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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow.  That sounds pretty awful.

I have serious anxiety issues as well.  It took me a good two weeks to get comfortable in my new job that I got a month ago.  Just stupid little things set off my anxiety and it gets to be a serious bummer.  If you haven't done it already you should get some kind of medication for it..  I only take very small amounts, but it knocks the edge off.  With such small amounts it has very limited side effects.

Maybe some CBD gummies rather than pharmaceutical drugs?

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

True.  The models have been struggling with placement on that day 8 trough anyway.  Very tricky progression.

Big picture though I like what October has looked like.  Hopefully we can get it to repeat the pattern with more intensity in November December or January.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think I would move in your case.  I couldn't live like that.

It’s a horrible predicament. I’ve lived in this nieghboorhood my whole life and don’t feel safe here anymore. I get an amazing deal on rent for how nice my nieghboorhood is…this is home to me I love it here and I feel like I’m being forced out of my home by a lunatic that I’m totally unprotected from it’s a horrible thing. But anyways I don’t want to rant about it all day this is a weather forum sorry y’all. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Currently back home in Tigard but will be heading back to Corvallis tomorrow.

3 pounds of beef went into the oven this time. Roommate and neighbors are gonna love this! Best batch yet!

64F7524E-EBC5-4458-82C1-CE2BE4B9D15D.thumb.jpeg.73417bf512638a332d2ae43ecdf68aab.jpeg

gross dumb and dumber GIF

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Even here we don’t get snow every year. I have considered moving to Montana with my mom in the butte area to start over and to live in a much more interesting climate. Most people wouldn’t move just based on the weather in a region but I’m not most people 😂

You'd have to get used to almost no transition between Winter and Summer ;)

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

That’s only 3 hour precipitation. 48 hours isn’t much different though.

image.thumb.png.ab62eb9c40cc792780e13074822bd113.png

 

Everybody kept telling he how wet the models were. About that…

I was just showing that there is a period when there is almost no precip across the entire lower 48... sort of interesting.

This run is basically dry for us for most of week 2.   That would be really nice at this point.   It would be great to have a week to enjoy some beautiful October weather.   Before the trees are all bare and its raining every day and the gloom settles in for good.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just showing that there is a period when there is almost no precip across the entire lower 48... sort of interesting.

This run is basically dry for us for most of week 2.   That would be really nice at this point.   It would be great to have a week to enjoy some beautiful October weather.   Before the trees are all bare and its raining every day and the gloom settles in for good.

I understand why a lot of people would like that. Down here, we can’t keep affording to have below normal precipitation. The couple of over-producing storms in September are meaningless in the scheme of things. I cannot root for anything other than wet, wet, wet. Besides the benefit to our ecosystem, that’s the type of weather I enjoy. 

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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I understand why a lot of people would like that. Down here, we can’t keep affording to have below normal precipitation. The couple of over-producing storms in September are meaningless in the scheme of things. I cannot root for anything other than wet, wet, wet. Besides the benefit to our ecosystem, that’s the type of weather I enjoy. 

Well-timed precip in the late spring and summer matters more.   Its going to rain plenty over the next 6 months.    Portland could have 100 inches of rain between now and March and then still be a dry wasteland of dying trees if its 95 degrees and sunny all summer.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Currently back home in Tigard but will be heading back to Corvallis tomorrow.

3 pounds of beef went into the oven this time. Roommate and neighbors are gonna love this! Best batch yet!

64F7524E-EBC5-4458-82C1-CE2BE4B9D15D.thumb.jpeg.73417bf512638a332d2ae43ecdf68aab.jpeg

Did you cure it or just brine and dry?

I currently have 5# in a dry cure/brine, set to go into the smoker in the morning.

Curing with Tender Quick makes it shelf stable without refrigeration even though it rarely lasts long enough!!!

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And the ECMWF is back to showing the day 7 / 8 trough being closer and cooler again.  The possible interaction with that southern branch system is giving the models fits with that one.  It's kind of a big deal how that trough plays out, because the models agree there will be a considerable cold pool in play.  If it goes right we get a probable three day or so extension on the well below normal temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Don’t worry guys I’m still alive. 

Might be the one we've been waiting for.  Maybe....

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The ECMWF ends on a very interesting note.  Intense trough just off the coast with a mega Aleutian / western GOA block behind it.  Could end up with almost no window for warmth if it's correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Considerably cooler ECMWF run vs the 12z.  The beat rolls on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Last frame of the EC for Tuesday Oct 19 at dinnertime.

DC07604A-1B70-45C6-BC14-524560E0856C.png

B4779D4C-3356-4860-8293-46663EB3BAE1.png

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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I think all I saw for Saturday for temperatures was 58 or so while I was working on the eastside. It got a bit windy for a bit just after sunset, but not so much that it knocked any branches down - just a bunch more leaves. 

Had a low of 40 in the morning. Probably won't be too long before the first frost. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Rain has started.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Models continue to look dry and seasonal. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Even Central WA or Spokane would do the trick.

Spokane yes, but somewhere like Tri Cities or other spots get snow and rain shadowed. They did get snow in Feb but some years get very little. On the other hand, the dust storms are fun. 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The deer were as happy as Jim when the wind turned to a cool northerly breeze which brought some leaves down into the driveway area…They were munching away when I went out to grab something out of my truck. 

1E119509-73E3-48F5-9E67-F9F9E105217D.jpeg

Jesse would have downvoted this.🥲

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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