Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, snow drift said:

An epic November cold pattern usually thaws in January or weakens by that point. February usually works out though.

It's very hard for us to sustain major cold anomalies  for more than a month. Plenty of Januaries that delivered something following a November event, though. The chances of a historic January are always low regardless.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any opinions on what the most complete NW winter of all time was? Maybe pre-1900 and then post 1900? 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any opinions on what the most complete NW winter of all time was? Maybe pre-1900 and then post 1900? 

Maybe another one post 2000 too. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Maybe another one post 2000 too. 

Either 2008-09 or 2016-17

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any opinions on what the most complete NW winter of all time was? Maybe pre-1900 and then post 1900? 

No idea about pre 1900 and really before the late 1970’s…But for me the most complete winters were (for all active weather events) 1992-93, 1995-96, 1996-97, and 2006-07. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM showed the low kinda stalled and meandered for a few hours with pressure if 946-947mb before lifting north and NW into Vancouver Island. Still not much of an impact for most of the region but considering how potent this storm is, the stalling could potentially prolong and pump the wind gusts into the region for some expanded advisories. Lots of coastal impact. We’ll see.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Depends what you mean by major.

2010-11 had a subsequent arctic airmass in February.

2006-07 had one in January.

1996-97 had a very similar pattern repeat in late December.

1985-86 had a fake cold December and then a very active February.

1978-79 stayed frigid through early February.

1959-60 had major snows in January and March.

1946-47 had  subsequent airmasses in January. 

1921-22 stayed cold throughout.

1911-12 had a subsequent airmass in early January. 

1900-01 had a very snowy January.

1896-97 had subsequent airmasses in January and March.

1887-88 had an epic January.

1872-73 and 1859-60 both had very cold Decembers.

So it's actually much more common to see follow up events than not after a November cold/snow event. 

And the there's the fact that our sample size is simply too small to make an accurate depiction of our winter. Analogs stop being viable in any sense pre-1960s and are ill advised before the 1990s. With AGW and natural flux in pattern tendencies it's almost impossible to say. As great as some of these outcomes were, they could have done better (or worse) if the die had been rolled in a different way.

There is never an analog for the winter that's never happened before... Just look at 2018-19! El Niño with no hope into the final stretch of the season, people bringing their boats out to clean them. Then, POW! Huge, memorable February, the best such month in a generation.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

It's very hard for us to sustain major cold anomalies  for more than a month. Plenty of Januaries that delivered something following a November event, though. The chances of a historic January are always low regardless.

I'm talking November 85' followed by January 79' etc. I doubt that has ever happened. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I wish there were better records for 1861-62. 

Me too.

The records we do have all paint a pretty astounding picture, though.

Astoria had a 28.2 monthly mean in January, Fort Yamhill near McMinnville had a 23.9 monthly mean, Fort Vancouver had a 21.3 monthly mean, and Fort Dalles had a 10.9 monthly mean. All of these blow away their modern records.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Either 2008-09 or 2016-17

Yeah I’d say 18-19 possibly but that was late winter early spring. February 2019 was pretty incredible in the fact the highest temp achieved the whole month was just 48…never hit 50 once which in the last 15 years hasn’t happened in any other month. Even after the big snows in the first half of the month there were plenty of days with snow in the air and a couple marginal events in March.

 I’d have to say up here in western WA 08-09 was the best of the 21st century. Obviously there’s December 2008…but we also managed a little snow here in February and March 2009. 16-17 was better for Oregon than us…just solely based on the January 2017 event which didn’t amount to much up here…still a pretty chilly month. 

  • Like 2

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Managed to pick up 0.15” at home today…good enough to push us to 2.02” for the month with more coming. 

  • Like 1

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13-14 and 16-17 were the best for here in the 21st century so far.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

13-14 and 16-17 were the best for here in the 21st century so far.

December 2013 came out of nowhere... Just a perfect combination of clear weather, long nights, snowcover, and a decent airmass. That -10 at KEUG will stand the test of time.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

No idea about pre 1900 and really before the late 1970’s…But for me the most complete winters were (for all active weather events) 1992-93, 1995-96, 1996-97, and 2006-07. 

I did enjoy the active weather of 95/96!  That ones stuck in my mind :) 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Quite a different look here today compared to what I left yesterday.  Clouds did finally move in/thicken up mid-afternoon

AEB706BA-9137-4E24-A21C-3590132EA503.jpeg

BC5C2EE5-BA07-46A9-A09A-1620FC8FD122.jpeg

I see you found the M!

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

So far, this weather system has been a complete dud (for Everett, Washington/north sound area).  We've had nothing other than some light showers, and even then, it wasn't much.  I don't expect much from this "latest local news hype piece."  Hmm... I should come up with a better term than that.  It's been weirdly warm here too.  It's usually colder in Everett, but yesterday we hit 69-70F degrees and today was also 65F at one point.

Bring us some rain!!!!! :D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Well I might be dating myself, but Dec 1968 and Jan 1969 must be considered top tier. 2 major snowfalls accompanied by a static Arctic air mass that lasted the entire month of Jan 1969 

My grandparents seem to remember January 1969 and November 1985 the most. They also remember the Columbus Day storm very well always love talking to my grandpa about his memories from that day. 

  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 here in the swamp but dry for the moment and no wind to speak of.

Candles and matches are out.  Flashlights all charged up and extra batteries nearby.  Also got out my oil lantern and gassed up my generator.

Hope I don't need any of those items.

  • Like 3
  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, iFred said:

Currently trying to compress images and clean up space for the forum. Since I removed the upload restrictions in November '18, we were close to running out of space. I have put in something that limits file uploads to under 100mb per post, this means no more 15 minute videos of dark clouds in suburban DC. If anyone wants to upload longer videos, either compress it or break it apart.

Sh*t…

I just put the finishing touches on my double-time time lapse video of the June 2021 heatwave.  Lesson learned for dragging my feet on that.

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • lol 2
  • Sad 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’d say 18-19 possibly but that was late winter early spring. February 2019 was pretty incredible in the fact the highest temp achieved the whole month was just 48…never hit 50 once which in the last 15 years hasn’t happened in any other month. Even after the big snows in the first half of the month there were plenty of days with snow in the air and a couple marginal events in March.

 I’d have to say up here in western WA 08-09 was the best of the 21st century. Obviously there’s December 2008…but we also managed a little snow here in February and March 2009. 16-17 was better for Oregon than us…just solely based on the January 2017 event which didn’t amount to much up here…still a pretty chilly month. 

SEA had 2"+ of snow every month from Dec-Mar in 2008-09. Only winter on record that has achieved that.

  • Like 3

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52F and cloudy but dry. Had some rain earlier.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

13-14 and 16-17 were the best for here in the 21st century so far.

2013-14 was amazing in Eugene and Corvallis. Overall wasn’t much of a winter here outside those cold snaps. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Salem I would say 2008-09 was probably slightly better the 2016-17 though not quite as consistently cold. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z MM5-NAM wow if only the jet support was there and the low didn't weaken. Look at this track!

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2021102300.naminit/images_d2/slp.69.0000.gif

MM5 and even past runs of the GFS want to weaken this system way too fast, I suspect we could be looking at a near YAZ to YYJ landfall around 968mb to 975mb. 

In fact I would lean towards a YYJ landfall

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Moon is pretty bright tonight even through the high clouds. (Sh*t camera quality need a better one) Tempting to get out on the kayak. 

4FC10567-DDDE-4DAE-943A-6AB734EF25F1.jpeg

  • Like 4

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

MM5 and even past runs of the GFS want to weaken this system way too fast, I suspect we could be looking at a near YAZ to YYJ landfall around 968mb to 975mb. 

In fact I would lean towards a YYJ landfall

 

00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis forecasts Sundays low to track east-southeast and deepening to 968mb at 140 W? That seems a bit earlier with rapid cyclogenesis to me compared to what is modeled. That may favor a further north trajectory....

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
 

00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis forecasts Sundays low to track east-southeast and deepening to 968mb at 140 W? That seems a bit earlier with rapid cyclogenesis to me compared to what is modeled. That may favor a further north trajectory....

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

I see that but with a bit of suppression and an initial SE track before closing I think W. Wa is still in the crosshair's.

If the jet flattens out before then I would agree on the earlier turn NNE

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I see that but with a bit of suppression and an initial SE track before closing I think W. Wa is still in the crosshair's.

If the jet flattens out before then I would agree on the earlier turn NNE

Yeah, my thoughts too. That wave is rocketing east along the strong jet. If you were to look at wv loop right right now at first glance you'd think this low is just going to blast east and hammer us...

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=full_disk&x=8952&y=2920&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=1&p[0]=band_09&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

image.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
The low initially is about 70 miles east-southeast from 18z, 12z, but it still fills and weakens resulting in a relaxed gradient field. Meh

I don't know, this one just feels different. It just bumps closer and closer to being problematic each run, but always falls apart too quickly. It's like a bad dream when you're trying to reach for something or run to something and it's JUST out of reach. So close, but JUUUUST out of reach. 

  • Like 2
  • lol 1

--------------------

Sean Nyberg

Be kind.

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   T:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...