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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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1 minute ago, Joker said:

heard about a bombing cyclone. how many feet of snow we getting????

about 187 kilotons of tnt

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  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

My parents house is up that hill! It's a total pain in the a** sometimes with the blind corners (my mom actually got in a car accident up there recently due to someone speeding around a corner too fast) and potholes all over in the gravel but all the trees and vegetation up there really make it a beautiful drive in the fall. 

Yeah I did not encounter any cars but I could see those blind corners on the narrow road being quite an issue! Definitely no picture taking during those parts! Also there is one section where the washboard effect is so bad it wanted to bounce the back of my truck sideways even at a slow speed! But wow i do love that area! 

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12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Been pretty much dry here but I’ve been watching the showers go by just to my west. Somehow the rain knows you’re in a tent…

lol yes Mother Nature was a real jerk today. Oh well got to enjoy the nice weather yesterday and it’s nice to be able to test the effectiveness of the tent 0 water on the inside after 1/3” of rain roughly since I’ve been out here. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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...Oregon Coast...

   Scattered low-topped convection will develop within an environment
   characterized by very strong shear and weak instability but steep
   lapse rates. These storms may become capable of producing a few
   damaging gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes later Sunday
   afternoon and evening.
  • Storm 4
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51/45 today with 0.39" of rain. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The much-derided NAM came in a fair amount stronger with the winds overnight Sunday and into Monday vs 18z.

07z3kmBAM.png

07z00z3kmNAM.png

Still not particularly strong, but getting closer. Those speeds if they verified would be a pretty standard autumn storm.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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Mesoscales definitely speeding up the system in addition to shifting it eastward-- hmmm.....

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

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2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

I like the new “the swamp” name much better than the dots! 

  • Like 4

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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4 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

And empty the shelves went! 

tenor.gif

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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15 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

Since 1995 the majority of the large windstorms in my area have been under forecasted. Almost all of the hyped ones have flopped. 

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The problem is they trend north so if the models were showing it going south we would be in business but they have been west which even if it goes east it will end of being too far north.  The only hope is they have updated models to correct for this bias. 

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9 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

The problem is they trend north so if the models were showing it going south we would be in business but they have been west which even if it goes east it will end of being too far north.  The only hope is they have updated models to correct for this bias. 

I know what you are saying but that was hard to follow.

it’s going to be plenty windy for some power outages.

Hope I make it to Kroger in time tomorrow morning for my maple bars

 

 

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17 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I know what you are saying but that was hard to follow.

it’s going to be plenty windy for some power outages.

Hope I make it to Kroger in time tomorrow morning for my maple bars

 

 

I think I even confused myself:) Biggest thing we have going for us now is that no news agencies have been talking about it. 

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Looking ahead... the GFS shows a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5616800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking ahead... the GFS show a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5616800.png

Wow ground zero here in western WA on this run…hopefully it goes south. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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Wow!  The 0z GFS is much nicer with the month end cold snap.  Much better opportunity for a hard frost and chilly Halloween, due to much less east wind.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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That cold strong east wind on 0z really warms my soul 

  • Snow 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  The 0z GFS is much nicer with the month end cold snap.  Much better opportunity for a hard frost and chilly Halloween, due to much less east wind.

Looks delightfully backdoor and quite breezy to me.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

I think places near the foothills in King County could get decent east winds from this.  Places near the Sound may get some decent southerlies a bit later in the event, but the center just remains too far west for anything block buster IMO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Looks delightfully backdoor and quite breezy to me.

It's delayed from pervious runs though.  The initial cold surge is from the NW and N.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Nice looking setup centered around Nov 6 now also.  So it begins!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Which runs? This one is a lot more backdoorsy than any other runs last 24 hours. 

I'm just talking about when the surface gradients become easterly.  This run has a more sustained period of NW to N gradients which is much more favorable for cold temps in this area.  That is reflected in the temps at months end on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The 0z GFS is quite a bit colder for the Oct 29 to Nov 3 period than previous runs.  Should be pretty crisp if this verifies.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice looking setup centered around Nov 6 now also.  So it begins!

Looks like it’ll be close to 70F.

Will feel like summer.

C3D6872E-363F-4827-96F4-3FB414818F04.png

 

  • Windy 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Definitely an eastward trend with the short range models. Could end up being advisory levels most places. 

Did you notice the 00z MM5-NAM, 3km were a bit faster with forward motion not weakening the low nearly as quickly as previous runs maintaining strengths around 958-960mb moving into Central Vancouver Island? That's a big change IF it verifies. C'MON!!!!

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I feel like wanting the storm to get any closer is futile wishcasting at this point. This area is not going to be affected and we won’t notice anything out of the ordinary. The only notable weather this location ever experiences anymore is heat.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like wanting the storm to get any closer is futile wishcasting at this point. This area is not going to be affected and we won’t notice anything out of the ordinary. The only notable weather this location ever experiences anymore is heat.

Well, you live in the PCW now, not the PNW.

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like it’ll be close to 70F.

Will feel like summer.

C3D6872E-363F-4827-96F4-3FB414818F04.png

 

That warm spot is insane.  It must know where you live!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

And empty the shelves went! 

tenor.gif

I've been stopped by a herd of sheep a few times on the forest service road outside of Liberty.  That's exactly what it's like.  A solid sea of sheep which SLOWLY yields as you drive forward.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking ahead... the GFS shows a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5616800.png

Wow!  October 2003 redux.  That makes a cold snap sometime in the Nov 5 to 15 range seem pretty plausible.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The gradients being shown on ECMWF are remarkably unimpressive.  Pretty shocking with such a strong low.  Part of the issue is the pressure is going to be so low over us also.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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