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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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Here is the full ECMWF weeklies run that Phil mentioned earlier.... might get the desired warm November to set us up for later.  

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1635120000-1635120000-1639094400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF definitely shows systems diving south into Oregon and CA next week and bypassing WA for the most part.    This is rainfall totals from Sunday to Friday...

ecmwf-deterministic-west-precip_120hr_inch-6113600.png

They need it more than us still. Have been doing pretty good on rainfall here in western WA. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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3 minutes ago, mtep said:

Today honestly feels more gusty here than it did Sunday or yesterday overall

Opposite down here…Sunday and Monday were borderline windy at times. Today’s decently breezy but not too bad. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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5 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It looks like Portland might slip into the southern periphery of the weak atmospheric river later this week. That's the trend at least. You won't here me complaining if that happens. I would lose my bet with @RentonHillTC, but it would be worth it.

18z NAM and ICON shifting back north again. 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

The Thunderstorms there will be much stronger and frequent over there and of course the winters much colder than the PAC NW. 

image.thumb.png.26ccd58e442f974f04e6590e7643655a.png

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Wow, big change. I didn't realize Sioux Falls was as large at it is (over 175,000 people). Guess it wouldn't be as hard to find a decent job there as some places in the "flyover" states.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, big change. I didn't realize Sioux Falls was as large at it is (over 175,000 people). Guess it wouldn't be as hard to find a decent job there as some places in the "flyover" states.

175,000 is pretty shocking actually.  I had no idea.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Rainstorm420 said:

The Thunderstorms there will be much stronger and frequent over there and of course the winters much colder than the PAC NW. 

image.thumb.png.26ccd58e442f974f04e6590e7643655a.png

 

Pretty impressive numbers.  Amazing how many people get fed up with this climate and leave on this forum.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, big change. I didn't realize Sioux Falls was as large at it is (over 175,000 people). Guess it wouldn't be as hard to find a decent job there as some places in the "flyover" states.

Yeah when my wife initially suggested Sioux Falls I thought there would be no way to have enough jobs over there for future job security. But I was pleasantly surprised at how healthy the job market is there when I looked at it and our cousin over there says it's continuing to rapidly grow, strengthening the local economy for the next few years at least. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pedestrian record highs, though...

Yeah....those 94 degree highs in October are a dime a dozen.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

The weird thing is when I lived in Cle Elum for a couple of years I had all the snow I could want and yet was bummed when I heard about a big snowstorm here.  It is special here when it happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The weird thing is when I lived in Cle Elum for a couple of years I had all the snow I could want and yet was bummed when I heard about a big snowstorm here.  It is special here when it happens.

100%. 

In places where it's more normal to get significant snowfall, or have snow on the ground for months on end, I would have to imagine it gets to a point of "just being another snowstorm". Where as here even a 2-4 inch storm creates a certain buzz and atmosphere (not only on the forum) that is pretty contagious and fun to experience. 

If we do end up going with this move, which I'd put at about 90% right now, I will definitely miss the hubub of a good 'ol PNW snowstorm. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Wow!   That is basically Minnesota.   But the SW corner of Minnesota does not have as consistent snow cover as the northern and eastern parts of the state.    Also not many trees down there...its basically wide open plains outside of the cities.   

I think you will love the climate overall since you seem to really like seasonal extremes.    Guaranteed cold and snow and guaranteed warm/hot summers with lots of thunderstorms.       

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty impressive numbers.  Amazing how many people get fed up with this climate and leave on this forum.

Lol I don't think most of the ones that leave do because they're fed up with the climate.

Actually, considering how mobile people are these days, I think it's kind of remarkable how many long term PNW residents there are here.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I went to Sioux Falls, SD last year, very very very nice city. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I went to Sioux Falls, SD last year, very very very nice city. 

He is going to experience some wicked blizzards and thunderstorms!  

Maybe start cheering for the Vikings and Twins as well. 😀

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

100%. 

In places where it's more normal to get significant snowfall, or have snow on the ground for months on end, I would have to imagine it gets to a point of "just being another snowstorm". Where as here even a 2-4 inch storm creates a certain buzz and atmosphere (not only on the forum) that is pretty contagious and fun to experience. 

If we do end up going with this move, which I'd put at about 90% right now, I will definitely miss the hubub of a good 'ol PNW snowstorm. 

I have the perfect going away gift…A massive Dakota’s arctic blast and snow drifts as high as a motorhome, right before you leave!! 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Best of luck on selling and making that move! 

That does sound cold, 21 is my January avg low. I haven't checked real estate lately in SD but hopefully not as expensive as the northwest. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow!   That is basically Minnesota.   But the SW corner of Minnesota does not have as consistent snow cover as the northern and eastern parts of the state.    Also not many trees down there...its basically wide open plains outside of the cities.   

I think you will love the climate overall since you seem to really like seasonal extremes.    Guaranteed cold and snow and guaranteed warm/hot summers with lots of thunderstorms.       

I would definitely miss the trees, although there is a certain beauty to the wide open plains (and the unobstructed sunsets/sunrises).

Rapid City has a bit of both worlds with the Black Hills and the plains/badlands starting nearby. I don't think the job market is as strong, though.

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well looks like there is a good chance we will be moving to Sioux Falls, SD at some point over the next couple months. We have a realtor coming tomorrow to look at our house and see what we could sell it for. A similar house down the street sold for over half a million after about 4 days of being on the market so assuming ours would go for about the same and just as quick, which is insane for a pretty small house (~1200 sq ft). We are pretty set on the idea of running with our much-larger-than-expected profit on this house and going to an area that has a much cheaper COL. Plus, my wife has family that is either already over there or moving over there soon.

We were wanting to move somewhere with more snow/cold but SD seems to be firmly on the extreme end, with their average low in January being 6 degrees. At least I won't have to beg and plead to the weather gods to bless me with 2 inches of snow anymore. So that'll be nice. 

Congrats bro! I’m jealous though. 🤬

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I would definitely miss the trees, although there is a certain beauty to the wide open plains (and the unobstructed sunsets/sunrises).

Rapid City has a bit of both worlds with the Black Hills and the plains/badlands starting nearby. I don't think the job market is as strong, though.

Another huge difference between Sioux Falls and the Puget Sound region is the amount of sunshine in Sioux Falls.     Its quite sunny there in all seasons.     

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He is going to experience some wicked blizzards and thunderstorms!  

Maybe start cheering for the Vikings and Twins as well. 😀

 

My son was so bummed after the game last night (reoccurring theme lately) but I told him that when we move we will have a new home team to root for so we'll have twice the chance of a good season.

If the Hawks suck, we got the Vikings. If the Vikings suck, we got the Hawks. If they both suck... well, I guess we'll be SOL.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

My son was so bummed after the game last night (reoccurring theme lately) but I told him that when we move we will have a new home team to root for so we'll have twice the chance of a good season.

If the Hawks suck, we got the Vikings. If the Vikings suck, we got the Hawks. If they both suck... well, I guess we'll be SOL.

Minnesotans say the Vikings are the most cursed team in the NFL... and its hard to argue with that.  😁

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11 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Best of luck on selling and making that move! 

That does sound cold, 21 is my January avg low. I haven't checked real estate lately in SD but hopefully not as expensive as the northwest. 

Thanks man! Average home price in Sioux Falls is $269k. Most nicer houses I've seen are between $300-$350k for a 2,000 sq ft house. Less money than we got this 1,200 sq ft house for in Maple Valley. 😆

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Lol I don't think most of the ones that leave do because they're fed up with the climate.

Actually, considering how mobile people are these days, I think it's kind of remarkable how many long term PNW residents there are here.

I think the people from this forum that move do so because of weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18z gets cold at the end.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another huge difference between Sioux Falls and the Puget Sound region is the amount of sunshine in Sioux Falls.     Its quite sunny there in all seasons.     

I read that the other day and honestly that is really something I'm looking forward to. I get so tired of the constant gray and rainy days in the PNW. It can be really draining by the time you get deeper into winter. Thank God Jesse isn't here or I'd surely get a tongue-lashing for that statement.

Like you said... From what I've read of the climate out there, it sounds right up my alley. Less rain/more sun, more snow/cold, warm/hot in the summer, and more legit thunderstorms. I mean... What's not to love with the sound of that?

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I read that the other day and honestly that is really something I'm looking forward to. I get so tired of the constant gray and rainy days in the PNW. It can be really draining by the time you get deeper into winter. Thank God Jesse isn't here or I'd surely get a tongue-lashing for that statement.

Like you said... From what I've read of the climate out there, it sounds right up my alley. Less rain/more sun, more snow/cold, warm/hot in the summer, and more legit thunderstorms. I mean... What's not to love with the sound of that?

Totally agree.    The constant gray and rain is tough... but some people love it and cheer for it all summer too.   I will never feel that way.   

It will be nice to know you have always have a great chance of serious cold and snow and it does not take every domino to line up perfectly.    

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21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Thanks man! Average home price in Sioux Falls is $269k. Most nicer houses I've seen are between $300-$350k for a 2,000 sq ft house. Less money than we got this 1,200 sq ft house for in Maple Valley. 😆

Even small towns went more expensive. This was a 70k house in 2012, if we weren't so quick to make a sale this would have sold 210-220k. It's only a 1400 sq. ft. house. 

Word is Bend is crazy, and they've always been a pricey city.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree.    The constant gray and rain is tough... but some people love it and cheer for it all summer too.   I will never feel that way.   

It will be nice to know you have always have a great chance of serious cold and snow and it does not take every domino to line up perfectly.    

I can definitely see moving to somewhere sunnier when I retire. I get tired of the endless gray. Depends where my kids end up. Both are out of state at the moment, both want to eventually get back to the PNW. But, life can get in the way of those kinds of plans so we shall see. 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

100%. 

In places where it's more normal to get significant snowfall, or have snow on the ground for months on end, I would have to imagine it gets to a point of "just being another snowstorm". Where as here even a 2-4 inch storm creates a certain buzz and atmosphere (not only on the forum) that is pretty contagious and fun to experience. 

If we do end up going with this move, which I'd put at about 90% right now, I will definitely miss the hubub of a good 'ol PNW snowstorm. 

You get tired of looking at it.

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I very rarely get tired of the overcast…idk maybe it’s because I’ve never lived anywhere else. Couple of winters ago we had almost 0 sunshine from mid December all the way to mid February and that was honestly really depressing. Was glad when we got a nice sunny stretch in mid February 2020. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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0.11” so far today…57/48. Looking forward to some nice weather for Halloween weekend after we round out 10 days in a row with measurable rainfall. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I read that the other day and honestly that is really something I'm looking forward to. I get so tired of the constant gray and rainy days in the PNW. It can be really draining by the time you get deeper into winter. Thank God Jesse isn't here or I'd surely get a tongue-lashing for that statement.

Like you said... From what I've read of the climate out there, it sounds right up my alley. Less rain/more sun, more snow/cold, warm/hot in the summer, and more legit thunderstorms. I mean... What's not to love with the sound of that?

I could see myself moving somewhere that just gets more extremes overall with more defined seasons. Maybe eastern WA or OR. They get more consistent snowfalls and more sunshine overall. Maybe the overcast will wear on me more when I get older I don’t think it does because I’m just so used to it. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I very rarely get tired of the overcast…idk maybe it’s because I’ve never lived anywhere else. Couple of winters ago we had almost 0 sunshine from mid December all the way to mid February and that was honestly really depressing. Was glad when we got a nice sunny stretch in mid February 2020. 

I’ve lived here all my life and it doesn’t really bother me all that much. But I do like the sun and wouldn’t mind spending my retirement years in a place where the sun to gray ratio leans a little more toward sun than it does here. 

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’ve lived here all my life and it doesn’t really bother me all that much. But I do like the sun and wouldn’t mind spending my retirement years in a place where the sun to gray ratio leans a little more toward sun than it does here. 

I definitely understand that, my cousin goes down to Central America for 3 months out of the year…December through February usually. I could definitely see myself moving over to central Oregon someday. Not like it’s the sunniest place on earth but it’s definitely less gloomy. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I definitely understand that, my cousin goes down to Central America for 3 months out of the year…December through February usually. I could definitely see myself moving over to central Oregon someday. Not like it’s the sunniest place on earth but it’s definitely less gloomy. 

Central Oregon is probably the most likely destination for us if we do actually move. Have to think about tax impacts, access to medical care and other stuff that becomes more important as you get older. But in terms of climate and mix of urban and natural amenities, the Bend area is pretty appealing. 

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