Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I don't know, this one just feels different. It just bumps closer and closer to being problematic each run, but always falls apart too quickly. It's like a bad dream when you're trying to reach for something or run to something and it's JUST out of reach. So close, but JUUUUST out of reach. 

Yeah seeing a 940-943mb low offshore is crazy and it will seem as if it's going to demolish us. It will be fun nonetheless to watch it all develop on IR/WV loop.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 34 minutes

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah seeing a 940-943mb low offshore is crazy and it will seem as if it's going to demolish us. It will be fun nonetheless to watch it all develop on IR/WV loop.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 34 minutes

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound.
But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size.
That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. :) that sounds perfect!

  • Like 7
  • Rain 1

--------------------

Sean Nyberg

Be kind.

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   T:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound.
But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size.
That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. :) that sounds perfect!

Late June 2021, anything is possible now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Huskies look terrible 

It's just unbelievable.  Dylan Morris stares like a deer in headlights at the sidelines before every play waiting to be told what to do and then proceeds to screw up most of the plays anyways.    He looks completely clueless.   How in the hell is he a QB at this level?  And why is Jimmy Lake so horrible at energizing the team.   Lake and the entire staff needs to be fired ASAP.    The Huskies might be one of the worst teams in the country this year.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's just unbelievable.  Dylan Morris stares like a deer in headlights at the sidelines before every play waiting to be told what to do and then proceeds to screw up most of the plays anyways.    He looks completely clueless.   How in the hell is he a QB at this level?  And why is Jimmy Lake so horrible at energizing the team.   Lake and the entire staff needs to be fired ASAP.    The Huskies might be one of the worst teams in the country this year.

Yea I feel bad for y’all. This just hurts to watch…. Arizona looks horrific also

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea I feel bad for y’all. This just hurts to watch…. Arizona looks horrific also

That's the comical part.  AZ is terrible and the Huskies look significantly worse!

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Phil said:

Andrew likes zonal flow, dude.

Boring.  It can be great for Tim or him, but not most of us.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the GFS goes for a major pattern change in week 2.  Much blockier and an opportunity for cold nights.  Great pattern to show off the remaining fall colors.  The cottonwoods should be great by then.  They are turning much better and earlier than normal here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound.
But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size.
That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. :) that sounds perfect!

The storm is going to be extraordinary, but the wind field is going to be pretty limited and mostly offshore.  The best bet for the Puget Sound Lowlands will be some fairly strong easterlies in the foothills.  To the average Joe the media hoopla about this is going to end up being much ado about nothing.  Such an amazing storm, but most people won't see much from it.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS goes for a major pattern change in week 2.  Much blockier and an opportunity for cold nights.  Great pattern to show off the remaining fall colors.  The cottonwoods should be great by then.  They are turning much better and earlier than normal here.

Earlier?   Looking at pics from October in past years... our cottonwoods are really slow to turn this year.  In some years they have been almost bare by this point.   Cottonwoods are sort of a boring fall color tree anyways compared to other trees around here.

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile the GFS goes for a pretty chilly day tomorrow with some places struggling to top 50.  Currently a cool 46 here.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS shows major blocking and a cold trough digging down the BC Coast late in the run.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

I would love to run out to the coast just to see the wave action! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies got lucky.   Showed up for one quarter and that was just barely enough. 

They'll probably lose their next four games. They can't run the ball or stop the run. They do have a shot at Wazzu though, because it's a rivalry game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

This is probably the deepest low I've ever seen in the position that is progged, but it's quite apparent it's going to have limited impact inland.  I hate seeing the media hype this kind of thing when the vast majority of the population with see nothing more than a typical fall storm.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

These deep central pressure storms also typically develop around the GoA and impact that region instead. This one just happens to be way further south. It's quite fascinating and one of these may end up hitting the region. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z NAM had some pretty strong winds Sunday morning, especially for the coast and EPSL. Those are really the main two places that have the highest shot of strong winds, imo. The low is filling too quickly so that by the time it gets to a spot favorable for winds up the Sound the gradient has laxed and it'll probably just be some breezy winds.

Ultimately I'm expecting a similar blow as yesterday here in MV, perhaps a bit stronger if things align right. Notable but nothing crazy.

index (1).png

  • Windy 1

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z NAM had some pretty strong winds Sunday morning, especially for the coast and EPSL. Those are really the main two places that have the highest shot of strong winds, imo. The low is filling too quickly so that by the time it gets to a spot favorable for winds up the Sound the gradient has laxed and it'll probably just be some breezy winds.

Ultimately I'm expecting a similar blow as yesterday here in MV, perhaps a bit stronger if things align right. Notable but nothing crazy.

index (1).png

I think a pretty good blow is possible here if the low is a tad further south than expected when the storm bottoms out.  If the low is straight west of us the Olympics really interfere with the east wind potential.  I just don't see a south wind event with this one.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. 

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1
  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a lot of time between now and Sunday morning. It'll be interesting to see if trends continue. Something is pushing these things farther east and south the last few runs. 

  • Like 2

--------------------

Sean Nyberg

Be kind.

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   T:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

I don’t understand the doubt from many in here given the trends. Sure, the media hype is ridiculous but there is serious potential. 

I've seen these very strong lows in this situation before and they almost invariably bottom out too far off shore.  This low is so exceptional that anything is possible I guess.  As I mentioned before we had two like this in January 1880 that both tracked across southern WA.  Normally a low of this strength has almost zero chance of tracking inland further south than Northern Vancouver Island.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. 

You heard it guys, no soccer! :(

  • Popcorn 1
  • Troll 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’ve picked up 0.04” since midnight at home. Have had some light rain out here on and off on the island throughout the night. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...