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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Lol watch this storm be the anti typhoon bust of 2016 and totally catch us off guard. Not counting on it. Looks like we had a low of 48 this morning. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol watch this storm be the anti typhoon bust of 2016 and totally catch us off guard. Not counting on it. Looks like we had a low of 48 this morning. 

Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. 

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Looks like the last couple GFS have things really drying out and turning mild by the end of the month. Just about 5-6 more days of rain and then severe clear. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. 

Here the 12Z NAM... slight shift east from 00Z run.

nam-nest-nw-mslp-1634990400-1634990400-1635202800-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. 

There has been a shift southward that puts it at a higher risk of getting us but the odds are still it doesn’t amount to much. Just seems like either way it’ll be weakening too though…Sometimes forecasts bust so we will see. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There has been a shift southward that puts it at a higher risk of getting us but the odds are still it doesn’t amount to much. Just seems like either way it’ll be weakening too though…Sometimes forecasts bust so we will see. 

Agree. It’s a weird storm with a weird track that is not typical of big winds around here.  

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Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. 

  • Rain 1

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1634947200-1634947200-1636243200-10.gif

Will have to get some more camping in late this month and next month. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Will have to get some more camping in late this month and next month. 

Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wind Advisory posted for the EPSL for tomorrow.  Gusts up to 45 mph.

Going to be an east wind out here tomorrow...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-5098400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol

Yeah the weathers looking good always love to get some camping in during off-season times. I’ve always been nervous about using those propane heaters in tents too…probably a good thing you kept opening the tent. I’ve never used one I just have a 0 degree sleeping bag and on nights when it got down to the upper 20s it’s been fine for me. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1634947200-1634947200-1636243200-10.gif

Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons! ;) 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons! ;) 

I would be good with a cold and snowy December and January too!  

Of course we will be in Hawaii for the entire second half of December... but December and January are when I cheer strongly for cold.    😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol

Same, I don’t trust using those things either.  I’d rather freeze at night knowing I’ll wake up

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55 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. 

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would be good with a cold and snowy December and January too!  

Of course we will be in Hawaii for the entire second half of December... but December and January are when I cheer strongly for cold.    😁

Lol ok.

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1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Agree. It’s a weird storm with a weird track that is not typical of big winds around here.  

There’s basically no pressure surge and the thing is essentially occluded before it makes landfall. It’s a deep low but it’s also a large system sitting in a “moat” of low pressure, so the gradient isn’t as tight as it might otherwise be.

Put me in the bearish camp on this one save the most exposed areas w/ the longest fetch. 

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21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

The GFS has been pretty consistent in hitting us with an AR late next next though. My gut is telling me that it will end up being most impactful north of us if it materializes. 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

Yeah... the AR coming up is the wild card but seems almost guaranteed to bring at least some significant rain down there to boost the October totals.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. 

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. 

Strong offshore flow tomorrow will definitely limit rainfall totals out here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Waves breaking all over the place next week on the GFS, as the NPAC jet begins pulling back.

It marks the beginning of the evolution away from the ongoing quasi-zonal pattern, into an amplified, meridional type pattern for the month of November.

Should finally see some legitimate arctic air build into North America next month.

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s basically no pressure surge and the thing is essentially occluded before it makes landfall. It’s a deep low but it’s also a large system sitting in a “moat” of low pressure, so the gradient isn’t as tight as it might otherwise be.

Put me in the bearish camp on this one save the most exposed areas w/ the longest fetch. 

You do speak “Basic” !!! 
Nice analysis Phil 😊

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3 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

With that track, we're still going to see some potentially damaging winds, imo...

Probably not for the Seattle area though... flow will stay offshore into Monday with the low offshore and not moving inland to the north which is the track that causes the most problems here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

Not sure why you would root against the ridge... early November 1949 was very warm and ridgy.     It was also near 70 here in early November 2010.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

I’m totally fine if we torch for the next three weeks because nothing much in the way of winter weather happens down this way historically until late November anyway.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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