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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  The numeric data I've seen suggests a weak and short lived minus anomaly at 50mb.

What data is that?

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea how the forecasters at Weatherbell managed to come up with a warm west / cold east forecast for this winter.  Pretty daring totally ignoring La Nina climo.  Their forecast falls into the least likely camp to verify.  If this winter is ruined for us I suspect it would be too flat of a ridge over the NE Pacific / GOA as opposed to a ridge along the West Coast.  I can't even think of a second year Nina that had a Western ridge problem.  1999-2000 was a disaster, but that was horrible for the entire country, and not caused by a Western ridge.

2017/18 would have been a ridgy winter if it weren’t for that SSW in late Jan/Feb.

That was also a -QBO winter with significant injection of wildfire smoke into the stratosphere, similar to this year.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Very interestingly the last time we had a solidly cold October with a La Nina was 2008.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that just now.  A cold October with a La Nina is usually a pretty solid bet for a good winter...especially second and third year Ninas.

People who are not fans of cold Octobers should be rooting for this one being it's a second year Nina.  Years with cold a cold October during a second year Nina were 1950, 1955, 1971, 1984, and 2008.  All good ones.

There’s actually no decipherable correlation between October and winter temperatures, in any ENSO phase.

November is another story.

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Already down to 47 tonight.  Fired up the wood stove for the first time tonight.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

There’s actually no decipherable correlation between October and winter temperatures, in any ENSO phase.

November is another story.

The numbers I'm looking at certainly show there is a strong correlation.  Looking at distinctly cold Octobers with a Nina there is no doubt it heavily favors a cold outcome for winter here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Ensembles - 850mb Temps/Precip

Portland

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=0

Seattle

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=0

This is a big time cold snap coming up.  Looks like there might be some continental flavor at times.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Very interestingly the last time we had a solidly cold October with a La Nina was 2008.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that just now.  A cold October with a La Nina is usually a pretty solid bet for a good winter...especially second and third year Ninas.

People who are not fans of cold Octobers should be rooting for this one being it's a second year Nina.  Years with cold a cold October during a second year Nina were 1950, 1955, 1971, 1984, and 2008.  All good ones.

We need late October in to most of November to be dry as well and then nil to no mountain snow until the models start showing lowland snow a la 2008.  That was just a weird winter.

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gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39.thumb.png.ee6515b0ba3e4f5272de225ada1cc91f.png

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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202304525_download(55).thumb.png.3e62da8f1cf8d89bd7a5ef41f7deb0e9.png

Wow, next Thursday looks absolutely gorgeous. 55/35 with tons of sun and a northerly breeze. Literally a perfect Seattle day for 99% of the population.

For me it's a tad too cloudless, but that's just my taste ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

2017/18 would have been a ridgy winter if it weren’t for that SSW in late Jan/Feb.

That was also a -QBO winter with significant injection of wildfire smoke into the stratosphere, similar to this year.

As it is 2017-18 turned out to be a decent winter for us.  Solidly chilly December and then February cold and snow.  Certainly not what Weatherbell is forecasting for this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We need late October in to most of November to be dry as well and then nil to no mountain snow until the models start showing lowland snow a la 2008.  That was just a weird winter.

It was an interesting progression.   It had the classic cold October / warm November combo that so often works for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

202304525_download(55).thumb.png.3e62da8f1cf8d89bd7a5ef41f7deb0e9.png

Wow, next Thursday looks absolutely gorgeous. 55/35 with tons of sun and a northerly breeze. Literally a perfect Seattle day for 99% of the population.

For me it's a tad too cloudless, but that's just my taste ;)

My absolute favorite in October.  We had plenty of rain last month...time to get cold with frost at night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Deep trough on the EURO long range.

The rest of the run is nice too.  I'm really liking this.  Some of the analogs popping up are years that ultimately had an Arctic outbreak in late October.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The rest of the run is nice too.  I'm really liking this.  Some of the analogs popping up are years that ultimately had an Arctic outbreak in late October.

Would make sense as that's when our coldest temps are now.

  • Popcorn 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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That is one potent cold front on the 0z ECMWF.  It shows some places with late afternoon temps in the upper 40s on day 10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would make sense as that's when our coldest temps are now.

It's a La Nina.  Cold in October is good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The numbers I'm looking at certainly show there is a strong correlation.  Looking at distinctly cold Octobers with a Nina there is no doubt it heavily favors a cold outcome for winter here.

La Niña generally favors cooler than average winters out there. You have to separate that low frequency component first.

Cold October/Niña is no more likely to precede a colder than average winter than warm October/Niña, particularly in the satellite era. In fact, some of the warmest Niña Octobers (such as 1988) preceded the most anomalous cold outbreaks in DJF.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

La Niña generally favors cooler than average winters out there. You have to separate that low frequency component first.

Cold October/Niña is no more likely to precede a colder than average winter than warm October/Niña. In fact, some of the warmest Niña Octobers (such as 1988) preceded the most anomalous cold outbreaks in DJF.

Yeah at the end of the day it's just a reflection of a solid Niña background state. That should be reason enough to celebrate, since a properly working -ENSO pattern over our area is colder and wetter than usual, which believe it or not works out in our favor when it comes to lowland snow.

I suspect the reason warmer Niña Novembers are strongly associated with colder winters is simply due to getting warmer patterns out of the way before the best time of the winter comes through. Or maybe it runs a bit deeper; perhaps the very same Niña background state that produces colder Octobers and Decembers/Januaries produces warmer Novembers for whatever reason. Either way, I'm not really paying too much attention to October, and if November is warm and dry, then hoooooo boy you know I'll be excited.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As it is 2017-18 turned out to be a decent winter for us.  Solidly chilly December and then February cold and snow.  Certainly not what Weatherbell is forecasting for this winter.

I have little faith in mapping of projected seasonal temperature departures. So much can happen on the subseasonal scale to throw it off completely. A few weeks is all it takes.

As things stand now, for what little it’s worth, I favor the early to middle part of winter for cold over the US, generally speaking. But it could be that the coldest departures in the PNW region occur later in the winter, well after the most significant cold anomalies have abated across (the majority of) the continent.

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And then there's 1955/56. Sometimes you're cold in November, then cold the rest of the winter. Our atmosphere is a chaotic thing.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Also, interesting to note the nature of the medium-frequency wave stations of late (ridging across the GOA/NPAC and NE-Canada). This is the inverse of the pattern most commonly observed from 2013-18.

Historically, this type of pattern has tended to precede high latitude blocking in November/December.

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A pleasant 46F and clear. Beautiful stars.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Got the night shift going! Just had my 1AM smoke.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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6 mornings from now.

GFS Temp.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not an ideal outcome at the ballpark but omg what a perfect night!!! The clear skies and crisp autumn night just made it feel like what October baseball is all about. Perfect weather!! 

D4C48121-CC62-4AFE-B05D-6DB85EB17DCF.jpeg

Neck and neck with my Blue Jays! It is going to be a heck of a finish for that 2nd WC spot! I wouldn't be mad though if the M's grabbed it over the Red Sox. C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 1 hour 5 minutes

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6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Not an ideal outcome at the ballpark but omg what a perfect night!!! The clear skies and crisp autumn night just made it feel like what October baseball is all about. Perfect weather!! 

D4C48121-CC62-4AFE-B05D-6DB85EB17DCF.jpeg

Just slightly less than an ideal outcome.  🙁

My sons are going tonight with some friends.    Should be another nice night weatherwise.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

We need late October in to most of November to be dry as well and then nil to no mountain snow until the models start showing lowland snow a la 2008.  That was just a weird winter.

That Fall was wet though or at least normal range give or take. There wasn't more than a full dry week between rains.

I specifically remember Flood Warnings in November that year. 

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

La Niña generally favors cooler than average winters out there. You have to separate that low frequency component first.

Cold October/Niña is no more likely to precede a colder than average winter than warm October/Niña, particularly in the satellite era. In fact, some of the warmest Niña Octobers (such as 1988) preceded the most anomalous cold outbreaks in DJF.

I'll have to put up the numbers and let people decide for themselves.  It's totally provable I'm right.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Got down to 42 this morning before clouds/fog rolled in. 48 now. 

Same here and SEA dropped to 46.  You know we're on a roll when we have below normal temps with above normal 850s.  This could be a legit cold October.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wow!  The 12z GFS shows three really nippy nights in a row on this run.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Here’s why I am always pessimistic about rain. We lost 3-4” in the last 48 hours. 

 

image.png.b445c6b760038c9fccbd6906f5260cd4.png

 

image.thumb.png.ca2bb5e1f1eb4eaa6e92f2d18733ee0c.png

Comparing 16 day maps for just about anything will help the pessimistic go all pessimisty.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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