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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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I'm pretty confident that for SEA (records back to 1945) the only Octobers that had a colder first half than this one will be were 1946 and 1949.  Pretty good company there!  For those who don't know 1946-47 was a decent cold winter with nice events in November and January.  Going further back the only one I know for sure that was colder than this month for the first half was October 1916.  Another cold winter.

Although I haven't added them up 1955, 1973, 1981, and 1990 also appear to be in the top 10 for coldest first half of October.

It also appears this will be at least a near record streak of sub 60 highs for so early in the season.  Interestingly the longest streak I have found is from October 1968.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty confident that for SEA (records back to 1945) the only Octobers that had a colder first half than this one will be were 1946 and 1949.  Pretty good company there!  For those who don't know 1946-47 was a decent cold winter with nice events in November and January.  Going further back the only one I know for sure that was colder than this month for the first half was October 1916.  Another cold winter.

Although I haven't added them up 1955, 1973, 1981, and 1990 also appear to be in the top 10 for coldest first half of October.

It also appears this will be at least a near record streak of sub 60 highs for so early in the season.  Interestingly the longest streak I have found is from October 1968.

January 1947 was pretty decent up here. It was a very chilly October, coolish November, near average December. February through spring was pretty mild though. Lots of Tim weather. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1947&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Would be fun to have a high below 60F.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Ensembles - 850mb Temps/Precip

Ridge, trough, ridge, then supposedly turning wet and chilly. We shall see...

Portland

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=0

Seattle

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=0

Night shift going my man?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Possibly. It depends on pain control. You?

Should be up til 3 or so. I really get excited once we have the fallback and can start to dial in on some airmass ballgames.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty confident that for SEA (records back to 1945) the only Octobers that had a colder first half than this one will be were 1946 and 1949.  Pretty good company there!  For those who don't know 1946-47 was a decent cold winter with nice events in November and January.  Going further back the only one I know for sure that was colder than this month for the first half was October 1916.  Another cold winter.

Although I haven't added them up 1955, 1973, 1981, and 1990 also appear to be in the top 10 for coldest first half of October.

It also appears this will be at least a near record streak of sub 60 highs for so early in the season.  Interestingly the longest streak I have found is from October 1968.

For the 1st 12 days, ‘46, ‘49, ‘73, ‘55 has this year beat. 

Winter 1949 received 63.6” of snow that winter. A repeat of 1949 is in order.  Wouldn’t mind 1968 either, which actually has same stat for first 12 days as this year. 

54FCADC1-263B-43FD-911B-E5D527B6DEC9.jpeg

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Uh oh. 00z EURO is not running on Pivotal :o

Still the afternoon run on WB too. The king ate too much bacon and now his a$$ can't fit through the door.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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We're still not even into the top 50 coldest Octobers here. Currently in 57th place for avg temp. North/south gradient still going strong.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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I've been watching the dramatic cooling over the northern Pacific. Hopefully we can push the milder water right up against the coast to the south. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Just now, Geos said:

I've been watching the dramatic cooling over the northern Pacific. Hopefully we can push the milder water right up against the coast to the south. 

Shouldn't be a problem if the last couple years are any indication. Lows will be traveling along an Arctic boundary in central Lincoln County and across the northern Lane County border.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're still not even into the top 50 coldest Octobers here. Currently in 57th place for avg temp. North/south gradient still going strong.

Did you compare first 12 days of the month or just the mean so far to historical October means? I would imagine if you compare month to date it ranks much colder. They are running over a -3 departure.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Rain has become more scattered now. Now it is just misting here on the Island. More of a balmy night tonight, compared to others this week. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you compare first 12 days of the month or just the mean so far to historical October means? I would imagine if you compare month to date it ranks much colder. They are running over a -3 departure.

We're at 53.3F for an avg so far and there are a lot of Octobers that averaged lower. Checked ACIS. for it.

Currently in 22nd place for 1st 12 days of Oct and the #s for the 13th will show an avg around -3F or so. Will likely bump us into the top 20 thru 13 days in Oct.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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LR 06z GFS has a suspiciously cold system a the end of its run. Temps around 40 in the heart of the afternoon and some mixing in the foothills. We’re getting closer!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Sub 540 thickness into Tijuana alright

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

LR 06z GFS has a suspiciously cold system a the end of its run. Temps around 40 in the heart of the afternoon and some mixing in the foothills. We’re getting closer!

Yup! Was about to say... 6z wants to keep this entire month downright chilly. Kids might have to bundle up an extra layer for Halloween. 

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46 here and some rain. 6th consecutive day with precipitation. 1.08” on the month. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty confident that for SEA (records back to 1945) the only Octobers that had a colder first half than this one will be were 1946 and 1949.  Pretty good company there!  For those who don't know 1946-47 was a decent cold winter with nice events in November and January.  Going further back the only one I know for sure that was colder than this month for the first half was October 1916.  Another cold winter.

Although I haven't added them up 1955, 1973, 1981, and 1990 also appear to be in the top 10 for coldest first half of October.

It also appears this will be at least a near record streak of sub 60 highs for so early in the season.  Interestingly the longest streak I have found is from October 1968.

The other day I didn’t have my statistics with me when I thought we only had 2 or 3 days in the 60s in October 2019…was wrong actually. We had 7 total highs in the 60s that month only 2 so far this month. Plenty of time to get a few more before the months over but the max high temps have been colder than 2019…mins have been warmer. Hopefully it works out for something interesting later this year and we can get a 6th year in a row with atleast 1” of snow this winter. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

LR 06z GFS has a suspiciously cold system a the end of its run. Temps around 40 in the heart of the afternoon and some mixing in the foothills. We’re getting closer!

Culver Josh could see some snow around hour 372. The long range GFS is pretty fun. 
 

42 with light rain this morning. 0.12” since midnight. Damp. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're at 53.3F for an avg so far and there are a lot of Octobers that averaged lower. Checked ACIS. for it.

Currently in 22nd place for 1st 12 days of Oct and the #s for the 13th will show an avg around -3F or so. Will likely bump us into the top 20 thru 13 days in Oct.

Top 20 isn't bad. Can you send me the link to the site you use? I want to plug in some numbers from other stations. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Found this cool article on the hood canal   and why they get more snow then Seattle 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/082/index.html

A similar pattern of cold air banking against the Coast Mountains also helps the BC Lower Mainland get more snow than Whatcom County. (On average, at least; it certainly did not happen last winter.) Am looking forward to being on the statistically winning side of that tendency this winter 😀.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.

 

Or less than .25'' looking at the 12z GFS and ICON.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Top 20 isn't bad. Can you send me the link to the site you use? I want to plug in some numbers from other stations. 

I use https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org for my reference. I make sure to check it before I post so as to compare it with Springfield. But sometimes the airport is far enough NW that it sees different conditions than the SE valley.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Pretty wet morning in progress. Quasi-stationary rain band against the foothills. 0.21" since midnight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like Springfield was 4F warmer than the airport yesterday.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Monday's high of 49 was chilly, I'm not sure where to find record "cold highs" - but here's 10/11 other years.

I think it might be 46 (?) but has no year next to it. 

2021: 49
2020: 62
2019: 64
2018: 62
2017: 50
2016: 68
2015: 73
2014: 69
2013: 57
2012: 75
2011: 59
2010: 64
2009: 70
2008: 48***

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[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This is good eye candy... A month later and this is a major snow event from Albany north. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_57.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Things get fun the last week of October. MBG.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

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  • Storm 1
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Re: medium/long range guidance, that might be the most impressive STJ pattern I’ve ever seen during a La Niña.

Even the 2015 super niño autumn didn’t have it so well defined.

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Just now, Phil said:

Re: medium/long range guidance, that might be the most impressive STJ pattern I’ve ever seen during a La Niña.

Even the 2015 super niño autumn didn’t have it so well defined.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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