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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the EPS mean does not support the ECMWF in the 7-10 day period (top) but the control run does (bottom).   Both would favor dry offshore flow here... the control run being stronger with the offshore flow.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5940800.png

Good thing California just got a whole bunch of rain/snow otherwise this upcoming pattern would have been an ugly fire situation once again.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

We’ve had 6 consecutive warmer than average winters. Safe bet to assume this will be #7.

I’ll cope somehow. 🤷

The good news is things will likely reverse in a few years as these warm winters tend to come in streaks bunchs so if history is any indacation this streak should be about to break sometime in the next few years perhaps the late 2020s 2030s we see a 1960s late 1970s  like progression start to take shape unless something really unusal is really going on.

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Looks like GFS wants to put Thursday's AR into the south Sound and Lewis County while the Euro positions it in the north Sound and gives the Willamette Valley close to 70 degree temps before going crazy with blocking and shutting off the jet. Looks like I'll be too far south to get anything from it but the Portland metro might get clipped if the south solution verifies.

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Rain hasn’t been too impressive yet as I expected…still pretty breezy rain will probably pick up later. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Been really breezy this morning…probably the last decent leaf photos of the year today lots of them have been coming down. 

5D43B5F1-4148-40CD-99C8-3541A840952D.jpeg

909A216B-F780-4F0A-B715-98C337B8DED0.jpeg

Quite a bit of debris at home as well. Digital clocks were all flashing as well so power was out at some point while I was away

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Wave of rain moved in about 15 minutes ago. Winds have been strong enough to knock out the power to more customers across the eastside. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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18z GFS looks more like a strong niño with that screaming STJ slamming CA with storm after storm.

Don’t often see a pattern like this during La Niña. Seems to be some -QBO element w/ the narrow EPAC HC.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS looks more like a strong niño with that screaming STJ slamming CA with storm after storm.

Don’t often see a pattern like this during La Niña. Seems to be some -QBO element w/ the narrow EPAC HC.

18z? Doesn't seem like we are looking at the same model... 12z was wetter, was that what you meant? 18z looks a lot more climo...

gfs_apcpn_wus_48.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS looks more like a strong niño with that screaming STJ slamming CA with storm after storm.

Don’t often see a pattern like this during La Niña. Seems to be some -QBO element w/ the narrow EPAC HC.

Huh?? There are literally no “storm after storm” heading into CA over the next 10 days on the 18z. NorCal is getting slightly swiped.

0A120451-E4B8-446F-9010-840568FB5EC4.png

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z? Doesn't seem like we are looking at the same model... 12z was wetter, was that what you meant? 18z looks a lot more climo...

gfs_apcpn_wus_48.png

That’s not climo at all.

Wetter than average across much of the SW US/4-corners region, dry in the north, potent STJ evident in the 500mb pattern.

1C73B9BF-1F65-4CFF-A570-D6611E8AEF6A.png

34973016-18CB-43D8-87E2-DD4D014030C8.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You’re not looking w/ respect to climo.

Wetter than average across much of the SW US/4-corners region, dry in the north, potent STJ evident in the 500mb pattern.

1C73B9BF-1F65-4CFF-A570-D6611E8AEF6A.png

34973016-18CB-43D8-87E2-DD4D014030C8.png

 

That is still drier than normal in CA as well... the averages are much lower down there at this time of year.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Come on Phil. Admit you are misspoke. You said storm after storm... About a model run that shows no storms hitting California. LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

That is still drier than normal in CA as well... the averages are much lower down there at this time of year.    

Exactly and I thought he was talking about Cali? Still looks drier than normal. Didn’t see any “storm after storm” 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Exactly and I thought he was talking about Cali? Still looks drier than normal. Didn’t see any “storm after storm” 

He literally said CA. I get the point though... But still... I think we were all initially confused. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hawks game could be wet and breezy at times. Not anything like SF yesterday but look to have some intermittent heavy showers. 

B62A8663-DAD6-434F-B6FC-07D64035CF15.gif

Seems like the heavier showers get ripped apart as they move over the Sound and into Seattle... might be the rain shadow trying to develop but its not able to completely block the rain.    The rain has not looked very heavy in Seattle even when the stronger cells make it overhead.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Please take football banter to appropriate thread. Thank you. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Please take football banter to appropriate thread. Thank you. 

Cloud did tie in the weather!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like the heavier showers get ripped apart as they move over the Sound and into Seattle... might be the rain shadow trying to develop but its not able to completely block the rain.    The rain has not looked very heavy in Seattle even when the stronger cells make it overhead.

Yeah. Kinda interesting to see as we head into the night time hours, these heavy showers could pop up overhead then. HRRR does show some heavy cells right over Seattle next several hours during the game.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Please take football banter to appropriate thread. Thank you. 

That was weather related. I still would’ve posted that, I just happened to mentioned the Hawks game on top of weather. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Yeah. Kinda interesting to see as we head into the night time hours, these heavy showers could pop up overhead then. HRRR does show some heavy cells right over Seattle next several hours during the game.

I think main precip sheld is moving through now... the ECMWF appears to expand the rain shadow through the evening.    We will see.   The wind is a big factor in the game as well.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1635163200-1635195600-1635235200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Come on Phil. Admit you are misspoke. You said storm after storm... About a model run that shows no storms hitting California. LOL

Jesus H Christ. I didn’t say anything about CA rainfall totals. You made that leap on your own.

I referenced the active STJ.

344B2DC4-38EF-47A9-8970-4C2E30A46418.gif

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Jesus H Christ. I didn’t say anything about CA rainfall totals. You made that leap on your own.

I referenced the active STJ.

344B2DC4-38EF-47A9-8970-4C2E30A46418.gif

You said “slamming with storm after storm” Phil. 

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You would think that storm after storm would result in higher than average.

Not if it stops raining mid-November. 😱

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