jaster220 Posted November 2, 2021 Report Share Posted November 2, 2021 Marshall may well have had 1st (legit) flakes this pm per this obs 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2021 Report Share Posted November 2, 2021 Lows are heading down into the 20s tanite. First hard freeze of the season. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2021 Report Share Posted November 2, 2021 This week will feature this for many: 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 First one of the year! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Green Bay WI 710 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 WIZ005-030815- /O.NEW.KGRB.WW.Y.0011.211103T0100Z-211103T1500Z/ Vilas- Including the cities of Eagle River and Lac Du Flambeau 710 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers expected. 2 to 5 inches possible over the northeast half of Vilas county with less elsewhere. * WHERE...Vilas County. * WHEN...Until 10 AM CDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 719 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 New Information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 719 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Vilas county for 2 to 5 inches of lake effect snow. Mesoscale models suggest that winds at 850 and 925 mb will veer more to the north this evening creating more favorable conditions as cold northwest winds blow over a longer stretch of Lake Superior waters. Duluth and Marquette radar have returns at more than 8000 ft above the ground and forecast sounding suggest that cloud tops of 10,000` are possible. This should produce periods of at least moderate snow in Vilas county tonight. It should diminish Wednesday morning. && 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Already down to 30. Wow! Already had a few hard freezes but this may be the coldest yet. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Vets Day storm prolly gonna be a Dakotas special. Not surprising this early in the season. Get ready @FAR_Weather! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 The U.P. got their first taste of LES and they sure added up near MQT...this map shows 8-12" on the east side of the U.P... While on the topic of snow, Alaska has been inundated by Ol' Man Winters early grip yet again this year....massive amounts of snow at a record setting pace near Homer/Valdez area. I'm sure we'll see some snowy scenes on the show "Alaska The Last Frontier" come spring time next year when the new episodes are released. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days Oh, ya...about that Vet's day storm....0z Euro for eye candy...Dakota's special... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 0z EPS snow mean not shying away from spreading the "white gold" from north to south...#blocking Enjoy the Indian Summer wx thats on tap for this weekend, bc we are about to get a real taste of winter post Vet's Day. All the models are locking in on a colder/wintry pattern for the eastern CONUS for the 2nd half of November. I sure as heck am going to finish up all my chores outdoors this weekend. It'll feel real nice with sunny skies and low 60's in the forecast. The fall colors are exploding in my neighborhood and actually rather vibrant. Great wx to see the last of the colors before the wind/storm later next week. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 The GFS has been trending further east. 6z GFS with a Vetrans Day bomb. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 This morning I have my first frost and freeze of the season. Skies cleared overnight and the temp has dropped to 28. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: This morning I have my first frost and freeze of the season. Skies cleared overnight and the temp has dropped to 28. Nice to have that combo both happen at the same time! Coldest morning of the season here as well (28F). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: The GFS has been trending further east. 6z GFS with a Vetrans Day bomb. I skimmed through the EPS/GEFS members and there are a few in the bunch that support this idea. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Tom said: I skimmed through the EPS/GEFS members and there are a few in the bunch that support this idea. The air behind this system is cold. We could go from 20 degrees above normal ahead of the storm to 20 degrees below normal behind it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 White ground attm as if it snowed. Crystal clear skies, no wind at all and a cold temp at 29F. Hello November! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Eastern Iowa has outperformed the forecast this morning. It has dropped down to 21º here in the city. 2 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 First off I had the first snow fall of the season it mostly melted on contact. There was a total of 0.04" of rain and melted snow here overnight. While it was the coldest night of this fall season so far it was still warmer here than at the airport. The low here was 29 while at the airport they reported a low of 25 so far. At this time it is clear here and 29 there is trace amounts of snow and ice on the roofs and cars here. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 9 hours ago, james1976 said: Vets Day storm prolly gonna be a Dakotas special. Not surprising this early in the season. Get ready @FAR_Weather! Mehh we'll see lol. I got burned on way too many "Dakotas specials" last year to enjoy this right now. 1 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, Niko said: White ground attm as if it snowed. Crystal clear skies, no wind at all and a cold temp at 29F. Hello November! There is a combination of frost, snow and ice here as there was a couple of snow showers mixed with rain and then it became clear and thus the frost. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, westMJim said: There is a combination of frost, snow and ice here as there was a couple of snow showers mixed with rain and then it became clear and thus the frost. Best combo for November standards. Btw: Congrats on ur first flakes. No flakes made here yesterday, but up north, look-out. Some places had some healthy amounts. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Pretty good agreement so far on a healthy storm late next week in the upper Midwest. GRR NWS mentions "gales of November". Unfortunately it will be too warm here for anything exciting winter wise (unless something drastically changes in track). But good luck to the early winners of fall up north and west! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 6 hours ago, Tom said: The U.P. got their first taste of LES and they sure added up near MQT...this map shows 8-12" on the east side of the U.P... While on the topic of snow, Alaska has been inundated by Ol' Man Winters early grip yet again this year....massive amounts of snow at a record setting pace near Homer/Valdez area. I'm sure we'll see some snowy scenes on the show "Alaska The Last Frontier" come spring time next year when the new episodes are released. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days Oh, ya...about that Vet's day storm....0z Euro for eye candy...Dakota's special... Got a feeling the UP will be buried in LES early this winter. Especially with a brief warmup coming. Warmer Lake is ripe for heavy events. Looks like a pattern change coming by next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Got down to 21 this morning. Novemberrrrr! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 This is from Lezaks blog this morning discussing the storm next week. It may not be a hard cutter Then, by mid-next week, a negatively tilted trough will zip out into the middle of the nation. A negatively tilted trough "tilts" to the right, and a positively tilted trough leans from northeast to southwest, or to the left. Negatively tilted troughs are much more energetic, and this one needs to be watched closely next week. I will discuss this in more detail on the air tonight. This system will likely be a strong storm, but it may end up tracking north of KC. I am not sold on that yet, so let's see how the models trend. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Ok, i'll post it. Guaranteed to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Ok, i'll post it. Guaranteed to happen. The Euro is much more progressive with the energy, but it's a long way out and models will flop around a lot. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Ok, i'll post it. Guaranteed to happen. Haha yup and thats from a secondary low that is popping up again. First low stays north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Haha yup and thats from a secondary low that is popping up again. First low stays north. Euro Control slowed down the main energy and was further SE. More model flopping ahead. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 11" in Wakefield MI as of 1pm. I'll take the Euro Control to the bank next week! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Euro Control slowed down the main energy and was further SE. More model flopping ahead. Best time of the year bud has arrived weatherwise, when we get to watch the models flip flop in anticipation of a storm track 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Temps are dropping like a rock. Already down to the mid 30s. Lows tanite will be falling easily in the 20s once again (mid to upper 20s). Hard Freeze on tap! Tbh, looking forward to this "Indian Summer" coming up this weekend and especially early next week. Will kinda feel like a break from the chill that we are experiencing now, b4 the next batch arrives soon. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 Hopefully the last GfS run we can throw out. Otherwise Fall is here to stay for a while. Warm November incoming. Sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 Boy, are the models flip flopping run-to-run and the blocking is certainly adding another layer of confusion for them. For instance, you can see the trend in the 0z GEFS over the past 7 runs. The culprit...a stronger Archipelago HP and stronger western U.S. ridge. The year of high lat blocking is playing a role...I'm also seeing more ensemble members shifting SE. The year of the "SE trend"? Hmmmm...could be something to watch in the models as the season of storm tracking has begun. This is going to be my first legit system of the season that officially kicks off "storm tracking"...check that off the bucket list....I'll probably start a storm thread in the next day or two. 0z EPS...I'm really diggin' the expansive coverage of snow over Canada...nature laying down the foundation... Looking down the road, towards the start of the Holiday season...is that foundation going to support a colder pattern??? LR GEFS....Warm Arctic = Cold CONUS....Bonus = Snowy times??? The signals are certainly pointing towards a wintry pattern, unlike we have seen in recent years. I think the last time we had a cold Thanksgiving holiday week was back in '13 or '14. I do remember one of those years putting up my Christmas Lights and it was pretty darn cold outside. How about the Euro Weeklies from Monday? Trending even colder/snowier as we get closer to the aforementioned period above... 30-day snow mean... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 This is going to be fascinating to see if the current snow pack up in the U.P. will last all the way into the Spring. If the colder temps continue, I don't see why not. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 06z Gfs 384hrs out shows some snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Tom said: Boy, are the models flip flopping run-to-run and the blocking is certainly adding another layer of confusion for them. For instance, you can see the trend in the 0z GEFS over the past 7 runs. The culprit...a stronger Archipelago HP and stronger western U.S. ridge. The year of high lat blocking is playing a role...I'm also seeing more ensemble members shifting SE. The year of the "SE trend"? Hmmmm...could be something to watch in the models as the season of storm tracking has begun. This is going to be my first legit system of the season that officially kicks off "storm tracking"...check that off the bucket list....I'll probably start a storm thread in the next day or two. 0z EPS...I'm really diggin' the expansive coverage of snow over Canada...nature laying down the foundation... Looking down the road, towards the start of the Holiday season...is that foundation going to support a colder pattern??? LR GEFS....Warm Arctic = Cold CONUS....Bonus = Snowy times??? The signals are certainly pointing towards a wintry pattern, unlike we have seen in recent years. I think the last time we had a cold Thanksgiving holiday week was back in '13 or '14. I do remember one of those years putting up my Christmas Lights and it was pretty darn cold outside. How about the Euro Weeklies from Monday? Trending even colder/snowier as we get closer to the aforementioned period above... 30-day snow mean... Tom, the last several runs on the GFS have it quite warm here in KC. Lots of 60's and some 70's....I don't think we had one sub-freezing night in there on the 06z run this morning. Beautiful fall weather. Thanks for all your LR thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 Models don't seem to have much of a clue beyond the weekend/early-week warmth. There is no consistency later next week and beyond. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 hour ago, MIKEKC said: Tom, the last several runs on the GFS have it quite warm here in KC. Lots of 60's and some 70's....I don't think we had one sub-freezing night in there on the 06z run this morning. Beautiful fall weather. Thanks for all your LR thoughts. Individual Op runs will not have a good handle on the pattern bc of the new blocking patterns that are poised to set up next week. Follow the ensembles as guidance rather than any individual op run. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 Detroit already has seen its first flakes of the season. Snowflakes were falling on Nov 2nd, 2021 and first freeze of 29F occurred on Nov 3rd, 2021. Also, the color here is spectacular. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 Radar showing a few echoes to my west. Looks ominous, but good to see that blue color just west of my area. Temps are at 34F under mostly cloudy skies. It looks and feels like snow outside. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Niko said: Radar showing a few echoes to my west. Looks ominous, but good to see that blue color just west of my area. Temps are at 34F under mostly cloudy skies. It looks and feels like snow outside. I had that same feeling this morning…it’s like you could smell it in the air. Won’t be long till we are shoveling! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.