August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

What is downtown's record for 90+ days btw? I've been meaning to ask.

 

24 in 1967. Their temp data from 2009 is really sketchy but they may have tied it that year if not for that.

[Jesse]

All you have to do is look up. Proof in the form of high heights and pleasantology.

 

Good news for you is this is my last year of coaching.

 

[Jesse]

24 in 1967. Their temp data from 2009 is really sketchy but they may have tied it that year if not for that.

 

Are they on pace to break it this year? (I have no clue how to access real-time data for downtown).

[BLI snowman]

Are they on pace to break it this year? (I have no clue how to access real-time data for downtown).

 

You can look it up under NowData at the NWS website

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pqr

 

A cursory glance at their obs so far this year shows them trending cooler than PDX most of the time, so they don't seem on pace to break the annual record. That seems contrary to the historical trend in Portland, where downtown is often warmer during summer days. 

 

EDIT: I think I counted 16 of them through yesterday. Way behind PDX, a lot more 88-89 degree days downtown.

[Jesse]

You can look it up under NowData at the NWS website

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pqr

 

A cursory glance at their obs so far this year shows them trending cooler than PDX most of the time, so they don't seem on pace to break the annual record. That seems contrary to the historical trend in Portland, where downtown is often warmer during summer days. 

 

EDIT: I think I counted 16 of them through yesterday. Way behind PDX, a lot more 88-89 degree days downtown.

 

Ouch. It will be a tough road to 30 for them.

[Jesse]

12Z EURO ensembles heavily lean toward a GFS/Canadian-esque solution with troughing centered directly over us much of next week.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EURO ensembles heavily lean toward a GFS/Canadian-esque solution with troughing centered directly over us much of next week.

 

 

Going to end up warm and humid if you are not careful!    576DM SW flow tends to be humid in August.  

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!168!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2015081812!!chart.gif

[Deweydog]

Crazy . 77/55 until mid November kind of stuff.

[Jesse]

That NOW data is pretty cool. I didn't realize you could look at monthly stats from places like Marion Forks and Vernonia.

[James Jones]

You can look it up under NowData at the NWS website

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pqr

 

A cursory glance at their obs so far this year shows them trending cooler than PDX most of the time, so they don't seem on pace to break the annual record. That seems contrary to the historical trend in Portland, where downtown is often warmer during summer days. 

 

EDIT: I think I counted 16 of them through yesterday. Way behind PDX, a lot more 88-89 degree days downtown.

I suspect the pre-1973 downtown location was in a better spot for warmth (at least on sunny days during the warm season) than the current KGW location. The only June-September month so far this decade that had a warmer average high downtown was June 2010; every other month was warmer at PDX, often by a couple degrees. July 2013 is a good example of this - it averaged 82.4/57.6 at PDX, but somehow was only 80.6/56.5 downtown, which is oddly cool considering it was a fairly warm month for the region overall. And FWIW, the Portland NWSFO was at 24 days of 90+ through August 11th.

[Jesse]

25!

[Deweydog]

25!

 

[Deweydog]

18z says green light to overseeding the lawn next week!

[Front Ranger]

I suspect the pre-1973 downtown location was in a better spot for warmth (at least on sunny days during the warm season) than the current KGW location. The only June-September month so far this decade that had a warmer average high downtown was June 2010; every other month was warmer at PDX, often by a couple degrees. July 2013 is a good example of this - it averaged 82.4/57.6 at PDX, but somehow was only 80.6/56.5 downtown, which is oddly cool considering it was a fairly warm month for the region overall. And FWIW, the Portland NWSFO was at 24 days of 90+ through August 11th.

It's very possible that the current downtown data skews a little cooler than the older data, due to placement. But at least current records can be measured against 1973-current with little bias likely.

 

Of course, PDX also skews warmer now than it used to, due to changes around/at the airport. Which makes it doubly difficult to fairly compare the historical downtown and PDX stats.

 

This is why I like stations like OLM.

[Front Ranger]

OLM fell well short of tying their 90+ record today, topping out at 85.

[FroYoBro]

OLM fell well short of tying their 90+ record today, topping out at 85.

I hate cool summers. 

[luminen]

 Still 73F here at 10PM. 

[TT-SEA]

18z says green light to overseeding the lawn next week!

00z ECMWF says that you best not do that... dry for the next 10 days and probably more.

[Jesse]

The east side is looking ridiculously smoky this morning.

 

[Deweydog]

...and some googling shows that yes, haze will impact crop yields. The fires have been pretty prevalent during most of the growing season, so I would be curious if any NW staple crops are going to be seriously impacted, like apples. Cereals were most likely stunted as well as corn, but I'm pulling that out of my a**.

 

http://www.pnas.org/content/96/24/13626.full.pdf

You're pulling corn out of your a**?

[Jesse]

This morning's Portland NWS discussion is bullish about hitting 90 both Saturday and Sunday now.

 

That would put us at 28, and definitely on pace for a record warm August down here if the troughing to follow is as weak as advertised on the 00z Euro. Fortunately the Euro ensembles looked deeper.

[Deweydog]

600+dm south of the Aleutians.

 

#winterpreview

[Jesse]

600+dm south of the Aleutians.

 

#winterpreview

 

That can't happen though!

 

12Z GFS is pretty. Even a fall baller such as yourself has to love seeing that deep, full latitude troughing over us by the middle of next week.

[Deweydog]

That can't happen though!

It won't.

[Jesse]

It won't.

 

Maybe we won't see an offshore ridge of that magnitude, but I am becoming increasingly convinced that we are in for some sort of troughy period next week.

[Deweydog]

That can't happen though!

 

12Z GFS is pretty. Even a fall baller such as yourself has to love seeing that deep, full latitude troughing over us by the middle of next week.

Somebody caught edit button fever, perhaps during a recent trip to the front range of Colorado?

 

Fall ball doesn't start until after Labor Day. It can rain like a mofo after this weekend until then if it wants to.

[Deweydog]

Maybe we won't see an offshore ridge of that magnitude, but I am becoming increasingly convinced that we are in for some sort of troughy period next week.

Indeed. Cleanse the pallet for a progressive shift east. We all know how the last strong -PNA signal in the long range turned out...

[TT-SEA]

Hmmmm...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/the-2015-fall-outlook-for-canada/51788301

[Jesse]

Indeed. Cleanse the pallet for a progressive shift east. We all know how the last strong -PNA signal in the long range turned out...

 

So we are just trolling now?

 

It would be nice if there were a forum where I wasn't just one of a couple people who would like to see the return of cool weather.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian at 168 hours...  this is going to end in disappointment for someone.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

So we are just trolling now?

 

It would be nice if there were a forum where I wasn't just one of a couple people who would like to see the return of cool weather.

Oh ... I always miss the switch to serious/martyr Jesse mode. I need to check the GLAAM more often apparently.

 

Lots of moving parts coming up, amplification and tropical infusion and such. I wouldn't be too trustworthy of anything. Just keep checking those models!

[Jesse]

Oh s**t... I always miss the switch to serious/martyr Jesse mode. I need to check the GLAAM more often apparently.

 

Lots of moving parts coming up, amplification and tropical infusion and such. I wouldn't be too trustworthy of anything. Just keep checking those models!

 

I must miss the switch for you too. Here I think we are having a serious conversation about the models then you suddenly throw something in there with the sole intent of getting under my skin.

 

Just makes it hard to know if you are talking about what you really think will happen or what you think you can say that will get a negative response from me.

[Deweydog]

I must miss the switch for you too. Here I think we are having a serious conversation about the models then you suddenly throw something in there with the sole intent of getting under my skin.

What do you want to hear?

 

Time will tell! History and knowledge mean nothing!

[Jesse]

What do you want to hear?

 

Time will tell! History and knowledge mean nothing!

 

Ok then, if you already know how everything is going to play out the next few weeks why not just enlighten us now?

 

Or are you going to wait until after the fact and act like it was always really obvious when it turns out a certain way?

[Deweydog]

Ok then, if you already know how everything is going to play out the next few weeks why not just enlighten us now?

 

Or are you going to wait until after the fact and act like it was always really obvious when it turns out a certain way?

You need a break.

[Jesse]

You need a break.

 

I will be doing no such thing.

 

Flatiron may be wrong often, but you do tend to Monday morning quarterback from time to time.

[Deweydog]

I will be doing no such thing.

 

Flatiron may be wrong often, but you do tend to Monday morning quarterback from time to time.

Only on Mondays.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles look almost identical to the optional through days 7-10.

[Jesse]

I am liking how the air has been dry enough lately so we can actually start seeing the effects of the longer nights. PDX hit 62 this morning, which is a bit lower than forecast (Mark had us only getting into the 66-68 range for a low) and The Dalles has been in the 50s every morning, despite the warm airmass overall. A sure sign of subtle, seasonal change.

[Black Hole]

So we are just trolling now?

 

It would be nice if there were a forum where I wasn't just one of a couple people who would like to see the return of cool weather.

I'd like cool weather to return! I enjoyed the 31f low at 10500 feet in the mountains yesterday