PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thunderstorm came through Tulsa this morning, dropped 1.65” in an hour. 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thunderstorm came through Tulsa this morning, dropped 1.65” in an hour. 

That's a third of the last 13 months of precipitation here, in one hour 

[Link]

9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Why is it rarely the opposite? Why couldn’t 1” turn into 5”? The reason is because the vast majority of lows in our region end up north of where they are initially forecasted or they lose their oomph as the swing on in. 
 

The CPC gives us a high probability of above average precipitation in both the 6-10 day timeframe and the 8-14 day. They will have to change that whenever they update their products. 

(Computer voice) 'I'm sorry Joshua but that is wrong think and can't be allowed'.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

I warned everybody in my introductory post that I love to complain about rain. Rain is my thing. I want moss, mushrooms, and mud. Yes, I need to move to SE Alaska.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I warned everybody in my introductory post that I love to complain about rain. Rain is my thing. I want moss, mushrooms, and mud. Yes, I need to move to SE Alaska.

I get it, I hated how dry it was this summer too. I was down in Oregon for a week just got back on the 23rd the effects of the drought and June heatwave were still there even though it dumped rain the first 2 days I was there. The rain we got last month was really significant though I’m pretty sure we’re going to knock out the drought mostly or entirely this upcoming winter. I could DEFINITELY get behind living in SE Alaska too love the rain. Even this rainy climate sometimes isn’t enough for me. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m pretty sure we’re going to get atleast one solidly wet month regionally this fall/winter. Will be +10 inches of rain for everyone atleast one month from BC all the way down to Eugene I’m calling it now. 

[AlTahoe]

Parts of the central valley had their driest water year ever. The eye popping stat is how much drier Redding was compared to their previous driest winter. Wow

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF shows 537 heights getting into northern WA with that super cold trough later in the run.  Pretty exceptional for this early.

[snow_wizard]

On the question of precip the GFS and ECMWF are relatively dry for the next 10 days.  The GFS spits out 0.1 and the ECMWF an even inch.  Generally really cold patterns aren't that wet.

[Timmy Supercell]

20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Parts of the central valley had their driest water year ever. The eye popping stat is how much drier Redding was compared to their previous driest winter. Wow

I think Sac also broke a record consecutive number of days without measurable rain. Close to 200!

[snow_wizard]

The EPS shows a strong cold signal for the NW at least through mid month.  It will be interesting to see if the second half ends up cold too.

[snow_wizard]

The updated ECMWF seasonal forecast came out and it shows January with a decent signal for above normal GOA heights.  Looks like the most likely month to be cold this winter...at least with that model.

[Eujunga]

43 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Parts of the central valley had their driest water year ever. The eye popping stat is how much drier Redding was compared to their previous driest winter. Wow

It was brutally dry through most of Oregon too, and has been for the better part of a decade. That's why some of us are still concerned about dry model runs showing up now even though September was a bit wetter than normal.

A brief surplus of an inch or two more rainfall than normal does not break a drought of this severity, no matter how confident some people may be in their wishcasts.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful first Saturday of October...

[Timmy Supercell]

32 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

It was brutally dry through most of Oregon too, and has been for the better part of a decade. That's why some of us are still concerned about dry model runs showing up now even though September was a bit wetter than normal.

A brief surplus of an inch or two more rainfall than normal does not break a drought of this severity, no matter how confident some people may be in their wishcasts.

With that acknowledged; I don't get the hype in wanting another Fall with periods of fake cold and dry. Nor is that pattern even necessary to get a nice snowy winter.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to put up the numbers and let people decide for themselves.  It's totally provable I'm right.

I’d love to see said data. I’ve looked at it every which way (within my abilities, at least) and have never found anything useful in terms of predictability.

The type of tropical forcing that promotes western troughing in October is completely different from that of DJF. Phase-8/1 MJO transits are climatologically the coldest for PNW region at this time of year. Come January the inverse is true.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The updated ECMWF seasonal forecast came out and it shows January with a decent signal for above normal GOA heights.  Looks like the most likely month to be cold this winter...at least with that model.

The Pacific does indeed look blocked up/shut down, verbatim.

If that type of pattern verifies, it would certainly enhance cold air pooling in Canada and increase the odds of a cold outcome.

[hawkstwelve]

3 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Why is it rarely the opposite? Why couldn’t 1” turn into 5”? The reason is because the vast majority of lows in our region end up north of where they are initially forecasted or they lose their oomph as the swing on in. 
 

The CPC gives us a high probability of above average precipitation in both the 6-10 day timeframe and the 8-14 day. They will have to change that whenever they update their products. 

Actually if you compare the 06z GFS on 9/30 to the 18z GFS on 9/30, since that was the date you used in your example, you can see it does swing wildly the other way. 1.6 for PDX on the 06z vs 4.1 on the 18z. But that's kind of the problem, isn't it? When your hopes and dreams of bountiful rainfall ride or die on 384hr precip maps you are bound to be disappointed often, especially when you mentally block the swings that happen in the opposite direction of your preconceived narrative.

It's just like when we all remind ourselves to not get worked up when the pepto starts showing up on 384hr snowfall maps (even though some of us still do). We know it will change countless more times before that date actually gets here. No point in lamenting how it "always gets taken away" when it inevitably does so.

Mother Nature will shake out how she wants to shake out and more often than not, things have a tendency to balance themselves out regardless of what the 384hr map says. Roll with the punches.

 

[The Swamp]

Can we put a lock on January being exceptionally cold with above normal heights in Alaska with down stream troughing over the PNW?

I think this will a colder than normal winter with lots long long dry spells.  Cold crisp beautiful sunshine.  I could go for that with a few dustings of snow that last for a week or two.

I'd like to skip wind storms please.

[Deweydog]

Deese Ember.

[TT-SEA]

October harvesting... potatoes today.    The garden has been a prolific producer this year.   Everything has done awesome.   Much more coming still.  

[TacomaWaWx]

67/42 today…sunnier than I was expecting. 

[snow_wizard]

Incredibly the GFS and ECMWF have highs of 51 and 50 respectively on Tuesday for McCord.  Cold!

[Mr Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Deese Ember.

Ach Toe Burr

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredibly the GFS and ECMWF have highs of 51 and 50 respectively on Tuesday for McCord.  Cold!

Not sure why McCord matters when its shows all of western WA being about the same.   Its a matter of timing with the front... ECMWF shows low clouds and thick mid level clouds above the low clouds on Tuesday afternoon so it will be dark.    Wednesday looks much more sunny though.  

[Phil]

So..summer is over, right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 

 

Where in Missouri?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Where in Missouri?

Branson/Table Rock Lake 

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Branson/Table Rock Lake 

Nice!  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45/60˚F for the day. Mostly cloudy but dry. Made it to the top of Lookout Mountain so my legs should be tired and sore tomorrow.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Branson/Table Rock Lake 

What are you doing out there?

[MossMan]

Was a fall clean up, finished boat winterization, put patio furniture away kind of day! Oh and I mowed, the grass is still pumping! Sun popped out for only about an hour today otherwise cloudy and calm. 
61/45 on the day.

Currently 55. 

[The Blob]

We went to the grotto today. It's so shaded they didn't have much damage down below from the heat.

[The Blob]

Looks like King 5 will be getting another meteorologist this month from Palm Springs 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Actually if you compare the 06z GFS on 9/30 to the 18z GFS on 9/30, since that was the date you used in your example, you can see it does swing wildly the other way. 1.6 for PDX on the 06z vs 4.1 on the 18z. But that's kind of the problem, isn't it? When your hopes and dreams of bountiful rainfall ride or die on 384hr precip maps you are bound to be disappointed often, especially when you mentally block the swings that happen in the opposite direction of your preconceived narrative.

It's just like when we all remind ourselves to not get worked up when the pepto starts showing up on 384hr snowfall maps (even though some of us still do). We know it will change countless more times before that date actually gets here. No point in lamenting how it "always gets taken away" when it inevitably does so.

Mother Nature will shake out how she wants to shake out and more often than not, things have a tendency to balance themselves out regardless of what the 384hr map says. Roll with the punches.

 

Really, it’s not the long-term that I’m talking about. Yes, I posted 16 day maps, but it’s the rug pulling in the short-term that I’m talking about. I am very aware of how increasingly inaccurate models are as the run date and forecast date spread grows. 

This last Thursday is an example of rug pulling. Next Tuesday (although the 18z Euro puts us in the “bullseye”. Yea right.) appears to be one. Next Sunday is another. Next Sunday is pushing the reliable timeframe a bit. I know. 

Admittedly, the two strong September events over-performed. That is extremely rare of late. At one point , I had counted about 15 under-performers in a row for PDX. 
 
I can guarantee that nobody on this forum cares more about my area’s precipitation than me. That’s what I focus on in model riding. It genuinely affects my emotions. I see mostly every run of every model that I have access to. So, I am not speaking based on lack of information. Lack of bias, knowledge, and objectiveness are certainly debatable.

[Thunder98]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 

Looks like a Summer Evening in the South.

[Mr Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 

After the rain?

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure why McCord matters when its shows all of western WA being about the same.   Its a matter of timing with the front... ECMWF shows low clouds and thick mid level clouds above the low clouds on Tuesday afternoon so it will be dark.    Wednesday looks much more sunny though.  

Jim didn't say anything about Wednesday though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

After the rain?

Yes there were some very heavy showers today. 

[Link]

8 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

1 moderate to heavy rain storm (depending on your locale) with 2 weeks of dryness and more dryness likely = really wet pattern..................(insert compute error here)

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, Link said:

1 moderate to heavy rain storm (depending on your locale) with 2 weeks of dryness and more dryness likely = really wet pattern..................(insert compute error here)

There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? 

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m not the forum police and I should just let people say and feel however they want without me debating. But summers over rains returning there even getting some in Northern California…the drought situation has really improved will continue to improve. At this point we’ve just gotta hope spring isn’t as dry as the last few have been so we’re not in bad shape headed into next summer that’s what I’m more concerned about. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Looks like King 5 will be getting another meteorologist this month from Palm Springs 

Wow he is going to have actual weather to cover! I don’t imagine there was a whole lot to cover in Palm Springs. 

[The Blob]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow he is going to have actual weather to cover! I don’t imagine there was a whole lot to cover in Palm Springs. 

Endless hot with haboobs. I looked into him and he's originally from BC so he's super stoked to be back in the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? 

I agree, not like the first half of October is our peak rainy season either. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Jim didn't say anything about Wednesday though.

No... I did.   Referring to something I like. 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... I did.   Referring to something I like. 

No reason to do that on someone else's post. 

[BLI snowman]

The first half to 2/3 of October is often pretty dry. This year it at least will be cool with a few fronts and no summer like weather on the horizon. And this is after we just had a very wet pattern with a top 10 wet September for the airport era.