February 2014, non-sun angle affected, Arctic forecast contest

[TT-SEA]

You suck at forecasting, and your forecast was a joke, and a poor attempt at trolling.

 

Thanks again Jesse.

 

I told you precisely what I did using the GFS MOS extended forecast... and then the GFS MOS changed.

 

Glad to see you love attacking me though for no reason.    You have blown many of these forecast contests as well.   This seems so hollow and petty for you to act like this in the middle of a big event.   One that we did not even know was coming until yesterday.

[Skagit Weather]

So... Who won?

[Brennan]

So... Who won?

Who knows. The temperatures were impossible to predict, especially given that when we made the forecasts nobody had a clue that it’d snow all day thursday and friday in Western Oregon and that everything would end up south.. When the forecasts were due, most models showed Bellingham actually being in a great spot for overrunning snow. Hah, that worked out well!

 

I’m sure whoever predicted on the colder side of things for Portland did best. We underperformed up here to say the least. 

[Deweydog]

So... Who won?

 

Kevin Martin. 

[chinook]

Kevin Martin Johnny Depp

 

Fixt.

[Deweydog]

Fixt.

 

I still think he looks exactly like one of the Backstreet Boys, but it's been forever since I've seen a picture.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I still think he looks exactly like one of the Backstreet Boys, but it's been forever since I've seen a picture.  

[TT-SEA]

 

SEA

2/4: 37/25

2/5: 36/22

2/6: 34/20

2/7: 35/19

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening) 

 

 

Dog was barking... can't sleep now.   Thought doing math might help.

 

Not going to even look at PDX since nobody was expecting so much snow down there.    Obviously that changed everything.    

 

But for SEA its interesting to compare since I was also told that I was ridiculously wrong from SEA.

 

Here is what really happened:

2/4: 37-28

2/5: 31-22

2/6: 29-21

2/7: 38-23

2/8: 42-31

 

And my forecast departures:

 

2/4: 37/25    (1.5)

2/5: 36/22    +2.5

2/6: 34/20    +2.0

2/7: 35/19    (-3.5)

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening)   (5.5)

 

The average temperature at SEA for 2/4-2/8 period was 30.2 degrees.

 

The average temperature per my forecast above was 29.0 degrees.

 

The actual temperature at SEA was 1.2 degrees WARMER THAN MY FORECAST.     

 

 

I was too cold on 3 out 5 days

I was too warm on 2 out 5 days

 

And there was increasing clouds with light snow by evening on Saturday.

 

Once again my cold bias shows... I need to adjust my forecasts upward in the future.   

[Jesse]

Dog was barking... can't sleep now.   Thought doing math might help.

 

Not going to even look at PDX since nobody was expecting so much snow down there.    Obviously that changed everything.    

 

But for SEA its interesting to compare since I was also told that I was ridiculously wrong from SEA.

 

Here is what really happened:

2/4: 37-28

2/5: 31-22

2/6: 29-21

2/7: 38-23

2/8: 42-31

 

And my forecast departures:

 

2/4: 37/25    (1.5)

2/5: 36/22    +2.5

2/6: 34/20    +2.0

2/7: 35/19    (-3.5)

2/8: 38/24  (increasing clouds and light snow by evening)   (5.5)

 

The average temperature at SEA for 2/4-2/8 period was 30.2 degrees.

 

The average temperature per my forecast above was 29.0 degrees.

 

The actual temperature at SEA was 1.2 degrees WARMER THAN MY FORECAST.     

 

 

I was too cold on 3 out 5 days

I was too warm on 2 out 5 days

 

And there was increasing clouds with light snow by evening on Saturday.

 

Once again my cold bias shows... I need to adjust my forecasts upward in the future.   

 

You were still way too warm for the heart of the event. Leave it to a ridiculously warm skewing station to make you feel like a forecasting god. You would have blown a forecast for anywhere else in the western lowlands but here.

[TT-SEA]

You were still way too warm for the heart of the event. Leave it to a ridiculously warm skewing station to make you feel like a forecasting god. You would have blown a forecast for anywhere else in the western lowlands but here.

 

 

Not really... even Jim mentioned that SEA was running in the middle of the pack and he was very pleased about that.

 

For example... it was 38 degrees at my house on Friday which is the same high for SEA.     

 

I certainly can better forecast SEA anyways.   I more familiar with this area.    You mocked my forecast up here like it was so far off it was comical... and yet it was actually still too cold.    

[Jesse]

Not really... even Jim mentioned that SEA was running in the middle of the pack and he was very pleased about that.

 

For example... it was 38 degrees at my house on Friday which is the same high for SEA.     

 

I certainly can better forecast SEA anyways.   I more familiar with this area.    You mocked my forecast up here like it was so far off it was comical... and yet it was actually still too cold.    

 

Whatever. Your forecast was still way too warm overall. I don't want to waste my whole morning arguing with you though, so I'll just leave this thread now.

[TT-SEA]

Whatever. Your forecast was still way too warm overall. I don't want to waste my whole morning arguing with you though, so I'll just leave this thread now.

 

 

I forecasted SEA... you mocked it for being so warm... I ended up 1.2 degrees too cold.

 

Pure math.   Cannot argue with it at all.   Its just numbers.

[Black Hole]

Good forecast or not, please behave guys. I don't like getting up and reading this kind of crap. There will be consequences for those instigating it if it continues.

[TT-SEA]

Good forecast or not, please behave guys. I don't like getting up and reading this kind of crap. There will be consequences for those instigating it if it continues.

 

Even when I prove statistically that I was too cold for SEA... and show the math... somehow I am still at fault.    

 

Amazing. 

[Jesse]

Wow.

 

I forecasted SEA... you mocked it for being so warm... I ended up 1.2 degrees too cold.

 

Pure math.   Cannot argue with it at all.   Its just numbers.

 

And you still mock me.    Seems so petty.   You are trolling now.  

 

I mocked your whole forecast for being too warm. I don't care about SEA. I knew they would probably fry with the sensor issues they've been having.

 

You didn't show a single day below freezing for PDX. They ended up with four in a row. One was 23/19! How on earth can you call your forecast great??

[TT-SEA]

I mocked your whole forecast for being too warm. I don't care about SEA. I knew they would probably fry with the sensor issues they've been having.

 

You didn't show a single day below freezing for PDX. They ended up with four in a row. One was 23/19! How on earth can you call your forecast great??

 

 

Everyone blew the forecast for PDX.    Me included.    Quite a change in the pattern that no one saw coming last weekend.    

 

But... I also forecasted SEA.    Whether you care about it or not... we do up here.     And the sensor was not wacky.   Boeing Field ran warmer than SEA the entire event.   Jim said a few times that the sensor seems to have been fixed because SEA were running as cold as other places.

 

Still my SEA forecast was too cold.   I did a good job up here.    

 

Everyone got an 'F' on the PDX forecast.    

[Jesse]

Everyone blew the forecast for PDX.    Me included.    Quite a change in the pattern that no one saw coming last weekend.    

 

But... I also forecasted SEA.    Whether you care about it or not... we do up here.     And the sensor was not wacky.   Boeing Field ran warmer than SEA the entire event.   Jim said a few time that the sensor seems to have been fixed because they were running as cold as other places.

 

Still my SEA forecast was too cold.   I did a good job up here.    

 

I just realized you used your first forecast for comparison. Not your updated (warmer) one. 

 

Cheater.

 

And you had noting to do with that forecast. It was the GFS MOS.

[Jesse]

Also, you showed SEA with no highs above freezing. They ended up with two. Sounds like your forecast busted warm.

[TT-SEA]

I just realized you used your first forecast for comparison. Not your updated (warmer) one. 

 

Cheater.

 

And you had noting to do with that forecast. It was the GFS MOS.

 

 

I used my final forecast... not my first one.

 

Just stop.

[Jesse]

I used my final forecast... not my first one.

 

Just stop.

 

A horrible, painful joke of a forecast. That's what yours was and shall forever be remembered as.

[TT-SEA]

A horrible, painful joke of a forecast. That's what yours was and shall forever be remembered as.

 

SEA - average 30.2

 

My forecast - average 29.0

 

Nothing more to say.   I was too cold.    

[Jesse]

When I show you the math and keep it objective and you do this stuff... you show yourself to be so incredibly petty.      You could argue its July right now and still mock people who tried to prove you wrong.   You really should be a defense lawyer.   

 

Just trying to expose your BS for what it is. 

 

You claim the models had NO IDEA what would happen beyond Thursday at the time we made our forecasts. So let's just focus on Tue-Thur. Oh look, your forecast busts incredibly warm when we do that. You had SEA in the mid 30s Wed and Thu. They were actually 31 and 29 on those days.

 

For PDX you had Tuesday in the low 40s and Wednesday and Thursday in the mid-30s. In reality they were 37, 29 and 23 for those days.

 

How can you call that a great forecast? Let's just assume everything beyond Thursday is a wash since the models changed so much. Your (the GFS MOS's) forecast was NOT even a good short term forecast. It was a joke. It busted more horribly and pathetically than any forecast I've ever seen in the history of this forum.

[TT-SEA]

Just trying to expose your BS for what it is. 

 

You claim the models had NO IDEA what would happen beyond Thursday at the time we made our forecasts. So let's just focus on Tue-Thur. Oh look, your forecast busts incredibly warm when we do that. You had SEA in the mid 30s Wed and Thu. They were actually 31 and 29 on those days.

 

For PDX you had Tuesday in the low 40s and Wednesday and Thursday in the mid-30s. In reality they were 37, 29 and 23 for those days.

 

How can you call that a great forecast? Let's just assume everything beyond Thursday is a wash since the models changed so much. Your (the GFS MOS's) forecast was NOT even a good short term forecast. It was a joke. It busted more horribly and pathetically than any forecast I've ever seen in the history of this forum.

 

Everyone busted for PDX.   Everyone did horrible.   Got it.

 

SEA - average 30.2

 

My forecast - average 29.0

 

BFI was warmer than SEA.

 

Nothing more to say.   I was too cold for SEA.  

 

You can argue all you want.    I was too cold and even I can't change that!

[Jesse]

Everyone busted for PDX.   Everyone did horrible.   Got it.

 

SEA - average 30.2

 

My forecast - average 29.0

 

BFI was warmer than SEA.

 

Nothing more to say.   I was too cold for SEA.  

 

You can argue all you want.    I was too cold and even I can't change that!

 

What a joke of a forecast yours was. Stop reminding me how incredibly wrong it was

 

:lol:

[TT-SEA]

What a joke of a forecast yours was. Stop reminding me how incredibly wrong it was

 

:lol: