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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Yes you did and I thank you for that. My problem with many of Gary's claims, is that there are so many ways out of a forecast using the LRC. 

For example, "

I'm predicting a storm on Dec. 20th-22nd. Its the storm that came through in the first cycle and it was a wet storm for KC. (the GFS is showing that storm for next week and we have had it on the LRC calender's for awhile now.) We arrive to Dec. 20th, the storm goes north of KC and we get very little. The LRC will claim there was not enough blocking, there was not enough cold air, whatever, that's why the storm missed us, but the storm is still there. Now, if it hit us head on, the LRC knew this. You know the song and dance with him. I agree, the storm cycled. My argument, you can not tell me  what the storms will be like in the second cycle or the third cycle or the 4th cycle. That cannot be done for a precise location. I argue this because he claims he can. Sure, he'll hit a few right on the nose. 

Let's go back to his forecast for the month of Sept. using the LRC. He sent me a text showing me what Brett Veech received from him for the second Sunday in Sept. He said he sent him a text from weeks ago showing Sept 12th was going to be hot for game, high of 90. He was right! He's says they need to start using the LRC.  Bragged about it! All good, I like confident people...However, two weeks later he called for 70 degrees for the game, it was 93!!!(that's the game Andy Reid got sick, maybe heat related??) He called for a very wet and cool 10 day stretch  end to Sept. and we ended hot and dry, total opposite. So, if the LRC knew about the 90 on Sept. 12th and it was because of the LRC forecast and the LRC forecast only, how did he miss so many other details in that Sept. forecast. My point, we only talk about what hits, never discuss the total misses. If the hits are because of a cycling pattern, how could there be misses??? He gets very defensive....he's a lot of fun!!!!! 

Overall, the LRC works in many ways, I think he has done some amazing forecasting, but, there is so much that is so unpredictable and too many ways to get out of why a forecast from the LRC did not work out. 

I have argued with Gary for years, 13 to be exact. We are friends, we talk by phone and text, plus I pay for a snow service he offers through his LRC company to help my staff prepare for winter events. He does lay out a lot of BS from time to time and I like discussing it with him....he gets so mad. I also compliment him every time he nails a forecast.   I just like his forecasting and energy, that's why I pay for his services. They offer multiple updates before and during all snow/ice events. Let's be honest, I can track you, Tom and many others on here to see where the storm is going to hit...plus model data. I choose him and pay for his services because they are helpful for sure. 

Using the LRC, can you forecast how much snow we will have this winter in KC and which weeks will be white and which weeks will be rainy. Gary says he can...I always ask him to give me that week by week forecast....crickets...

 

 I want more out in front this winter, not after the fact. No more claims, we knew this storm would KC because the LRC told us so. If we can predict weeks out using the LRC, lets put it all out there. I'll let the LRC set-up period conclude, then, I expect a storm by storm forecast with dates. I'm asking Gary he same thing. 

I agree with almost everything you said.  The LRC is great at sniffing out when storms will happen and you can make some assumptions on how it will behave.  I can't tell you what will happen right now in January and February, to many variables that are unknown but I'm starting to get a idea of what the end of November and first half of December could look like.  I hope we have a lot of snow this Winter, we deserve it after missing close so many time last year.

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KC office talking about first freeze and possible flakes next week.

For the late part of the week, going into next weekend expect fall-
like temperatures, with a mostly dry forecast. The first part of
next week might be a period to keep an eye on for a couple different
facets. The more confident aspect is that some or most of the area
could see its first freeze. This will be in response to a broad mid
level trough which will sag into the area. A strong push of cold air
will move in for the Monday and Tuesday time frame which will likely
bring below average temperatures. Again, it`s very possible that
some or most of the forecast area will get it`s first freeze by
sometime next week. This will come on the order of 1 to 3 weeks
after the normal area freeze. The less confident aspect is the
prospects for some light snow to form. GFS has come in a bit more
aggressive with the low level cold air, with a low level cyclone
passing just south of the area. Even with a more aggressive and
ambitious low level cold air advection regime it`ll be quite the
undertaking to get any accumulating snow. But it is worth nothing
that the more recent GFS was a bit more aggressive with the colder
air and it`s juxtaposition with ongoing precipitation.
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LRC = L(ike)R(eally)C(lose) but a miss nonetheless..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Certainly the Northern Sub will get hit with something in November with these powerhouse storms hitting the NW coast of the United States.  However, that will certainly keep the anomalous cold at bay for the Eastern 1/3 of the country.   Lot's of up and downs.  Hopefully the pattern stays active through the end of November and into December when we get more consistent cold.    Blocking just isn't strong enough.  Looking like your average typical November temp wise.  Hoping to see a major storm like NOV 1998 (that one sticks out for some reason to me, believe it was really windy).  

Not that I wouldn't love to see another Nov of '98 wind-bomb, but save it for winter and let the snow be on SMI.

Are we even following the same forum? This pattern has been anything BUT endless cutters to our west. If anything it's been quite the opposite.

Kinda surprised to see this from GRR this pm (and not even their resident winter enthusiast "WDM")

Quote
- Turning colder early next week with a chance for some snow

The Northern Plains upper trough moves into the Great Lakes early
next week with 850mb temperatures dropping to below Zero C. Delta
T`s will increase into the upper teens by Tuesday. A front sets up
near or just south of the MI/IN line with precipitation to the
north of the boundary over Lower Michigan. The air is cold enough
that we will be able to mix in some snow. It is a bit early to
tell whether this is going to occur yet as there are some mixed
signals in the models. Wet bulb zero heights look too warm through
Tuesday for snow, but model output snowfall from the GFS is
actually trying to accumulate snow next Tuesday in our area.
Something we will be watching for sure over the coming days.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

LRC = L(ike)R(eally)C(lose) but a miss nonetheless..

I love it!  That's sorta true...I got a good kick outta this...#happyhumpday

 

Well, we just had our 1st #barney run of the season off the 0z Euro this evening....Brrrrr....this is the Blue Norther I've been looking for when I saw what was lurking.  Models are getting locked on a very cold start to November across the central Sub. @Clinton and many of you are poised to be on the receiving end of a multi-day hard freeze if things keep going the way they are.

1.gif

 

Is the "Omega Block" up near the NW Territories of Canada going to Rock????  This is something we've been missing over the past number of years when storms entered our Sub.  How many times did we have a raging PAC blowing storms in off the ocean into the W CONUS with a sky high +EPO, no blocking whatsoever???  It's a blessing we are seeing the blocks setting up over the northern latitudes and powerful systems tracking underneath the blocking patterns...#southernstream

 

image.png

 

 

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This morning, my mind has been drawn towards the Omega Blocking pattern that is forecast to develop not only across NW Canada, but also in places that are vital to predicting our wx pattern and that is over the N PAC.  The models are suggesting an Omega Blocking pattern to develop around the 7th or so just west of the Aleutians.

image.png

 

0z EPS...still a long ways out, but if this ridge does end up tracking east over the Aleutians in the middle part of Nov, it'll be a clue that a warmer period will transpire post Thanksgiving.  Now, if it does not and stays put, then you will see an amplified N.A. 500mb pattern develop with a stout W NAMER ridge.  Let's see how this all plays out in the days ahead.  Take a gander at that monster trough heading towards East Asia...that correlates to a stormy period leading up to the start of Thanksgiving week (Week of the 21st).

 

1.gif

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@Tom you mentioned a storm around the 7th using the BSR.  I've noticed that the models keep hinting at cut-off low coming out of the SW and moving across the country close to that time frame.  Long ways out still but if it gets ahold of some gulf moisture and with a cool pattern in place, it could be the first Winter storm for you guys up north.  Thought it might be worth a mention and a good early call for you if it goes that way.

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34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Tom you mentioned a storm around the 7th using the BSR.  I've noticed that the models keep hinting at cut-off low coming out of the SW and moving across the country close to that time frame.  Long ways out still but if it gets ahold of some gulf moisture and with a cool pattern in place, it could be the first Winter storm for you guys up north.  Thought it might be worth a mention and a good early call for you if it goes that way.

Clinton, that good ole Canadian Model has that storm you are talking about. The 0Z run has us shoveling...

Lets see how high the rain gauges go today and tomorrow. (NWS has us in the 2-3 inch range) This will be a slow moving 2-day storm here in KC and your area off to the SE of the City. Very wet storm. Beautiful track on it. 

My flower beds are still in full bloom, still no frost and/or freeze. That may be about to change next week. Last year I lost the flower beds in mid OCT. 

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5 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton, that good ole Canadian Model has that storm you are talking about. The 0Z run has us shoveling...

Lets see how high the rain gauges go today and tomorrow. (NWS has us in the 2-3 inch range) This will be a slow moving 2-day storm here in KC and your area off to the SE of the City. Very wet storm. Beautiful track on it. 

My flower beds are still in full bloom, still no frost and/or freeze. That may be about to change next week. Last year I lost the flower beds in mid OCT. 

The euro and Euro control had a similar track but I think we'll be to warm here this time.  It has been nice to have a warm Oct and be able to get out spend time outside.  As far as the next 2 days you couldn't realistically ask for a better storm for us, slow moving and a ton of moisture.  I'm still surprised that our farm ponds are still not full even with all the recent rains, the hot dry September really did a number on them.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@Tom you mentioned a storm around the 7th using the BSR.  I've noticed that the models keep hinting at cut-off low coming out of the SW and moving across the country close to that time frame.  Long ways out still but if it gets ahold of some gulf moisture and with a cool pattern in place, it could be the first Winter storm for you guys up north.  Thought it might be worth a mention and a good early call for you if it goes that way.

Give or take a couple days, that period and around Veterans Day is interesting.  One thing about this pattern, it just doesn’t wanna stop!  Remember those pesky southern/central ridges that seemingly always showed up in years past???  2021 is definitely different and KC appears to have a magnet.  I’m excited for you guys down there and also@Andie @OKwx2k4…esp, down over OK…

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Here come the flakes next week:

NOAA:

Winds will back from NE to N/NW on Saturday, but not before
favorable fetch sets up over southern Lake Huron. Expect
drizzly/showery conditions along the southern Huron shoreline most
of the day while precip diminishes from west to east elsewhere.
Heights rebound Sunday with inbound ridge brining a brief warm up
and dry conditions after zonal flow ensues. Sizable PV anomaly
churns over central Canada on Monday and Tuesday with marked cooling
trend into the midweek timeframe. May even see a few wet flakes
early Tuesday with any light precip that arises from passing surface
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not that I wouldn't love to see another Nov of '98 wind-bomb, but save it for winter and let the snow be on SMI.

Are we even following the same forum? This pattern has been anything BUT endless cutters to our west. If anything it's been quite the opposite.

Kinda surprised to see this from GRR this pm (and not even their resident winter enthusiast "WDM")

 

I just meant a heavy snow event up there.  Models are so far off right now in the long range, who knows what to think?  GFS has a huge SE ridge and big cutter near the end of the run.  Euro is completely different 7-10 days out.  GFS has several days in the 60's NOV 6-10.  I HIGHLY DOUBT that will happen, but it would fit the trend of Fall so far.  Cold shots followed by a period of nice warmth.  But that happens in a very active pattern.  

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's good to this map start to color up.  @CentralNebWeatheryou might be first up.

1636675200-exBUjNmKGZM.png

Whoa.  I am draining the sprinkler system this week.  Going to pick up some leaves tomorrow when we have some sunshine.  Many days of lows in the 20's starting Sunday night.  Hard freeze for sure, and hopefully some snow.  Thanks for posting the map.  Much appreciated.

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26 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Shove it this way after you're done with it!

As always, long way out so I don't ever assume anything.  We are getting to the time of year when we have had big storms.  Not saying this will be big.  Halloween of 1991 is still the standard in this area of early season storms/blizzards.  After that, Nov. 11th of 2000 was a big snow producer.  

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

As always, long way out so I don't ever assume anything.  We are getting to the time of year when we have had big storms.  Not saying this will be big.  Halloween of 1991 is still the standard in this area of early season storms/blizzards.  After that, Nov. 11th of 2000 was a big snow producer.  

It's really really difficult to get early season storms here in SMI. By early here, that would be before gun deer season which opens on the 15th. The earliest big storm would have to be Nov 2-3, 1966. A freakishly early storm that kicked-off one of the top 5 winters for this region.

1886021928_Nov1966Snowstormtotals.png.4b3be4ab99c31c1362934f159ed31c8f.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA:
A pattern shift commences for the late weekend as a Pacific jet
impinges upon the region and forces downstream ridging overhead.
Currently looking at a dry forecast for the holiday Sunday with the
lake effect shutting off as winds back to the northwest and
eventually west. The jet stream sinks south during the early week,
sending a strong but moisture-lacking cold front across the Great
Lakes. Still some spread regarding timing of the front, but looking
at temperatures tumbling well below normal during the early week and
staying there through the bulk of next week.

 

Looks like November is going to enter like an "Lion."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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54 minutes ago, Niko said:
NOAA:
A pattern shift commences for the late weekend as a Pacific jet
impinges upon the region and forces downstream ridging overhead.
Currently looking at a dry forecast for the holiday Sunday with the
lake effect shutting off as winds back to the northwest and
eventually west. The jet stream sinks south during the early week,
sending a strong but moisture-lacking cold front across the Great
Lakes. Still some spread regarding timing of the front, but looking
at temperatures tumbling well below normal during the early week and
staying there through the bulk of next week.

 

Looks like November is going to enter like an "Lion."

The question remains. Will that lion roar with some active wx? Not too excited for just cold coming and squatting on me with a few flurries off of Lk Michigan. I know that's much more typical tho around here with early season Plains blasts. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, Niko said:
NOAA:
A pattern shift commences for the late weekend as a Pacific jet
impinges upon the region and forces downstream ridging overhead.
Currently looking at a dry forecast for the holiday Sunday with the
lake effect shutting off as winds back to the northwest and
eventually west. The jet stream sinks south during the early week,
sending a strong but moisture-lacking cold front across the Great
Lakes. Still some spread regarding timing of the front, but looking
at temperatures tumbling well below normal during the early week and
staying there through the bulk of next week.

 

Looks like November is going to enter like an "Lion."

Will October go out like a lamb?

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Great Minds Think Alike...where did you hear this???

Quote
 
 
 
Weather models are predicting new month-new weather pattern across North America. Ridging in the west & troughing in the east will help erase negative #snow cover anomalies in Eastern Canada & brings the first snowfall forecasts of the season for Northeast US, alas not impressive

 

Well, on a technical note, as we embark on the open of a new month with a new N.A. 500mb pattern...does that result in a new storm track/pattern for the CONUS???  Nope!  The pattern that keeps on giving....#SouthernStream.  Let's dive in....

Last night's 0z EPS sniffing out both storm dates on my calendar....however, there is a sneaky surprise lead wave that is/has been showing up over the past couple days right as we open the month.  Not 1, Not 2...but 3 systems are poised to effect our Sub through the end of Week 2 and the one showing up in the LR towards Veteran's Day has my attention (BIGLY Attention). 

Wrt storm dates, there is now a TX PanHandle Cutter showing up between the 1st-4th, followed by the 4 corners/SW energy between the 7th-9th (Cutter #2)....and finishing off with a Bang during the later parts of Week 2???  @jaster220, to answer your question, it doesn't appear that storm systems will be lacking.  Of course, storm tracks are TBD but the fact that they keep showing up over, or near, our region continues the theme that began during the early parts of Oct.

06z EPS members suggesting a wintry component over the Plains...1st snow on deck???

1.png

 

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34 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

NW flow.

The wx life you chose

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Could the first snowflakes of the season fall during the first week of November here in SMI?! Looks there is a chance for that happening......

NOAA:

A cold front is still on pace to sweep through the region late
Sunday into early Monday as a strong Pacific jet sinks south and
east across the northern CONUS. The degree of dry air that likely
works in Sunday will keep precip chances low during frontal passage.
The front will however bring temps below normal through the week
with 850mb temps settling around -5C. Highs in the 40s and lows in
the 30s will be common next week. There is good agreement among mid
range guidance for the next wave to move through on Tuesday,
bringing the next precip chances. Depending on timing, some snow
showers will be possible with this wave.  

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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34 minutes ago, Niko said:

Could the first snowflakes of the season fall during the first week of November here in SMI?! Looks there is a chance for that happening......

NOAA:

A cold front is still on pace to sweep through the region late
Sunday into early Monday as a strong Pacific jet sinks south and
east across the northern CONUS. The degree of dry air that likely
works in Sunday will keep precip chances low during frontal passage.
The front will however bring temps below normal through the week
with 850mb temps settling around -5C. Highs in the 40s and lows in
the 30s will be common next week. There is good agreement among mid
range guidance for the next wave to move through on Tuesday,
bringing the next precip chances. Depending on timing, some snow
showers will be possible with this wave.  

 

Good luck!  It's about time to get some flakes flying, I think the colder weather next week get everyone excited for winter. 

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51 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good luck!  It's about time to get some flakes flying, I think the colder weather next week get everyone excited for winter. 

Thanks buddy, but tbh, I don't want anything big yet. I prefer end of November to be the target date for snow. In the meantime, a few snowshowers flying in the air early November is always welcome by me. It puts you in the Holiday spirit. 😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks active next week! That low has an fantastic track. Just wish it was in the latter part of November, not early.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PatternChangeENWChannel28Oct.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/StormPotentialNextWeekChannel28Oct.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Looks active next week! That low has an fantastic track. Just wish it was in the latter part of November, not early.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PatternChangeENWChannel28Oct.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/StormPotentialNextWeekChannel28Oct.jpg?w=632

yep wasted rain storm.  Just not enough super cold air yet anywhere except northern parts may get some decent snows soon.  

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The upcoming week of cold has trended to also be very uneventful around here.  That's fine, though, as I'd rather the big events wait til winter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 10/27/2021 at 7:32 AM, Tom said:

Give or take a couple days, that period and around Veterans Day is interesting.  One thing about this pattern, it just doesn’t wanna stop!  Remember those pesky southern/central ridges that seemingly always showed up in years past???  2021 is definitely different and KC appears to have a magnet.  I’m excited for you guys down there and also@Andie @OKwx2k4…esp, down over OK…

You nailed it. Whstever weak ridging we have seen since the July cold wave has been met with an attacking trough. This pattern is awesome. Plus, there's an open doir for late season phasing out SW like the good ole days. Im excited.

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