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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Just 10 days away!

GFS Temp.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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56/53 is the final number today with 0.01” and only a couple small peeks of blue sky very noice. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just 10 days away!

GFS Temp.png

If the 18z GFS is correct there is going to be frost for many of us soon.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

56/53 is the final number today with 0.01” and only a couple small peeks of blue sky very noice. 

BTW...for your stats it should be highs 32 or below and lows 32 or below.  That's how the NWS does it at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Nice to see the temps lower inland than on the coast already.  Early for that on the highs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s the problem with employing stringent thresholds to describe fluid phenomena. The summer/autumn of 1978 did technically meet La Niña criteria, however. And the atmosphere reflected a more -ENSO type circulation into/through the winter, as well.

Where to draw these lines of distinction is debatable, as there are multiple examples of weaker SSTA reflections that coincided with more prominent atmospheric signals, and vice versa.

Regardless, removing 1978/79 doesn’t meaningfully change the frequency distribution (even if it swings then mean a tad).

Looks like it came up a bit short on the ONI reanalysis.

I agree though that the overall correlation is pretty weak and this stuff often falls into the trap of confirmation bias. Terrible winters like 1999-00 and 1966-67 had pretty reasonably cool stretches in October and led to nothing. I think Jim is talking mainly about the top tier cold months, but the sample size among those is so weak from recent decades that it's hard to draw any kind of pattern.

FWIW there are also some years like October 2016 grouped in with the cold Octobers even though they were generally a bit warmer than average in the region. That month was a total freakshow though and probably the cloudiest October on record here.

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...for your stats it should be highs 32 or below and lows 32 or below.  That's how the NWS does it at least.

Yea I know it’s just easier this way lol

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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Looking at the latest sat pic it's pretty hard to believe how much of the state is clear.  You would never guess it the way it looks here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like it came up a bit short on the ONI reanalysis.

I agree though that the overall correlation is pretty weak and this stuff often falls into the trap of confirmation bias. Terrible winters like 1999-00 and 1966-67 had pretty reasonably cool stretches in October and led to nothing. I think Jim is talking mainly about the top tier cold months, but the sample size among those is so weak from recent decades that it's hard to draw any kind of pattern.

FWIW there are also some years like October 2016 grouped in with the cold Octobers even though they were generally a bit warmer than average in the region. That month was a total freakshow though and probably the cloudiest October on record here.

Yeah...what I'm talking about works well for the really cold Octobers.  Still remains to be seen if this one will be, but I would love to see it.  Still can't believe we haven't had a really cold October in a La Nina season since 1984.  Especially with all of the October cold snaps this century.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

1614527576_ScreenShot2021-10-03at7_00_16PM.thumb.png.10f4e659fe4db25c15d2e04be49ef048.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the 18z GFS is correct there is going to be frost for many of us soon.

Only needs to get down to 36!

Though knowing SeaTac it will stay above 50° lol

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For those scoring at home, regardless of how the next four weeks play December is still going be mash potatoes and gravy.  

Probably too kold for naked badminton huh. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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16-17 was the last winter in which we had a sub-freezing high.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.thumb.png.a949e9ab98ffb18f25a61119bc698e68.png

That's legit

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Every single day on the 18z runs below average. All 16 of them. Some by -7 to -10 departures. Niña!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Went clothe shopping with couple of friends today, both Seattle natives. They both were adamant about their appreciation of this cooler weather.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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40 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.thumb.png.a949e9ab98ffb18f25a61119bc698e68.png

That's legit

Will it be the kiss of death or a sign of an epic winter we shall see. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

16-17 was the last winter in which we had a sub-freezing high.

Wow!  That is a shocking stat.  I had two last winter alone.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

1614527576_ScreenShot2021-10-03at7_00_16PM.thumb.png.10f4e659fe4db25c15d2e04be49ef048.png

I may be heading out there in about 3 weeks, I'll be anxiously watching the weather there as it gets closer.  I would love to see some cold/snow, but I'm coming out to watch my son, and I've heard Bobcat stadium can get pretty brutal as it gets into late October into November, so maybe it holds off until after the game 😄

 

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Never too cold. Most people bring their own personal fluffer to address those issues.

Good way to avoid the shrinkage concerns but duct tape and hand warmers are a good alternative. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

16-17 was the last winter in which we had a sub-freezing high.

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

1614527576_ScreenShot2021-10-03at7_00_16PM.thumb.png.10f4e659fe4db25c15d2e04be49ef048.png

We were thinking of hitting up

wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I may be heading out there in about 3 weeks, I'll be anxiously watching the weather there as it gets closer.  I would love to see some cold/snow, but I'm coming out to watch my son, and I've heard Bobcat stadium can get pretty brutal as it gets into late October into November, so maybe it holds off until after the game 😄

 

Montana teams are kind of crushing it this year! We went to a couple of snow games our first couple of years here. It is always a fun atmosphere but the energy in a snow game brings it up to another level! 

Mid to late October is normally when we see our first significant snows so this year looks to be right on track. As long as we don't see below zero weather again this month then I'm okay with it!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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44 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I may be heading out there in about 3 weeks, I'll be anxiously watching the weather there as it gets closer.  I would love to see some cold/snow, but I'm coming out to watch my son, and I've heard Bobcat stadium can get pretty brutal as it gets into late October into November, so maybe it holds off until after the game 😄

 

Your boy plays football out there, thats awesome!!

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We were thinking of hitting up

wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!

Yeah...Colorado looks pretty nice next week!

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

Looks like Medford's last one was 1/6/2017 as well. I thought they had one in Feb 2019 but 34 was their coldest.

I guess go east of the cascades for the cold.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel. 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  That is a shocking stat.  I had two last winter alone.

Indeed. This is a godawful location for cold and snow, you would be incredibly depressed here. And it’s getting to the point where it feels like we won’t ever have another Arctic airmass impact us.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel. 

That’s what unabated land access to the arctic circle will do! Some wild anomalies from February 1899 down there since the avg is actually quite mild. Of course “averages” in that corner of the world, at that time of year, are merely a rough composite of highly variable weather; the median of the fuzziest trendline in the world.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Indeed. This is a godawful location for cold and snow, you would be incredibly depressed here. And it’s getting to the point where it feels like we won’t ever have another Arctic airmass impact us.

Went from January 2012 to February 2019 without seeing a single subfreezing high in this part of the city.

February 2014 the airport was shrouded with thick midlevel cloudcover for two days while we weren’t. Hence the pair of 31F and 29F while all the frost here melted under the increasingly powerful sun and 35F temps. When it finally did snow by surprise on the 8th, it was gone by noon and 40F by 1pm.

December 2016 was close, but no cigar. Dry and 34F. Airport a few hundred feet higher. Follow the dry adiabatic line and do the math, they notched one by a hair.

Then February 2019 came along with two in one week (in addition to like 8 sub-35F’s), then one in January 2020, and another two in a row in February 2021. Three years in a row. I know it seems bleak but you’ll see another in due time. Your area in particular is good at trapping cold air near the surface (especially being in Springfield vs DT Eugene) should you get an airmass down there. Our region’s dull weather is often streaky and there will always be some event to snap it.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Are you freeking kidding me!  We have cold air in place with northerly surface gradient and the GFS run stops?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS (Pivotal) stuck on Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

Not a bad frame to be stuck on! lol

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS (Pivotal) stuck on Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

This is killing me! 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not a bad frame to be stuck on! lol

Maybe a metaphor for the coming winter?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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