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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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53 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound.
But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size.
That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. :) that sounds perfect!

The storm is going to be extraordinary, but the wind field is going to be pretty limited and mostly offshore.  The best bet for the Puget Sound Lowlands will be some fairly strong easterlies in the foothills.  To the average Joe the media hoopla about this is going to end up being much ado about nothing.  Such an amazing storm, but most people won't see much from it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS goes for a major pattern change in week 2.  Much blockier and an opportunity for cold nights.  Great pattern to show off the remaining fall colors.  The cottonwoods should be great by then.  They are turning much better and earlier than normal here.

Earlier?   Looking at pics from October in past years... our cottonwoods are really slow to turn this year.  In some years they have been almost bare by this point.   Cottonwoods are sort of a boring fall color tree anyways compared to other trees around here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Meanwhile the GFS goes for a pretty chilly day tomorrow with some places struggling to top 50.  Currently a cool 46 here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS shows major blocking and a cold trough digging down the BC Coast late in the run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

I would love to run out to the coast just to see the wave action! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

This is probably the deepest low I've ever seen in the position that is progged, but it's quite apparent it's going to have limited impact inland.  I hate seeing the media hype this kind of thing when the vast majority of the population with see nothing more than a typical fall storm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more.

This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

These deep central pressure storms also typically develop around the GoA and impact that region instead. This one just happens to be way further south. It's quite fascinating and one of these may end up hitting the region. 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z NAM had some pretty strong winds Sunday morning, especially for the coast and EPSL. Those are really the main two places that have the highest shot of strong winds, imo. The low is filling too quickly so that by the time it gets to a spot favorable for winds up the Sound the gradient has laxed and it'll probably just be some breezy winds.

Ultimately I'm expecting a similar blow as yesterday here in MV, perhaps a bit stronger if things align right. Notable but nothing crazy.

index (1).png

I think a pretty good blow is possible here if the low is a tad further south than expected when the storm bottoms out.  If the low is straight west of us the Olympics really interfere with the east wind potential.  I just don't see a south wind event with this one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

I don’t understand the doubt from many in here given the trends. Sure, the media hype is ridiculous but there is serious potential. 

I've seen these very strong lows in this situation before and they almost invariably bottom out too far off shore.  This low is so exceptional that anything is possible I guess.  As I mentioned before we had two like this in January 1880 that both tracked across southern WA.  Normally a low of this strength has almost zero chance of tracking inland further south than Northern Vancouver Island.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. 

You heard it guys, no soccer! :(

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Lol watch this storm be the anti typhoon bust of 2016 and totally catch us off guard. Not counting on it. Looks like we had a low of 48 this morning. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol watch this storm be the anti typhoon bust of 2016 and totally catch us off guard. Not counting on it. Looks like we had a low of 48 this morning. 

Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. 

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Looks like the last couple GFS have things really drying out and turning mild by the end of the month. Just about 5-6 more days of rain and then severe clear. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. 

Here the 12Z NAM... slight shift east from 00Z run.

nam-nest-nw-mslp-1634990400-1634990400-1635202800-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. 

There has been a shift southward that puts it at a higher risk of getting us but the odds are still it doesn’t amount to much. Just seems like either way it’ll be weakening too though…Sometimes forecasts bust so we will see. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There has been a shift southward that puts it at a higher risk of getting us but the odds are still it doesn’t amount to much. Just seems like either way it’ll be weakening too though…Sometimes forecasts bust so we will see. 

Agree. It’s a weird storm with a weird track that is not typical of big winds around here.  

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