Jump to content

2015-2016 el Niño Watch/Discussion


Geos

Recommended Posts

Lol if the cfs said cold you would.be all over it. We can agree to disagree like we did a couple weeks ago. I think february is when winter will show.

Cold is a different story.  How can you object to all the models showing a cooler 1.2 vs 3.4?  Show me evidence 1.2 will warm...I'll believe it then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like ENSO 1+2 region is done warming according to the CFS.

 

The bottom map definitely shows this el Niño is a bit more central based. Not a textbook Modoki el Niño, but more of a hybrid.

 

 

  • Like 3

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a update on big strong El Nino years. Above I mentioned the Feb 25th storm but left out the March 17 1973 storm when 21.3" fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area.

 

Yeah, that March of '73 storm also pummeled Jackson with a 20" storm. Guess I didn't realize that was a Strong Nino season. So, in summary, per above by Geos, when we have an East-based Nino our best chance for a legit storm comes at the tail end of winter, early spring. This year's nino is leaning toward a "hybrid" event which, when combined with low solar coldness, should pull our best chance(s) forward a month (or two?). That's my take on it anyways.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, that March of '73 storm also pummeled Jackson with a 20" storm. Guess I didn't realize that was a Strong Nino season. So, in summary, per above by Geos, when we have an East-based Nino our best chance for a legit storm comes at the tail end of winter, early spring.

---------------->

This year's nino is leaning toward a "hybrid" event which, when combined with low solar coldness, should pull our best chance(s) forward a month (or two?). That's my take on it anyways.

I think so. One key to remember here also is that in a hybrid type event, as shown in the typical maps above here, is that you can end up with a muted ENSO temperature profile over the CONUS. Less warm northwest and less cool southeast. My mind says that winter can onset much more quickly because of this and I think we'll see the key pieces move more towards that as we go through the rest of this month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The warming of waters south of the Aleutians is pretty impressive.  It's part of the reason why we have seen a -PNA pattern since the beginning of November and looks to continue this month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

We'll have to monitor this trend as it could  bode well for a continued cooler west/central and warm east as we roll into December.  The big difference may be heading forward, December could produce more blocking that we haven't had thus far in November which is why we ended up torching the first part of the month.

 

The eastern GOM has been warming quite dramatically as well as the SE coast line.  If a weak Bermuda HP sets up occasionally this Winter, there will be some fun times ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, Tom.

 

That sst change map looks like it's moving more towards an NPAC profile like 2013-14 over time. Could the PDO already be weakening?

Prob not...don't expect it to weaken till later in Winter, maybe by late Feb/March and certainly in the Spring.  The pattern setting up for next Winter is going to look pretty nice for the west and the Plains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, Tom.

 

That sst change map looks like it's moving more towards an NPAC profile like 2013-14 over time. Could the PDO already be weakening?

It's starting to warm significantly in the NE PAC over the last couple days.  Heading in the right direction.  The blob is focusing it's warmth near the NW NAMER coastline which is ideally where you want it to be to promote ridging in NW NAMER during the Winter where the global models are painting it.

 

CTiWLS8VEAA_H-T.jpg

 

 

 

2nd day in a row for rise in 1.2.  Most every met I have read had said there would be another rise.  They were right.

Minimal, and at this point in the game, not a big deal when comparing to the 3.4 region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

gosaints, on 11 Nov 2015 - 07:27 AM, said:snapback.png

2nd day in a row for rise in 1.2.  Most every met I have read had said there would be another rise.  They were right.

Minimal, and at this point in the game, not a big deal when comparing to the 3.4 region.

 

It's starting to warm significantly in the NE PAC over the last couple days.  Heading in the right direction.  The blob is focusing it's warmth near the NW NAMER coastline which is ideally where you want it to be to promote ridging in NW NAMER during the Winter where the global models are painting it.

 

CTiWLS8VEAA_H-T.jpg

 

 

 

Minimal, and at this point in the game, not a big deal when comparing to the 3.4 region.

Yep the second warmest 1.2 ever is no big deal.  Whatever.  October was gonna be cold because of the NE pacific as was november.  December???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

gosaints, on 11 Nov 2015 - 07:27 AM, said:snapback.png

Minimal, and at this point in the game, not a big deal when comparing to the 3.4 region.

 

Yep the second warmest 1.2 ever is no big deal.  Whatever.  October was gonna be cold because of the NE pacific as was november.  December???

 

No one is denying 1.2 is warm.  The nature of what is happening in the entire equatorial Pacific is fascinating and remarkable.  I think your focusing on the 1.2 bc of your warm bias.  Meanwhile, after the warm October we experienced I realized the SST Analogs totally busted on that part.  I never said November would be cold, but rather, we would have a Fast Start to Winter which is looking likely now.  Keep it up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No one is denying 1.2 is warm.  The nature of what is happening in the entire equatorial Pacific is fascinating and remarkable.  I think your focusing on the 1.2 bc of your warm bias.  Meanwhile, after the warm October we experienced I realized the SST Analogs totally busted on that part.  I never said November would be cold, but rather, we would have a Fast Start to Winter which is looking likely now.  Keep it up.

2 days ago you ripped me for saying 1.2 would warm.  It warmed and now it didnt warm enough for you.  Its gonna snow and I think there will be some large storms and in between there will be more melting than we are accustomed to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 days ago you ripped me for saying 1.2 would warm.  It warmed and now it didnt warm enough for you.  Its gonna snow and I think there will be some large storms and in between there will be more melting than we are accustomed to.

No, I was under the impression you thought 1.2 would warm more than 3.4.  That is why I posted the CFSv2 1.2 graphic showing it is much cooler than 3.4.  Another reason why I asked for evidence showing 1.2 would warm more than 3.4.

 

Anyway, def going to see wild swings this season.  I already can say that there will be some nasty ridges out ahead of some powerhouse storms that develop in the central CONUS.  This year's LRC is about set and we'll start to see it repeat soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have no doubt there will be plenty of storms this winter, some major ones too. My main concern will be the lack of cold air associated with these storms, since the arctic will be cut off for the most part this winter. Especially for Dec/Jan. Will be expecting more cold rains than snowstorms for the early part of the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have no doubt there will be plenty of storms this winter, some major ones too. My main concern will be the lack of cold air associated with these storms, since the arctic will be cut off for the most part this winter. Especially for Dec/Jan. Will be expecting more cold rains than snowstorms for the early part of the winter.

There's a pretty decent body of proof that shows that November AO state has no bearing on the winter AO state. November 1977 holds the record for highest known November AO at over 4+ if I'm not mistaken.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I found this chart comparison to previous El Nino's (both strong/moderate) and when comparing all of them, only this year's El Nino will peak earlier rather than later during Winter.  There is no good comparison if you were to use that as an analog.  Again, finding that this year's El Nino is indeed in uncharted territory.

Looks like early december will be peak.  Very similar to both previous episodes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ENSO 3.4 Region torching even farther causing considerable forcing in the central Pacific which is influencing the Pacific jet south of the Aleutians.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

ENSO 1.2 region looks like it has plateaued...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

 

Notice this graphic (Courtesy Weather2020) and it clearly shows the central Pacific blossoming with storm activity...feeding off of the energy generated by the very warm waters...

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Screen-Shot-2015-11-13-at-8.08.35-AM-640x418.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weekly ENSO SST Anomalies...

 

 

She's moving westward!

 

What is this... an el Niño or a la Niña?!

Very dry for most of California...

 

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So is anyone else confused by the fact that there's a giant El Niño but yet it is having little to no influence on the weather patterns right now?

Isnt it true that the effects of  El nino are actually strongest post peak.  I read some literature the el nino effects in November are slight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isnt it true that the effects of El nino are actually strongest post peak. I read some literature the el nino effects in November are slight.

I don't really know, tbh. There's so much misconception, misinformation and hype around this thing that there's no telling. Maybe I can do some good research this evening and figure it out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great write up from JB this morning on WxBell indicating that this November's SOI rise is prob the greatest one on record during an El Nino event.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_11_22_at_8_20_29_AM.png

 

Strong easterlies have been pushing the warmest waters into the central Pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/uv200-30d.gif

 

 

 

.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

All the important players on the field are indicating that the U.S. will be experiencing a fascinating Winter ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the strong easterlies continue then we might end up with a true Modoki el Niño pattern, at least in the atmosphere. Waters will start cooling in 1.2 in the coming month.

 

It will be interesting to watch the warm pool migrate across the Pacific day after day.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the strong easterlies continue then we might end up with a true Modoki el Niño pattern, at least in the atmosphere. Waters will start cooling in 1.2 in the coming month.

 

It will be interesting to watch the warm pool migrate across the Pacific day after day.

Good luck with that. Signs of nino are coming to fruition. Hard to ignore

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015112212/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.png

Blocking HP's in Canada...southern jet becoming active...def signs of a Nino...although, that trough south of the Aleutians is NOT a sign of a normal Nino.  You'd have to focus that trough farther on the coast of NW NAMER.  That is a stormy looking pattern for the lower 48.  Enough cold air out of Canada can seep down into the lower 48 from blocking HP's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...