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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Too soon!

I've seen some mets talking about this early SSW possibly being a good omen for the winter though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, though the majority of early season cold outbreaks are forced more directly via tropical/mid latitude dynamics out of Eurasia (IE: Siberian High descent/EAMT & how it relates to Indo-Pacific convection/WTs).

The trop/strat coupling isn’t well developed at this time of year, so there’s limited potential. There are interesting early season cases, of course (for example, Nov/Dec 1996) that produced highly anomalous patterns, but generally speaking, the large scale displacement of deep Arctic air via PV disruption is something you seldom see before the winter solstice. 

Or, none of this matters.  Mother nature is gonna nature and she seems to be finding all kinds of new ways to do that all over the world no matter the circumstance. 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes I wonder if we are looking at the same model runs.

Everyone sees what they want to see!   

I see plenty of dry, pleasant days ahead here... and most of the precip focused to the south where its needed.   A very nice change of pace.

That is of course after tonight and tomorrow when all the rain is focused to the north.  😃

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d gladly take some cold and snow in November. Last time anything legit happened here in that month was 2010. Had some snow in 2014 and 2017 but those weren’t significant really. 

2014 was actually kind of nice.  It snowed and was followed by a pretty good cold shot and a few days of cold / clear weather where the snow lingered.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Or, none of this matters.  Mother nature is gonna nature and she seems to be finding all kinds of new ways to do that all over the world no matter the circumstance. 

So true.   

All we really know is that nothing will go according to anyone's plan or analogs.    That is almost a guarantee.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it works in the summer and fall when it generally pretty dry. Come November, that hypothesis will not hold up. 

Perhaps. I actually think the 10th percentile is way too optimistic right now. The 12z EPS 10th percentile is at 2.47” in the next two weeks for PDX. The minimum of all 50 members is 1.11”. Median is 4.11”. 

I would put money on us staying below the 10th percentile if anyone is game. Theoretically, your odds are extremely good. 

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Or, none of this matters.  Mother nature is gonna nature and she seems to be finding all kinds of new ways to do that all over the world no matter the circumstance. 

The only thing you can really say for sure is our chances of scoring with a highly perturbed atmosphere in a second year Nina year are above average.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like a nice evening in Eugene.

And the #9 Ducks are not as impressive as that ranking indicates as Andrew said earlier.   They might end up winning... but they look sloppy against a 1-4 team.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS advertises another very cool day on Monday with afternoon temps only in the low 50s for the Seattle area.  I think it's putting way too much weight on the high clouds keeping min temps up Monday night though.  The models have a terrible habit of showing a solid cloud mass when it actually ends up being just extremely thin wispy clouds that barely inhibit cooling.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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There has been quite a few showers from 4pm thru just a little bit ago in the Kirkland - Bothell area. Currently 54° here in downtown Woodinville.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone sees what they want to see!   

I see plenty of dry, pleasant days ahead here... and most of the precip focused to the south where its needed.   A very nice change of pace.

That is of course after tonight and tomorrow when all the rain is focused to the north.  😃

 

Oh I wasn’t talking about you. Lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Perhaps. I actually think the 10th percentile is way too optimistic right now. The 12z EPS 10th percentile is at 2.47” in the next two weeks for PDX. The minimum of all 50 members is 1.11”. Median is 4.11”. 

I would put money on us staying below the 10th percentile if anyone is game. Theoretically, your odds are extremely good. 

No thanks. I rather take my chances in the Squid Game

Betting Lets Go GIF by Justin

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00Z GFS shows a bullseye of much drier than normal over inland areas of western WA for the rest of October...

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-5724800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

No thanks. I rather take my chances in the Squid Game

Betting Lets Go GIF by Justin

My sons told me to watch that show... who would take those odds??   455 out of 456 (99.8%) chance of being shot in the head for a 1 in 456 chance of being rich.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...I have a very interesting list of Octobers that averaged below 52.0 for the first half of October from 1945 to present at SEA.  This is regardless of ENSO and is pretty astonishing.  This year came in number 6 on the list.

1946 - 49.7 - Cold snowy November and cold snowy January.

1949 - 50.2 - Huge winter

1955 - 51.8 - Consistently cold and snowy winter

1968 - 50.9 - Huge winter

1973 - 50.8 - Cool winter (probably the weakest of the bunch)

1981 - 50.8 - Major cold outbreak and snow in January

1983 - 51.6 - Very cold December

1990 - 51.6 - Epic December

2021 - 51.3 - ?

All in all a really strong batch of winters for just screening the years with one set of criteria.

 

 

 

Unfortunately there are no Niña/-QBO years on that list. Have to be careful with this type of analysis since you’re looking at a conglomeration of variables and differential/state dependent outcomes.

Furthermore, it’s debatable whether early/mid-20th century winters should even be considered as analogs in this day an age. The systemic mean state is so far removed from that now. 

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8/10 of these years are -QBO.

Canonical +EPO/-PNA/GOA trough response when coincident w/ La Niña. So not surprising at all.

E9A64BF5-8ECA-45C2-9FE3-DBCCB82E7ABB.gif

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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Unfortunately there are no Niña/-QBO years on that list. Have to be careful with this type of analysis since you’re looking at a conglomeration of variables and differential/state dependent outcomes.

Furthermore, it’s debatable whether early/mid-20th century winters should even be considered as analogs in this day an age. The systemic mean state is so far removed from that now. 

All analog lives matter.

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00Z ECMWF is coming in much wetter by day 7 and likely beyond... similar to its 12Z run.    GFS is probably out to lunch.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF is coming in much wetter by day 7 and likely beyond... similar to its 12Z run.    GFS is probably out to lunch.

Is that a surprise to anyone?

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF is coming in much wetter by day 7 and likely beyond... similar to its 12Z run.    GFS is probably out to lunch.

Yeah, these two models cannot be farther apart right now. Through next week, the Euro is showing only about 2" more rain. Euro been way too consistent on the rainfall. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like a nice evening in Eugene.

And the #9 Ducks are not as impressive as that ranking indicates as Andrew said earlier.   They might end up winning... but they look sloppy against a 1-4 team.

Oregon wins, Cal covers

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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It's rather interesting how the period of ridging has nearly vanished on the models now.  Looks mostly active and cool for the remainder of the month with just a brief break.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

8/10 of these years are -QBO.

Canonical +EPO/-PNA/GOA trough response when coincident w/ La Niña. So not surprising at all.

E9A64BF5-8ECA-45C2-9FE3-DBCCB82E7ABB.gif

Some of those had really good outcomes here though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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52 minutes ago, MossMan said:

52/50 on the day. Massive temp swing! 

Currently 50 and raining.

.54” so far on the day, 2.04” for the month. 

Amazing how low your max temps have stayed the last two days.  It wouldn't be surprising if you have set some kind of a record for consecutive max temps so low this early.  The max temps down this way the last two days have been somewhat of a disappointment, but it's hard to complain after such a long cold snap.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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EC precip totals

EC precip totals.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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71/41 on the day for a +2.5 departure. Airport was cooler as usual.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Here is an excellent graphic showing the SSW in progress.

temp10anim.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The average of the past 20 CFS runs has a cold January for us.  All of the long range models like January this winter.  I'm still really reluctant to go with that month as much as I want it.  Has to happen sometime I guess.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I'm still not sold the QBO is going to really be minus this winter.  The numerical data for the 50mb level shows it reluctant to fall.  You'll also notice 2007 was balls to the wall minus by now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

As long as that SSW doesn't do what it did to us last time...maybe give us that Asian 2020/2021 winter. Wouldn't that be nice.

I think the one last winter caused the cold event in February.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Unfortunately there are no Niña/-QBO years on that list. Have to be careful with this type of analysis since you’re looking at a conglomeration of variables and differential/state dependent outcomes.

Furthermore, it’s debatable whether early/mid-20th century winters should even be considered as analogs in this day an age. The systemic mean state is so far removed from that now. 

IE - Odds are low that anything cold happens this winter.

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5 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Sorry I meant the polar vortex that just sat up there for months blocking all the cold and giving Asia records.

Well -PNA/+EPO will tend to focus the lion’s share of cold into Russia/Siberia. It’s a Putin pattern for sure.

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Going to hit some high lakes with my daughter today. Could be the last good opportunity of the year.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It's starting to look like our nice day may not happen.  The cloud line is further south than models had indicated.  I hate this pattern, but it's going to collapse tomorrow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

That’s true of every winter.

We usually get some cold weather most winters.  Sometimes it isn't much though.

Quite frankly I think you're being overly gloomy about this one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Well -PNA/+EPO will tend to focus the lion’s share of cold into Russia/Siberia. It’s a Putin pattern for sure.

Then why did they get it last winter with +QBO?  You must realize things aren't going according to script lately.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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One thing that's going to be interesting to see is if we get one of our infamous late October Arctic outbreaks with that SSW going on right now.  Very possible the models just aren't reacting to it yet.  If we get that this will easily be one of the coldest Octobers ever recorded if not the coldest.

Looking at the global SST maps it's apparent we have a full blown Nina / -PDO right now.  The PDO had already been low, but now it's obviously tanked.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I know there are some wind lovers on here. From Nws Reno for tomorrow: 

we are  
  becoming increasingly concerned with the potential for wind gusts  
  exceeding 60 MPH, particularly for South Lake Tahoe, the Sierra  
  Front, and for the North Valleys (downslope potential off  
  of Peavine mountain).  

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's starting to look like our nice day may not happen.  The cloud line is further south than models had indicated.  I hate this pattern, but it's going to collapse tomorrow.

Yeah. I just woke up and expected to see some sun; but no only, only a solid status deck. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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