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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

October 1880 is the most similar to this though. That was the all-time record up until yesterday for most locations in NorCal. Interestingly enough, the longest dry streak on record in Sacramento was also set in 1880 before this year.
 

Huge winter followed for the Midwest and Plains.

https://weatherology.com/trending/articles/Long-Winter-Eighteen-Eighty.html

That 1880 storm in Norcal actually occurred in late April, at the tail end of another insane strong Nina storm season in 1879-80.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-california-storm-of-april-1923-1880.html

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As for warming up as we move into November. We’ve been above average down here for the past week, the cooler lows will probably produce daily means just a little above average. 

At least the month is still running solidly below normal most places in the western lowlands.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.1390cfec0ddc9044b2842a5475fdb0e9.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That 1880 storm in Norcal actually occurred in late April, at the tail end of another insane strong Nina storm season in 1879-80.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-california-storm-of-april-1923-1880.html

Ahh yes good catch. Got my months mixed up!

The longest dry streak in 1880 (before this year) still stands though which is an interesting climate extreme in California.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Had some gusts around 40mph overnight. No rainfall since yesterday evening…some of the cells on radar over the coast look pretty impressive. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That 1880 storm in Norcal actually occurred in late April, at the tail end of another insane strong Nina storm season in 1879-80.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-california-storm-of-april-1923-1880.html

There was a super niño in 1878 as well. Possibly more prolific than both 1997/98 and 2015/16.

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

There was a super niño in 1878 as well. Possibly more prolific than both 1997/98 and 2015/16.

Interestingly, some of those winters still hold up for warmth in large swaths of the country. The super Nino in 1877-78 produced some pretty incredible extremes in the upper Midwest. It's still the warmest winter on record for the Twin Cities

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html

Then the major Ninas in 1879-80 and 1889-90 both produced some of the most extreme SE ridging on record. Basically encompassed the entire Eastern seaboard for long stretches of those DJFs.

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My parents in CA ended up with a storm total of at least 9 inches from-fri to this am. They finished at 5 inches total for yesterday.

Here in the SE corner of the PNW (or maybe that would be Kfalls or Boise?) I had 48F this morning at my normal time. A bit cool but calm and overcast curently.

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Morning GFS still coming in with a pleasant and dry Halloween.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Chilly mornings and mild afternoons coming up...

gfs_T2ma_nwus_25.png

gfs_T2ma_nwus_27.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

We had somewhere around 7" of rain yesterday. It switched over to snow around 2am. We have about 8" of heavy Sierra cement sitting on top of flood waters. Still nuking outside with a temp of 34F

So where in Tahoe are you at?  We just left from the Kingsbury area in Stateline yesterday morning.  Raining then, and expected to turn to snow by the evening

 

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Still haven’t managed anything but sprinkles so far rain just keeps getting shredded apart moving into the interior for the time being. Pretty mild low overnight still breezy but not as much as last night. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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11 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Spent the day on the back roads of Ellensburg. In picture two, I think I found an old crater from a possible meteor strike from a long time ago…. What’s y’all opinion🤔

61A6EB7A-21B2-428F-8F74-5C4900F1F991.jpeg

A1D0E602-3C61-4D55-8181-C411B14FA976.jpeg

859D9C85-C19D-4266-B2F8-D6F1B6A3C8D8.jpeg

I came across a forum thread on this exact crater on your 2nd picture from the early 2000's and doesn't seem like anyone 100% knows what created it. 

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[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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47 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So where in Tahoe are you at?  We just left from the Kingsbury area in Stateline yesterday morning.  Raining then, and expected to turn to snow by the evening

 

I am about 4 miles west of Kingsbury a few blocks from the beach at Regan Beach. 

There's probably 18-24" of snow where you were staying at right now and still dumping. 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Chilly mornings and mild afternoons coming up...

gfs_T2ma_nwus_25.png

gfs_T2ma_nwus_27.png

FWIW... the 12Z Canadian and 12Z ICON both keep that cut-off low much farther north after the AR event which opens the door to some precip over the weekend and larger system rolling in by Monday on the ICON.   00Z ECMWF also leaned that way with keeping that cut-off low farther north.  I am not sold on there being clear skies with mild days and chilly nights yet.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Similar here. Pretty unimpressive weekend. About 0.25" of rain in the bucket and no wind gusts over 30 mph. HWW in effect until tomorrow morning so maybe the wind will actually pick up at some point.

Looks like it was 0.31 for the past 2 days then again can't complain last year for the whole month of October we only got 0.16 of precipitation so far this year for this month is 2.05.

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

At least the month is still running solidly below normal most places in the western lowlands.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.1390cfec0ddc9044b2842a5475fdb0e9.png

I'm right on the diagonal in Eastern WA. It's been very seasonable temperature wise this month for the most part.

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I am about 4 miles west of Kingsbury a few blocks from the beach at Regan Beach. 

There's probably 18-24" of snow where you were staying at right now and still dumping. 

Wow, that's amazing.  Would love to experience a major snow like that someday.  I see the webcama even at lake level are getting a lot of snow.  That seems like much more snow than they were forecasting yesterday, at least at that altitude.

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Wow. The GEM and ICON are definitely way different than the GFS. They also send that AR later this week way further north. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. The GEM and ICON are definitely way different than the GFS. They also send that AR later this week way further north. 

Up here there’s a big difference in how wet the month finishes on the gfs (wetter) versus euro (drier). Looks like on the gfs we’re ground zero for the AR. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. The GEM and ICON are definitely way different than the GFS. They also send that AR later this week way further north. 

12Z ECMWF keeps the AR farther north too... but then does follow the GFS with the cut-off low over the weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another nice soaker for CA on the GFS. 

gfs_apcpn24_wus_44.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Winds are really gusty today and actually most of last night. Thinking gusts to around 35 mph.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z Euro just a bit wetter than 00z. 

image.thumb.png.dde4fb0c8b101d7cffc104b27a28aa6d.png

 

Gives me hope the gfs will be right.

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Big fan of the Euro. 😃

How dare you wish against us getting more rain lol

 (I know it looks good for Colorado)

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Me too!  

I’d really like to see a dry Halloween weekend…trying to get another camping trip out to the island with some friends this weekend. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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GEM is the best. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Definitely seeing some wind here today, looks like the peak at my hows was at 12:40am, but there have been several gusts right up there with it.  Its been kinda funny watching our resident hummingbird riding out the storm on a hanging decoration on our front porch.  It is getting just enough wind to sway and spin a little bit, but that little hummingbird is riding it like a champ.

 

Also, came across this on FB this morning....

IMG_2051.JPG

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Noticed this driving down to sumner this morning…was driving so I didn’t get a picture but it was a pretty unique lenticular show this morning. 

7666D280-48FF-440B-9595-63483A0DA1BE.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Been really breezy this morning…probably the last decent leaf photos of the year today lots of them have been coming down. 

5D43B5F1-4148-40CD-99C8-3541A840952D.jpeg

909A216B-F780-4F0A-B715-98C337B8DED0.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Big fan of the Euro. 😃

FWIW... the EPS mean does not support the ECMWF in the 7-10 day period (top) but the control run does (bottom).   Both would favor dry offshore flow here... the control run being stronger with the offshore flow.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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