August 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Geos]

79° for a high today here. Nice cool night tonight. Won't be too many more weeks before the lows dip under 50° again.

[Tom]

Its finally nice to crack the window open during these cool nights.  20 days and counting with 80F+ days...streak should continue atleast for a few more days if we don't get rain on Friday.  The last time we had this many 80's in a row was back in 2013.

[james1976]

Yeah, mid 50s at night over here and around 80 for highs. It's nice to open the windows.

[Tom]

Yeah, mid 50s at night over here and around 80 for highs. It's nice to open the windows.

Reminds me of the weather living out in AZ during the Spring months.  Can't complain.

[james1976]

Today we have made it to 77. I wonder if it will hit 80. Mid-level clouds are moving in. Some lower 70s in W. IA.
http://ftpcontent6.worldnow.com/kwwl/wsiweather/Iowa_Temperatures_640.jpg

[Tom]

Taking a peak out towards the following weekend, it looks like the weather may be turning out quite nice for the Air and Water show (Fri-Sun).  I've always wanted to check out the practice show on Friday when the crowds are not nearly as bad.  Hope nature plays well!

 

http://www.cityofchicago.org/city/en/depts/dca/supp_info/chicago_air_and_watershow.html

[Geos]

Today has just been gloomy cloudy and unnecessarily humid. About ready for September weather now.

High of 74°. Wish it would just rain and get it over with!

[Hawkeye]

Got a nice 1.07" of rain overnight, perfect timing given the dry last week and dry next week.  A heavier band of 3-4+ inches fell from central to southeast Iowa.

[Geos]

Talk about a stagnant weather pattern this weekend. Clouds, no wind, and few sprinkles is all. Maybe had 10 minutes of sun yesterday morning.

[Tom]

The streak of 80F+ days may end today unless the sun pops out and goes to work.  We are currently sitting at 24 consecutive days.  It's been an amazing 3+ weeks of pleasant weather.  The lawns around here are turning brown in spots.  Certainly need the rain.  Hopefully we get some storms today/tomorrow.

[Geos]

Streak of 80° days ended on the 3rd here. Had 7 days in a row starting on July 27th.

Clocked about 30 minutes of sun today. Made it to 77°.

[Tom]

Here was Wx Bell's Winter forecast back in April...

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_08_09_at_7_56_11_PM.png

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_08_09_at_7_56_31_PM.png

 

 

They are expecting to makes some adjustments to the forecast at the end of the month.  JB noted that the "heaviest" band of snowfall may be from the southern Rockies into the mid Atlantic.  An active southern branch seems to be the consensus from all the various global models.

[Tom]

About 3 weeks I posted the CFS snowfall maps in both Siberia and North America.  The overall trend in the model hasn't skipped a beat in Siberia.  Here is the models "guesstimate" by October 15...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/09/basis00/noas/weas/15101500_0900.gif

 

And by Oct 31st....

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/09/basis00/noas/weas/15103112_0900.gif

 

Judging by this models guidance, I'd imagine the SAI Theory would have some clout this Fall/Winter.

 

Meantime, October starts off relatively mild in the lower 48 but then turns real chilly to close out the month.  Snow cover in Alaska & Canada begins to expand.

 

October 1st...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/09/basis00/namk/weas/15100112_0900.gif

 

October 31st...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/09/basis00/namk/weas/15103112_0900.gif

 

 

Let's see if the trend continues as we get closer to September.

[Tom]

Interesting weather facts for Illinois.  It was the wettest May-July on record this year...

 

https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/08/07/wettest-may-july-on-record-for-illinois/

 

Finally got some brief showers early this morning.  Pretty damp out there today.  Managed to hit 80F at ORD yesterday...the streak continues at 24 days.  Should tack on another one today.

[Tom]

Pretty decent showers beginning to fire in N IL along the cold front pushing south...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150810.1600.gif

[Tom]

Tack on another 80F+ day...already at 81F at ORD...looking out in the mid/long range, if we can manage to get by with out going sub 80F from now til Wed, I think we can add another 8-10 days to the streak.  Pretty remarkable.

[Tom]

Could be some decent ringers today...

 

[Tom]

You can begin to see the models starting to see the jet increase in strength as the seasonal shift begins near Alaska over the next 1-2 weeks.  Both Euro/GFS ensembles see a trough build in up that way.

 

This will be quite the change as Summer begins to fade up near the Yukon where there are still some fires to be extinguished...

[james1976]

From everything I've been reading here and around the net it seems like this year's low solar activity will be a big difference compared to El Nino's in the past. I'm really hoping for some strong systems to hit the midwest.

[Tom]

CFS has been teasing me over the past few days and trying to signal some snow at the end of October with some real chill for the time of year.  It's been also trying to paint that Aleutian Low west of Alaska, near the colder waters that many of the Global Models are expecting that trough to develop.  In essence, it pumps that ridge and unleashes colder weather down stream into our region.  Could this be the first signs of what the new LRC will be??? 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/10/basis00/namk/weas/15102800_1000.gif

[james1976]

CFS has been teasing me over the past few days and trying to signal some snow at the end of October with some real chill for the time of year.  It's been also trying to paint that Aleutian Low west of Alaska, near the colder waters that many of the Global Models are expecting that trough to develop.  In essence, it pumps that ridge and unleashes colder weather down stream into our region.  Could this be the first signs of what the new LRC will be??? 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/10/basis00/namk/weas/15102800_1000.gif

You tease!! Wouldn't that be something.....

[james1976]

Updated Winter Outlook from this site. They update it every month. Shows a few of the maps that Tom posts.
http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

[Geos]

Saw an appreciable amount of rain today from the convection that was pretty unexpected. 1.40" total. Puddles of water everywhere is going to further the mosquito population.

[Tom]

Pretty decent cool down showing up on the Euro ensembles and operational model nxt Mon-Thu.  It starts in the Plains and then heads into the Lakes.  GFS doesn't see it.  In fact, Day 10 it has a ridge in the Plains where the Euro has a trough.  Euro vs GFS

[Tom]

It was a bit humid this morning, but now the northerly winds starting to kick in and becoming gusty at times which in turn are lowering the humidity levels into the 50's.  Nice day today for sure.

 

 

The weekend still looking fantastic for the 57th Annual Air and Water show.

[Tom]

12z GFS starting to turn the corner and looks like its starting to cave in slowly towards the 00z Euro for next weeks pattern.  Finally, the LRC's cold phase should begin.  I don't think it will be nearly as impressive as it was in the beginning of July due to the seasonal differences and because the jet is much weaker this time of year.  However, the rains accompanied with this cool down will be appreciated.

[Geos]

76/62 at Racine. Yeah drier for sure. Plenty of sun to dry things out today as well.

[Tom]

The mountains of the Yukon & NW Territories get their first appreciable snows of the season over the next 10 days.  The arctic really begins to cool next week and beyond as snow and ice may start an earlier build up this year as we get deeper into late August/early September.

[james1976]

No cool down on 18z GFS for next week. See if tonight's Euro holds.

[Tom]

Pretty potent cool shot coming into the Plains/Midwest next Wed/Thu...

 

Last night we had some great sleeping weather with temps in the low 60's.  Finally nice to crack the window open and have low humidity levels!

 

 

[james1976]

Pretty potent cool shot coming into the Plains/Midwest next Wed/Thu...

 

Last night we had some great sleeping weather with temps in the low 60's.  Finally nice to crack the window open and have low humidity levels!

Haha thats funny! Was just gonna ask you what last night's Euro looked like. You beat me to it.

[Tom]

It is very interesting to see how much the heights fall in Alaska/NW Territories over the next couple weeks.  The CFS saw this coming back in July.  Just like with the last 2 seasons, if you build that snow cover early up there in the Fall (I personally don't think we'll see a snow cover up there till late Sept), once we get into Winter and the seasonal variations trigger that ridge to build due to the warm waters hugging NW NAMER, I think your going to get a big fight this Winter season in the lower 48.

 

 

Solar continues to trend lower and lower...

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

[Tom]

I've been poking around and finding some interesting trends in the CFS/CFSv2 during the J-M period, and possibly even into April.  I remember reading somewhere that these stronger modiki El NINO's typically get going mid/late Winter and the final cattle prod to the winter season is late season blocking.  Given the status of our Low Solar and other various symptoms to the way I could see this coming Winter season play out, I'm beginning to think that this could be another longer lasting Winter well into the Spring months.

 

Checkout what the latest CFS model is "seeing" for the Feb-Apr period.  Not only is the CFS, but its brother the CFSv2 is seeing a classic 500mb pattern that sets up high latitude blocking and a jet cutting underneath the lower 48 during this period.  Just my 2 cents, but an interesting season is setting up in my eyes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

Knowing the models bias of setting up a trough in the NE PACIFIC where the waters are warm, nudge that trough farther west, pump that ridge even more in NW NAMER, you have yourself a fun pattern in the lower 48.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd6.gif

[Tom]

As we head into September, the 4 corners/S Cali may start to see the E PAC become active.  We usually see signs of the new LRC setting up in late September and to see the STJ light up, it could begin to highlight the new pattern heading into the Fall months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150812.201509.gif

[Yerf]

Take this for what it's worth

 

Cooler-Than-Normal Air to Chill Midwest and Great Lakes Area

This fall, the Midwest will be milder overall compared to fall of 2014, but it doesn't mean the crop-growing region will be in the clear of occasional early shots of cold air.

"The Midwest could get an early shot of chill in the second or third week of September that can get cold enough to produce frost," Pastelok said.

Wild temperature swings are possible at times, with quick snaps of cold followed by a week of warmer weather.

As for late fall and into the early winter season, there is an opportunity for a storm track to come to places like Chicago and Indianapolis, according to AccuWeather long-range forecasters.

[Tom]

Earlier this month, the NE Pacific had pockets of cooler water, but now its beginning to boil up again.  A ridge of HP will develop over this area during the next several weeks, so I expect these waters to warm considerably.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.8.3.2015.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.8.10.2015.gif

[Tom]

Take this for what it's worth

BBlFUJO.jpg

 

BBlFUJO.jpg

Cooler-Than-Normal Air to Chill Midwest and Great Lakes Area

This fall, the Midwest will be milder overall compared to fall of 2014, but it doesn't mean the crop-growing region will be in the clear of occasional early shots of cold air.

"The Midwest could get an early shot of chill in the second or third week of September that can get cold enough to produce frost," Pastelok said.

Wild temperature swings are possible at times, with quick snaps of cold followed by a week of warmer weather.

As for late fall and into the early winter season, there is an opportunity for a storm track to come to places like Chicago and Indianapolis, according to AccuWeather long-range forecasters.

I can see the September cool shots towards the end of the month.  The CFS has been hinting at that over the last couple weeks.  Would love to see the storm track come into fruition nearby in late Fall.

[Tom]

Here are some precip maps for Oct/Nov off of the CFSv2...

[james1976]

Nice stuff to look at. Thanks for posting all that.

[james1976]

It almost looks like those CFSv2 maps are trying to set up a storm track.