Chris Posted October 11, 2021 Report Share Posted October 11, 2021 Here's an article previously posted by Geos on SSW's and how they can bail out a snowless winter in the PNW lowlands, even in an El Nino. Some of the classic PNW winters were started by an SSW. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Some additional resources. Judah Cohen Blog from Oct 11. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ And series of tweets from Simon Lee. Some interesting analogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/11/2021 at 3:42 PM, Chris said: Here's an article previously posted by Geos on SSW's and how they can bail out a snowless winter in the PNW lowlands, even in an El Nino. Some of the classic PNW winters were started by an SSW. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/ That graphic showing the evolution of the SSW last winter is pretty amazing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted November 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 No SSW on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Chris said: No SSW on the horizon. Not yet! I’m starting to become interested in the period around the Holidays. But still many ways that could fail. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted December 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 The vortex is on roids until mid December at least, says GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Yup. If it happens it’ll be mid-January at earliest, IMO. 1 Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 44 minutes ago, Phil said: Scandinavian Ridge/NW-Pacific trough. Much better pattern for wave driving. Shift it slightly eastward and it’s even better. Keep that pattern going for several weeks and the statistical likelihood of a SSW increases markedly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted December 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2021 A little bit of movement now forecasted...finally. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2021 Report Share Posted December 14, 2021 Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 It's coming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 Historical SSW's 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Chris said: Historical SSW's Can add Feb 2018, Jan 2019, and Jan 2021 to that. 1 Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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