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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The gradients being shown on ECMWF are remarkably unimpressive.  Pretty shocking with such a strong low.  Part of the issue is the pressure is going to be so low over us also.

Yep due to the trajectory/track of the low and weak high pressure in California.

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28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Did you notice the 00z MM5-NAM, 3km were a bit faster with forward motion not weakening the low nearly as quickly as previous runs maintaining strengths around 958-960mb moving into Central Vancouver Island? That's a big change IF it verifies. C'MON!!!!

What would they mean more winds for the central sound or just 20 to 40 gusts ?

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Stick a fork in this one guys.  It just isn't going to happen.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Stick a fork in this one guys.  It just isn't going to happen.

No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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17 minutes ago, Requiem said:

No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol

Jim is not a fan of the wind…

I would venture to guess that if that was a massive snow bomb off the coast he would be looking at the Yugoslavian model that shows the storm getting close to us and he would be all over it!!

And we are going to need his snow/cold enthusiasm here in a few Weeks!!! 

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21 minutes ago, Requiem said:

No offense, but weren't you touting a 42 low as excitingly chilly a week or two ago? I don't think anyone is expecting a major windstorm out of this-- but there is something to us enjoying some blustery fall weather coming to us courtesy of a historically powerful storm of our coast. Let us have our moment lol

You have really matured on here quickly, well said!!

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45 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

She’s a beaut Clark! 

D762C0C1-6186-4521-8D8E-CE89CC11560A.jpeg

It is a gorgeous storm.

The east winds have started here with a gust to 15 so far.  There will probably be some gusts into the 30s here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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At this point we have some wind to deal with over the next couple of days, then a big AR event later in the week, and then the prospects for some colder weather during the second week of November.  The details on the latter are still sketchy, but the ensembles really like the idea of sharply falling WPO during week two.  Very often the first sign of GOA amplification on the way.

Pretty dynamic period we are in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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In it's own way the storm looks nearly as awesome as a hurricane on the sat loop.  It's really tearing it up out there.  You can really see the juicy AR heading for CA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looking at cold ENSO years that had huge amounts of rain in October in Northern CA you have the following.

1924, 1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1973, 2010, and 2016.  The most notably wet were 1924, 1962, 2010, and 2016.

Some really great winters in that group.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

She’s a beaut Clark! 

D762C0C1-6186-4521-8D8E-CE89CC11560A.jpeg

Quite a rotation. A very well defined center of circulation, looks very much like a hurricane the last few frames. And an onslaught of rain into NorCal. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-05_56Z-20211024_map_-35-1n-10-100.gif

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Quite a rotation. A very well defined center of circulation, looks very much like a hurricane the last few frames. And an onslaught of rain into NorCal. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-05_56Z-20211024_map_-35-1n-10-100.gif

That thing is a beast.  As much as some people wanted it to get closer I consider us very lucky it isn't going to.  I just saved that loop to my desk top.  Absolutely amazing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I find it really interesting that despite the deep low pressure that rivals a cat 3 hurricane, sustained winds is no where close. We're looking at what? 45-50 knots when a cat 3 is capable of reaching 110 knots? 

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Serious question, my bottle of protein shake just exploded out of nowhere. The cap hit the ceiling hard. 

Did the pressure difference from the low cause my bottle to explode? It's been sitting out for a week so the pressure must've already been building inside, but I'm also wondering if the falling atmospheric pressure instigated it.

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Down to 987mb. Crazy pressure falls but no wind.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Didn't notice any wind when I got back home at hour ago. In fact there was some patchy fog across the eastside. I'm sure that will be scoured out rather quickly soon. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1FB898EA-EBB1-4ECA-8B27-FE038156CDF5.thumb.png.e3f85cba05513fd84d9516054eccace2.png

Looking very wet Thursday up here.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao. 

I've heard that noise too before while camping! It's a bit alarming when you're half asleep. A lot of times when I hear things at night while camping, it is raccoons messing around looking for scraps of food. 

Pressure going down still - 978mb.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao. 

I freaked myself out while camping in the back of my truck in Alaska...swear I heard breathing right by me, in my head,it was a huge grizzly...turns out it was ME moving on the air mattress.  That was at 3 in the morning, could not get back to bed with my heart racing still haha

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
IR Imagery
 
There's our mega-low, "bomb cyclone" whatever you wish to call it. It's still moving due east. As of 2 AM it was analyzed at a staggering 945mb(27.91 in) and may still be strengthening slightly. Unbelievable!
image.png
May be an image of map and sky

Amazing.

Only 3 more mb to break the record for that region of the Pacific. Makes me wonder what's in store this winter!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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7 minutes ago, Geos said:

Amazing.

Only 3 more mb to break the record for that region of the Pacific. Makes me wonder what's in store this winter!

Let's think about this. In February we had a historic ice storm in the Willamette valley, then a historic, unprecedented regional(including BC, AB including an incredibly anomalous lightning outbreak) heat wave in June with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal, and now in mid-late October within a week two of the deepest lows we've ever seen with the second low for today possibly to become the strongest on record. I see no reason why these highly anomalous and historic events won't carry into the upcoming Fall and Winter months. We shall see. C'MON!!!!

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18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's think about this. In February we had a historic ice storm in the Willamette valley, then a historic, unprecedented regional(including BC, AB including an incredibly anomalous lightning outbreak) heat wave in June with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal, and now in mid-late October within a week two of the deepest lows we've ever seen with the second low for today possibly to become the strongest on record. I see no reason why these highly anomalous and historic events won't carry into the upcoming Fall and Winter months. We shall see. C'MON!!!!

I agree! Temperature has been warming up here with an easterly wind. Was 48 earlier, now 58. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao. 

Where are you camping?

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East wind is cranking here right now.    ECMWF shows the wind peaking out here this morning... by this afternoon it will be from the SE rather than E and less windy out here.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-5094800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-5120000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Radar shows it should be raining pretty hard here... but its completely dry with the east wind evaporating all the precip before it reaches the ground.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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hoping we don’t lose power… lights flickered few times already. We’ve experienced worst without losing power but a lot of the trees still have leaves in tact that probably doesn’t help. It’s not that bad out, 30mph gusts.

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