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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Good thing whatever that storm was was a non-event here. So whatever stupid name you’re talking about is something we know nothing of. Must not have been that big of a deal.
 

Please keep your agenda off the observation board.

You guys have no sense of humor.

BTW...there were two storms being discussed.  My comment was about the Columbus Day Storm which most assuredly hit you down there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, luminen said:

30 degrees here right now. 🥶

Do you actually live there?  If so...I'm jelly.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I'm just in awe at how the models just keep the cold going.  At least another week to 10 days at this point. The 0z ECMWF looks like it's going to be colder for the trough about a week out compared to previous runs, continuing a trend that has been ongoing for several runs now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Weenies in the Eastern half of the country have got to be hating this setup right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Link said:

I know that storm! We were on the tail end of it in Silverton. Some large branches of our neighbors tree came down and Dad helped them saw it.  The power went out a few hours in our end of town. The entire town almost lost power.  If the storm was a notch stronger it would've been a different story entirely! 😲😲🛸🛸

The storm I wish I could have experienced was the storm on the Oregon Coast in 2007 (which locals in Cannon Beach informally called 'the storm of 07.' I did enjoy the weather when I lived there for just under 3 years, including Feb 7th and 8th '14 snowstorm with numerous rain/windstorms that make Seattle look like the Atacama Desert by comparison. But that storm in 2007 knocked out power there for at least a week and the roads north, south, and east were blocked due to downed trees, flooded roads (and Beerman Crk which is locally infamous), and rockslides. Now if a local Tsunami had hit they would have been screwed but thats still a fun event to remember. If you drive from Portland on 26, there used to be several signs indicating replanting due to wind damaged trees. As of a few years ago, there were still fallen trees from that event on the hillsides.

 

EDIT: I'm getting the names mixed up. The one they speak of is the Great Coastal Gale (2007).

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

The storm I wish I could have experienced was the storm on the Oregon Coast in 2007 (which locals in Cannon Beach informally called 'the storm of 07.' I did enjoy the weather when I lived there for just under 3 years, including Feb 7th and 8th '14 snowstorm with numerous rain/windstorms that make Seattle look like the Atacama Desert by comparison. But that storm in 2007 knocked out power there for at least a week and the roads north, south, and east were blocked due to downed trees, flooded roads (and Beerman Crk which is locally infamous), and rockslides. Now if a local Tsunami had hit they would have been screwed but thats still a fun event to remember. If you drive from Portland on 26, there used to be several signs indicating replanting due to wind damaged trees. As of a few years ago, there were still fallen trees from that event on the hillsides.

 

EDIT: I'm getting the names mixed up. The one they speak of is the Great Coastal Gale (2007).

I like the interior a lot more.  A lot colder in the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Disappointing. It's already an unseasonably warm 38 degrees. Was supposed to be a much colder 43 tonight. :)

This thing just keeps overperforming.  SEA is colder than this time last night with a much lower dp than 24 hours ago also.

Just looked at a couple of stations and the I-90 / SR 18 junction is already down to 35 and Lester 33.  Top tier stuff for this early in the evening in early October.  Monday night looks a lot colder than tonight as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The ECMWF keeps the trough(s) in the 7 to 10 day period tucked closer to the coast than previous runs thus colder.  The big change has been keeping southern stream energy more cutoff from the northern branch.  Nice to see that.

EDIT: OMG.  Yet another perfect hit at day 9/10 on this run.  For duration this cold snap is going to be up there for this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The GFS ensemble has trended much cooler for the third week of October now.  This month is really unfolding to be something special for cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS ensemble has trended much cooler for the third week of October now.  This month is really unfolding to be something special for cold.

Might be the first cooler and wetter than normal month here in quite some time. Breath of fresh air.

Our coldest temps of the coming Oct-Mar will be during the final week of this month. Similar to last year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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17 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Temp here was 38° at midnight, up to 42°, system incoming. 

It will stay clear almost the entire night here.  Currently 37 here.  It was 39 at this time last night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The EPS shows and an absolute beast of a trough just off the coast during week two.  Looks like we could go from cold and relatively dry to cold and wet.

Current trends keep pushing everything eastward and more directly over us in the home stretch however.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The ECMWF shows a low of 36 for SEA on Tuesday which would be their coldest min in the first half of October since 1960.  Interestingly that model has been running a tad high on min temps for this cold snap so far.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a low of 36 for SEA on Tuesday which would be their coldest min in the first half of October since 1960.  Interestingly that model has been running a tad high on min temps for this cold snap so far.

It got down to 34F on 10/10 2019.

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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It got down to 34F on 10/10 2019.

Yeah October 2019 was much more impressive got down to 32 on 10/10 here and had 4 lows in the 30s by this point. I know my location doesn’t represent the whole region…but we still haven’t even dipped into the 30s yet low of 41 this morning. We even had a low of 36 on 10/1/19. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Might be the first cooler and wetter than normal month here in quite some time. Breath of fresh air.

Our coldest temps of the coming Oct-Mar will be during the final week of this month. Similar to last year.

We have a long way to go for the “wetter” part. I have a feeling the north/south gradient will continue on and our friends to the north will end up pretty wet when it’s all said and done, but we will end up quite a bit drier than normal. 

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3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

47 and cloudy here. 

Warmed up pretty quickly with cloud cover. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Do you actually live there?  If so...I'm jelly.

Yes sir. I wouldn't put in a fake location. ;)

Low was 24F this morning with frost. Yesterday was 22F with a thicker frost.

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Weenies in the Eastern half of the country have got to be hating this setup right now.

I’ve seen some winter forecasts suggesting the eastern parts of Canada will see an early start to winter this year come November.  Things will probably flip for a time

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Averages sure drop off quickly this time of year. Average highs here drop below 60F on this date (59.9F).  And a week from now the averages are down to 57/42

I believe October is the month in this region that has the greatest change in mean daily temperatures from one end of the month to the other.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I believe October is the month in this region that has the greatest change in mean daily temperatures from one end of the month to the other.

Makes sense given the monthly seasonal lag and how Sept has the largest decrease in total daylight.

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35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

7D8CB1C8-94AD-42D5-B6F9-3C4597AE8B7F.thumb.jpeg.1daec52465fbe3bd881c1caef8f4d99e.jpeg

EA85E57E-7360-4E29-93F9-E255A10E1973.thumb.jpeg.ce196a98bf2377d511d745cef3684474.jpeg

Went up to Rattlesnake Ridge very early around 6 today. Good view of the marine stratus scraping the mountaintops + a cool dude down at the bottom

You probably know all the details.... but that "lake" disappears every fall and winter and then fills up in the spring.   Its actually the unintended consequence of the Cedar Lake reservoir (now Chester Morse Lake) being built upstream back in 1915 when the town of Moncton was flooded and then abandoned.   You can find building foundations there during times when its almost totally empty in mid-winter.

It looks so different in the summer... but those 100-year old stumps make for lots of obstacles under the water.    This is my son diving off a rock there a couple years ago... there are no stumps in this area making it a popular spot to jump into the lake.

11416369_836351069766436_6645175308704762617_o.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Weenies in the Eastern half of the country have got to be hating this setup right now.

This is actually an okay pattern here in the autumn. Plenty of rain/storm chances and not too warm. No point in blowing the cold load now only to have it flip warm in the winter.

Plus there’s the “October snow curse”. 😂 Obviously a coincidence, but still..going back to the 1800s, every year with snowfall here in October has been followed by a crap winter. Most recent example was 2011/12. Don’t wanna mess around with that.

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You probably know all the details.... but that "lake" disappears every fall and winter and then fills up in the spring.   Its actually the unintended consequence of the Cedar Lake reservoir (now Chester Morse Lake) being built upstream back in 1915 when the town of Moncton was flooded and then abandoned.   You can find building foundations there during times when its almost totally empty in mid-winter.

It looks so different in the summer... but those 100-year old stumps make for lots of obstacles under the water.    This is my son diving off a rock there a couple years ago... there are no stumps in this area making it a popular spot to jump into the lake.

11416369_836351069766436_6645175308704762617_o.jpg

I did know the lake emptied regularly, but I did not know it was manmade. Very interesting.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah October 2019 was much more impressive got down to 32 on 10/10 here and had 4 lows in the 30s by this point. I know my location doesn’t represent the whole region…but we still haven’t even dipped into the 30s yet low of 41 this morning. We even had a low of 36 on 10/1/19. 

This cold snap is far from over.  For persistence this will be one of the all time greats for this early.  The 12z GFS shows 10 more days of well below normal temps.  2019 was just a quick shot.

I'm on a roll here.  39, 35, 36 for the past three lows.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is actually an okay pattern here in the autumn. Plenty of rain/storm chances and not too warm. No point in blowing the cold load now only to have it flip warm in the winter.

Plus there’s the “October snow curse”. 😂 Obviously a coincidence, but still..going back to the 1800s, every year with snowfall here in October has been followed by a crap winter. Most recent example was 2011/12. Don’t wanna mess around with that.

True, but I'm sure people who like cold are a bit annoyed at this point.  Some parts of the country are really torching.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I believe October is the month in this region that has the greatest change in mean daily temperatures from one end of the month to the other.

Yeah...the drop is pretty incredible this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

True, but I'm sure people who like cold are a bit annoyed at this point.  Some parts of the country are really torching.

And then it will suddenly flip and they will have bitter cold and snow.    Minnesota is torching but I doubt anyone is worried about winter not coming there.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This cold snap is far from over.  For persistence this will be one of the all time greats for this early.  The 12z GFS shows 10 more days of well below normal temps.  2019 was just a quick shot.

I'm on a roll here.  39, 35, 36 for the past three lows.  

2019 was chilly the entire month besides one wet week during the middle of the month…wasn’t really a one shot deal. Overall so far that month was more impressive than this one. Idk not too excited about it just looks consistently chilly with a few decently cold mins nothing too exciting IMO. Gfs and euro have 1 low in the 30s here over the next 10 days. Over half the mins in 2019 we’re in the 30s we still haven’t even gotten there yet. Still time to impress me but it hasn’t yet just my opinion. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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A lot of cold ensemble members even in the long range.  In fact we never get close to going above the normal line on the 850 graph.

I also have to admit I was wrong last night when I was talking about the record lows for SEA the first half of October.  They did tie a record from 1946 on the 10th in 2019, but the site I was looking at still shows 1946 as the record holder.  That having been said record lows the first half of the month have been extremely rare in the past 60 years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dropped down to 36 this morning after a low of 34 and 37 in the mornings prior.

I can't wait to see what we come up with on Tuesday.  I think 30 is possible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2019 was chilly the entire month besides one wet week during the middle of the month…wasn’t really a one shot deal. Overall so far that month was more impressive than this one. Idk not too excited about it just looks consistently chilly with a few decently cold mins nothing too exciting IMO. Gfs and euro have 1 low in the 30s here over the next 10 days. Over half the mins in 2019 we’re in the 30s we still haven’t even gotten there yet. Still time to impress me but it hasn’t yet just my opinion. 

This is just one shot cold after the other.  Hard to not be impressed, but to each his own.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Another thing to watch is how many consecutive highs below 60 we get.  Could be in record territory on that for this early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This cold snap is far from over.  For persistence this will be one of the all time greats for this early.  The 12z GFS shows 10 more days of well below normal temps.  2019 was just a quick shot.

I'm on a roll here.  39, 35, 36 for the past three lows.  

2019 and 2009 were much colder.

1009190008.jpg

1009190034.jpg

1009190012a.jpg

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Facebook memories popped up today from this day in 2014... leaves were much more advanced then and quite brilliant.    Unfortunately that winter did not work out so well. 

1978460_706626772738867_6825380281027454700_o.jpg

10620247_706626642738880_7004498859686728566_o.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll never forget the roar in December 2006.  That was just a notch below the Columbus Day Storm.  The name of that storm poses some problems with the liberals BTW.  We might have to rename it.

Thing about the 2006 storm, while many lost power, the highest winds were isolated. CDS legit hit the entire PNW with hurricane strength winds.

Wasn't higher than 55-60 in a lot of the PDX Metro area. Somehow we managed a full 24 hours without power in Landmark Apts (Hillsboro). 

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12 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Good thing whatever that storm was was a non-event here. So whatever stupid name you’re talking about is something we know nothing of. Must not have been that big of a deal.
 

Please keep your agenda off the observation board.

Trust me, he's not pushing an "agenda". You'll see social media in a few days be riddled with comments like "why did we name a storm after that arsehole" or something along those lines. People hate Columbus and it has little to do with politics. So we make jokes about what we could rename it. Some very long name that sounds funny when you say it.

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