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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

..and so it begins

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It seems like it was yesterday when we were all baking in the endless heat and humidity from this past summer, esp up north and west across our Sub.  Those day are history and engraved in our memory, but what is coming next week is what some of us have been yearning for a LONG time.  Next will feature a week of "firsts" for a lot of us....1st snows?  1st Freeze?  1st Lake Effect Snows?  1st cold wave....???  Let's see what the models are showing....

0z Euro...

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We open up Novembrrrrr......chilly nights ahead where HP is centered over the heartland of the nation underneath clear skies and perfect radiational cooling conditions...

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Hmm. First time hearing about this:

GRR:

Quote
.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Winds and waves will become hazardous to small craft as the day
continues. Webcams show the whitecaps increasing as the cold front
passes. These conditions will likely persist into Tuesday. Water
temperatures remain in the upper 50s over the majority of the lake
surface, which will help support some lake- enhanced rain showers
today. Waterspout potential is leaning toward unlikely on the
nomogram with lake-850 delta T of 15C and a convective cloud depth
of less than 5000 feet.

Just when you kinda figured you'd seen it all..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This weeks chilly, then that’s a lotta red…

One big storm around mid month but it’s rain unless you’re in the western Dakotas and there’s no cold air behind it as temps are still above normal after the system passes

floop-gfs-2021110100.sfct_anom.conus.gif

Remember that LR GFS temp map you posted a while back (Oct 17th) that showed a blow torch to end Oct and open Nov?  It's pretty obvious that it isn't turning out quite that well...I know your just posting these maps to show the warmth but why not show some balance when its not??  Personally, I'm not perfect and make bad calls but in all fairness, I've gotten a lot better highlighting both sides of the spectrum.  I have posted on the record warmth in Oct, esp around the GL's region, but going against those who seek colder weather and snow isn't necessarily fair. I dunno if your doing it on purpose or not but I don't think I've seen you post or comment when the weather turns cold.

 

I'm pretty sure I got ridiculed by some (quietly) on here when I was calling for a major trough 2-3 weeks back that would develop across the eastern CONUS to close out Oct.  That was during a time when the models had zero clue and it ended up verifying.  Turned out to be a D**n good LR call. 

Speaking on the topic of LR maps, the one you're showing above.  Are you posting that to prove or predict it'll be warm???  Again??  My call, after the Veteran's Day system (give or take a day or two), I'm watching for your area to get a blast of real chilly air as the pattern will have a winter bite in the air 🌨️.  I made a LR call about a week ago to look for a storm during this period and its prob going to verify as well.

BTW, you can call me out anytime, I don't mind taking constructive criticism.  That's how I grow.  I'll be honest, I like hearing your side of the story the more I read your comments.  I welcome the balance on this forum.  Happy Monday!

 

 

 

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Welcome to Novembrrr!  Lake effect snows have fired up to our north...I didn't realize this, but IndianHead Mtn Ski Resort combined with neighboring Blackjack Mtn into Big Snow Resort.  Let it snow...

https://www.bigsnow.com/live-cams

Current conditions at

Ironwood, Gogebic-Iron County Airport (KIWD)

Lat: 46.53°NLon: 90.13°WElev: 1230ft.
nsn.png

Light Snow

34°F

1°C

Humidity 76%
Wind Speed W 14 mph
Barometer 30.03 in (1018.2 mb)
Dewpoint 27°F (-3°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 25°F (-4°C)
Last update 1 Nov 1:56 am CDT

 

image.png

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The latest CFSv2 model over the past week or so has shown an interesting North American pattern.  Similarly, as was the pattern back in Oct, it is suggesting a red paint bomb over N Canada.  Instead of it being centered over eastern parts of Canada, its farther north this month..although, one can say there is still hints of ridging in the east.  Could this be another indicator that suggests more blocking??  I believe so.  Hudson Bay HP's???  Yup, you can prob count on that happening.  Another Active southern stream?  Very likely based on other LR signals I'm seeing.  Keep the storm parade going...and the moisture feed flowing...that monstrous PAC jet ain't going away anytime soon.  Get ready @Mr Marine Layer  and those who lurk on here from So Cal...mid/late November has my attn for your region for some pretty potent storms.  #SWFlow

image.png

 

 

 

Some more LR thoughts as my interest has been perked on the idea of #winter after seeing snow falling up north and out west near @CentralNebWeather.  A big reversal in the 10mb strat temps is about to happen over Siberia/Russia over the upcoming week provided by the maps below.  Is this the evidence we need that would indicate a legit chance for winter to get going early in late Nov/early Dec?  The Strat Warm event that started back in mid Oct is showing signs that the cold air showed up in the lower mid latitudes right now. 

1.gif

temp10anim.gif

 

Current status....

 

1.png

 

Day 5....

 

2.png

 

By the week of the 14th, I'm predicting a sustained early onslaught of wintry conditions for the Upper MW/W GL's region.  How far this bleeds south and eastward is contingent upon the blocking up north.  @FAR_Weather and those up north are poised to get their first snows this week of Nov...get your winter gear ready!  This pattern should lock in for a bit and start to build up the glacier up north across Southern Canada where we need it most this time of year.  Don't want to see any "snow holes" develop that mitigate the strength of Arctic Air to bleed on south into the Lower 48.

In terms of the LRC, I think there is a harmonic pattern within the longer term pattern.  I've been studying this part of the developing LRC and I think it is showing up late this weekend into next week.  The Veteran's Day system will be a test. Let's see if this is a repeating pattern bc we've seen something similar when a monster storm wrapped up near Fargo Oct 9th/10th.  IF, there is another piece of energy that tracks out of the SW following the Veteran's Day system and cuts up towards the GL's, then I'll be more convinced there is a 30-33 day harmonic...or...a very short LRC cycle???  Things to ponder on over the coming month of wx observations.

 

image.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The latest CFSv2 model over the past week or so has shown an interesting North American pattern.  Similarly, as was the pattern back in Oct, it is suggesting a red paint bomb over N Canada.  Instead of it being centered over eastern parts of Canada, its farther north this month..although, one can say there is still hints of ridging in the east.  Could this be another indicator that suggests more blocking??  I believe so.  Hudson Bay HP's???  Yup, you can prob count on that happening.  Another Active southern stream?  Very likely based on other LR signals I'm seeing.  Keep the storm parade going...and the moisture feed flowing...that monstrous PAC jet ain't going away anytime soon.  Get ready @Mr Marine Layer  and those who lurk on here from So Cal...mid/late November has my attn for your region for some pretty potent storms.  #SWFlow

image.png

 

 

 

Some more LR thoughts as my interest has been perked on the idea of #winter after seeing snow falling up north and out west near @CentralNebWeather.  A big reversal in the 10mb strat temps is about to happen over Siberia/Russia over the upcoming week provided by the maps below.  Is this the evidence we need that would indicate a legit chance for winter to get going early in late Nov/early Dec?  The Strat Warm event that started back in mid Oct is showing signs that the cold air showed up in the lower mid latitudes right now. 

1.gif

temp10anim.gif

 

Current status....

 

1.png

 

Day 5....

 

2.png

 

By the week of the 14th, I'm predicting a sustained early onslaught of wintry conditions for the Upper MW/W GL's region.  How far this bleeds south and eastward is contingent upon the blocking up north.  @FAR_Weather and those up north are poised to get their first snows this week of Nov...get your winter gear ready!  This pattern should lock in for a bit and start to build up the glacier up north across Southern Canada where we need it most this time of year.  Don't want to see any "snow holes" develop that mitigate the strength of Arctic Air to bleed on south into the Lower 48.

In terms of the LRC, I think there is a harmonic pattern within the longer term pattern.  I've been studying this part of the developing LRC and I think it is showing up late this weekend into next week.  The Veteran's Day system will be a test. Let's see if this is a repeating pattern bc we've seen something similar when a monster storm wrapped up near Fargo Oct 9th/10th.  IF, there is another piece of energy that tracks out of the SW following the Veteran's Day system and cuts up towards the GL's, then I'll be more convinced there is a 30-33 day harmonic...or...a very short LRC cycle???  Things to ponder on over the coming month of wx observations.

 

image.png

It's great that you bring up how similar pattern is with the big storm next Monday and the  Oct 9th/10th storm.  I believe this is most likely a harmonic, Gary often says the most important part of the pattern occurs between Oct 25th and Nov 10th because that's when harmonic storms are most likely to occur. 

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Now, this I haven't seen in my forecast since last Spring 2021: 😃

  • Tuesday
     

    Tuesday: A chance of snow showers after 5pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 45. West wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Partly Sunny
    then Chance
    Snow Showers

    High: 45 °F

  • Tuesday
    Night

    Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 5 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Chance Snow
    Showers then
    Mostly Clear

    Low: 30 °F

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just enough snow to cover the grass.  Trended north and a little weaker at the last minute according to NWS Hastings.  You always hope those aren't trends for the winter.  I would say some places NW or me probably got a couple of inches.  I may end up with 1/2" or a little more as precipitation continues.  It took longer to get down to the low 30's than they predicted, so I think that also cut back on the 1-3" predictions.  

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This is looking to be a dry, chilly week. That is fine because we need to dry up a bit. Highs will primarily be in the 40s all week and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F.  Slight moderation by the weekend, when temps could reach the low 50s (which is back to normal).

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Cedar Rapids airport reported 25º for a low this morning, lower than any other site in eastern Iowa.  The station down the road from me bottomed at 28.9º.

I'm liking the warmth models are suggesting in the 7-10 day period.  There is still plenty of yard/garden work to do.

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  • Sun 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We'll see if KC gets their first freeze this week, likely depends on if we can clear out any one of the nights through the week. Going to be close. 

We finished up October with well above average moisture and above average temps. Long range GFS has a cool week through Thursday this week and then well above average temps starting later this weekend into what appears most of next week. We'll see how warm we get. (2) big storms in there towards mid month per the 06z GFS. Pattern looks to remain very active, but warm overall. Hopefully as we head towards turkey day and early Dec. we start locking some cold air in throughout the country. 

First snow event for Nebraska, NICE! Hopefully some of you have some pictures of it to show. 

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Welcome to November. Here is a look at how October ended up in West Michigan.

 October 2021 is now in the record books. It was a warm and wet month to day the least. At Grand Rapids with a mean of 57.0 it was the 7th warmest on record the high for the month was 80 on the 11th there were a total of 12 days with highs of 70 or better. The low for the month was 31 on the 24 and 27th. At Muskegon with a mean of 58.2 it was the 3rd warmest October the high for the month there was 79 on the 11th there were a total of 12 days of 70 or better. The low was 30 on the 27th there was a total of 3.50" of rain. At Holland and Lansing it was also the 3rd warmest October of record. The mean at Holland was 58.2 the high for the month was 82 on the 1st there were a total of 14 days of 70 or better. The low for the month was 32 on the 24th and 27th and there was 5.01" of rain fall. At Lansing the mean for the month was 57.9 the high for the month was 81 on the 11th there was a total of 16 days with highs of 70 or better. The low was 31 on the 24th and there was a total of 5.15" of rain fall.

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The overnight low here at my house was 31 and there is frost here and there is ice in the bird bath water. I am sure it has happened before but most of the leaves are still on the trees here and while there is now some color there are still a lot of green leaves on the trees. A shower yesterday dropped 0.04" of rain here. At this time it is clear and 32 here. Oh BTY official low at GRR looks to have been a warmer 36.

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9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here is a small town west of me as of 8:25 AM.  Nice wet snow.

Eustis.jpg

Looks beautiful.  I think I will have to wait until the very end of the month before the ground turns white, but I think it will be worth the wait this Winter.  Here's to many more snowy mornings.

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks beautiful.  I think I will have to wait until the very end of the month before the ground turns white, but I think it will be worth the wait this Winter.  Here's to many more snowy mornings.

Probably snowing as hard now as we have had.  Not accumulating on the streets.  Only 32 degrees so it sure has that winter feel.

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Next weekend looks perfect to start to winterize the yard after a cold week with scattered lake effect rain/snow showers.    Unless something changes, current forecast is Mid 50's, split flow and ridging.  Should be a nice fall weekend before bigger storms come back into the picture mid month.  

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The long term forecast would seem to shut Tx/Okla out largely.  However we’re not used to “real” winter until January.  
meanwhile I fed my magnolia tree and am prepping for winter.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Man it looks like they won't be making snow until the end of November or the start of December. And this cold snap is just enough to get the water temp cold to burn when you jump in with a full wetsuit. Bad scenario for me, snowboarding pushed back and we get the cold blast early enough to make the water really cold. What a bunch of BS.

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On 10/27/2021 at 10:27 AM, tStacsh said:

I just meant a heavy snow event up there.  Models are so far off right now in the long range, who knows what to think?  GFS has a huge SE ridge and big cutter near the end of the run.  Euro is completely different 7-10 days out.  GFS has several days in the 60's NOV 6-10.  I HIGHLY DOUBT that will happen, but it would fit the trend of Fall so far.  Cold shots followed by a period of nice warmth.  But that happens in a very active pattern.  

Hate being right.  Unless something changes all models now support a decent warm up during this time frame in the center of the nation.  Would hate for that pattern to take shape over the next couple months.  

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's great that you bring up how similar pattern is with the big storm next Monday and the  Oct 9th/10th storm.  I believe this is most likely a harmonic, Gary often says the most important part of the pattern occurs between Oct 25th and Nov 10th because that's when harmonic storms are most likely to occur. 

You guys are lucky to see his wx segments on TV bc I’m sure he provides more details wrt the LRC pattern. Did he mention anything about this potential harmonic?

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

You guys are lucky to see his wx segments on TV bc I’m sure he provides more details wrt the LRC pattern. Did he mention anything about this potential harmonic?

Not about that particular storm but he has in the past.  Every year he emphasizes how important the 2 week period between Oct 25 and Nov 10th is.  What I have realized is that time period seems to correlate to harmonics that appear later in the pattern.

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35F and some seriously heavy and very robust frost greeted me on this first morning of November. Had not even a hint of frost until today. Guess I'll be using the covered parking the rest of the week..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Not about that particular storm but he has in the past.  Every year he emphasizes how important the 2 week period between Oct 25 and Nov 10th is.  What I have realized is that time period seems to correlate to harmonics that appear later in the pattern.

Yeah, like when there's a big powerhouse Nov storm, that later cycles thru in Jan

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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