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2015-2016 el Niño Watch/Discussion


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.. Colder circulation up from the Southern hemisphere, mid-later winter. ?  @

 

You must be looking at that area west of Chile. 

 

Some very warm anomalies below the surface waters. If that rose up to the surface we would have a repeat of 97-98 likely...

 

The most interesting part; I think, will be the interaction between the El Niño and the "blob" in the northeast Pacific. I just hope it does not force the jet stream and storm track north of California.

 

 

 

Newest CPC discussion on ENSO.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like the "blob" core was toned down slightly, especially on its northern side this past three days. Probably due to that trough.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I don't know has anyone in the media really covered what the El Niño combined with the NE Pacific Blob will due to our continental US winter weather?...

The warm anomaly over the NE Pacific isn't going to disappear anytime soon. Sure it may weaken by winter, but I'm sure it will still have a significant influence. 

I think will have two jet stream fighting for dominance this winter. A stronger southern branch than previous winters and a strong northern stream, but not as strong as the last two winters.

 

post-7-0-76241300-1441136766_thumb.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's pretty evident it there will be a clash of the northern and southern jet stream.  I'd imagine there will be a train of systems traversing the nation and hopefully they will become phased unlike the previous 2 winters (albeit there were a couple Blizzards that hit the Midwest/Lakes region.

 

The waters in the E PAC, SW of Baja California, are extremely warm and that will be conducive for sparking an active southern branch as we get deeper into Winter.  Let's see how many tropical systems form in Sept/Oct this Autumn down there as that will give us a hint of the new LRC pattern.

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Hey guys long time no talk, thanks for posting all the good info it's been great! My biggest worry about a super El Niño is traditionally around here in nebraska means a warmer and less snowy winter. I was looking back and anything over 2.0 meant a back loaded winter with season snow totals in the 12-20" range for Lincoln. The winter of 09-10 was around a 1 and we know how that ended up.....two major blizzards with one on x mas eve. Of course the nao and ao both stayed negative pretty much all winter so hopefully the LRC sets up in all of our favors!!

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Great read on the warm Pacific waters a.k.a. the Blob and El Niño. By Dr. Cliff Mass 

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/09/godzilla-el-nino-versus-blob-who-will.html

 

Sounds like the blob is on its last stretch...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Big changes on the CFSv2 regarding the hyped up super "El NINO" which the media has been following.  Their "go-to" model has been the U.S. based CFSv2 which is beginning to show a cooler Pacific, albeit, a Strong El NINO.

 

Here was the forecast from the 2nd week of August...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

 

Now the latest run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

 

Notice the latest 8 forecast members which are all lower than the MEAN forecast BLACK line.  Will this trend continue heading into Oct/Nov???  Let's see...

 

Lastly, the CFSv2 continues to have a cooler ENSO 1.2 Region which is critical to maintain the "Modiki" NINO look and it is maintaining its forecast from before.  This may translate to a lesser "warmer" December pull back after what I think will be a fast start to Winter in November.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif

 

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Some dude on TWC (yeah i know) is saying a heat wave is coming back to midwest mid-late Sept and above normal temps for Oct-Nov for midwest.

I smell a big bust (on their end) for the Oct-Nov forecast...what I'm looking at is completely opposite.  

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Some dude on TWC (yeah i know) is saying a heat wave is coming back to midwest mid-late Sept and above normal temps for Oct-Nov for midwest.

 

For as far as the 18z GFS is concerned it looks like maybe 2 or 3 days in the next 16 will be more then 10° above normal for your are and mine. Center of the heat stays in the central Plains, but kind of south of Iowa. More cool days on that run than warm. By the looks of it you might have a frost by the 20th!

 

Weather Phil mentioned a few days ago; about this winter, is that it might feature an Aleutian Low and a strong one at that. As long as it doesn't become a Gulf of Alaska Low the region should have plenty of winter to go around for all of us. As long as there isn't too much cold air and not enough moisture, but I don't think it would be that dry due to an enhanced southern jet stream.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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For as far as the 18z GFS is concerned it looks like maybe 2 or 3 days in the next 16 will be more then 10° above normal for your are and mine. Center of the heat stays in the central Plains, but kind of south of Iowa. More cool days on that run than warm. By the looks of it you might have a frost by the 20th!

 

Weather Phil mentioned a few days ago; about this winter, is that it might feature an Aleutian Low and a strong one at that. As long as it doesn't become a Gulf of Alaska Low the region should have plenty of winter to go around for all of us. As long as there isn't too much cold air and not enough moisture, but I don't think it would be that dry due to an enhanced southern jet stream.

Several long range models have been showcasing a pattern that would support an Aleutian Low with a trough parked just south of the Aleutian Islands.  The maps I posted from the CFS model in recent weeks continue today to park the Aleutian Low far enough to the West that would support colder weather down stream into the lower 48.  It will be interesting to see how the LRC sets up in Oct/Nov in the N PAC.

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I think it's fascinating to see how this will all turn out. I seem to recall talk of El Niño last year only for that to fizzle away. My guess is well end up with an El Niño this year but not the "Godzilla " El Niño the media is praying for

How you been Bud?  Glad to see your back in action.  It's that time of year again.

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Welcome back Bud!

I know moving takes a lot of time no matter what the distance. 

 

---

 

Seeing breaks in the "Blob".

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The ENSO 3.4 Region is now 2.3C above average...

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/15.png

 

Here was the mid-August Plume...September chart should update today or any day now...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/figure4.gif

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Weather Channel just issued their winter forecast. Thought this was an interesting quote. link is below was well

 

"The strength and location or 'flavor' of the El Niño event suggests that a very warm 1982-83 or 1997-98 winter is quite possible," said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI chief meteorologist. "However, there is some risk of big blocking this winter, driven either by a premature weakening and westward shift (towards the dateline) of the El Niño impacts or by just a general tendency for stronger high-latitude blocking. While this blocking potential does add colder risks for the upcoming winter, we are still leaning towards a slightly cooler variation of the very warm 1982 and 1997 strong Niño events."

 

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-2015-2016-temperature-forecast-december-january-february

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Weather Channel just issued their winter forecast. Thought this was an interesting quote. link is below was well

 

"The strength and location or 'flavor' of the El Niño event suggests that a very warm 1982-83 or 1997-98 winter is quite possible," said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI chief meteorologist. "However, there is some risk of big blocking this winter, driven either by a premature weakening and westward shift (towards the dateline) of the El Niño impacts or by just a general tendency for stronger high-latitude blocking. While this blocking potential does add colder risks for the upcoming winter, we are still leaning towards a slightly cooler variation of the very warm 1982 and 1997 strong Niño events."

 

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-2015-2016-temperature-forecast-december-january-february

 

I can't stand their temperature map. No near normal temperature area anywhere on the map! But they were able to put that on their precipitation maps. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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  • 2 weeks later...

Good write up in Skiling's blog today on the EL Nino. Here is the link for all the details.

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/95-chance-the-strong-el-nino-among-the-strongest-on-record-continues-into-next-year-but-its-impact-on-this-winters-weather-isnt-nearly-as-certain

 

Couple of interesting notes:

" Check out the extent of warmer than normal water in the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska.  Not all of this is El Nino inspired. And the warm ocean waters in the eastern North Pacific and in the Gulf of Alaska (off western North America) have, arguably, had a profound affect on recent winters. Air over the warm ocean waters also warms, and this appears at least one factor in the build-up of a ridge over western North America which has contributed to the diversion of needed precipitation away from the western U.S. while contributing to the ridging (i.e. northward “buckling”) of the jet stream which has kept us cold in recent winters with huge Great Lakes ice buildup.  It wouldn’t be hard to imagine some version of this happening again this winter–and that would profoundly change the current “warmer than normal” winter season forecast"

 

"Snowfall is always the more difficult parameter to predict. But were there to be a colder winter than currently forecast, the effect would be to increase snowfall downwind from the Great Lakes. And, while it may or may not prove relevant, we looked a snow seasons which followed warm Septembers—-i.e. Septembers which finished with temps more than 4-deg above normal, as just-completed Sept 2015 did. We found six such snow seasons—and four of the six finished with above normal snow tallies.  Such an outcome would be the opposite of what one might expect in a strong El Nino cold season."

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Good write up in Skiling's blog today on the EL Nino. Here is the link for all the details.

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/95-chance-the-strong-el-nino-among-the-strongest-on-record-continues-into-next-year-but-its-impact-on-this-winters-weather-isnt-nearly-as-certain

 

Couple of interesting notes:

" Check out the extent of warmer than normal water in the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska.  Not all of this is El Nino inspired. And the warm ocean waters in the eastern North Pacific and in the Gulf of Alaska (off western North America) have, arguably, had a profound affect on recent winters. Air over the warm ocean waters also warms, and this appears at least one factor in the build-up of a ridge over western North America which has contributed to the diversion of needed precipitation away from the western U.S. while contributing to the ridging (i.e. northward “buckling”) of the jet stream which has kept us cold in recent winters with huge Great Lakes ice buildup.  It wouldn’t be hard to imagine some version of this happening again this winter–and that would profoundly change the current “warmer than normal” winter season forecast"

 

"Snowfall is always the more difficult parameter to predict. But were there to be a colder winter than currently forecast, the effect would be to increase snowfall downwind from the Great Lakes. And, while it may or may not prove relevant, we looked a snow seasons which followed warm Septembers—-i.e. Septembers which finished with temps more than 4-deg above normal, as just-completed Sept 2015 did. We found six such snow seasons—and four of the six finished with above normal snow tallies.  Such an outcome would be the opposite of what one might expect in a strong El Nino cold season."

Thanks for posting!  What is very interesting to see is that all 3 models (NASA, GDFL, and the CMC) locking in on high latitude blocking which should transpire into a very cold lower 48.  I think a "torch" winter is not as likely as some suggest, maybe not for the PAC NW/West Coast.

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Very cold? Not likely. And if it is dry will be the theme

Yup, the lower half of the lower 48 will prob end up with the worst negative anomalies than the north...

 

Edit: It's still to early to say when and where it will be dry...

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So far there really hasn't been any prolonged dry streaks since March. 6 months in a row with tallies over 4" - never seen that before. September is usually the drier of the Autumn month, so I'm sure what to expect for this month. Right now I would say will fall a bit below normal unless the short to medium range starts showing more rain. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Just saw the new ENSO 3.4 forecast. Currently at 2.2 and according to this chart it will peak really soon and then dive. Looks like a peak in early November.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Just saw the new ENSO 3.4 forecast. Currently at 2.2 and according to this chart it will peak really soon and then dive. Looks like a peak in early November.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Could this help lead to a back loaded or long lasting Winter?

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Could this help lead to a back loaded or long lasting Winter?

 

Yeah definitely. A postponed spring is likely too.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Have seen some temperature increases in the northeast Pacific - albeit slight.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Nice to see the ENSO 1.2 region cooling and NE PAC warming.  SST's heading towards the JAMSTEC SST forecast which does a very good job predicting oceanic water temps.  The cooling waters near the Bearing Sea and south of Aleutians are critical to creating the Split Flow pattern in the Eastern Pacific.  

 

I think as we get closer towards Winter, we should watch how the GFS & Euro op model handle systems when they enter the NE PAC.  GFS tends to slam systems east, when more than likely they will want to curve to the north into Alaska.  Something to keep an eye on.

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Really seeing those highest water temperature in the central basin. Eastern equatorial Pacific probably has some cooler water being brought up from the south.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Really seeing those highest water temperature in the central basin. Eastern equatorial Pacific probably has some cooler water being brought up from the south.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

ENSO 1.2 region should really start cooling off this month and November.  CFSv2 seeing it...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif

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