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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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Today might only hit upper 40's! In the first half of the month that's cold.

Coolest highs first 15 days of October..
2020 - 60
2019 - 52
2018 - 52
2017 - 50 (70's mid month)
2016 - 45***
2015 - 58
2014 - 54
2013 - 53
2012 - 64
2011 - 43***
2010 - 58

2011 and 2016 win points for the earliest days <50, though 2019 was the coolest mean I think.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This is quite an impressive airmass. With the low of 39 this morning, we were in the record lows territory. Tonight should produce some record lows for many places. 
 

SEA is also running an impressive streak right now for the 1st half of Oct.  yesterday was 7 straight days of highs in the 50s and 8 out of 11. All of Oct is at or below normal for the lows. 
 

This streak looks to keep going at least for the next week. Going to be a cold month. 

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

First frost of the season!!!

Trash Pandas are really going to be scrounging about for food soon. :)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2021 never ceases to amaze. I get a fog on July 28 but can't get fog in October.

The 3 years of drought we had 2013-2015 produced a lot of Fall fogs (including all-day fog). I'm starting to forget when I last had one down here.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, AlTahoe said:

7:00am it was 45F and dead calm. 30 minutes later it was 32F and a full on blizzard with a lake effect snow band sitting right over us. Very dynamic little cold front. 

SmartSelect_20211011-084735_MyRadar.jpg

How much snow do you have (or think) you may have at this moment? Can't wait to see your snow photos. A friend moved to Reno last month and took a photo at 7am with a few flakes, nothing sticking then 45 mins later the ground was pretty well covered.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

7:00am it was 45F and dead calm. 30 minutes later it was 32F and a full on blizzard with a lake effect snow band sitting right over us. Very dynamic little cold front. 

SmartSelect_20211011-084735_MyRadar.jpg

Oh man!! Look like we completely missed out on this fun… we had initially planned for the Tahoe trip this week but canceled due to the smoke/fire down there over the summer. Would’ve been fun to experience this. Believe you mentioned something to this effect when I was messaging you. 

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How much snow do you have (or think) you may have at this moment? Can't wait to see your snow photos. A friend moved to Reno last month and took a photo at 7am with a few flakes, nothing sticking then 45 mins later the ground was pretty well covered.

About an inch right now. 2 miles away on the front face of Heavenly it looks like they have about 3" so far. 

https://www.skiheavenly.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

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Dropped to 37F here just before 6 am before the clouds moved in.

The webcams up at Paradise look just as beautiful as the name suggests.

Rainierwebcam_20211011.thumb.jpeg.c8540a77dac291d263f1fa3fe3846a9b.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

7:00am it was 45F and dead calm. 30 minutes later it was 32F and a full on blizzard with a lake effect snow band sitting right over us. Very dynamic little cold front. 

SmartSelect_20211011-084735_MyRadar.jpg

That's cool! Never heard of lake effect snow off of Lake Tahoe before. Does that happen very often?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

7:00am it was 45F and dead calm. 30 minutes later it was 32F and a full on blizzard with a lake effect snow band sitting right over us. Very dynamic little cold front. 

SmartSelect_20211011-084735_MyRadar.jpg

Do u know normally get snow this early?

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Got down to 40* here this morning. 

Was reading a long article late last night about a stratospheric warming event taking place now. It is really unusual to have one starting so soon in October. It goes on to talk about what it might due to the polar vortex which is forming.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Interesting stats on our first low in the 30s and first freeze stats in fall over the last 15 years. You can really see just how 2019 was way ahead of every other year…then you’ve got 2016 which was a really late bloomer but took off in December. 2018 and 2008 were also a late bloomers but ended up being phenomenal. 
2005 10/27 (38) 11/28 (32)

2006 10/30 (35) 11/27 (27)

2007 10/25 (39)  11/2  (32)

2008 10/11  (37) 12/13 (31) 

2009 10/11  (39) 11/14 (32)

2010 10/17  (39) 11/21 (31)

2011  11/1    (36)  11/6  (32)

2012  11/8   (37)  11/10 (31)

2013 10/29 (37)  11/23 (30)

2014 11/11  (35)   11/13 (32)

2015 11/4   (38)   11/26 (29)

2016 11/18 (38)   12/6   (32)

2017 10/14 (38)  11/5    (32)

2018 11/7   (36)   12/6   (28)

2019 10/1   (36)   10/10 (32)

2020 10/22 (38)  11/9   (30)

2021  10/11 (39) first freeze TBD. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Feeling left out as usual. Got down to 41F and will get down into the upper 30s tonight...maybe.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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2 hours ago, Geos said:

Got down to 40* here this morning. 

Was reading a long article late last night about a stratospheric warming event taking place now. It is really unusual to have one starting so soon in October. It goes on to talk about what it might due to the polar vortex which is forming.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/

Nice write up that most will grasp easily. Only thing I take issue with is the description of the processes culminating in the formation of the PV. It’s actually a thermal wind response to differential heating, not a “pressure drop”. Which is then perpetuated by the dissociation of O3 within the frigid PV environment, further sharpening said thermal gradient and accelerating zonal wind.

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6 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2005 is showing up as an analog. 🤮

610analog.off.gif

814analog.off.gif

Lots of +EPO/zonal winters in there. Which would be a canonical response under -QBO/Niña.

Can it be trumped?

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

La Palma has been erupting nonstop for over 3 weeks now.

 

La Palma 1949 >>> Jan 1950. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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25 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2005 is showing up as an analog. 🤮

610analog.off.gif

814analog.off.gif

At least that winter was wet? ☔🚰

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Oct 27, 1971. So no not even close to a September snowfall.

Even here, snow in September is almost unheard of. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Even for Denver at a mile high have an average 1st snow of Oct. 18…. Its earliest snowfall is Sept 3, 1961. Quite rare.

 

21DE4148-FEC7-4809-8287-9D4DCAC92BA2.jpeg

I remember September 24, 1985 in the Twin Cities very clearly... watching it snow out my school window in the middle of the afternoon.  It completely covered the ground for a couple hours.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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