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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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51/33 today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

2+ inches an hour all night... and into the next day.     

This was around noon on 2/12/2019 when the snow was letting up and after we dug out... and right before we made our escape.    My wife was trying to dig out some of our small trees and could not navigate the yard... it was almost up to her shoulders.

 

20190212-113623.jpg

3 feet in 1 day is fukkin nuts. That’s like something you see in the lake effect belts or a top tier nor’easter deformation band.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim certainly gets more snow than us, even though I’m 700’ higher. His higher latitude and most importantly C-zone, give him a major advantage there. Also he does get some seepage through snoqualmie pass. 
 

BUT, we definitely have significantly more frost/freezes. 

The only time that seepage is a good thing!

Anyway I had a underwhelming low of 35. 

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The benefits of radiational cooling. Makes us look more impressive in the cold department but rarely translates to any significant Arctic airmasses, which tend to stall right around the 45th parallel.

No sub-freezing highs since the 16-17 winter speaks for itself. Also our coldest temp last year being 23F on October 26...no one else has had it that bad in the interior PNW except for maybe Roseburg and Medford.

Yes, yes: I know. You routinely get frost in October and can get below 0°F in the winter. It might as well be Redding or Sacramento.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

3 feet in 1 day is fukkin nuts. That’s like something you see in the lake effect belts or a top tier nor’easter deformation band.

And there was about a foot of snow on the ground before the storm started! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This morning's low of 29.7 is my first freeze of the season, about 2 weeks ahead of average. Average is October 29th, and this is the 2nd earliest first freeze we have recorded.
2019 was the earliest, on October 1st, and by the 12th we had already recorded four 32- lows.
The 29.7 also breaks the daily record of 34, also set in 2019.

32.jpg

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes sir.     If you remember... the National Guard was called in to help North Bend dig out.     While we barely made our escape through tunnels of snow to get to Hawaii for 2 weeks.     An amazing amount of snow was still left when we returned.   And it was rock hard after days of cold sunshine and east wind.   We got some insight into the process of glacier building firsthand.    😀

Nothing like 3 feet in a day-- but I did get around 20 inches in the hills in a 12 hour period on 1/10-1/11, 2017. Was quite something with some 3-4 inch an hour rates.

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--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You’ve quickly surpassed TWL as biggest weenie status in little time. It’s not even close 😂

He's not wrong-- I do think it's natural to be skeptical when most of the real wet runs have a tendency to dry out in the mid-range haha

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

So 4 feet on the ground! 😝

Well... there is compaction that happens pretty quickly with that much snow.   But there was definitely 40+ inches inches on the ground on the morning of 2/12.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... there is compaction that happens pretty quickly with that much snow.   But there was definitely 40+ inches inches on the ground on the morning of 2/12.

I think that happened in the Jan 2017 storm. Probably 20-22" in the event but 18.4" on the yard stick.

Wow. 40 inches on the ground is like 1950's Klamath Falls depth. Depths of 30" or over happen about every couple decades.

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I think that happened in the Jan 2017 storm. Probably 20-22" in the event but 18.4" on the yard stick.

Wow. 40 inches on the ground is like 1950's Klamath Falls depth. Depths of 30" or over happen about every couple decades.

We got close to that by Christmas Day in 2008 as well.     That was not one storm... just an endless parade of storms with no warming in between.     Then it rained for a week straight... literally did not stop.    And there was massive flooding and the road we use to get to NB was completely washed away.    Fun times.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Requiem said:

He's not wrong-- I do think it's natural to be skeptical when most of the real wet runs have a tendency to dry out in the mid-range haha

It’s not unusual for rain totals to come down and be refined over time though those of us who’ve been here awhile know that. Can’t just look at the 10 or 16 day chart and expect all that to fall if you do…that’s on you for being disappointed. There’s been some over performing systems down there too and it’s not like it has been bone dry “desert” conditions there. Some of the flak he’s getting from some of us for being a mega weenie is certainly warranted. Just had a top 10 wet September down there. He also seems to have unrealistic expectations for the first half of October in terms of rainfall versus climo…it’s not peak wet season yet it being somewhat dry right now isn’t unusual. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

He's not wrong-- I do think it's natural to be skeptical when most of the real wet runs have a tendency to dry out in the mid-range haha

Thanks for that. I'm rarely wrong about it, but everybody gets annoyed at my negativity. Especially since we had two over-performing events in September for the first time in many, many months that I downplayed beforehand. I understand. I like to vent though.

Just like how @rsktkr said he/she watches every extended GFS ensemble run for hints of snowfall, I look at almost every run of every model for QPF. That's what I personally care about the most. Some of you want wind, snow, cold... whatever, and I want a boatload of rain.

If you had your favorite weather event consistently teased with very minimal verification, you would be frustrated too. It's not like all of the cards have to align perfectly for us to get rain like they do for big snow events, windstorms, or even artic air intrusion, but for some reason, we very reliably underperform. 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We got close to that by Christmas Day in 2008 as well.     That was not one storm... just an endless parade of storms with no warming in between.     Then it rained for a week straight... literally did not stop.    And there was massive flooding and the road we use to get to NB was completely washed away.    Fun times.

lol New Years Day 2009 was the about the wettest I've seen a year start out on the first day. Considering PDX/HIO was in the 50's it had to have rained up at my elevation. I noticed I'm never about 8-10 or so degrees cooler than the west sides in a straight westerly flow. Poured for hours in Hillsboro.

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55 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes, yes: I know. You routinely get frost in October and can get below 0°F in the winter. It might as well be Redding or Sacramento.

In fairness to Tiger, Redding has had a few good years of snow lately. They have scored perhaps more than his location, controlling for latitude.

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28 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

 

Thanks for that. I'm rarely wrong about it, but everybody gets annoyed at my negativity. Especially since we had two over-performing events in September for the first time in many, many months that I downplayed beforehand. I understand. I like to vent though.

Just like how @rsktkr said he/she watches every extended GFS ensemble run for hints of snowfall, I look at almost every run of every model for QPF. That's what I personally care about the most. Some of you want wind, snow, cold... whatever, and I want a boatload of rain.

If you had your favorite weather event consistently teased with very minimal verification, you would be frustrated too. It's not like all of the cards have to align perfectly for us to get rain like they do for big snow events, windstorms, or even artic air intrusion, but for some reason, we very reliably underperform. 

And may I add that it's not just about preferences. it's about long-term deviation from climatology and the effect on local ecosystems. The decade-long drought and stressed ecology down here are a real thing, and I would have thought it had been discussed enough on these pages that folks up north would be a bit more understanding when those of us who are dealing with it become distressed at yet more under-performing storms and dry model runs.

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5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

In fairness to Tiger, Redding has had a few good years of snow lately. They have scored perhaps more than his location, controlling for latitude.

You're right. Redding acheived a bigger snowstorm at the end of Feb 2019 than I did. 

But I don't judge! 

giphy (16).gif

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I think the only thing that would alleviate my drought anxiety and "weenie" response to dry model runs would be a lavishly wetter-than-normal winter, something that hasn't happened here for over a decade.

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

47° and light rain. Feels like a typical late November afternoon.

Very November-like day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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60/32 Nice to get a quick freeze overnight and now back up to our same high temp we've been having so not really all that impressive. Good to see some folks on the board actually understand what it's like to live in this location so they ethnographically have an idea of just how awful things have become here.

Anyway, here's the fukkin' snow weeklies.

EC Weeklies Snowfall.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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51/30 today.  One of the coldest days I've recorded this early.  A -12 departure for the day and a ridiculous month to date average of 48.9.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was hoping for the trifecta with this trip to Rainier.  Aurora, a great sunrise and lenticular clouds.

Well, what a disappointment, no lenticular clouds.  Had to settle for 4 hours+ of the aurora and a stunning sunrise.  The dusting of snow was amazing for pictures.  By the time I left around noon the mountain was largely hidden by clouds.

asdfasdf.jpg

asdf.jpg

I this case a lenticular cloud would have slightly spoiled it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

60/32 Nice to get a quick freeze overnight and now back up to our same high temp we've been having so not really all that impressive. Good to see some folks on the board actually understand what it's like to live in this location so they ethnographically have an idea of just how awful things have become here.

Anyway, here's the fukkin' snow weeklies.

EC Weeklies Snowfall.png

My chart is blank. This climate sucks. I might as well be in Sacramento. Everybody hates me, nobody likes me, I’m gonna eat some worms.

ecmwf-ensemble-KBLI-indiv_snow-4040000.thumb.png.8b616bc65a60c8ac52a22954a924f7fe.png

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

weeklies bro

image.thumb.png.0a2889e3621bbc2ff5cfd55ce2fd5143.png

A diet of worms

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Oh f*ck, now TWL is gonna whine because his coarse-resolution clown range isn't as good as my coarse-resolution clown range (that pulls in lots of higher land due to the proximity to the mountains).

 

Hes even got you beat on the non-weeklies! How the turn tables....

image.thumb.png.79260a3c13c19fb6fa1102c58e67a267.png

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1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

And may I add that it's not just about preferences. it's about long-term deviation from climatology and the effect on local ecosystems. The decade-long drought and stressed ecology down here are a real thing, and I would have thought it had been discussed enough on these pages that folks up north would be a bit more understanding when those of us who are dealing with it become distressed at yet more under-performing storms and dry model runs.

Lol love it how some people in Oregon assume everyone in Washington is totally dismissive about the drought down there when many of us had our concerns about it even up here…as if we’re the “enemy” or something. Plenty of people who love rain up here myself included. You’re missing my point nobody’s denying there’s a drought we’re all well aware of it…just very annoying when we’re in the middle of a rain event…coming off a top 10 wet month for September…and the models show a decent amount of rain coming even down there and a certain someone’s acting like they live in a desert. Just constantly gripping about it as if there hasn’t been significant improvement in the drought situation the last month. Just because I’m saying that he’s being annoying doesn’t mean we don’t understand there’s a drought going on. Not sure how else to explain it. Dumb that I even have to give a long explanation like this. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

52/30 at HIO today, so avg temp of 41. Coldest October 12 on record and earliest a daily average that low has been recorded at HIO.

Solid event for most of y'all. Good to see things slowly turning around.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Possibly interesting to some on here…  There’s a book and movie called The Lathe of Heaven set in a dystopian Portland Oregon. It’s about a guy whose dreams change reality and only he knows reality has changed. He sees a psychiatrist who figures out that his dreams change reality and tries to influence the guy’s dreams.  It rains constantly (like never stops) in dystopian Portland and one of the things the psychiatrist suggests to the guy is that it stops raining.  When the guy wakes up, Portland is a desert.  
 

Not suggesting that any of this explains the drought situation in Oregon.  But it’s a pretty good movie if you like that kind of thing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lathe_of_Heaven_(film)

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1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

I think the only thing that would alleviate my drought anxiety and "weenie" response to dry model runs would be a lavishly wetter-than-normal winter, something that hasn't happened here for over a decade.

Seems almost impossible, doesn’t it? I would love a 13”, 10”, 9” Nov, Dec, Jan or something like that. I would take much more too, but I’m trying to be somewhat grounded in the realm of possibility. 

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2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:
This morning's low of 29.7 is my first freeze of the season, about 2 weeks ahead of average. Average is October 29th, and this is the 2nd earliest first freeze we have recorded.
2019 was the earliest, on October 1st, and by the 12th we had already recorded four 32- lows.
The 29.7 also breaks the daily record of 34, also set in 2019.

32.jpg

Interesting trend there.

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