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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

I’m totally fine if we torch for the next three weeks because nothing much in the way of winter weather happens down this way historically until late November anyway.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah the weathers looking good always love to get some camping in during off-season times. I’ve always been nervous about using those propane heaters in tents too…probably a good thing you kept opening the tent. I’ve never used one I just have a 0 degree sleeping bag and on nights when it got down to the upper 20s it’s been fine for me. 

The general rule is add 10-15 degrees to the ratings to know where you'll actually stay comfortable.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

Probably not a head fake this time. Or at least less of one compared to last time, in my opinion.

Either way, given AAM removal/some other stuff, I think it’s a good bet we see the Pacific shut down in November with more GOA high/cold air loading.

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’m totally fine if we torch for the next three weeks because nothing much in the way of winter weather happens down this way historically until late November anyway.

It's like that here usually. The late November bomb low in 2019 was both my first snow and high wind event.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The general rule is add 10-15 degrees to the ratings to know where you'll actually stay comfortable.

Yeah I doubt I would be too warm if it was 0 degrees outside but I’m sure it’d be fine if it was 15-20 degrees. I’m hoping we get some snow this winter want to head out to the island and do some snow camping and see how well my set up does. 

  • Snow 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. 

Medford was saying yesterday that this next one would be the wetter of the two. 

We shall see. 

  • Rain 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We were discussing media sensationalism for that first storm on Thursday. Luckily, we got people like Scott out there doing their best to combat that clickbaity hype.

 

Scott and Walter kelly are my favorite Mets here in the Seattle area. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like the euro upped the rain totals a bit atleast at my location. Rain has passed here radar doesn’t look too impressive behind this band. Up to 0.11” back at home. 

  • Rain 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Good Lord!  The ECMWF is 942mb on this run.  That is 27.82 inches for those keeping score.

  • Storm 1
  • scream 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Probably not a head fake this time. Or at least less of one compared to last time, in my opinion.

Either way, given AAM removal/some other stuff, I think it’s a good bet we see the Pacific shut down in November with more GOA high/cold air loading.

Yup.  People need to remember that going into a ridgy pattern now would probably be a good sign.  The screaming zonal option becomes less likely going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Max wind gusts for the entire 12Z ECMWF run...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5854400.png

Pedestrian at best.  This is kind of the perfect storm (pardon the pun) to make the media look really bad.  The storm is incredibly powerful and yet the effect in the population centers will be nothing more than a typical fall storm.

I'm sure my area, and probably yours, will have a decent blow, but nothing to write home about.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That's a lot of wind off the coast.

Those wind speeds off the coast only last a few hours late on Sunday evening.

  • Sad 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That's a lot of wind off the coast.

The models have been advertising 80 to 90 MPH gusts well out there.  Even that is less than you might expect from such a major deep storm.

  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yikes.  There's a story in the news about a ship off the WA Coast losing shipping containers from the rough seas.  With the back up of freighters out there this could be a serious issue with this storm.  More supply chain problems.

  • Storm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pedestrian at best.  This is kind of the perfect storm (pardon the pun) to make the media look really bad.  The storm is incredibly powerful and yet the effect in the population centers will be nothing more than a typical fall storm.

I'm sure my area, and probably yours, will have a decent blow, but nothing to write home about.

Yeah... this type of storm is really bad for the NWS because the media is guaranteed to over-hype it and ignore the fact that the actual effects locally will be very minor.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kind of interesting that even with the pattern shift coming the analogs are still much the same.  1970 and 1955 still showing up a lot, and a little bit of 2007.  Kind of surprising that 1968 has been making a strong showing for days now.

EDIT:  Just noticed that 2008 is an analog to the 12z run.  That one turned out pretty good!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting that even with the pattern shift coming the analogs are still much the same.  1970 and 1955 still showing up a lot, and a little bit of 2007.  Kind of surprising that 1968 has been making a strong showing for days now.

Those are like 4 of the snowiest winters on record here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Probably only for an hour before going away. As you’ve been saying, total non event, probably for the coast as well. Everyone should stop talking about it or even sharing model runs.

I didn't tell anyone to stop talking about it... or even hinted at that.    I have been posting surface pressure maps too.   It is a really interesting storm.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Beautiful fall weather and fall colors on display today.  I’m really lucking out on the weather with this trip!

EA3ACFC4-5D84-455D-861E-2F8B44E500A6.jpeg

That is a sweet view! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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