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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

It shouldn't have any statistical significance for any of us, unless someone lives in shack on a runway.

Good lord you are truly relentless 😂

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Thank you.

I am truly actually quite impressed with the persistence fred should come up with a new badge. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Man, you really haven't been on this forum very long huh?

Long enough to know what you’re referring to lol. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

It’s kinda crazy how people react between heat and cold. Interestingly enough, an anomalous day like this in the weather department would probably on par with one of the heatwave days we went through this past summer. Yet,  no one talk much about today. No one would know about it. Coldest day in 125 years for 1st 2 weeks of October? That’s insane. 

Impressive

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Looks like SEA checked in with a -12 departure today, and broke the record low from 1946.  Anyone care to say this is no big deal now?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

It’s kinda crazy how people react between heat and cold. Interestingly enough, an anomalous day like this in the weather department would probably on par with one of the heatwave days we went through this past summer. Yet,  no one talk much about today. No one would know about it. Coldest day in 125 years for 1st 2 weeks of October? That’s insane. 

Today is not even remotely close anomalously compared to the June heatwave. Exceeding the normal high temp by almost 40 degrees and breaking the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded for three consecutive days including one day by nine degrees in June takes the cake by a mile. I’m no statistician, but I imagine the heatwave standard deviation from normal is so far off the charts it’s almost theoretically impossible except over a very long period of time. That event was orders of magnitude more significant than today.

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Today is not even remotely close anomalously compared to the June heatwave. Exceeding the normal high temp by almost 40 degrees and breaking the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded for three consecutive days including one day by nine degrees in June takes the cake by a mile. I’m no statistician, but I imagine the heatwave standard deviation from normal is so far off the charts it’s almost theoretically impossible except over a very long period of time. That event was orders of magnitude more significant than today.

Depends on where you live. The stat for SEA was impressive. I’d say 125 years is impressive but I wasn’t really referring to any place else except SEA. 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think it has to do with the fact it doesn’t hit 108 here often…but a 50/36 day in Seattle can happen from November-March and not be considered unusual. Not to take away from that stat though very impressive. 51/35 here was pretty chilly…had a 54/32 day in October 2019 here at my location so it tied that day in terms of average temp (43 degrees). 

This is way more impressive than 2019 when you consider duration and intensity both.  Most places are going to come in way colder for the first half of the month than 2019.  This is also happening with a Nina which makes it more of prize if you want a sign for a cold winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA checked in with a -12 departure today, and broke the record low from 1946.  Anyone care to say this is no big deal now?

😀

Chris will.

I doubt it means anything for December or January... but it was statistically impressive today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Today is not even remotely close anomalously compared to the June heatwave. Exceeding the normal high temp by almost 40 degrees and breaking the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded for three consecutive days including one day by nine degrees in June takes the cake by a mile. I’m no statistician, but I imagine the heatwave standard deviation from normal is so far off the charts it’s almost theoretically impossible except over a very long period of time. That event was orders of magnitude more significant than today.

And I also never mentioned the June heatwave.. I said one of the heatwave days, we’ve had many of those. I ruled the June ones out because it was exceptional, I tend to lean towards the later heatwave ones when it was in the 90s. You can’t tell me a stat that stood for over 125 years and an overnight low that was broken since 1946 wasn’t exceptional. 

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It wouldn't shock me at all if we get a major cold shot at the end of the month after the ridge.  The ECMWF suite of models is showing that ridge will be very short lived.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I see OLM hit 29 this morning and Shelton 28.

This cold snap is just killing it in this area.  Pretty much every day has come in below projections for low temps for days now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And I also never mentioned the June heatwave.. I said one of the heatwave days, we’ve had many of those. I ruled the June ones out because it was exceptional, I tend to lean towards the later heatwave ones when it was in the 90s. You can’t tell me a stat that stood for over 125 years and an overnight low that was broken since 1946 wasn’t exceptional. 

The June heatwave was exceptional. 

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

It shouldn't have any statistical significance for any of us, unless someone lives in a shack on a runway.

I find it rather significant, and for the record, its really not a bad place to live as long as you have a good set of earplugs.   Also, you call it a "shack," I like to think of it as the "Palace on the Plateau"

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is way more impressive than 2019 when you consider duration and intensity both.  Most places are going to come in way colder for the first half of the month than 2019.  This is also happening with a Nina which makes it more of prize if you want a sign for a cold winter.

It's impressive over there. Over here 2009 and 2019 were both colder.

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's impressive over there. Over here 2009 and 2019 were both colder.

2009 was a total nothing burger here and that was a Nino anyway.  The context and intensity / persistence of this cold period is quite significant.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The June heatwave was exceptional. 

It certainly was.  Probably the most anomalous thing I've ever seen.  That having been said the accomplishment for Seattle today was pretty exceptional also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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More below normal days showing up on the 0z GFS now.  A chilly little clipper after day 10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2009 was a total nothing burger here and that was a Nino anyway.  The context and intensity / persistence of this cold period is quite significant.

The first 15 days of October 2009 all featured below average high temperatures. 14 of the first 15 days in October 2019 featured below average high temperatures. The first half of October 2019 also featured a significant snowfall.

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Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps?

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps?

5/-10 for Seattle 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps?

I'm thinking December 1968, December 1978, or January 1888.

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps?

0 degree high and -20 nighttime low for Seattle with 5 feet of snow. 

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October 2009 was very cold nationally. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I am truly actually quite impressed with the persistence fred should come up with a new badge. 

Pestilence.

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

October 2009 was very cold nationally. 

Second coldest on record for Denver. One of only two years where October was colder then November.

The Rockies made the playoffs that year...if memory serves, the coldest MLB game on record also occurred in Denver that month.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn.

Here’s some more fall pictures for you Phil. Enjoy this panorama view of the pumpkin patch, cloudy skies and Sasquatch! It was low 50s today. 

53E5A536-9BFC-485B-B81D-DC9DDA6561E1.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn.

Never had an early Fall, or on par with the west?

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn.

Stick to the appropriate thread for your location and you wouldn't even worry about it.  

Thanks, from the fat asss from Washington!!

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps?

Single digit lows, highs in the mid upper teens.

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps?

Lows in the negatives west side region wide, highs no higher than 25° region wide for no less than 3 days consecutively, west side only taken in to account.

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45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Never had an early Fall, or on par with the west?

Not once has fall started here before the West. We’re always the last in line. :(

Yet somehow we manage to go from winter straight to summer in 3-4 weeks. Lol.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not once has fall started here before the West. We’re always the last in line. :(

Yet somehow we manage to go from winter straight to summer in 3-4 weeks. Lol.

You maybe be a bit too far south. Because I’m pretty sure New England is a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of foliage.

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