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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


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I usually don't start a thread this early but this year will be different.  In many ways, this month is going to be an impactful one for much of our Nation.  I'm inclined to believe there will be several bouts of Severe Wx accompanied by the battle with Ol' Man Winter.  What is Nov '21 going to be remembered for?  Is Winter coming out of the gates early??  What will the holiday season look like?  This is the time of year when I personally start to enjoy tracking autumn/winter storms as our Sub comes together and members become more active.  I'm excited about what I see coming down the road for this month.  

 

Alright, alright, alright...I've done enough digging/studying and deeply focusing on some intriguing data that continues to support the long standing idea for a big reversal heading into November.  All systems are ready to "GO" as we open up the door to Novembrrrrr....that's right, it's looking very likely that just as we open up the month, in a timely fashion, our seasons first big shot of early season cold is on the way.  Ya'll know how I enjoy seeing the wx line up to specific calendar dates.  Right on Cue, the entire North American 500mb flips a switch from Ridging across central/eastern Canada to what I foresee will be the next Long Term Long Wave trough of the developing LRC....Hudson Bay Vortex....

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Well, this certainly flipped pretty quick...last 6 runs off the GEFS...opening week of November is going to FEEL cold after such a warm Oct.  As the fastest cooling month of the year opens up, temps also appear to follow suit and take a dive... 

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0z EPS...

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What about storms???  Oh boy, there are plenty on my calendar in what will be a series of systems coming out of the SW...aka "SW FLOW" where this years LRC's golden hot spot has set up.  Using the BSR as guidance, there is data to support the idea that during the week of the 7th, I'm seeing back-to-back southern stream systems coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region.  "Cutter Week Special" Round #2???  Just like in early Oct, in similar fashion, either this is another harmonic beat of the LRC or maybe a secondary active part of the entire cycle.  Nevertheless, the pattern setting up is eye candy and one that will keep us ALL busy tracking storm systems. 

Storm Target Dates during Week 2 of Nov: 11/7-11/9, 11/11-11/13 (Veteran's Day Winter Storm?).  Doesn't it always seem like we are tracking some sort of system around Veteran's Day...iirc, someone's B Day is around that day also @james1976???  Anyway, we will prob seeing a winter component during this period.  Winter is likely to show itself in an abrupt fashion Week 2 of November.

No joke, but it's like everything is lining up right as we enter November...I mean, you couldn't script this any other way....look at ALL the teleconnections from a variety of models...that is quite rare to see practically all of them flip in sync.  I'm amazed at what I see happening.  

 

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Lastly, #ThinkSnow...I'm predicting that a number of places across the central CONUS have a good shot at breaking records.  It ain't just a mere fantasy, but a legit prediction that the overall pattern for this month will deliver bountiful chances of Snow.  No doubt about it.  The Euro Weeklies from Thursday illustrate a solid idea of whats coming down the road.  This is just before the beginning of the holiday season...once we get towards the middle/end of Nov, I think we'll see the cold press farther south and east.  I know this has been a long post but I had a lot on my mind....who's ready for tracking????  

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I usually don't start a thread this early but this year will be different.  In many ways, this month is going to be an impactful one for much of our Nation.  I'm inclined to believe there will be several bouts of Severe Wx accompanied by the battle with Ol' Man Winter.  What is Nov '21 going to be remembered for?  Is Winter coming out of the gates early??  What will the holiday season look like?  This is the time of year when I personally enjoy start tracking autumn/winter storms as our Sub comes together and members become more active.  I'm excited about what I see coming down the road for this month.  

 

Alright, alright, alright...I've done enough digging/studying and deeply focusing on some intriguing data that continues to support the long standing idea for a big reversal heading into November.  All systems are ready to "GO" as we open up the door to Novembrrrrr....that's right, it's looking very likely that just as we open up the month, in a timely fashion, our seasons first big shot of early season cold is on the way.  Ya'll know how I enjoy seeing the wx line up to specific calendar dates.  Right on Cue, the entire North American 500mb flips a switch from Ridging across central/eastern Canada to what I foresee will be the next Long Term Long Wave trough of the developing LRC....Hudson Bay Vortex....

image.png 

2.png7

Well, this certainly flipped pretty quick...last 6 runs off the GEFS...opening week of November is going to FEEL cold after such a warm Oct.  As the fastest cooling month of the year opens up, temps also appear to follow suit and take a dive... 

1.gif

 

0z EPS...

7.png

 

 

What about storms???  Oh boy, there are plenty on my calendar in what will be a series of systems coming out of the SW...aka "SW FLOW" where this years LRC's golden hot spot has set up.  Using the BSR as guidance, there is data to support the idea that during the week of the 7th, I'm seeing back-to-back southern stream systems coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region.  "Cutter Week Special" Round #2???  Just like in early Oct, in similar fashion, either this is another harmonic beat of the LRC or maybe a secondary active part of the entire cycle.  Nevertheless, the pattern setting up is eye candy and one that will keep us ALL busy tracking storm systems. 

Storm Target Dates during Week 2 of Nov: 11/7-11/9, 11/11-11/13 (Veteran's Day Winter Storm?).  Doesn't it always seem like we are tracking some sort of system around Veteran's Day...iirc, someone's B Day is around that day also @james1976???  Anyway, we will prob seeing a winter component during this period.  Winter is likely to show itself in an abrupt fashion Week 2 of November.

No joke, but it's like everything is lining up right as we enter November...I mean, you couldn't script this any other way....look at ALL the teleconnections from a variety of models...that is quite rare to see practically all of them flip in sync.  I'm amazed at what I see happening.  

 

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Lastly, #ThinkSnow...I'm predicting that a number of places across the central CONUS have a good shot at breaking records.  It ain't just a mere fantasy, but a legit prediction that the overall pattern for this month will deliver bountiful chances of Snow.  No doubt about it.  The Euro Weeklies from Thursday illustrate a solid idea of whats coming down the road.  This is just before the beginning of the holiday season...once we get towards the middle/end of Nov, I think we'll see the cold press farther south and east.  I know this has been a long post but I had a lot on my mind....who's ready for tracking????  

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It's great to see the teleconnections all start working in our favor and so me colder air looks to be on the way.  Looks like many who haven't had a freeze yet certainly will by the 3rd including the first freeze for mby.

gfs_T2m_ncus_47.png

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

What about storms???  Oh boy, there are plenty on my calendar in what will be a series of systems coming out of the SW...aka "SW FLOW" where this years LRC's golden hot spot has set up.  Using the BSR as guidance, there is data to support the idea that during the week of the 7th, I'm seeing back-to-back southern stream systems coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region.  "Cutter Week Special" Round #2???  Just like in early Oct, in similar fashion, either this is another harmonic beat of the LRC or maybe a secondary active part of the entire cycle.  Nevertheless, the pattern setting up is eye candy and one that will keep us ALL busy tracking storm systems. 

It has been a while since we have had a big time November storm. So I guess one could say we are overdue. Also while history doesn't suggest that it would happen (as past warm Octobers have not lead to heavy winter snow falls) could the warmer than average great lakes lead to heavy lake effect snows in November or December? well as always we shall see. 

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13 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's great to see the teleconnections all start working in our favor and so me colder air looks to be on the way.  Looks like many who haven't had a freeze yet certainly will by the 3rd including the first freeze for mby.

gfs_T2m_ncus_47.png

 

Yes get these allergies out of here! They have been ridiculous these last few weeks!

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14 hours ago, westMJim said:

It has been a while since we have had a big time November storm. So I guess one could say we are overdue. Also while history doesn't suggest that it would happen (as past warm Octobers have not lead to heavy winter snow falls) could the warmer than average great lakes lead to heavy lake effect snows in November or December? well as always we shall see. 

I'm curious what examples you were thinking of for that comment. LES outbreaks like 2014 that benefited GR and west? Or were you thinking further back for SMI?

Here's some recent ones:

(4.5" mby) 2018:

1158866622_20181125WPCd14snow.gif.10841e6ab5b4070d0474c55364156019.gif

(7.0" mby) 2019 Vet's Day:

961325020_2019111112GRRStormSummary-1.GIF.5d4543b9d554fe7807791104cf437903.GIF

(12.5" mby) 2015:

753276518_20151120NWSNatlCWAHeadlinesmap.PNG.6141dce5cdcce82a0c7fa55665ed51be.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Knock, knock...who's there???  The return of Ol' Man Winter...the coolest flip I've seen, but esp bc it happens on Nov 1st...what a pattern to open up the start of Novembrrr...1st snows are looking likely, esp near the GL's as LES are poised to fire up inland... @Madtown should see it first, on Nov 1st, or thereabouts.

Widespread freezes are again looking likely for many...

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0z EPS...warm Arctic unloads the chill into the lower 48...things are coming together as I've opined to close out Oct and open Nov.  Just so you know, to those who say I only post on "cold" wx patterns, or snow, or what ever you say, I'm still anticipating a warmer period sometime in early Dec (reloading period).  We gotta get through mid/late Nov before I start talking about that idea.  Meantime, a colder pattern is apparently looking very likely...

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#ThinkSnow..Dang, the model must be "seeing" a nasty shot of cold down south to have ensemble members showing a potential for snow flakes into W TX...

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What has been an ongoing 2+ week Strat warming event over the N Pole, that has displaced the PV, the models are predicting a new pattern to re-emerge as the PV is expected to elongate and possibly create a Cross Polar Flow regime over North America. #WinterisComing

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm curious what examples you were thinking of for that comment. LES outbreaks like 2014 that benefited GR and west? Or were you thinking further back for SMI?

You know I wasn't even thinking of lake effect snow falls when I wrote the "big storms" part I was thinking more in like of big time November area wide wind storms such as.

The November 9-10, 1975 storm caused the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior. The November 9-11, 1998 storm is discussed since it occurred on the same days in November, followed nearly the same track, and was more intense than the ‘75 storm. The storm of October 26-27 of 2010 is included as it set records for the lowest pressure over portions of the Upper Great Lakes region. 

Now for the part of warm Octobers leading to high seasonal snow fall that part that has been at best hit and miss for GRR.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

You know I wasn't even thinking of lake effect snow falls when I wrote the "big storms" part I was thinking more in like of big time November area wide wind storms such as.

The November 9-10, 1975 storm caused the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior. The November 9-11, 1998 storm is discussed since it occurred on the same days in November, followed nearly the same track, and was more intense than the ‘75 storm. The storm of October 26-27 of 2010 is included as it set records for the lowest pressure over portions of the Upper Great Lakes region. 

Now for the part of warm Octobers leading to high seasonal snow fall that part that has been at best hit and miss for GRR.

Ahh, ok. When I read the big storms part after possible snowstorm was mentioned in other posts, my mind wanted to connect those dots.

As you say, we haven't had anything on that historic level in quite a while. Adding to your list of memorable autumn cyclones is my personal favorite that combined the windstorm and snowstorm, the "deer hunter's bliz" of 11/16/89.

In more recent windstorms, two come to mind. 11-17-13 (no graphics), and we got a decent windstorm around the Thanksgiving holiday 2 yrs ago:

1276132302_20191127USHazardsmap.JPG.7fede372191cbb0c6e0596d578aedb28.JPG1044705297_2019112612zHRRR10mGusts.JPG.c91a38be64e8dc999702a949b7c58e23.JPG

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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A new month will bring forth an entirely different North American 500mb pattern.  Pop goes the western ridge, nature shall unleash the "Fridge"...right on cue, Nov 1st opens up with a good chance of an early season Arctic Chill down the Plains and then bleed east into the GL's.  First snows are increasing in likelihood over the GL's region, but maybe also near @CentralNebWeather...

0z Euro...

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0z EPS starting to sniff out the system on my calendar around the 7th (could be a day or so earlier)...energy coming out of the SW and tracking into the S Plains should have some winter implications for the central Sub.  Snow chances on the rise for a lot of members on here.  Quite the pattern setting up for the first part of November.  Quick note, models will come in an hour early on the 7th (2:00am local time)...we may be tracking a wintry system during this time period.  Perfect timing, ay??

 

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"Heartland Chill"....Brrr, I just got the chills looking at the new data...opening week of the month a stark difference to what we've been used to last month...

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On 10/24/2021 at 12:24 AM, jaster220 said:

I'm curious what examples you were thinking of for that comment. LES outbreaks like 2014 that benefited GR and west? Or were you thinking further back for SMI?

Here's some recent ones:

(4.5" mby) 2018:

1158866622_20181125WPCd14snow.gif.10841e6ab5b4070d0474c55364156019.gif

(7.0" mby) 2019 Vet's Day:

961325020_2019111112GRRStormSummary-1.GIF.5d4543b9d554fe7807791104cf437903.GIF

(12.5" mby) 2015:

753276518_20151120NWSNatlCWAHeadlinesmap.PNG.6141dce5cdcce82a0c7fa55665ed51be.PNG

Ahhhh...that beautiful blue color covering our area and then, follows the "Pink" , when action is about to start. Gotta tell ya though, its a stab in the back when yby has that "Blue" color and then its followed by the "Purple" one (WWA), instead of the "Pink" (WSW). 🤨😆

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Looks like nothing for SMI the next few weeks.  A couple  cut off lows producing some BN temps south of here and providing some rain.   One normal this time of year cool shot after Halloween.    Then warmer again.  Looks warmer than normal well  north of border.  Not sure what all the excitement is about.  

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like nothing for SMI the next few weeks.  A couple  cut off lows producing some BN temps south of here and providing some rain.   One normal this time of year cool shot after Halloween.    Then warmer again.  Looks warmer than normal well  north of border.  Not sure what all the excitement is about.  

Good. Too early for #realwinter

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The 8-14 day from last week that was normal to above normal has now switched in the 6-10 day to the following.  No wonder the Heidke skill scores are so bad - it's more flip flopping than a politician.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

The 8-14 day from last week that was normal to above normal has now switched in the 6-10 day to the following.  No wonder the Heidke skill scores are so bad - it's more flip flopping than a politician.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

Too much reliance on models and not enough forecasting.  They look lazy.

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40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Too much reliance on models and not enough forecasting.  They look lazy.

These are the folks cancelling winter, too, so keep that in mind. Lol.

Anyone wanting some forecasting experience, November will be the gauntlet down here and up by you. Going to get wild.

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4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like nothing for SMI the next few weeks.  A couple  cut off lows producing some BN temps south of here and providing some rain.   One normal this time of year cool shot after Halloween.    Then warmer again.  Looks warmer than normal well  north of border.  Not sure what all the excitement is about.  

All about displacement, storms, blocking and speed. Polar sourced air is still polar air.

Right now the polar air is dumping out over the Aleutians, but it won't last that way. Just waiting on an inevitable logjam out east.

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

A new month will bring forth an entirely different North American 500mb pattern.  Pop goes the western ridge, nature shall unleash the "Fridge"...right on cue, Nov 1st opens up with a good chance of an early season Arctic Chill down the Plains and then bleed east into the GL's.  First snows are increasing in likelihood over the GL's region, but maybe also near @CentralNebWeather...

0z Euro...

1.gif

Novembrrrrr! 😁

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23 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

These are the folks cancelling winter, too, so keep that in mind. Lol.

Anyone wanting some forecasting experience, November will be the gauntlet down here and up by you. Going to get wild.

Big storm coming this week has us in its sights.

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So, @JudahCohen is mirrorin' what I commented on the other day wrt the Polar Vortex..

Quote

In my opinion the likelihood of a stretched #polarvortex event, as suggested by recent GFS forecasts, that begins with colder temperatures in Central/East Asia and eventually in Canada & US east of the Rockies is growing. Will discuss more in today's blog.

 

In other words, we will reverse course and replace what has been a dominant Hudson Bay/Eastern Canada Ridge with a Hudson Bay Vortex....Hello Novembrrrr....

Current 500mb pattern...

image.png

 

We welcome in November with an entirely different N.A. pattern....except for the ridging just W & S of Greenland...that's a big deal IMO...

image.png

 

Say what?? 0z GFS suggesting a "front rider" to cut up towards the Lakes region as we open up the month...hmmmimage.png

 

 

On the other hand, we got Oooo Canada...mercy!

image.png

 

 

Lastly, we have the 0z EPS seeing the snow potential across the Foothills and the high Plains of NE/KS...I also want to focus on the snow growth where it REALLY means something at this time of year and that is north of the border.  The massive expansion of the snow cover across southern & eastern Canada is my focus during the month of November.  If you "Build the Glacier" up there, it will pay dividends down the road.  That's my 2 cents.  What happens down here in the mid lats next month is just for fun and ironing down the LRC.  Once it is showtime...around the start of the holiday season (at least for me)...is when the Snow can stick around, however, I have my doubts that the cold will last after Thanksgiving.  I still believe the LRC will recycle around that period and we could be entering a warmer period into early Dec.  How long that lasts and who gets the brunt of the warmth is TBD.  There are some signals near the Aleutians it'll be farther W/NW across the Sub that the ridge will try to poke in from the west later in the month.

1.png

 

 

 

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Yesterday's Euro Weeklies are locked on the idea of an eastern CONUS trough for most of the month, except for the tail end where the idea of a ridge to pop in from the west.  In other words, it may be that period where the pattern relaxes for a little while for some of the members on here.  To early to say what region.

 

1.gif

 

Curious about Thanksgiving week???  #ThinkSnow...impressive snow signal for the northern half of Sub...

1.png

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

So, @JudahCohen is mirrorin' what I commented on the other day wrt the Polar Vortex..

 

In other words, we will reverse course and replace what has been a dominant Hudson Bay/Eastern Canada Ridge with a Hudson Bay Vortex....Hello Novembrrrr....

Current 500mb pattern...

image.png

 

We welcome in November with an entirely different N.A. pattern....except for the ridging just W & S of Greenland...that's a big deal IMO...

image.png

 

Say what?? 0z GFS suggesting a "front rider" to cut up towards the Lakes region as we open up the month...hmmmimage.png

 

 

On the other hand, we got Oooo Canada...mercy!

image.png 

 

 

Lastly, we have the 0z EPS seeing the snow potential across the Foothills and the high Plains of NE/KS...I also want to focus on the snow growth where it REALLY means something at this time of year and that is north of the border.  The massive expansion of the snow cover across southern & eastern Canada is my focus during the month of November.  If you "Build the Glacier" up there, it will pay dividends down the road.  That's my 2 cents.  What happens down here in the mid lats next month is just for fun and ironing down the LRC.  Once it is showtime...around the start of the holiday season (at least for me)...is when the Snow can stick around, however, I have my doubts that the cold will last after Thanksgiving.  I still believe the LRC will recycle around that period and we could be entering a warmer period into early Dec.  How long that lasts and who gets the brunt of the warmth is TBD.  There are some signals near the Aleutians it'll be farther W/NW across the Sub that the ridge will try to poke in from the west later in the month.

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Looking ahead with you and using an average cycle length of 49 days (shorter cycle in La Nina years) would set my area up for some warmth the week leading up to Thanksgiving.  If I'm close on that I believe right after Thanksgiving it's showtime!  4 corners low will clue us in.

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looking ahead with you and using an average cycle length of 49 days (shorter cycle in La Nina years) would set my area up for some warmth the week leading up to Thanksgiving.  If I'm close on that I believe right after Thanksgiving it's showtime!  4 corners low will clue us in.

I’m waiting towards Nov 15th ish to see where we are in terms of the cycle length.  That’ll give me a good idea of what the models are showing for the future and where we have been.  That’s another reason why this month is extra special as it solidifies the LRC’s length.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

So, @JudahCohen is mirrorin' what I commented on the other day wrt the Polar Vortex..

 

In other words, we will reverse course and replace what has been a dominant Hudson Bay/Eastern Canada Ridge with a Hudson Bay Vortex....Hello Novembrrrr....

Current 500mb pattern...

image.png

 

We welcome in November with an entirely different N.A. pattern....except for the ridging just W & S of Greenland...that's a big deal IMO...

image.png

 

Say what?? 0z GFS suggesting a "front rider" to cut up towards the Lakes region as we open up the month...hmmmimage.png

 

 

On the other hand, we got Oooo Canada...mercy!

image.png 

 

 

Lastly, we have the 0z EPS seeing the snow potential across the Foothills and the high Plains of NE/KS...I also want to focus on the snow growth where it REALLY means something at this time of year and that is north of the border.  The massive expansion of the snow cover across southern & eastern Canada is my focus during the month of November.  If you "Build the Glacier" up there, it will pay dividends down the road.  That's my 2 cents.  What happens down here in the mid lats next month is just for fun and ironing down the LRC.  Once it is showtime...around the start of the holiday season (at least for me)...is when the Snow can stick around, however, I have my doubts that the cold will last after Thanksgiving.  I still believe the LRC will recycle around that period and we could be entering a warmer period into early Dec.  How long that lasts and who gets the brunt of the warmth is TBD.  There are some signals near the Aleutians it'll be farther W/NW across the Sub that the ridge will try to poke in from the west later in the month.

1.png

 

 

 

What's funny about this is that the GFS still doesn't have KC getting below freezing throughout the entire run.  

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9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Oh, I know.  That's why the GFS is funny.  

Edit:  I just looked back.  It actually had us at 83 degrees for today.  Ha.  

The models just don't seem to be able to see the cooler air until it's right on top of us.  Hope that gets better as the season goes on.

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16 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

These are the folks cancelling winter, too, so keep that in mind. Lol.

Anyone wanting some forecasting experience, November will be the gauntlet down here and up by you. Going to get wild.

I do believe you were trying to cancel summer considering this post from July from you😉....

The PAC temp profile sitting as it is, is the textbook for how to load a massive shift down the road. All the players on that side locked in, now it's the Atlantic's turn. Stage and setup the blocking over the NE and presto. Should also see the gulf sst profile spike in the coming weeks. 

This is truly one of the most beautiful hemispheric climate patterns I've seen in my life in terms of loving autumn and winter.

Too much good here. Hard to hold my composure but I'd get ready for winter. Summers over for the eastern and Southern parts of the sub and will be for the northern part in 3 weeks.

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@Tom

GEFS November 500mb map with the HB vortex looks sexy like 13-14. Would prefer it to align like that in Dec, not Nov (lake Mich shadow evident in that GFS map) but it is what it is and let's see where it leads. As I posted, we can and do get some decent Nov snowstorms so it's not like the odds are "zero" on that working out this time around.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Certainly the Northern Sub will get hit with something in November with these powerhouse storms hitting the NW coast of the United States.  However, that will certainly keep the anomalous cold at bay for the Eastern 1/3 of the country.   Lot's of up and downs.  Hopefully the pattern stays active through the end of November and into December when we get more consistent cold.    Blocking just isn't strong enough.  Looking like your average typical November temp wise.  Hoping to see a major storm like NOV 1998 (that one sticks out for some reason to me, believe it was really windy).  

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Clinton/someweatherdud

The GFS really had the right idea on the overall pattern as 80's were quite expansive in KS Saturday and Sunday,  I had a high of 78 on Sunday. It just had the warmth off by a few days. Yes, it did show 83 for today, we will likely be 20 short of that. But, the idea of a warm surge out in front of the next storm is still there, just not as aggressive as the GFS showed 5 days ago. 

With that idea, the last storm had a huge warm surge, so when Gary states in his blog that when this cycles in Dec. it could be a huge snow storm. True, but not in KC as the low was NW of us and we had a huge warm-up out in front of it. IF the pattern is cycling, wouldn't the same pattern produce a warm surge. Yes, I get idea of more blocking could force the storm south and typically storms will truck farther south in the winter, but, there is no way of saying if the storm over this past weekend does indeed cycle, that it will be rain or snow in KC. 

Now, we have a beautiful loaded pattern here in the nation's midsection, I have had 5.2 inches of rain in my part of KC since the new LRC set-up, and we are about to add 1-3 inches to that total here in the next few days. Lets hope this continues throughout the winter. The question will be, can we get cold to lock into place?? So far, the LRC has been well above average on temps, plenty of warm surges out in front of these wet storms, and this next storm also has a warm surge out in front of it. 

 

Oh....that storm for Monday night football looks interesting. Could we see snow by Tuesday morning?? ITS CLOSE!

It's official, the CHIEFS STINK

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton/someweatherdud

The GFS really had the right idea on the overall pattern as 80's were quite expansive in KS Saturday and Sunday,  I had a high of 78 on Sunday. It just had the warmth off by a few days. Yes, it did show 83 for today, we will likely be 20 short of that. But, the idea of a warm surge out in front of the next storm is still there, just not as aggressive as the GFS showed 5 days ago. 

With that idea, the last storm had a huge warm surge, so when Gary states in his blog that when this cycles in Dec. it could be a huge snow storm. True, but not in KC as the low was NW of us and we had a huge warm-up out in front of it. IF the pattern is cycling, wouldn't the same pattern produce a warm surge. Yes, I get idea of more blocking could force the storm south and typically storms will truck farther south in the winter, but, there is no way of saying if the storm over this past weekend does indeed cycle, that it will be rain or snow in KC. 

Now, we have a beautiful loaded pattern here in the nation's midsection, I have had 5.2 inches of rain in my part of KC since the new LRC set-up, and we are about to add 1-3 inches to that total here in the next few days. Lets hope this continues throughout the winter. The question will be, can we get cold to lock into place?? So far, the LRC has been well above average on temps, plenty of warm surges out in front of these wet storms, and this next storm also has a warm surge out in front of it. 

 

Oh....that storm for Monday night football looks interesting. Could we see snow by Tuesday morning?? ITS CLOSE!

It's official, the CHIEFS STINK

I went over all of this with you just a few weeks ago and Tom did multiple times last year.  The Chiefs are a mess I hope they can fix it.

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2 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton/someweatherdud

The GFS really had the right idea on the overall pattern as 80's were quite expansive in KS Saturday and Sunday,  I had a high of 78 on Sunday. It just had the warmth off by a few days. Yes, it did show 83 for today, we will likely be 20 short of that. But, the idea of a warm surge out in front of the next storm is still there, just not as aggressive as the GFS showed 5 days ago. 

With that idea, the last storm had a huge warm surge, so when Gary states in his blog that when this cycles in Dec. it could be a huge snow storm. True, but not in KC as the low was NW of us and we had a huge warm-up out in front of it. IF the pattern is cycling, wouldn't the same pattern produce a warm surge. Yes, I get idea of more blocking could force the storm south and typically storms will truck farther south in the winter, but, there is no way of saying if the storm over this past weekend does indeed cycle, that it will be rain or snow in KC. 

Now, we have a beautiful loaded pattern here in the nation's midsection, I have had 5.2 inches of rain in my part of KC since the new LRC set-up, and we are about to add 1-3 inches to that total here in the next few days. Lets hope this continues throughout the winter. The question will be, can we get cold to lock into place?? So far, the LRC has been well above average on temps, plenty of warm surges out in front of these wet storms, and this next storm also has a warm surge out in front of it. 

 

Oh....that storm for Monday night football looks interesting. Could we see snow by Tuesday morning?? ITS CLOSE!

It's official, the CHIEFS STINK

With any storm coming out of the southwest, KC almost always is on the R/S line or close to it, except for those occasions where the storm cuts hard northeast before it gets here.  As much as I like the idea of the LRC, there are still too many variables to be able to predict exactly what will happen at the surface in a given location.  Hopefully we'll get enough cold temps this year to mix in with all this moisture.  But I'm certainly not counting on it.  

I love the Chiefs but haven't been watching the games.  Too frustrating and disappointing.  

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I went over all of this with you just a few weeks ago and Tom did multiple times last year.  The Chiefs are a mess I hope they can fix it.

Yes you did and I thank you for that. My problem with many of Gary's claims, is that there are so many ways out of a forecast using the LRC. 

For example, "

I'm predicting a storm on Dec. 20th-22nd. Its the storm that came through in the first cycle and it was a wet storm for KC. (the GFS is showing that storm for next week and we have had it on the LRC calender's for awhile now.) We arrive to Dec. 20th, the storm goes north of KC and we get very little. The LRC will claim there was not enough blocking, there was not enough cold air, whatever, that's why the storm missed us, but the storm is still there. Now, if it hit us head on, the LRC knew this. You know the song and dance with him. I agree, the storm cycled. My argument, you can not tell me  what the storms will be like in the second cycle or the third cycle or the 4th cycle. That cannot be done for a precise location. I argue this because he claims he can. Sure, he'll hit a few right on the nose. 

Let's go back to his forecast for the month of Sept. using the LRC. He sent me a text showing me what Brett Veech received from him for the second Sunday in Sept. He said he sent him a text from weeks ago showing Sept 12th was going to be hot for game, high of 90. He was right! He's says they need to start using the LRC.  Bragged about it! All good, I like confident people...However, two weeks later he called for 70 degrees for the game, it was 93!!!(that's the game Andy Reid got sick, maybe heat related??) He called for a very wet and cool 10 day stretch  end to Sept. and we ended hot and dry, total opposite. So, if the LRC knew about the 90 on Sept. 12th and it was because of the LRC forecast and the LRC forecast only, how did he miss so many other details in that Sept. forecast. My point, we only talk about what hits, never discuss the total misses. If the hits are because of a cycling pattern, how could there be misses??? He gets very defensive....he's a lot of fun!!!!! 

Overall, the LRC works in many ways, I think he has done some amazing forecasting, but, there is so much that is so unpredictable and too many ways to get out of why a forecast from the LRC did not work out. 

I have argued with Gary for years, 13 to be exact. We are friends, we talk by phone and text, plus I pay for a snow service he offers through his LRC company to help my staff prepare for winter events. He does lay out a lot of BS from time to time and I like discussing it with him....he gets so mad. I also compliment him every time he nails a forecast.   I just like his forecasting and energy, that's why I pay for his services. They offer multiple updates before and during all snow/ice events. Let's be honest, I can track you, Tom and many others on here to see where the storm is going to hit...plus model data. I choose him and pay for his services because they are helpful for sure. 

Using the LRC, can you forecast how much snow we will have this winter in KC and which weeks will be white and which weeks will be rainy. Gary says he can...I always ask him to give me that week by week forecast....crickets...

 

 I want more out in front this winter, not after the fact. No more claims, we knew this storm would KC because the LRC told us so. If we can predict weeks out using the LRC, lets put it all out there. I'll let the LRC set-up period conclude, then, I expect a storm by storm forecast with dates. I'm asking Gary he same thing. 

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Yes you did and I thank you for that. My problem with many of Gary's claims, is that there are so many ways out of a forecast using the LRC. 

For example, "

I'm predicting a storm on Dec. 20th-22nd. Its the storm that came through in the first cycle and it was a wet storm for KC. (the GFS is showing that storm for next week and we have had it on the LRC calender's for awhile now.) We arrive to Dec. 20th, the storm goes north of KC and we get very little. The LRC will claim there was not enough blocking, there was not enough cold air, whatever, that's why the storm missed us, but the storm is still there. Now, if it hit us head on, the LRC knew this. You know the song and dance with him. I agree, the storm cycled. My argument, you can not tell me  what the storms will be like in the second cycle or the third cycle or the 4th cycle. That cannot be done for a precise location. I argue this because he claims he can. Sure, he'll hit a few right on the nose. 

Let's go back to his forecast for the month of Sept. using the LRC. He sent me a text showing me what Brett Veech received from him for the second Sunday in Sept. He said he sent him a text from weeks ago showing Sept 12th was going to be hot for game, high of 90. He was right! He's says they need to start using the LRC.  Bragged about it! All good, I like confident people...However, two weeks later he called for 70 degrees for the game, it was 93!!!(that's the game Andy Reid got sick, maybe heat related??) He called for a very wet and cool 10 day stretch  end to Sept. and we ended hot and dry, total opposite. So, if the LRC knew about the 90 on Sept. 12th and it was because of the LRC forecast and the LRC forecast only, how did he miss so many other details in that Sept. forecast. My point, we only talk about what hits, never discuss the total misses. If the hits are because of a cycling pattern, how could there be misses??? He gets very defensive....he's a lot of fun!!!!! 

Overall, the LRC works in many ways, I think he has done some amazing forecasting, but, there is so much that is so unpredictable and too many ways to get out of why a forecast from the LRC did not work out. 

I have argued with Gary for years, 13 to be exact. We are friends, we talk by phone and text, plus I pay for a snow service he offers through his LRC company to help my staff prepare for winter events. He does lay out a lot of BS from time to time and I like discussing it with him....he gets so mad. I also compliment him every time he nails a forecast.   I just like his forecasting and energy, that's why I pay for his services. They offer multiple updates before and during all snow/ice events. Let's be honest, I can track you, Tom and many others on here to see where the storm is going to hit...plus model data. I choose him and pay for his services because they are helpful for sure. 

Using the LRC, can you forecast how much snow we will have this winter in KC and which weeks will be white and which weeks will be rainy. Gary says he can...I always ask him to give me that week by week forecast....crickets...

 

 I want more out in front this winter, not after the fact. No more claims, we knew this storm would KC because the LRC told us so. If we can predict weeks out using the LRC, lets put it all out there. I'll let the LRC set-up period conclude, then, I expect a storm by storm forecast with dates. I'm asking Gary he same thing. 

I agree with almost everything you said.  The LRC is great at sniffing out when storms will happen and you can make some assumptions on how it will behave.  I can't tell you what will happen right now in January and February, to many variables that are unknown but I'm starting to get a idea of what the end of November and first half of December could look like.  I hope we have a lot of snow this Winter, we deserve it after missing close so many time last year.

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KC office talking about first freeze and possible flakes next week.

For the late part of the week, going into next weekend expect fall-
like temperatures, with a mostly dry forecast. The first part of
next week might be a period to keep an eye on for a couple different
facets. The more confident aspect is that some or most of the area
could see its first freeze. This will be in response to a broad mid
level trough which will sag into the area. A strong push of cold air
will move in for the Monday and Tuesday time frame which will likely
bring below average temperatures. Again, it`s very possible that
some or most of the forecast area will get it`s first freeze by
sometime next week. This will come on the order of 1 to 3 weeks
after the normal area freeze. The less confident aspect is the
prospects for some light snow to form. GFS has come in a bit more
aggressive with the low level cold air, with a low level cyclone
passing just south of the area. Even with a more aggressive and
ambitious low level cold air advection regime it`ll be quite the
undertaking to get any accumulating snow. But it is worth nothing
that the more recent GFS was a bit more aggressive with the colder
air and it`s juxtaposition with ongoing precipitation.
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LRC = L(ike)R(eally)C(lose) but a miss nonetheless..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Certainly the Northern Sub will get hit with something in November with these powerhouse storms hitting the NW coast of the United States.  However, that will certainly keep the anomalous cold at bay for the Eastern 1/3 of the country.   Lot's of up and downs.  Hopefully the pattern stays active through the end of November and into December when we get more consistent cold.    Blocking just isn't strong enough.  Looking like your average typical November temp wise.  Hoping to see a major storm like NOV 1998 (that one sticks out for some reason to me, believe it was really windy).  

Not that I wouldn't love to see another Nov of '98 wind-bomb, but save it for winter and let the snow be on SMI.

Are we even following the same forum? This pattern has been anything BUT endless cutters to our west. If anything it's been quite the opposite.

Kinda surprised to see this from GRR this pm (and not even their resident winter enthusiast "WDM")

Quote
- Turning colder early next week with a chance for some snow

The Northern Plains upper trough moves into the Great Lakes early
next week with 850mb temperatures dropping to below Zero C. Delta
T`s will increase into the upper teens by Tuesday. A front sets up
near or just south of the MI/IN line with precipitation to the
north of the boundary over Lower Michigan. The air is cold enough
that we will be able to mix in some snow. It is a bit early to
tell whether this is going to occur yet as there are some mixed
signals in the models. Wet bulb zero heights look too warm through
Tuesday for snow, but model output snowfall from the GFS is
actually trying to accumulate snow next Tuesday in our area.
Something we will be watching for sure over the coming days.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

LRC = L(ike)R(eally)C(lose) but a miss nonetheless..

I love it!  That's sorta true...I got a good kick outta this...#happyhumpday

 

Well, we just had our 1st #barney run of the season off the 0z Euro this evening....Brrrrr....this is the Blue Norther I've been looking for when I saw what was lurking.  Models are getting locked on a very cold start to November across the central Sub. @Clinton and many of you are poised to be on the receiving end of a multi-day hard freeze if things keep going the way they are.

1.gif

 

Is the "Omega Block" up near the NW Territories of Canada going to Rock????  This is something we've been missing over the past number of years when storms entered our Sub.  How many times did we have a raging PAC blowing storms in off the ocean into the W CONUS with a sky high +EPO, no blocking whatsoever???  It's a blessing we are seeing the blocks setting up over the northern latitudes and powerful systems tracking underneath the blocking patterns...#southernstream

 

image.png

 

 

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This morning, my mind has been drawn towards the Omega Blocking pattern that is forecast to develop not only across NW Canada, but also in places that are vital to predicting our wx pattern and that is over the N PAC.  The models are suggesting an Omega Blocking pattern to develop around the 7th or so just west of the Aleutians.

image.png

 

0z EPS...still a long ways out, but if this ridge does end up tracking east over the Aleutians in the middle part of Nov, it'll be a clue that a warmer period will transpire post Thanksgiving.  Now, if it does not and stays put, then you will see an amplified N.A. 500mb pattern develop with a stout W NAMER ridge.  Let's see how this all plays out in the days ahead.  Take a gander at that monster trough heading towards East Asia...that correlates to a stormy period leading up to the start of Thanksgiving week (Week of the 21st).

 

1.gif

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@Tom you mentioned a storm around the 7th using the BSR.  I've noticed that the models keep hinting at cut-off low coming out of the SW and moving across the country close to that time frame.  Long ways out still but if it gets ahold of some gulf moisture and with a cool pattern in place, it could be the first Winter storm for you guys up north.  Thought it might be worth a mention and a good early call for you if it goes that way.

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