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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You maybe be a bit too far south. Because I’m pretty sure New England is a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of foliage.

New England is in an entirely different universe climate wise.

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is way more impressive than 2019 when you consider duration and intensity both.  Most places are going to come in way colder for the first half of the month than 2019.  This is also happening with a Nina which makes it more of prize if you want a sign for a cold winter.

The end of September 2019 was more impressive than this.

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4 hours ago, Cloud said:

You maybe be a bit too far south. Because I’m pretty sure New England is a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of foliage.

Depends on where you are. Most of the cities in New England right now are still a rather mixed bag in terms of bright foliage. Many more birch and maple trees here of course so those are now turning with the ash trees coming in slowly, but nothing at an earlier date than what you'd expect in WA/OR/ID. The hills are a different story of course but the same is true if you head up to the Cascades right now.

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17 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 6z GFS leaves us high and dry this weekend. The firehouse is pointed right at Vancouver Island. If you look at the progression of the last 5 or so runs, the bullseye keeps moving north. It always does.

It is a pretty dry run, but also gets chilly in the longer range. Some will dig that. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Not once has fall started here before the West. We’re always the last in line. :(

Yet somehow we manage to go from winter straight to summer in 3-4 weeks. Lol.

The only downside to living at elevation in the Sierra is that winter/spring goes on forever. We generally have to wait till July for reliable warm temps. 

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24 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 6z GFS leaves us high and dry this weekend. The firehouse is pointed right at Vancouver Island. If you look at the progression of the last 5 or so runs, the bullseye keeps moving north. It always does.

06Z actually shows a dry weekend here... although I highly doubt that happens.   The 00Z ECMWF showed a very wet Sunday.

We have had rain on every weekend since Labor Day and its rained on 15 out of the last 18 days here.   And its pouring rain this morning.    Hard to believe this coming weekend will be dry... but it would be a nice change of pace.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This system was pretty weak. 0.31”. Chilly morning. 38 after a low of 36. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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That was not a troll post Andrew... its been unusually wet and cold here for most of the last month and a change of pace would be really nice in my opinion.    I don't think it will happen though.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z EPS was very wet for the PNW for the next 2 weeks...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-5379200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-total_precip_inch-5379200.png

Interesting...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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53 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The only downside to living at elevation in the Sierra is that winter/spring goes on forever. We generally have to wait till July for reliable warm temps. 

I know it was 11 years ago, which still feels recent but how did you do in 2010-2011? It snowed in the Tahoe basin on Memorial Day that year. Mini golfed in snow that weekend 

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Depends on where you are. Most of the cities in New England right now are still a rather mixed bag in terms of bright foliage. Many more birch and maple trees here of course so those are now turning with the ash trees coming in slowly, but nothing at an earlier date than what you'd expect in WA/OR/ID. The hills are a different story of course but the same is true if you head up to the Cascades right now.

Same here across Denver/Boulder metro.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Though Canadian warming events under -ENSO/-QBO tend to favor the east more than the west until mid-Jan, when the relationship inverts.

On the other hand, Siberian warmings have really delivered for the West in recent years. 

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That trough over the weekend is looking pretty chilly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 hours ago, Kayla said:

@TT-SEA Did you really get 36" of snow in 24 hours in Feb 2019? I thought that was over a couple of days?

 

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The snowstorm lasted from late afternoon on 2/11 though early afternoon on 2/12.     And I am pretty sure the entire area out here got 3 feet in that period... even down in the valley.   There was no difference between North Bend and here... hence the need for the National Guard down there.  

By mid afternoon on 2/12... the accumulating snow was done here as the upper levels warmed up enough.    I am sure it was a 24-hour event.  

I measured snowfall that February. It was about 2 feet that fell on the 11th/12th, but we already had 1.5 to 2 feet from the previous week. With compaction, I measured between 36” to 42” on the ground at the end of the 12th. Here are my totals:

10" on the 3rd/4th

7" on 8th/9th

6" on 10th

19" to 24" on 11th/12th (Difficult to measure)

1.5" on 19th/20th

2" on 22nd

Our neighborhood experienced the most impactful windstorm (January 6) and snowstorm (February) in most longtime residents memories in 2019. 


C7CB3901-1579-4D8E-BCE9-8052F291CECF.thumb.jpeg.54da4ecab808f08d016896eaf2ed5f51.jpeg

That is the main entrance to our neighborhood, completely blocked. I feel like that windstorm didn’t stick with most Puget Sound weather fans but it must have had the perfect wind direction to funnel along Rattlesnake Mountain and just punish the trees in that area. Without power, and with several neighbors with holes in their roofs, it snowed the next night. A foreboding preview of the snowy February to come.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That was not a troll post Andrew... its been unusually wet and cold here for most of the last month and a change of pace would be really nice in my opinion.    I don't think it will happen though.

October has been pretty nice over here so far. Today is looking very November like with low clouds and drizzle, but most days have been sunny and dry.

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The Pacific Ocean about 300 miles offshore sure gets a lot of rain on this run. lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Even Joe Bastardi’s analogs are interesting for the West. :o

 

Joe Bastardi is a broken clock. Hulk Hogan has about as much credibility as a long range weather forecaster. Mr T, on the other hand, is a totally different story. It's a coin flip between him and the CFS. What am I saying? Mr T isn't any better.😂😆

download.jpeg

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I'm starting to get a wet/mild vibe for November. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

All signs pointing front-loaded. It's a LOCK.

LOL... Yeah, decent signal for lowland snow in February too if we look at those years. The good news is none of those years were duds in the PNW. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

LOL... Yeah, decent signal for lowland snow in February too if we look at those years. The good news is none of those years were duds in the PNW. 

2010 also didn't "blow its load early", the snow machine kept giving through mid-Spring and someone had to unplug the D**n thing. 

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

I know it was 11 years ago, which still feels recent but how did you do in 2010-2011? It snowed in the Tahoe basin on Memorial Day that year. Mini golfed in snow that weekend 

I picked up 320" of snow at my house that winter. It was an all time winter. It snowed multiple times in June including the weekend before the 4th of July. I skied Alpine Meadows on 4th of July weekend in incredible conditions. 

Edit: Also I don't know if any of you ever saw this from back in 2011 but somebody in my neighborhood made a pretty incredible sledding hill. 

 

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