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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

53/39 today fairly chilly. 

51/37 here today.  Big time minus for the day.  The low at SEA today was 39 which is tomorrow's record.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Cohen’s thoughts and blog on the SSW peaking around October 25. Seems to suggest early SSW’s in Oct/Nov will lead to something very significant during mid-winter. This is quite exciting. Definitely worth the read. 
 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Also this thread regarding weak SSW in Oct/Nov leading to a more significant one later. 
 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

51/37 here today.  Big time minus for the day.  The low at SEA today was 39 which is tomorrow's record.

I’m guessing you hit 30 tomorrow morning. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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10 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Since we're talking about September snow, this is Cheney, WA in late September 2019. 

That field makes my eyes hurt.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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From the satellite view I'd say some clouds will be rolling in here later tonight to moderate our temps here in the northern areas of Puget Sound.   My first actual freeze will be delayed I'm afraid.  I'm thinking a low of 34 is in order here.  

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4 minutes ago, Acer said:

From the satellite view I'd say some clouds will be rolling in here later tonight to moderate our temps here in the northern areas of Puget Sound.   My first actual freeze will be delayed I'm afraid.  I'm thinking a low of 34 is in order here.  

Yeah, if you look at the map TacomaWaWx pasted about an hour ago it’s pretty clear us northerners are going to get clouded out of a good frost chance tonight.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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19 minutes ago, Acer said:

From the satellite view I'd say some clouds will be rolling in here later tonight to moderate our temps here in the northern areas of Puget Sound.   My first actual freeze will be delayed I'm afraid.  I'm thinking a low of 34 is in order here.  

ECMWF shows the incoming high clouds will hold off until 4 or 5 a.m. across western WA.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yeah, if you look at the map TacomaWaWx pasted about an hour ago it’s pretty clear us northerners are going to get clouded out of a good frost chance tonight.

Yeah I just looked at it.  Lows in the upper 30’s would mean a pretty early presence of clouds.  It looks like a lot of areas should drop more than that before they move in.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows the incoming high clouds will hold off until 4 or 5 a.m. across western WA.  

Yeah the satellite view looks like a pretty late entrance for the clouds.  Could get close to freezing here if it’s 4 or 5am

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After today my month to date average is 49.7.  That would be cold for an average for the full month of October.

You can just see, feel, and taste it's going to be really cold tonight.  Probably 32 or lower in a lot of places.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m guessing you hit 30 tomorrow morning. 

I think you have a great shot at 32.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Acer said:

Yeah I just looked at it.  Lows in the upper 30’s would mean a pretty early presence of clouds.  It looks like a lot of areas should drop more than that before they move in.

The clouds will probably be very thin until sunrise or later.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:


 

A very warm November after a cold October is even better.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I think people are being way too pessimistic about the cloud situation tonight.  The GFS doesn't show any until after 12z and many times high clouds are so thin you can barely see them even when the models make them look like a big deal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Yesss!  That cold shot on Sunday is looking really solid on the latest model runs.  Looks like they have come to a decision on that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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After today SEA will drop below the average temp for the first half of October 2019.  We are going to leave that one in the rear view mirror.  So far the two coldest October first halves I've found are 1946 and 1949.  Looks like we could beat 1949, but probably not 1946.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

After today SEA will drop below the average temp for the first half of October 2019.  We are going to leave that one in the rear view mirror.  So far the two coldest October first halves I've found are 1946 and 1949.  Looks like we could beat 1949, but probably not 1946.

If you have property in Liberty can you not go there and hang out for December or January and enjoy the weather you so badly want here?

I know.  Maybe a job and a family get in the way but man, Liberty sounds cool.  I think it's kind of dry there though so maybe not the snow that you would want but definitely KOLD.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

After today SEA will drop below the average temp for the first half of October 2019.  We are going to leave that one in the rear view mirror.  So far the two coldest October first halves I've found are 1946 and 1949.  Looks like we could beat 1949, but probably not 1946.

We had highs in the 30s here during the first half of October 1949, won’t happen this year. Western Oregon should stay clear tonight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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December 2008

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What would you rather have, a November 1985 redux, or a December 2008 redux? 

December 2013

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What would you rather have, a November 1985 redux, or a December 2008 redux? 

I will take Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022 and Feb 2022 since that is what we are gonna get.

I will reverse psychology the shitt out of every snow possibility I can though to work in my favor!!

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I will take Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022 and Feb 2022 since that is what we are gonna get.

I will reverse psychology the shitt out of every snow possibility I can though to work in my favor!!

I find it’s best if I don’t even think there’s a rug that can be pulled regardless of the models.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

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