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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Can’t wait to see all these storms slam CA 

  • Rain 2
  • Windy 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It’s not any further north, it’s just weaker.

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area and South Sound for sure.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5508800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5505200.png

  • Rain 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area and South Sound for sure.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5508800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5505200.png

I’m in the blue! 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area and South Sound for sure.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5508800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5505200.png

A lot more rain in the San Juan's.

Getting a few moderate showers this evening. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0.17” so far today in Tacoma….2.68” so far this month. Sad the AR is weakened on the gfs but we’re doing ok on rainfall recently so oh well. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.17” so far today in Tacoma….2.68” so far this month. Sad the AR is weakened on the gfs but we’re doing ok on rainfall recently so oh well. 

SEA should be nearing 3” if not go over for next few days. As of 10/24, 2.54”. Amazingly, it still looks like could end up below normal (3.91”) for the month. 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Should almost be as good as watching the Huskies disembowel the Ducks in a couple weeks.

So what you are saying is neither will happen. 

  • Sad 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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One thing I will say is I hate the pattern we are in right now.  Anytime we have mild temps with a cold air mass over us I can't stand it.  On the other hand wet weather in October is often a good sign going forward, and we had plenty of this October 2016.

On another note...Yesterday's storm ended up being quite impressive in some ways.  At Cape Disappointment for example their first gust of 60+ happened at 2pm yesterday and the last such gust was at 9am today.  An incredibly long period of strong winds at places like that.  Their peak gust was an impressive 74MPH.  Even SEA ended up pretty windy for a long period of time.

It does appear a brief chilly period is pretty possible mainly in the Oct 29 thru Nov 2 period.  The 12z ECMWF had some places going well below freezing on a number of mornings.  I think this area will probably get screwed by east winds though.  Probably still one cold night in the foothills area before the east wind sets in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Sacramento official 24 hours totals yesterday was 5.44”.  Broke the record from 1880. Unreal. SEA’s wettest day all time was 5.02”

Wow!  We continue to evidence the atmosphere is still in an extremely abnormal state.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The CPC winter outlook has actually gotten better.  They have included the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the below normal area which means things are more likely to get continental.  They have WA in the third shade of blue for J,F,M now.

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  • Snow 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The CPC winter outlook has actually gotten better.  They have included the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the below normal area which means things are more likely to get continental.  They have WA in the third shade of blue for J,F,M now.

I'd still like to see us score something meaningful in Dec./Jan. 

The late season stuff have been great but I would love to see something in the heart of winter.

Not to take anything away from this outlook, just my personal preference. 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I'd still like to see us score something meaningful in Dec./Jan. 

The late season stuff have been great but I would love to see something in the heart of winter.

Not to take anything away from this outlook, just my personal preference. 

The D,J,F map is good too, but not quite as nice as the J,F,M.

Most models continue to like January.  I think we will get a nice event somewhere in the mid Nov - Dec period as well.

All I know is I want some cold weather.  The stuff in the first half of October made me want to see more.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Thurs/Friday is quite wet for the Puget Sound and the Seattle area on the Euro. Should push the monthly totals to above normal. Then we go onto a period of dry stretch to start out Nov. Can't complain. 

Some nice chilly temps as well. in the upper 30s for lows first week of Nov. 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thurs/Friday is quite wet for the Puget Sound and the Seattle area on the Euro. Should push the monthly totals to above normal. Then we go onto a period of dry stretch to start out Nov. Can't complain. 

Some nice chilly temps as well. in the upper 30s

It's not like we really need the rain here anyway.  Let places south have it.

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  • Rain 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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One thing I really like about the CPC outlook is there is no hint of a raging +EPO being shown on the anomaly maps.  I think that is the biggest thing that could screw it up this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The Euro has been remarkably consistent showing 3-4" of rain up here by Friday. Meanwhile the GFS has been predicting only about an 1" for the rest of the week (in a strong rainshadow) with wild swings in where it thinks the atmospheric river will hit. I guess we'll know by Friday which one is right.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I really like about the CPC outlook is there is no hint of a raging +EPO being shown on the anomaly maps.  I think that is the biggest thing that could screw it up this winter.

I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest.

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5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest.

Let’s go torchy alaska 🙃

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12 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I remember 2005-06. We spent the first three weeks of December below freezing with snowcover. After that period of time, we abruptly warmed up, the snow melted, and it rained all January long. It was a +EPO rainfest.

Might not be a horrible analog.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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EC ensemble

1723096996_ECensemble500mb.gif

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

The Euro has been remarkably consistent showing 3-4" of rain up here by Friday. Meanwhile the GFS has been predicting only about an 1" for the rest of the week (in a strong rainshadow) with wild swings in where it thinks the atmospheric river will hit. I guess we'll know by Friday which one is right.

FWIW the Euro just buttfücked the GFS w/ the nor’easter here. The GFS was nowhere close even a few days out.

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble

1723096996_ECensemble500mb.gif

If only this STJ regime were happening in Jan/Feb. Would be a ton of snow here. But alas. :rolleyes:

I’m sure come winter we’ll be back to Baffin vortex and northern stream dominance.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

If only this STJ regime were happening in Jan/Feb. Would be a ton of snow here. But alas. :rolleyes:

I’m sure come winter we’ll be back to Baffin vortex and northern stream dominance.

Feels persistent like our heat and fire weather of late.

Time for me to turn in. Having seizures. Looking forward to the fallback so the GFS kicks off at 2AM instead of 3AM.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feels persistent like our heat and fire weather of late.

Time for me to turn in. Having seizures. Looking forward to the fallback so the GFS kicks off at 2AM instead of 3AM.

I’m sorry man. Sending u my best vibes.

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@Phil What say you on the SPV this winter? Lots of NWPac ridging on the extended ensemble suites, which as I understand only reduces pressure on the vortex. Makes sense that ensembles have it strengthening too. You think come later in December it could weaken w/ some Waffle-zombie?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

@Phil What say you on the SPV this winter? Lots of NWPac ridging on the extended ensemble suites, which as I understand only reduces pressure on the vortex. Makes sense that ensembles have it strengthening too. You think come later in December it could weaken w/ some Waffle-zombie?

If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow.

There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one.

We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February.

In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily.

Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow.

There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one.

We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February.

In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily.

Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO.

So the deck is a little stacked against us now?   This feels like a progression that ends up cold by late November or December to me.

I read that a Nino developing once we get into late spring is pretty likely... do you agree?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I will say is I hate the pattern we are in right now.  Anytime we have mild temps with a cold air mass over us I can't stand it.  On the other hand wet weather in October is often a good sign going forward, and we had plenty of this October 2016.

On another note...Yesterday's storm ended up being quite impressive in some ways.  At Cape Disappointment for example their first gust of 60+ happened at 2pm yesterday and the last such gust was at 9am today.  An incredibly long period of strong winds at places like that.  Their peak gust was an impressive 74MPH.  Even SEA ended up pretty windy for a long period of time.

It does appear a brief chilly period is pretty possible mainly in the Oct 29 thru Nov 2 period.  The 12z ECMWF had some places going well below freezing on a number of mornings.  I think this area will probably get screwed by east winds though.  Probably still one cold night in the foothills area before the east wind sets in.

Your cold October is slipping away. 

  • Sad 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2020-21 was a total crap winter outside of 3-4 days. About as mild a winter as they come outside a few days in February. 
 

December/January have been abysmal since December 2017. I have a really hard time believing we will have another complete torch for December/January.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Might not be a horrible analog.

Dang it. I wish you had brought that one up BEFORE I made my winter forecast. lol. 

Whenever I get excited about an upcoming winter it is because I forgotten about how many ways our winters can bomb. 

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It looks like Portland might slip into the southern periphery of the weak atmospheric river later this week. That's the trend at least. You won't here me complaining if that happens. I would lose my bet with @RentonHillTC, but it would be worth it.

Portland has performed really well compared to Salem/Eugene the past week. We've done decent up here too. PDX will end October above average, Salem and Eugene may be a little below. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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