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August 2015 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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It almost looks like those CFSv2 maps are trying to set up a storm track.

Ya, I think early on in the season we could see some systems ejecting out of the Rockies and heading up towards the Lakes region.  That is normally the typical late Fall/early Winter pattern anyway.  Pretty interesting stuff to see but again, we'll just have to wait and see how this all unfolds down the road.

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Today's JAMSTEC run starting to turn around from it's July "flip flop".  I had a feeling last months run was a fluke one and today's August run showing what makes more sense.  Last month it had a cooler Alaska and flooded the U.S. with warmth, but now, its warmed NW NAMER and starting to fill the Eastern CONUS with cold.  It'll take another month or two, but I think it will be much colder for a larger part of the eastern 2/3 of the nation.

 

Those very warm waters in the NE Pacific will be one of the 2 key oceanic elements that will drive our weather pattern down stream.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1jul2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

 

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To add to my recent post today about late season blocking in these type of Winter set ups, now we have the JAMSTEC agreeing with the CFS/CFSv2 that this could drag on into Spring.  BTW, anyone planning on doing some skiing/snow boarding in the Rockies this Fall, I think the slopes will have plentiful amounts of snow early on!

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2016.1aug2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2016.1aug2015.gif

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From: Accu-weather

 

They are seeing a milder winter than last year.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-us-fall-forecast-winter-preview/51471589

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The beat goes on...27 days and counting!  It's been a remarkable run around here and it doesn't look to end anytime soon!  Should tack on a couple more 90's this weekend if storms don't pop up on Saturday.

 

As the trough builds near Alaska, the U.S. should flood with warm late next week.  I don't think the LRC's cold phase will be having much of an impact during this cycle.  Therefore, I'm expecting a balmy 2nd half of August.

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GFS still isnt wanting to cool down much for next week. Whats Euro showing now?

70's, its not as cool as it was before.  Guess the GFS won this battle.  It's funny, bc I've noticed the GFS beating the Euro model lately this Summer.  I remember the GFS had done much better last year in the late Summer/early Fall regime, then the Euro started to act better as we head into Winter.

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The beat goes on...27 days and counting!  It's been a remarkable run around here and it doesn't look to end anytime soon!  Should tack on a couple more 90's this weekend if storms don't pop up on Saturday.

 

As the trough builds near Alaska, the U.S. should flood with warm late next week.  I don't think the LRC's cold phase will be having much of an impact during this cycle.  Therefore, I'm expecting a balmy 2nd half of August.

 

Amazing how many more 80s you've had than up here. Only 7 days in a row at Waukegan with highs at or above 80° this whole summer!

Month is running below normal along the northshore.

Temps busted low today. High of 81° it looks like. 

Dewpoints still not that bad.

 

Down to 14 hours of daylight now. About an hour and 18 minutes of daylight loss since the solstice. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Autumn settling in fast up near the Arctic circle.  Barrow, AK may get their first snow flakes of the season next week.  I just read some stats and they average 1" of snow in August.

 

According to the 18z GFS, parts of AK gets some snowfall in the mountainous regions.  A cooler than normal setting up that way over the next several weeks.

 

While that region cools, we are set to bake!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015081318/gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

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Nasty looking ridge develops on the 12z GFS in the NE PAC.  Wonder if the models were underplaying the amount cooler weather that may invade the U.S. in the longer range.  The LRC's cold phase is supposed to hit during this period and the EPO Index should tank.  Let's see how this evolves.

 

I've been paying attn to the AO/NAO this summer and since around July, both indexes have been predominantly negative.  I wonder if the declining solar activity is helping with blocking and the big IF is, will the trend continue into this Fall/Winter???

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

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12Z GFS showing a couple of interesting things. First it shows a monster storm moving through the Plains next Tuesday and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Dr Forbes is already talking about a potential severe weather/tornado outbreak.

Then at the end of the run(I know 2 weeks away from now) it shows freezing temperatures up in northern Minnesota.

Interesting run!!

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12Z GFS showing a couple of interesting things. First it shows a monster storm moving through the Plains next Tuesday and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Dr Forbes is already talking about a potential severe weather/tornado outbreak.

Then at the end of the run(I know 2 weeks away from now) it shows freezing temperatures up in northern Minnesota.

Interesting run!!

I saw that...was gonna post. Yup, 850 0s at the end of the run. See how it plays out. A lot of flip flopping will happen.

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12Z GFS showing a couple of interesting things. First it shows a monster storm moving through the Plains next Tuesday and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Dr Forbes is already talking about a potential severe weather/tornado outbreak.

Then at the end of the run(I know 2 weeks away from now) it shows freezing temperatures up in northern Minnesota.

Interesting run!!

12z Euro for the same period early next week has a weaker system.  I read Gary Lezak's blog a few days ago regarding this part of the cold phase of this year's LRC and how it compares to the Nov 11th arctic outbreak.  During that cycle, as well as the other cycles, it was more of a frontal passage.  If a wound up storm does in fact form, that may be interesting to see and possibly a hint of what we may see this Autumn.  Hopefully there will be more wound up systems in the future.

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Storms up near Green Bay look to be heading down the western shore of Lake MI could be interesting later on if they hold together.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yeah I think the western shoreline south of Milwaukee will get in on the action as well as the evening goes on. Atmosphere is primed up here.

Anvils tops streaming overhead now.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Great looking line moving in. Mammatus clouds roll cloud all moving in. A lot of lightning with this line as well.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Great looking line moving in. Mammatus clouds roll cloud all moving in. A lot of lightning with this line as well.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20150815.0109.gif

I just picked up my Dad from O'hare and I could see the vivid lighting display in the distance.  Should be a quick hitting storm but more importantly, we need the rain around here.

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I just picked up my Dad from O'hare and I could see the vivid lighting display in the distance.  Should be a quick hitting storm but more importantly, we need the rain around here.

 

This storm has the most lightning out of any other this year by far. Will load a video up shortly.

 

https://video-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xpf1/v/t42.1790-2/11851959_10207751864661523_558008000_n.mp4?efg=eyJybHIiOjMwMCwicmxhIjo1MTJ9&rl=300&vabr=85&oh=a35e07d3c840ed48e1882715ffc782f8&oe=55CED351

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Officially tagged 90F at ORD yesterday which gives us 6 total for the year.  If we can hit 90F both today and tomorrow, it will be the cities first official Heat wave of the year!  Haven't been able to say that in a couple summers, prob since the torch Summer of 2012 if my memory serves me right.

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CFS not backing down on a chilly end to the month of October and now a pretty darn cold open to November.  Just to give you a glimpse, here were last night's run for low temps on Halloween night.  I'm just showing this as guidance...there may even be some flakes of snow flying around somewhere in the central CONUS.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/15/basis00/namk/tmax/15103112_1500.gif

 

 

Like last year, another fast start to Winter is showing up and is I opinion-ed months ago would probably happen because of the warm waters in the NE PAC....

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/15/basis00/namk/weas/15110500_1500.gif

 

Predicted high temps...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/15/basis00/namk/tmax/15110500_1500.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/08/15/basis00/namk/tmax/15110800_1500.gif

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Nice video, Geos!

 

Thanks.

The lightning was the main show. Not a lot of rain, no hail, few wind gusts above 40mph.

 

Cells starting to pop in the very humid environment to the west. Might want to watch the lake breeze convergence for storms this afternoon.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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No storms here, but they were not far away. High of 85° today. Very humid with dewpoints over 70° most of the day.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Interesting looking system for August standards this week.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Dc0ENzd.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/mLWr0Kb.gif

Yeah DMX with a fun disco this morning. Looks like an active week, which will be a big change from what we have seen lately. The potential is there on Wed to see record low max temps. A lot of cold air is expected to wrap around this system. Very interesting for August.

http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html

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Yeah DMX with a fun disco this morning. Looks like an active week, which will be a big change from what we have seen lately. The potential is there on Wed to see record low max temps. A lot of cold air is expected to wrap around this system. Very interesting for August.

http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html

Your area may be in the right spot for some of the coolest weather next week.  A taste of Autumn???

 

Today is downright muggy, hot and humid.  I decided not to go to the Air & Water Show today.  Was hoping to get on a boat but everyone was full.  During yesterday's show, 2 performing parachutists collide and were injured on the way down.  One hit a building near the Gold Coast and the other landed awkwardly on the beach. 

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12z GFS at 7pm Tuesday. Those are some impressively low temps in the Plains!

 

 

Wednesday night is going to be great weather for sleeping... with the windows open.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Surprisingly, ORD only hit 89F while surrounding burbs hit 90F...NO official heat wave Yet this Summer.  Wonder if this was our last chance in getting a string of 90's.

 

Looking forward to some storminess this week as well as the moisture that is headed our way.

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Only 88° here yesterday. Looks like one more day of 80s and then back to the 70s. This summer has had less heat than last!

 

Longest stretch of 80s last year was 8 days and 5 of those days were in September, lol.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Share on other sites

Only 88° here yesterday. Looks like one more day of 80s and then back to the 70s. This summer has had less heat than last!

 

Longest stretch of 80s last year was 8 days and 5 of those days were in September, lol.

Your remote area has been the coolest in the region it seems as well as other cities right on the lake.  This summer def seems warmer than last year around here.  We'll have to see how this September works out.  I wouldn't mind days in the low/mid 70's and cool nights!

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Interesting storm coming mid-week. Looks to go negative tilt and highs only in the 60s on the backside with strong winds. Hope we see dynamic systems like this this coming winter!

No kidding!  12z GFS showing a 991mb SLP near MSP.  Pretty wild to see such a strong storm in late August.

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