Jump to content

PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A record low of 39 seems like some low hanging fruit. SLE s record low is like 28. I haven’t looked, but ours is probably in the mid 20s at least. Our average low is around what SEA s record is lol. How thrilling. Nice crisp weather, but it’s not THAT exciting.

Maybe not exciting, but intriguing as hell.  You still have to tip your hat to a top 5% event which the average temp for the first half of October is going to be.  I have always been a sucker for cold in October anyway, and we have it in spades this year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Spiritual Chris WX said:

34* Spanaway near Walmart

Down to 36 here now.  I will notch my -10 departure for the day.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe not exciting, but intriguing as hell.  You still have to tip your hat to a top 5% event which the average temp for the first half of October is going to be.  I have always been a sucker for cold in October anyway, and we have it in spades this year.

Gonna go out on a limb and say that this part of the region is not experiencing a top 5 event. Things are different down here than they used to be.

  • Troll 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 36 here now.  I will notch my -10 departure for the day.

Just a -3.5 for here. Just a bit different.

  • Excited 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe not exciting, but intriguing as hell.  You still have to tip your hat to a top 5% event which the average temp for the first half of October is going to be.  I have always been a sucker for cold in October anyway, and we have it in spades this year.

It’s interesting to an extent, but we just had an extremely cold October 2 years ago. We will see if this year can stack up to that one. I have my doubts. But a solidly chilly month would be a win. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I mean I don't know how to prove that, but I can show you this time lapse from Skunkbay Weather. This camera is less sensitive than the human eye at night and you can see it (although not particularly impressively) at the end of the video. I mean it certainly wasn't the brightest I've ever seen and not like any of the pictures make it appear, but it was enough to make reflections on the Sound.

 

 

 

That shows nothing, not trying to be an assshole but if it isn't visible to the naked eye then it's not impressive to me, just my opinion. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just a -3.5 for here. Just a bit different.

It’s been solidly below average everywhere. A bit more so at SEA, a bit less so at EUG. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

That shows nothing, not trying to be an assshole but if it isn't visible to the naked eye the it's not impressive to me, just my opinion. 

How tf does someone prove what they’ve seen with the naked eye? I’m sorry but that’s kind of a dumb question people are literally posting pictures of it…people can see it with the naked eye I could even see it here like 75 miles south going against the Seattle light pollution. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Lol, I wanna see flip phone pics, that would prove it.  

I’m just gonna assume you’re trolling at this point like usual. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lol, I wanna see flip phone pics, that would prove it.  

Or a video that showed the light pillars moving.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s been solidly below average everywhere. A bit more so at SEA, a bit less so at EUG. 

I think I'm at about -6 here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Jim just stated what would be the best proof, I am not the only skeptical one.

Someone literally quoted you with the video…I’m not sure why I’m even responding this is just the same dumb sh*t you do to Tim all the time. Throw in the random weather observation 10% of the time and useless stuff 90% of the time…

  • Like 3

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in Canyon Park in Bothell and it's already 37°. I think more areas are going have frost tonight!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mean temp at my place this month has been 48.6. That’s -1 for the whole month, so probably-4/-5 month to

date. Course I haven’t even been home so it’s just numbers.

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The video did not show anything, I tried to see it many times but it isn't there.

It is quite possible to see it with the naked eye though it’ll most likely be a hazy mess. This should be the skunkbay camera loop.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Spiritual Chris WX said:

KTCM (McChord) 33*

The models have been terrible with the low temps on this cold snap.  The GFS had their low being 37 tonight and the ECMWF 35.  They have been high on everything on the low temps.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It is quite possible to see it with the naked eye though it’ll most likely be a hazy mess. This should be the skunkbay camera loop.

Also quite variable in intensity. Went from bright and obvious to barely visible to not visible to the naked eye in a matter of minutes.

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FBe4n19VgAEQZQr.thumb.jpg.0896b82a2d8ea8fda0ce9ea4051649d0.jpg

Man when was the last time we had an anomaly distribution quite like this one? 🤨

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Or a video that showed the light pillars moving.

it's always sunny in philadelphia — labeledbones: Dennis: Now here's the  twist, and...

We show it...we show all of it.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Cloud said:

Cohen’s thoughts and blog on the SSW peaking around October 25. Seems to suggest early SSW’s in Oct/Nov will lead to something very significant during mid-winter. This is quite exciting. Definitely worth the read. 
 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Also this thread regarding weak SSW in Oct/Nov leading to a more significant one later. 
 

The concern is a very early SSW could make it more difficult for efficient wave driving in the subsequent 6-8 weeks, during the peak of the radiative cycle, particularly in December. Wave activity fluxes are rendered inert without a westerly moat above the zero wind line. 

I’d rather see an average (or slightly stronger than average) vortex in October/early November. But not so strong that we lose a ton of O3 and the PV becomes an immovable black hole perpetuating a shallow/stable/warm tropical tropopause.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...