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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Need a pipeline to ship all the water to directly to Joshua in Lake Oswego! 

Haha. Good idea. Or, it could just freakin’ rain here.

I have visited the Columbia River Gorge after some heavy rainfall and it’s just awesome. Same with Silver Falls State Park. I would love to see Snoqualmie Falls in its full splendor. 

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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess we will find out.  All I know is like where we're at, except I wish we were looking at positive QBO this winter.  At this point the minus QBO is still only possible.   It hasn't gotten to the 50mb level yet, and the higher levels are already flipping.  2007-08 was a profoundly minus QBO.

I recall Phil mentioned a while back, but correct me if I'm wrong, that the QBO at 50mb has more of an impact on the weather patterns than the 30mb level. Is that right?

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Two lows track inland well south of Seattle on this GFS run.  Incredible jet suppression for this early.  The height anomalies are insane for much of the run as well.  Kind of makes you wonder where winter may go.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah a very prolonged period of troughing and a definite wind storm pattern.

Pretty amazing stuff for this early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

I recall Phil mentioned a while back, but correct me if I'm wrong, that the QBO at 50mb has more of an impact on the weather patterns than the 30mb level. Is that right?

I'm guessing it does.  30mb is very high and the air extremely thin up there.  I think 50mb and even 70mb are more important.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Two lows track inland well south of Seattle on this GFS run.  Incredible jet suppression for this early.  The height anomalies are insane for much of the run as well.  Kind of makes you wonder where winter may go.

This is going to be a winter for the ages, the winter of all winters, one for the record books, the one we've waited for our entire lives! C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF in 17 minutes

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It's pretty remarkable that no rain is shown for this area until Tuesday night now.  What was originally supposed to be a wet Sunday or Sunday night just vanished.  Still a sharp cold front though temperature wise.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's pretty remarkable that no rain is shown for this area until Tuesday night now.  What was originally supposed to be a wet Sunday or Sunday night just vanished.  Still a sharp cold front though temperature wise.

Yeah the best dynamics and jet support has trended south, south, south focusing on southern OR and northern CA.

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Teleconnection wise this pattern coming up is really an oddball.  We will be in an extremely suppressed jet / deep trough and yet the PNA and EPO will both be either neutral of positive.  As far as I can tell the main driver is going to be that crazy west based -NAO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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48 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah the best dynamics and jet support has trended south, south, south focusing on southern OR and northern CA.

They need it more than we do.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Well, well, well...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_10.png

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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519 heights just off the WA Coast at day 9 / 10 on the 0z ECMWF.  Wow!

The GFS and ECMWF agree on an extraordinary pattern developing for this time of year early in week two.  Should be fun to see how the details work out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Meanwhile we actually have a seasonably cool night developing here.  Already down to 50.  Not terrible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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EC Wind Gusts.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Models really want to give at least a portion of the region up north a windstorm in a little over a week.

Night shift Rob?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Pretty crazy finish to the ECMWF.  A big windstorm for some and then heights fall below 540 over SEA with afternoon temps in the upper 40s on day 10.  Looks like a top tier cold October is still on the table.  Not mention active.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Lester certainly takes the cold spot award for Western WA tonight with a current temp of 38 while OLM sits at 54.  Even here it's down to 48 with some benefit of the same dry air seepage that's making Lester so cool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Very smoky out there. HIO AQIs are reading between 100-150. Anyone know where this is coming from?

Could just be an inversion combined with normal emissions from vehicles and industry.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Lester certainly takes the cold spot award for Western WA tonight with a current temp of 38 while OLM sits at 54.  Even here it's down to 48 with some benefit of the same dry air seepage that's making Lester so cool.

A ghost town has a weather station? Juat curious.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Could just be an inversion combined with normal emissions from vehicles and industry.

Was thinking that initially but noticed the smoke was extremely dense to the west of Hillsboro and towards the coast range around sunset. Downtown PDX looked pretty clear. The smoke has been drifting east through the evening and tonight. It just literally smells like something burning out there now.

Need this front to come through and mix out the airmass asap.

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Down to 44F. Pleasant night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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7 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

But do they need it more than Joshua in Portland? According to his posts, it’s pretty much a desert down there now 

Yes, they need it more than we do here. It’s not a competition though. The entirety of Oregon and California needs much more rain. Models are looking very promising for the northern half of California and all of Oregon.

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7 hours ago, nwsnow said:

Very smoky out there. HIO AQIs are reading between 100-150. Anyone know where this is coming from?

Backyard burns. I drove down the Santiam canyon yesterday afternoon and there were hundreds of slash piles burning. The whole canyon was filled with smoke. 
 

Your smoke probably came from the coast range/rural Washington/Yamhill county. Calm down city folkx.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Backyard burns. I drove down the Santiam canyon yesterday afternoon and there were hundreds of slash piles burning. The whole canyon was filled with smoke. 
 

Your smoke probably came from the coast range/rural Washington/Yamhill county. Calm down city folkx.

You never see widespread burning like that up here... seems like Oregonians are always burning something (including grass fields) and messing with air quality.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You never see widespread burning like that up here... seems like Oregonians are always burning something (including grass fields).   😃

You don’t live in an agricultural area. And there is far less field burning here than there used to be. 
 

But I am sure there is slash burning in logging areas of Western Washington. The burning in the Santiam Canyon was mostly debris piles from wildfire cleanup. Also remember we had a massive damaging ice storm down here. People are still burning debris piles from that. It dried out so early down here we had red flag warnings in mid-April and couldn’t burn anything after that point. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You don’t live in an agricultural area. 

I don't remember widespread burning in Minnesota either.    Sounds more like something they do 3rd world countries.  😉

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't remember widespread burning in Minnesota either.    Sounds more like something they do 3rd world countries.  😉

I don’t know about Minnesota, but it is pretty common in spring in Oklahoma and Kansas. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But I am sure there is slash burning in logging areas of Western Washington. The burning in the Santiam Canyon was mostly debris piles from wildfire cleanup. Also remember we had a massive damaging ice storm down here. People are still burning debris piles from that. It dried out so early down here we had red flag warnings in mid-April and couldn’t burn anything after that point. 

Maybe there is... but the only time I have ever seen it smoky here is from wildfires.    And we have had a couple significant ice storms as well in the last 15 years.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe there is... but the only time I have ever seen it smoky here is from wildfires.    And we have a couple significant ice storms as well in the last 15 years.

Lol. Sorry. I forgot who I was talking to. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't remember widespread burning in Minnesota either.    Sounds more like something they do 3rd world countries.  😉

Gonna be a long day, folks.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna be a long day, folks.

Yes... we should talk about Oregon's burning practices all day.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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