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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Saturday was always going to be sunny and warm. Forgive me for wanting rain when our entire state is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought. 

😀

Saturday was not always a given up here.   Still right on the line.   We have months of rain ahead... there is nothing wrong with enjoying some nice weather when it comes our way.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like this won’t be the last sunny, warm weekend of fall. Next Saturday…

image.thumb.png.ef616a57e36dd3ed68016def8e841f7b.png

 

That is a long way off and the ECMWF and EPS say it will be wet.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS has consistently shown the Op to be a massive outlier after about Day 5.5 and hopefully that continues tonight.

Not sure about 850mb temps... but the 00Z GEFS looks fairly similar in terms of precip anomalies over the next 10 days.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-qpf_anom_10day-5120000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS has consistently shown the Op to be a massive outlier after about Day 5.5 and hopefully that continues tonight.

Not as bad

GEFS PNW temps.png

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

And, next Sunday. 
 

image.thumb.png.851a5707e4d1988a0860ef47533531da.png

The GFS is a wild outlier right now as compared to it's ensemble and the ECMWF suite of models.  Since the upgrade the operational has had it's moments of insanity.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

52/43 on the day. Currently 51.

.11” on the day. 

You managed to stay on the cold side of the line today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I would say the Auburn sensor has gone titts up tonight.  33 with winds gusting to 40!

  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'm sorry to hear about that man, that really sucks.  It is certainly a reminder for me and my family to count our blessings with my daughter... as of now (knock on wood), her seizures are controlled with medication.  We know that at any point, that could change.  While she will have the occasional twitch that will send a utensil flying across the kitchen, and she most likely won't be able to have kids, at least the medications are working for now.

Honestly the scariest part for us right now is that her medications cost $2,000/month without insurance.  She turns 26 next year, which of course means she will fall off our insurance. 

Can they do anything with your implant to reign things in?  Is the implant still functioning properly?  When my wife worked in Cardiology, every once in a very great while they would have a pacemaker sh*t the bed prematurely and they would have to go in and do an early replacement.

 

You are very definitely in my family's thoughts.  Please take care of yourself and get plenty of rest.  Sleep (or lack thereof) is the number one trigger for my daughter's seizures.

Just have her come work with me. We need people, incredible benefits with either Aetna or Kaiser, great pay. Message me if you're interested in passing that along.

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12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sure is looking wet over the next 3 days here. By Sunday we should be near normal in terms of rainfall for the entire month of October 

Wish we could say the same. Gonna be a nice, cooler than normal month. Unfortunately for precip, we are at about half of where we should be by this point in Oct. Same old song and dance as it seems to be nigh impossible to have a cooler and wetter than normal month here anymore.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

5 weeks.

You putting in your call for goodies?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Mild morning... 53 at SEA.  

The main moisture plume is now parked just to the north of the Seattle area.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mild morning... 53 at SEA.  

The main moisture plume is now parked just to the north of the Seattle area.   

Yes, it was quite a wet night up this way. Neighborhood gauge only reads 0.04" but I don’t trust that, given how it’s been coming down out there. 0.26" overnight at KBLI.

52˚F for the low here.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Just have her come work with me. We need people, incredible benefits with either Aetna or Kaiser, great pay. Message me if you're interested in passing that along.

I will definitely mull that over.  Biggest challenge is with her not driving, she is reliant on us for transportation.  I get frustrated at times with her decision, but then again, if she builds a life around having a car and then started having breakthrough seizures, she is kinda screwed.  Her epilepsy has also kind of stunted her socially, so she doesn't have a lot of friends (which makes moving out with a group of friends tough).  I worked at a facility that had manufacturing, and she was able to get a job there and we would ride in together.  They were really good about finding her jobs that did not involve power tools and sharp objects and she loved it.  Before Covid, she was settling in, doing an awesome job and making friends (even had a boyfriend).  Covid screwed that up, but hopefully with my job situation settling down, and my wife about to figure out her work situation, we will be able to get her back working. 

 

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Mild morning. Clear skies and low of 42

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

rsz_tumbleweed-russian-thistle-dustin-bl

That’ll be what it looks like all the way up to Campbell river BC in 10 years. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Doesn’t look like we will get much rain south of Seattle today…maybe a bit but not a lot. We’re pretty close to average rainfall here for the first half of the month. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Huskies, Cougars, Ducks, and Beavers all play at home tomorrow on what should be a spectacular Saturday.   October perfection!   Both of my sons are going to their respective games.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There is likely going to be a pretty tight gradient in rainfall amounts around here the next couple days.  A decent amount of rain shadow for MBY but the hills not too far west of here are probably going to get a foot of rain in the next 48 hours. 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Dry as a bone over here. Calm and 427B964EDF-DA60-433A-90D0-5E1FE535E9D5.thumb.jpeg.2608de61ebd27e327a0479f7ce86e6f9.jpeg

Don't lie. This is the Willamette Valley in August. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies, Cougars, Ducks, and Beavers all play at home tomorrow on what should be a spectacular Saturday.   October perfection!   Both of my sons are going to their respective games.

Ducks are actually at home tonight vs Cal. I have Cal +14. Oregon is reeling and has a ton of injuries.

Looks like we made it down to 40F. Up to 60F now and beautiful sunshine.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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