I'm kind of done with wind.  Some of that has to do with the trees around my house, but it causes real problems with the type of trees we have here.  I get plenty of east wind here to give me my annual fix.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

58/35 here.  There was light frost here this morning.

Interesting how sometimes my lows are only 2-3 degrees warmer than yours and other times it can be as much as 5-8 degrees warmer. Very rarely do I end up colder than you…only nights I can recall it happening was during cloud cover over the EPSL and clearing near the sound. Gotta love western WA microclimates. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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We will see about getting into the 30s tonight…still haven’t gotten there yet this fall. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Interesting how sometimes my lows are only 2-3 degrees warmer than yours and other times it can be as much as 5-8 degrees warmer. Very rarely do I end up colder than you…only nights I can recall it happening was during cloud cover over the EPSL and clearing near the sound. Gotta love western WA microclimates. 

Indeed.  There are some cold pockets around here that can be several degrees colder than here under certain conditions.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ok boomer

Just on the cusp of Gen X actually.  I actually identify much more with X than the Boomers.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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SEA only missed their record low by two degrees this morning.  The record is 39 from 1949 and 1961.

At this point it's becoming obvious this cold snap is going to look very impressive when it's all said and done.  We could be looking at the coldest first half of October on record or close to it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

42˚F. About the same as last night.

Same here, but it's about two degrees colder than last night at this time.  Solid cold snap no matter how you slice it.  The only October I can find that is off the table for us to beat for coldest first half of October is 1916.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Same here, but it's about two degrees colder than last night at this time.  Solid cold snap no matter how you slice it.  The only October I can find that is off the table for us to beat for coldest first half of October is 1916.

I think it’s a degree cooler here than exactly 24 hours ago, but that’s so close I’m not obsessing over it. I suspect it will cloud up with the approaching system overnight and when that happens it will be the end of the radiational cooling.

One thing’s sure, official forecast has already busted and busted hard. Was calling for a low of 51˚F! What were they smoking?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Record low for today at KBLI is 30˚F in 1985. That’s not in danger.

If everything lines up right, may well see some frost here next week, though.

No doubt.  The ECMWF has been rock steady in advertising a very chilly morning on Tuesday.  No doubt that 1985 cold snap was a good early October event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like low hanging fruit for a record for SEA next Tuesday.  The record is 39 from 1946.  The real shocker I just noticed when looking that up is SEA hasn't had a record low in the first half of October since 1983 and that was the only one since 1974.  Furthermore all of the others were 1961 or earlier.  Pretty incredible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like low hanging fruit for a record for SEA next Tuesday.  The record is 39 from 1946.  The real shocker I just noticed when looking that up is SEA hasn't had a record low in the first half of October since 1983 and that was the only one since 1974.  Furthermore all of the others were 1961 or earlier.  Pretty incredible.

Try OLM.

A forum for the end of the world.

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The table is really set for Monday night.  Unseasonably cold air mass in place, coming off of a cold max on Monday, and totally clear all night.  That should be enough to get all of the trees turning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  The ECMWF has been rock steady in advertising a very chilly morning on Tuesday.  No doubt that 1985 cold snap was a good early October event.

No doubt.   Just no doubt.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Try OLM.

They are all mostly old records too.  For some reason the first half of October has been largely devoid of cold snaps for decades.  1985 was a notable exception and even that is pretty old now.  Only 5 records in that period for OLM since 1989.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

They are all mostly old record too.  For some reason the first half of October has been largely devoid of cold snaps for decades.  1985 was a notable exception.  Only 5 records in that period for OLM since 1989.

That's a significant difference from SEA, though.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Already down to 40 here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

That's a significant difference from SEA, though.

True.  If SEA gets a record on Tuesday that's going to be a pretty big deal regardless.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll never forget the roar in December 2006.  That was just a notch below the Columbus Day Storm.  The name of that storm poses some problems with the liberals BTW.  We might have to rename it.

Good thing whatever that storm was was a non-event here. So whatever stupid name you’re talking about is something we know nothing of. Must not have been that big of a deal.
 

Please keep your agenda off the observation board.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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56 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Blocked and reported

Why? It looks like a western movie.  Is it the song 'Map is real and on fire?" I have heard it before on the Wilderness Lodge music loop from WDW 'source' audio long version which is not available anywhere as YouTube has the newer edition which edited a lot of stuff out:  

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Good thing whatever that storm was was a non-event here. So whatever stupid name you’re talking about is something we know nothing of. Must not have been that big of a deal.

I know that storm! We were on the tail end of it in Silverton. Some large branches of our neighbors tree came down and Dad helped them saw it.  The power went out a few hours in our end of town. The entire town almost lost power.  If the storm was a notch stronger it would've been a different story entirely! 😲😲🛸🛸

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Don’t speak.

Spiderwebs

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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