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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Want to see it but don’t feel like getting peacock streaming just to see that…just watched the new dune movie and thought it was awesome though! 

We just watched The Trip which was on the top banner tonight on Netflix and released this week.    What a movie... its basically a Norwegian version of Fargo.   Its hilarious and seriously gruesome at the same time.   Highly recommend it! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How about this for a shift and plunge? At 5:25pm it was 68 with SE winds sustained at 22mph/30mph gusts…. Then it suddenly shifted to WSW and temps plunged to 57pm by 6:25pm. 
 

11f drop in one hour. 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thanks I really had no idea

It honestly did look like a few flakes were flying from the video. But it's weird because Twisp is hanging around 50F. But I think the trajectory of some of those rain droplets made it look like they were flakes. 

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00z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) It's not much, but the trough may be showing a trend to nudge just a few notches further east, and thus the wave development and explosive cyclogenesis/bombogenesis also further east towards ~130 W maybe even a touch inside of it. Obviously we'd need this trend to continue for the next 8-12 runs if it were to have any real impact. I will say we've seen these trends pop up many times in the past and after a continuance of 10-12 runs or so they do end up with a fairly significant result whether that's tracking colder air, or a low pressure system track. I'll keep an eye on this.

trend-gfs-2021102200-f048.500h_anom.na.gif

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) It's not much, but the trough may be showing a trend to nudge just a few notches further east, and thus the wave development and explosive cyclogenesis/bombogenesis also further east towards ~130 W maybe even a touch inside of it. Obviously we'd need this trend to continue for the next 8-12 runs if it were to have any real impact. I will say we've seen these trends pop up and after a continuance of 10-12 runs or so they do end up with a fairly significant result whether that's tracking colder air, or a low pressure system track. I'll keep an eye on this.

trend-gfs-2021102200-f048.500h_anom.na.gif

Night shift?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Intriguing GFS run.  A couple of impressive baroclinic bands and then a chilly interlude to close out the month.  Looks like WA will be on the cold side of line much of the time with afternoon temps only upper 40s to low 50s on most days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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No doubt the rain finally hit with a vengeance tonight.  I was beginning to wonder if the drying east wind would wipe out a lot of the moisture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good lawd. and I thought that new Halloween Kills movie was supposed to be scary.... 🤣

Cracking Up Lol GIF

Saw it on Peacock when it first came out last week, we had the pleasure of having Peacock Premium for "free" as a Comcast customer. 

Anyway, pretty much agree with you... movie felt dull and boring, ending was way too predictable. In fact, this one was more of a 1978 direct sequel which imo kinda made the 2018 movie somewhat pointless. Hoping the last one will deliver... Jamie Lee Curtis got paid to do nothing in this movie. 🤣🤣

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I really like this GFS run.   A lot of action and a nice little cold snap to finish out the month.  It appears to be showing three pretty cold nights at this point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

What happened to our warm November?

General theme for November is a retraction of the North Pacific jet, or as Jim says, a “shut down” Pacific.

This will finally allow arctic air to build up in western/central Canada (where-as the current pattern is as hostile as physically possible for arctic air up there).

I do suspect there will be a warm/ridgy period in November as we transition away from the raging jet into a more canonical cold season/La Niña type wavetrain. We might get “stuck in the middle” for a bit..long enough for November to average warm across much of the PNW region.

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32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) It's not much, but the trough may be showing a trend to nudge just a few notches further east, and thus the wave development and explosive cyclogenesis/bombogenesis also further east towards ~130 W maybe even a touch inside of it. Obviously we'd need this trend to continue for the next 8-12 runs if it were to have any real impact. I will say we've seen these trends pop up many times in the past and after a continuance of 10-12 runs or so they do end up with a fairly significant result whether that's tracking colder air, or a low pressure system track. I'll keep an eye on this.

trend-gfs-2021102200-f048.500h_anom.na.gif

Ensemble suppor

40E5E46D-EC1F-41E1-81E3-91B1DE596644.png

59F0699F-D679-423F-818F-C6370FB55178.png

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I really like this GFS run.   A lot of action and a nice little cold snap to finish out the month.  It appears to be showing three pretty cold nights at this point.

Go figure. It was the most boring run in days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We just watched The Trip which was on the top banner tonight on Netflix and released this week.    What a movie... its basically a Norwegian version of Fargo.   Its hilarious and seriously gruesome at the same time.   Highly recommend it! 

Will have to check that out. Lots of movies that come out recently have been unoriginal and dull IMO but some do catch me by surprise sometimes. Watched malignant when it came out that was pretty good. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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1" even.

  • Rain 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Go figure. It was the most boring run in days. 

I'm just not into the windstorm possibility.  I kind of like baroclinic bands / AR events because they often lead to cold weather.

As for the possible windstorm...I just don't see it.  If a low were to come into picture pinwheeling around the parent low I would be worried, but it isn't there.  Lows like the one being shown just don't track that close to the coast in all but a handful of rare situations.  Amazingly two managed to do it in January 1880 and the results were amazing as we all know.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

General theme for November is a retraction of the North Pacific jet, or as Jim says, a “shut down” Pacific.

This will finally allow arctic air to build up in western/central Canada (where-as the current pattern is as hostile as physically possible for arctic air up there).

I do suspect there will be a warm/ridgy period in November as we transition away from the raging jet into a more canonical cold season/La Niña type wavetrain. We might get “stuck in the middle” for a bit..long enough for November to average warm across much of the PNW region.

Yeah...my confidence isn't high for a warm November, but it's pretty common after a cold October in a La Nina.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Warm November?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I'm just fine torching in November. Hopefully means the colder stuff holds off until it can be useful in December & January.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

Analog?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

Fired a prop gun that was supposed to have just blanks in it. They use the prop guns so they don't have to simulate recoil.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Speaking of movies…apparently there was some accident this afternoon with  Alec Baldwin shooting a prop gun and someone got killed and another injured. How is that even possible? I thought it was a joke or fake news but apparently it’s very real. He must feel horrible. 

Really tragic and sad. 

How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Analog?

Looks like a similar incident happened in 1993. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Really tragic and sad. 

How is it possible? This isn't the first time something like this happened in Hollywood. In 1993 Brandon Lee, the son of Bruce Lee was killed on the set shooting the movie "The Crow" when he was struck by a bullet. The gun was supposed to be shooting blank, but somehow there was a bullet in there. 

Yeah I was just about to say Brandon lee in 93 was the other time which I didn’t know about until I heard about the story today. Have a hard time believing they will even finish the movie after this happened. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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Anyways…back to the weather we’re up over 0.40” now have a good shot at going over 1/2” of rain by midnight. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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The GFS spits out a three day average of 42.5 the final three days of the month at McChord.  Should be enough to assure this will be a solidly cold month overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm November?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

I'm actually hoping for it.  That would be a great day right there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS spits out a three day average of 42.5 the final three days of the month at McChord.  Should be enough to assure this will be a solidly cold month overall.

Any reason why you typically use McChord as a baseline? 

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