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August 2015 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Probably see some lows in the 40s before the month is out. About right on time.

 

Storms today contain monsoon type rain rates and hail. Drove through dime sized hail in Kenosha County around 5:30. Had to pull over at one point - the visibility got so bad.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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We finally received some appreciable rains last night IMBY.  Surrounding suburbs and parts of the city were drenched:

 

Location                          rainfall(inches)

Lake-of-4-Seasons (IN)        6.18

Lake-of-4-Seasons (IN)        5.05

Portage (IN)                         4.54

Valparaiso                            4.48

Valparaiso                            4.23

Gale Academy-Chicago        4.97

Altus Academy-Chicago       3.67

Hammond Ele. Chicago       3.46

Portage (IN)                           3.39

Chicago 2.7 WNW                 3.39

Rensselaer                            3.38

Valparaiso                             3.37

Oak Park                               3.14

Flanagan IL                            2.89

LaGrange Park  IL                2.87

Chebanse   IL                         2.70

Elmhurst  IL                          2.65

 

00z Euro indicating a stronger and more potent cool shot next Sun-Wed in the region.  Defintely going to get a taste of Autumn around here next week.  The streak of 80's may end at 33 if we crack 80F today.  Can't wait to feel that Canadian Air tomorrow.

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NE PAC waters starting to torch as a ridge of HP developed here and will continue to  strengthen over the next 2 weeks.  Meanwhile, some cooler eddy's showing up in the ENSO 1.2 Region.  The waters off the Baja coast are still very warm which should start spawning Tropical systems over the next couple months.

 

 

 

 

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Pretty crazy rain totals for my county. I received around 3" in two days, to my north there was 8-10" totals and numerous roads washed out or flooded. The platte river jumped back up and is pretty much full from bank to bank. 

 

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 1120 AM CDT...THE POLK COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED MANY
GRAVEL ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER. SOME OF THESE
GRAVEL ROADS HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT IN SPOTS. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
TWO DAYS HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AROUND 9 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTY.

* FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL POLK
COUNTY.

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Had 2-5" of rain over most of Omaha and suburbs overnight and this morning. It was a very electric storm last night for a while and there were several structure fires started by lightning too. Also had a school closed due to flooding issues with roof and ceiling damage as well.

Now comes the cool weather for a day or so before the next strong system moves through on Saturday.

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Didn't get too much rain here last night, but we did back on the 10th.

 

Looks like typical storms here tonight. Severe is south where the more unstable air is. ... away from the lake.

 

77° for a high today

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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New Tornado Warning for a cell over the west suburbs

 

TORNADO WARNING
ILC043-190130-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0036.150819T0105Z-150819T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
805 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 805 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DOWNERS GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LOMBARD...WESTMONT AND CLARENDON HILLS AROUND 810 PM CDT.
HINSDALE...OAK BROOK AND YORK CENTER AROUND 815 PM CDT.
ELMHURST...VILLA PARK...BENSENVILLE AND NORTHLAKE AROUND 820 PM
CDT.
FRANKLIN PARK AROUND 825 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
GLENBARD SOUTH...OAKBROOK TERRACE...BERKELEY AND WILLOWBROOK.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Low to mid 50s in SD under the defo band. Impressive for mid to late August!

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is cool looking.

 

 

Looks like a tropical storm on a miniature scale.

 

0.75" of rain so far.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is cool looking.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20150819.0319.gif

 

Looks like a tropical storm on a miniature scale.

 

0.75" of rain so far.

I believe that storm had a Tornado Warning earlier on.  Pretty cool how that storm fell apart and then it took on a cyclonic shape on radar.

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officially ended up with 4.07" of rain since Sunday night here. There were some reports of nearly 8" of rain in southwest Omaha. Didn't think I would be able to get an official measurement at my house as I have recently moved and haven't had time to set up my rain gauge yet, but I accidentally left a bowl outside that caught all of the rain over the last couple of days :P

Very chilly this morning with low 50s and a strong wind gusting up to 30 mph. 

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Absolutely pleasant out there today with the dropping humidity levels, albeit a bit windy, it's not that bad with the sunshine out.  Enjoying the mid 70's IMBY.

 

James, I bet the low 60's and cloudiness is a shock to your system!  Get out there and make a bonfire tonight!

 

2 powerful Typhoon's are poised to hit near Japan over the next 5-7 days.  Not sure how this will effect our weather downstream as it is a bit more complicated.  The strongest Typhoon, Atsani, re-curves east of Japan and then heads towards the Aleutian Islands.  Typhoon Rule would suggest a trough in our region right around Labor Day weekend.

 

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https://www.insuramatch.com/news/farmers-almanac-predictions-northeast-2015-2016

 

I like where it saids "The midwest can expect frigid weather" I just hope that does not come with dry weather.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Windows are open and some fall scented candles are lit here!

 

Made it to 74° here today. Variably to mostly cloudy all day, breezy as well. Definitely feels like early autumn tonight.

 

Looks like another trough moves in for the weekend.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Brrr, a bit nippy out there this morning and brisk!  Low stratus deck ain't warming temps up that much and sitting in the low 60's currently.  I think everyone has gotten their first taste of Autumn this month.

 

Saw this article regarding Corn and Soybean conditions in Illinois and surprisingly, the last 2 years beat out this year...

https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/corn-and-soybean-conditions-in-illinois-are-not-as-good-as-last-two-years/

 

The latest NMME Oct-Dec outlook has tons of precip for the lower 48...a pocket of cooler weather in the central/southern part of the nation...

CMsuZOnUsAA41eq.png

CMsufVsUEAALjYa.png

 

 

Here's another interesting article I read that gives one opinion regarding the upcoming Winter.  It highlights some important factors which I've commented on before and that includes what should be an epic battle between the warm waters in the NE PAC and the Strong El NINO.

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/18/winter_weather_preview_thanks_to_el_nino_we_know_what_s_coming.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_bot

 

 

I like the look of the NMME for Jan-Mar...with that type of warming in the Arcitc, you can imagine the type of battle there will be in the lower 48...

CMswLw_U8AAuW8Y.png

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The JMA Monthlies just came in on the 16th and I like what I'm seeing over the next 3 months.  First, lets start off by looking at the Sept outlook below.  Notice the deepening trough south of the Aleutians as the jet stream begins to strengthen in the northern latitudes.  I believe this will be a common feature going forward as we head deeper into Fall/Winter and we'll see the ridge strengthen in NW NAMER (which many of the global models have locked into already).  The desert SW turns wet, probably due to tropical moisture, which will eventually turn into an active STJ down the road.  The JMA does, however, see a cooler central U.S. and Great Lakes next month.

 

 

Moving ahead into October, the signal for a trough south of the Aleutians is still present.  More importantly, this is when we see the new LRC develop.  The model is seeing a general warmer look for the lower 48 with a wetter look.

 

As we look out farther towards November, we still have the trough present south of the Aleutians.  Now, what is interesting to see is a tongue of cooler temps extending all the way across the Pacific from East Asia.  This may be a signal of a very active Pacific that may begin to ignite the STJ and start pounding away at Cali.  I do like the "cold" signal for a large part of the central/southern/eastern CONUS in November.  This map is 3 months out, so don't expect it to be showing a strong signal.  What I would take in from this is that another cold/fast start to winter is on the table. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi, I'm ingyball. I have come from the storm2k forums, where I use the name theprofessor, because I didn't see many discussions for the great lakes area. I have lived in North Texas for all 18 years of my life, but I'm moving to Columbus, Ohio where I will be starting college at The Ohio State and I will be majoring in Atmospheric Science.

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Hi, I'm ingyball. I have come from the storm2k forums, where I use the name theprofessor, because I didn't see many discussions for the great lakes area. I have lived in North Texas for all 18 years of my life, but I'm moving to Columbus, Ohio where I will be starting college at The Ohio State and I will be majoring in Atmospheric Science.

Welcome aboard!

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Hi, I'm ingyball. I have come from the storm2k forums, where I use the name theprofessor, because I didn't see many discussions for the great lakes area. I have lived in North Texas for all 18 years of my life, but I'm moving to Columbus, Ohio where I will be starting college at The Ohio State and I will be majoring in Atmospheric Science.

Welcome!  This board has seen its fair share of action over the summer months.  I do expect it to  begin to be light up soon as we head closer towards October.  Glad your aboard!

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That's a very wet signal for September! Never seen anything like that. It covers such a large area. Nice to see the dry signal disappear in the West for the most part. Looking at the temperature and precipitation maps combined, it seems a Bermuda high will set up. Its circulation might steer tropical moisture at us from the Gulf, while all along the center of the high nearest to the Southeast will keep it drier than normal there.

 

Welcome Ingyball! I hope you enjoy your stay here.

Yes, Tom is right. Our board should really start lighting up in about 5-6 weeks.

 

---

 

Already 54° here. Guidance was for 55° tonight. Upper 40s possible in low lying areas tonight?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Next week looks superb around here.  Temps in the 70's, sunshine and no precip.  I mowed the lawn yesterday and the ground is getting rather hard from the lack of deep moisture.  Dry pattern continues.  

 

We broke the streak of 80's this week at ORD to 34 days I believe.  It was quite the run I'd say.

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Ground is pretty soft still up this way. Over 3.5" of rain this month so far. Low of 52° this morning was a bit brisk!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro keeps it cool and dry over the following week into next weekend in the Midwest and Lakes region.  High Pressure looks to be the dominating feature.  Def beats having the humidity around and the AC running.

Nice to hear that. DMX morning disco was saying that they didnt know if the ridge would make it into Iowa and give us one last summer blast or if it would get squashed and stay to the south and west. Sounds like Euro is keeping it south and west so far.

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