Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) '21-'22

[Chris]

Here's an article previously posted by Geos on SSW's and how they can bail out a snowless winter in the PNW lowlands, even in an El Nino.  Some of the classic PNW winters were started by an SSW.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/

[Cloud]

Some additional resources. 
 

Judah Cohen Blog from Oct 11.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
 

And series of tweets from Simon Lee. Some interesting analogs. 

 

[snow_wizard]

On 10/11/2021 at 3:42 PM, Chris said:

Here's an article previously posted by Geos on SSW's and how they can bail out a snowless winter in the PNW lowlands, even in an El Nino.  Some of the classic PNW winters were started by an SSW.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/

That graphic showing the evolution of the SSW last winter is pretty amazing.

[Chris]

No SSW on the horizon.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Chris said:

No SSW on the horizon.

Not yet!

I’m starting to become interested in the period around the Holidays. But still many ways that could fail.

 

[Chris]

The vortex is on roids until mid December at least, says GFS.

[Phil]

Yup. If it happens it’ll be mid-January at earliest, IMO.

[Chris]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Scandinavian Ridge/NW-Pacific trough. Much better pattern for wave driving. Shift it slightly eastward and it’s even better.

Keep that pattern going for several weeks and the statistical likelihood of a SSW increases markedly.

 

[Chris]

A little bit of movement now forecasted...finally.

[Phil]

 

[Chris]

It's coming?

[Chris]

 

Historical SSW's

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Chris said:

 

Historical SSW's

Can add Feb 2018, Jan 2019, and Jan 2021 to that.