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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This weeks chilly, then that’s a lotta red…

One big storm around mid month but it’s rain unless you’re in the western Dakotas and there’s no cold air behind it as temps are still above normal after the system passes

floop-gfs-2021110100.sfct_anom.conus.gif

 

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Hate being right.  Unless something changes all models now support a decent warm up during this time frame in the center of the nation.  Would hate for that pattern to take shape over the next couple months.  

You two should just be founding members of the "GFS LR BS Club" and call it a day!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, MIKEKC said:

First snowflakes of the season here in KC. Wet snow mixed in with the rain, 36 degrees. YUCK! I'm okay with this in early Nov. BUT, DEC....it better be all SNOW!!

 

GO WINTER!

I just saw that on TV, I was hoping one of you guys were seeing them.

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

Remember that LR GFS temp map you posted a while back (Oct 17th) that showed a blow torch to end Oct and open Nov?  It's pretty obvious that it isn't turning out quite that well...I know your just posting these maps to show the warmth but why not show some balance when its not??  Personally, I'm not perfect and make bad calls but in all fairness, I've gotten a lot better highlighting both sides of the spectrum.  I have posted on the record warmth in Oct, esp around the GL's region, but going against those who seek colder weather and snow isn't necessarily fair. I dunno if your doing it on purpose or not but I don't think I've seen you post or comment when the weather turns cold.

 

I'm pretty sure I got ridiculed by some (quietly) on here when I was calling for a major trough 2-3 weeks back that would develop across the eastern CONUS to close out Oct.  That was during a time when the models had zero clue and it ended up verifying.  Turned out to be a D**n good LR call. 

Speaking on the topic of LR maps, the one you're showing above.  Are you posting that to prove or predict it'll be warm???  Again??  My call, after the Veteran's Day system (give or take a day or two), I'm watching for your area to get a blast of real chilly air as the pattern will have a winter bite in the air 🌨️.  I made a LR call about a week ago to look for a storm during this period and its prob going to verify as well.

BTW, you can call me out anytime, I don't mind taking constructive criticism.  That's how I grow.  I'll be honest, I like hearing your side of the story the more I read your comments.  I welcome the balance on this forum.  Happy Monday!

 

 

 

I’m giving the balance to this forum that you said you like.😁

I don’t understand why you and Grizz are so hung up on the 8-14 day CPC outlook for this week being wrong. They certainly weren’t wrong for August, September and most of October when we were supposed to be flipping seasons into an early fall with early snowfall and freezing temps were they? But that was the prediction here, which is fine. This is a winter weather forum after all😉

I thought I’ve made it pretty clear before that I’m not a cold weather fan, but rather a snowstorm/blizzard/severe weather fan, so no I’m not going to post maps that just shows it’s cold(zzzzzzzzzzzz), but I will post about impending big snowstorms which as you know, we haven’t had any.

Meanwhile, the political hacks at the CPC updated their outlook for November yesterday.

1B09444D-CBCA-4D1F-9D02-05343EAEC0E3.jpeg

BCE91A92-19B1-440A-B894-787BDA4CD475.jpeg

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

 

You two should just be founding members of the "GFS LR BS Club" and call it a day!

Don't look at the Euro or other models because they support it,  as well as NOAA as we flip to near to above average in November.  Sorry it doesn't support the three people wishcasting epic November and Decembers.  Same old every year, outside of 7 years ago.  That won't happen again in a long time, but we sure have been having consistent non starters to winter.  Having some flakes in early November is completely normal.  People on here act like it's the next coming of an ice age.    Oh no we might get some flakes this week then flip to near 55-60 degrees.  EPIC.  Hey the 12Z GFS has a storm and "cold" (brrr 20's in November) at the end of it's run.  Certainly will happen because it fits a narrative, right? 

I just hope we get a near big-dog this year.  It's been a long time.   

My prediction.  Completely near normal winter.  Gonna be some cold, some warm cutters and there will be snow, rain, sleet and ice.  

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A very Autumn-like looking day outside w a blend of clouds and sun. Temps are hovering in the upper 40s, w some strong breezes as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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35 minutes ago, james1976 said:

GFS has the Vets day system that @Tomhas been predicting. Hopefully someone can get some snow out of it.

12Z Euro has a storm around, but a Low in Canada has stolen most of the punch at 240 Hours.  Will be interesting to watch the timeframe from the 11-15th of November.

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45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Wow looks like it out preformed the models.

Yep, especially west.  It didn't get quite as far east as models had predicted.  I think they officially had me for about 1.5", but of course much of that was melting on contact.  Only a few places with snow left in my area, but the temp has only hit about 35 degrees.  Raw day for sure.  Hard freezes coming up in the next few nights.

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8 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Don't look at the Euro or other models because they support it,  as well as NOAA as we flip to near to above average in November.  Sorry it doesn't support the three people wishcasting epic November and Decembers.  Same old every year, outside of 7 years ago.  That won't happen again in a long time, but we sure have been having consistent non starters to winter.  Having some flakes in early November is completely normal.  People on here act like it's the next coming of an ice age.    Oh no we might get some flakes this week then flip to near 55-60 degrees.  EPIC.  Hey the 12Z GFS has a storm and "cold" (brrr 20's in November) at the end of it's run.  Certainly will happen because it fits a narrative, right? 

I just hope we get a near big-dog this year.  It's been a long time.   

My prediction.  Completely near normal winter.  Gonna be some cold, some warm cutters and there will be snow, rain, sleet and ice.  

If you're holding your breath for the day either global shows endless cold 2+ wks out (especially on Nov 1st) just quit or you'll expire. Ain't gonna happen! Cold waves that do happen in Nov are usually10 days max, then the rubber band snaps back and we torch well into Dec. Even Dec's can be late launchers and we've had a ton of total dumpster fire Dec's lately but we've also had epic Dec's as recently as 2016 and 2017. I don't want to waste cold on Nov anyways, it's always marginal for snow production, and falls on warm ground giving the snow zero staying power. Besides, Nina's aren't normally about cold, more like 07-08 when marginal temps worked out just right. Now, having said that, 2nd year Nina's do have a history of "coin tossing" their way into some historic cold periods. That, timed just right with a Big Dog system is what I'm hoping for. 

THIS is what I want:

Quote

A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST...COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP IN AND CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. WINDS WILL RAMP UP SUDDENLY IN THE
20Z-00Z TIME FRAME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COMMENCE...WITH
KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR POTENTIALLY SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
VSBY/S MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH TIME FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WILL RESULT.

 

 

Now this is impressive...

Barometer: 28.94" (980.7 mb)

That is for here as of 5:53am!!

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Signs that many of us will be able to enjoy some true "Indian Summer" weather conditions late this weekend into early next week since a lot of us will have already experienced our 1st freezes of the season.  How long will this last???  It appears that a streak of 5+ days of nothing but sunshine and highs in the upper 50's to near 60F seem like a good bet around here.  Perfect wx to do some leaf clean up, last mow's of the season, winterizing, etc...bc what I see coming after this warmer period will be a preview of winter.  Buckle up...it's gonna get bumpy around Vet's Day!

Meantime, it's a chilly morning with temps dropping into the low 30's locally.  I saw some good frost yesterday but I'm sure today it'll be even more widespread.  LOT will discontinue issuing frost/freeze advisories for the season (check that off the list).  Next up, I'll be looking forward to the 1st snow advisories/watch's of the season....speaking of which, those up North/NW should be gearing up for a big system around Vet's Day.

The latest 0z EPS/GEFS are now beginning to lock on a massive system for Vet's Day...severe wx, snowstorm (Blitz?)...this one will have dynamics.  Everything about this 0z EPS snow mean animation speaks for itself...#winteriscoming #NorthAmericanGlacier

 

1.gif

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was just looking at them also.  Did you see the MJO going into phase 7 at the end of the month?

0d40d5_747cac010b9e4e7199ffa54f12478e68~mv2.webp

While not amplified, it does do some interesting things...I like that it doesn't roll into the warm phases and stays in the "null phase"...

1.gif

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

If you're holding your breath for the day either global shows endless cold 2+ wks out (especially on Nov 1st) just quit or you'll expire. Ain't gonna happen! Cold waves that do happen in Nov are usually10 days max, then the rubber band snaps back and we torch well into Dec. Even Dec's can be late launchers and we've had a ton of total dumpster fire Dec's lately but we've also had epic Dec's as recently as 2016 and 2017. I don't want to waste cold on Nov anyways, it's always marginal for snow production, and falls on warm ground giving the snow zero staying power. Besides, Nina's aren't normally about cold, more like 07-08 when marginal temps worked out just right. Now, having said that, 2nd year Nina's do have a history of "coin tossing" their way into some historic cold periods. That, timed just right with a Big Dog system is what I'm hoping for. 

THIS is what I want:

 

I would pay good money for a good snowstorm (All snow, temp 28 or under 8+ inches)  or long duration bitter cold LES event this year.    

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Looking forward to the nice warm-up this weekend (temps in the 50s and dare I say approaching 60F in spots), after a few mornings that will have encountered temps in the mid to upper 20s. A "Hard Freeze" is on the way for many, so, "Indian Summer" is on the way as well. Perfection weather for any last minute clean-up outside the house and to finally prepare for Winter.

Currently, my temps are hovering in the 30s under mostly sunny skies. Strong CF approaching today (mainly dry), but could trigger a few sprinkles or even some flurries. A mainly dry week ahead w tons of sunshine each and every day.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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13 minutes ago, james1976 said:

FWIW, 6z GFS has 2 very interesting systems between the 11th and 15th. That 2nd one has a strange track cutting straight north thru the middle of the sub. This time frame looks intriguing. End of the run has another L developing in SE CO.

I always get interested when I see a low in SE Colorado.  

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The overnight low here at my house was 38, the official overnight low at GRR was 37. There was 0.02" in the rain gauge. At this time it is partly cloudy and 38 here. While the Maple tree across the street is dropping its leaves most of the trees in my area still have most if not all of their leaves still on them. There are Ash trees that have dropped most of their leaves but that is it. I have trees in my yard that are still green yet

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59 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I would pay good money for a good snowstorm (All snow, temp 28 or under 8+ inches)  or long duration bitter cold LES event this year.    

This weeks pattern is a bonafide Long Duration LES event that should cycle a few times…hopefully you guys in the snow belts get to see several to develop in the winter.

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Nice to read everyone experiencing the change in the weather.  
Texas has never been known for iits Fall, but today is one of those days that signal the change.   
 

The weather is very quiet and a heavy dark overcast.  This makes the yellow on the tips of the trees brighter.  We’re at 54* this morning and they expect a light frost tonight at 38-39*.  Having experienced this many times the temps are slowly changing and we’ll see our first freeze soon.  
 

Rain tonight and tomorrow all day.  A good slow soaker. That cold rain should just do the trick!   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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42 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

KC may be looking at it's first freeze over the next few nights.  But it'll be close.  If we don't hit it, we'll have to wait probably another week for our next shot.  Average around here is October 28th (although several nearby locations are before that).  Going back to 1950, the latest I can find is November 19th.  90% of the time, it occurs by November 10th.  

Note: A local reporting station in the suburb of Prairie Village hit 31.9 this morning, but that's not official.  

Untitled.jpg

image.thumb.png.2627eff93078814ee53ec247a70ca5a0.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro EPS control has two systems that bear watching for wintry precip. The first is in the 10-11 day period and it currently shows this for accumulating snowfall --

image.thumb.png.185f4f25129c953e4ae9df329788bd38.pngThe 2nd is at the end of the run - day 15 and shows this for 24 hr totals -(I understand it probably will not transpire like this, likely further N if anything, but it's fun going back into winter tracking mode after 8 months off). image.thumb.png.4d3117f842d397c2df131699d6ef53f5.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Now that was a hard freeze. All the way down to 22.0 this morning IMBY.

All the flowers etc are wilted/droopy and a majority of the trees are raining leaves even though there's no wind. Our neighbor's 40 foot tall Maple looks like it could drop it's entire load of leaves just today with how fast they're coming down.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I always get interested when I see a low in SE Colorado.  

For SMI, that would be a SLP over Indy or just north. Even if it goes due N from there, that translates to "bomb storm" and brings with it the likelyhood of high winds, backside snows, and other fun-n-games for The Mitt.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Now that was a hard freeze. All the way down to 22.0 this morning IMBY.

All the flowers etc are wilted/droopy and a majority of the trees are raining leaves even though there's no wind. Our neighbor's 40 foot tall Maple looks like it could drop it's entire load of leaves just today with how fast they're coming down.

Had that here in 2017 iirc

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS staying with a big one @FAR_Weather

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_37.png

KFAR special? Tis the season for west cutters. Remains to be seen if any "future blocking" could shift the nature of these mid-Nov systems. Was it last Feb's biggie that began on models as an MSP special but trended to a DTW to CLE special?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

This weeks pattern is a bonafide Long Duration LES event that should cycle a few times…hopefully you guys in the snow belts get to see several to develop in the winter.

Yep, check out the parade of pin-wheeling troughs over The Mitt

 

2021-11-02 12pm Surf.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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