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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ensembles are still all over the place with how much cold air will get wrapped into this storm.  Hope it goes in a snowy direction.

They are.

This storm has eyes for the MN Metro area and even parts of Iowa. Yby has a potential amigo. All you need is a SE trend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 minutes ago, Niko said:

They are.

This storm has eyes for the MN Metro area and even parts of Iowa. Yby has a potential amigo. All you need is a SE trend.

@Beltrami Island should be excited.  I think it's important that this storm at least produce for some up north, it would concern me a little if it didn't.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Beltrami Island should be excited.  I think it's important that this storm at least produce for some up north, it would concern me a little if it didn't.

All depends on how strong the blocking is next week. This will play a major roll.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After the morning chill subsided yesterday, the SW breeze really felt nice and drove temps into the low 50's pretty quickly.  The leaves are literally dropping off the trees like it's "raining leaves".  The Maples are very vibrant around town as we enjoy peak colors on this absolutely gorgeous weekend that nature is dialing up.  Perfect weekend to get out and enjoy this beautiful Indian Summer wx! 

I spent some time outside yesterday with my yardwork chores and plan on finishing it up this weekend.  Low/Mid 60's are a good bet through Monday.  The streak of BN days will end at 6 days today.  I just saw a graphic of last year's Nov heat wave and ORD had 7 days in the 70's.  That was one crazy warm spell.  

image.png

 

 

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Gale's of November???  There's a storm brewing and it has meaningful implications for many reasons as mother nature does something fascinating next weekend.  Almost to the date, when the Edmund Fitzgerald sank on Lake Superior back on Nov 10th 1975 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuzTkGyxkYI....we will be tracking a W GL's storm system.  How will it form and where does it track is TBD.  Nevertheless, I find it intriguing we may be dealing with a similar situation of a powerful mid November storm that snaps the wx pattern right into Winter up north.  The pattern ahead looks wild.  Pretty friggin' awesome to see the modeling heading towards a mid month flip towards all the analogs that have been suggesting a cold Novembrrrr.  The one that stands out is Nov 1995.  Iirc, @jaster220 @westMJim mentioned a few times on here of some old school GL's powerhouse storms back then.  

Anyhow, the Euro is struggling again and showing not much of a storm for the northern Sub while the GFS/UKIE are pointing towards a northern stream trough tracking along the U.S./Canadian border into the Upper MW on Vet's Day.  I'm leaning towards the GFS and its GEFS members.  It's been rock steady in the long range and as we come into the mid range period, we see more members suggesting a Sub 990mb storm around the GL's.

 

image.png

 

The 0z EPS snow mean looks good up north...lay down the foundation where it means the most for seeding the cold down the road.  Hopefully no snow holes this year like we have seen in past years.  Is this the year when everything comes togethers...finally???  One can hope it does for us winter wx enthusiasts.

1.png

 

Speaking of Winter, it's coming, it's no joke, it may be here sooner than we thought....both GEFS/EPS are indicating a clear Arctic connection with blocking in all the right places to deliver an early onslaught of Arctic Air into the Sub.  Man, ya'll better get ready for a special delivery from Ol' Man Winter.

1.gif

 

2.gif

 

 

0z EPS 5-day 500mb mean...now that looks pretty...

5.png

 

All of the LR clues are in remarkable agreement, none more so than the LR forecasting method I have been drawn to use and that is monitoring where the warm/cold pools have formed up in the Strat.  IMO, if you study the animation below, using a 3-4 week lead time, it can suggest a 500mb pattern.  For example, at the beginning of this animation right around Oct 9th/10th it shows deep blues right over the "heartland" and GL's region.  Fast forward 3-4 weeks and you enter the period we just went through that delivered the stretch of cold temps from Halloween till the 5th of this month.  Then watch how those "blues" dissipate quickly for a few days post 15th...to me, this is the warmer period we are currently entering, followed by what will be a deep trough that will inundate the entire eastern CONUS.  Does anyone else see what I'm seeing?? 

I'll end with this comment...using the Strat as guidance, for those yearning for Snow...you'll be giving thanks to Ol' Man Winter right about the time when we all give Thanks, as a nation, during Thanksgiving week...

temp30anim.gif

 

image.png

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@Tom

Hey bud, you beat me to it wrt the posting of "The Wreck.." you tube vid. There's more than one out there now, but that song rendition is the best imho. I believe it to be a later studio track (for the album) with a slower tempo that allows the lyrics to be absorbed by the listener better. It also has much more refined instrumental interludes and some nice guitar rhythm. I recently heard the original radio version which I still remember hearing on Casey Kasem's American Top-40 in the spring of '76 right when the tune had peaked at #5. I think that original cut was rushed to market quickly for several reasons I won't get into here. I consider it to be the "anthem of the Great Lakes" and still take pride in the american side (aka The Mitt) even tho this song was written by our neighbor from Canada. I was also fortunate to see Mr. Lightfoot perform this song live at a concert here in SEMI back in 2007. This was after he'd come out of that long coma and started touring again. Didn't want to miss the chance if you know what I mean. It's amazing to me that a tune about a shipwreck in (what at that time was) an obscure corner of our nation could be a top-5 hit in popular culture music (SMH). While a canadien treasure, Lightfoot did study music in America (Los Angeles). Anyhow, can't help but think of those poor seamen..they didn't have a chance that fateful evening as the gales of November wreaked havoc on the surface of Gitchee Gumee.

This caught my attention yesterday. Not sure if it's a sign of anything, but it's pretty unique to see the sunshine penninsula slammed head-to-toe with a non-tropical rain-maker. Only the Storm of the Century in '93 really comes to mind.

     

 

 

2021-11-05 7am Surf.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Hey bud, you beat me to it wrt the posting of "The Wreck.." you tube vid. There's more than one out there now, but that song rendition is the best imho. I believe it to be a later studio track (for the album) with a slower tempo that allows the lyrics to be absorbed by the listener better. It also has much more refined instrumental interludes and some nice guitar rhythm. I recently heard the original radio version which I still remember hearing on Casey Kasem's American Top-40 in the spring of '76 right when the tune had peaked at #5. I think that original cut was rushed to market quickly for several reasons I won't get into here. I consider it to be the "anthem of the Great Lakes" and still take pride in the american side (aka The Mitt) even tho this song was written by our neighbor from Canada. I was also fortunate to see Mr. Lightfoot perform this song live at a concert here in SEMI back in 2007. This was after he'd come out of that long coma and started touring again. Didn't want to miss the chance if you know what I mean. It's amazing to me that a tune about a shipwreck in (what at that time was) an obscure corner of our nation could be a top-5 hit in popular culture music (SMH). While a canadien treasure, Lightfoot did study music in America (Los Angeles). Anyhow, can't help but think of those poor seamen..they didn't have a chance that fateful evening as the gales of November wreaked havoc on the surface of Gitchee Gumee.

This caught my attention yesterday. Not sure if it's a sign of anything, but it's pretty unique to see the sunshine penninsula slammed head-to-toe with a non-tropical rain-maker. Only the Storm of the Century in '93 really comes to mind.

     

 

 

2021-11-05 7am Surf.jpg

I agree with you Jaster, this song is one that emboldens the history of the infamous ship wreck.  I’m glad to hear we are on the same “wave length” this morning.  What’s even more crazy, I was literally going to add the Super Storm of ‘93 to my post above but decided to leave it out!  The pattern is so similar!  “Great Minds Think Alike”…it’s fascinating how the universe connects us all like-minded people.  This happens quiet often to me on this forum with various other posters. 

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23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

^^That EPS cold blob right over the midwest!

Yeah, we're screwed. (unless you revel in watching your bodily extremities turn various shades of blue). This current cold wave reminding me of 13-14. It just comes and squats on you, not at all eager to move on. Saw 20s on my car thermo for the first time this am. December will be punishing.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/25/2021 at 6:23 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Novembrrrrr! 😁

I better get everything all finalized this weekend.   Not much to do. We’re practically shirt sleeves this afternoon.  
Gorgeous clear blue skies bright sun. 
I’m going to enjoy it while I can!!

🤠👍

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Dear God that Euro temp anomaly is a massive…. 1.5 to 2 degrees below normal! I’m covering the house in insulation now!

Epic normal winter like conditions in November/December!   It’s like they blotted out the sun!  Bout to go sit outside in the above normal sunshine.   

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Just got back in from my stand up jet skit, water is in the 50s. I hope Euro pans out, I can make it out on the lake this Wednesday then one week later be snowboarding if I'm really lucky. Accuweather monthly is usually garbage but they have me snowboarding the 21st or so. My life priorities are the best.

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CFSv2 looks cold for the rest of November after Wednesday

1636934400-NIYqdnWkaIg.png

1637366400-ScYdos8liOw.png

Thanksgiving week

1638316800-fLt7M1pGYRs.png

Precip for Thanksgiving week, you gotta like possibilities.

1638230400-sYa9JrAJHSI.png

Yes sir, after the midweek period, temps start getting colder and they stay cold too thereafter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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14 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Dear God that Euro temp anomaly is a massive…. 1.5 to 2 degrees below normal! I’m covering the house in insulation now!

Ha, we'll see about that....if you know anything about how to interpret the EPS in the LR, then you should know if its showing a 2 degree BN 5-day mean 10+ days out, then you should probably keep an eye out for the idea of a colder trend.  On top of that, I don't think anyone on here expects a high temp of +10F (true arctic air) in mid/late Nov except for maybe @Beltrami Island @FAR_Weather and those up north.  I'll bet ya without a doubt, that if this cold snap that is positioned to come during the week of the 21st (Thanksgiving week), I'm sure your local NWS office (and/or surrounding offices) will have mention of either one, or, all of the following...1) Polar/Arctic Air Connection  2) Unseasonable Cold 3) Significant Snowfall (your area or nearby).  Let's see if I'm right and if your sarcasm (as well as @Stacsh) is bonafide.  I like a challenge...

 

Meantime, we welcome Standard Time and the wx models will officially come in an hour earlier from now till Spring '22....ahhh, tis' the season folks!

 

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While in the spirit of storm tracking, why not dive into the LR pattern and try to sniff out some more storm systems, ay??  Alright, wouldn't it be ideal to track a slow moving, potential bowling ball right around Turkey Day???  The clues I'm seeing are indeed suggesting this to be a potential Holiday traveling nightmare for parts of the central CONUS.  I'll show you what I'm seeing and why I believe this to be a storm that comes out of the "Slot", where this year's LRC has been setting up.  Could it be a CO Low?  Very possible.  TX Pan Handle Hook?  Maybe...but the idea of a west/east system is looking better.  So, at this range, over 2+ weeks out...my call is for a Thanksgiving (+/- 1 or 2 days) winter storm.  Let's dive in...

First off, using the BSR rule as guidance, notice the "Omega Block" look NW of the Aleutians over the Bearing Sea...this correlates to an Omega Block over western Canada.

image.png

 

Now, pay attn to the SLP around the 4th/5th that is tracking towards the Aleutians from the SW.  This is an ominous #SWFlow storm track whereby I foresee a system around the 4 corners region prior to Thanksgiving and tracking slowly into the central Plains/MW by the time we approach Thanksgiving or just after.  This pattern correlates to a slow mover with blocking over the top.  Hudson Bay ridge?  Very possible.

 

1.gif

 

It's not over after that bc there could be a secondary piece rotating around the base of a large trough (one of this year's LRC signature patterns) that will form in Southern/Southeast Canada and target the MW/GL's region.  I gotta tell ya, I'm extremely fascinated and intrigued about where this winter pattern is heading.  My goodness, I think we all are in for a treat this holiday season....there's just no way Dec ends up being a bust.  I'm all in.  That's all for now...enjoy another stunning Indian Summer day!

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

While in the spirit of storm tracking, why not dive into the LR pattern and try to sniff out some more storm systems, ay??  Alright, wouldn't it be ideal to track a slow moving, potential bowling ball right around Turkey Day???  The clues I'm seeing are indeed suggesting this to be a potential Holiday traveling nightmare for parts of the central CONUS.  I'll show you what I'm seeing and why I believe this to be a storm that comes out of the "Slot", where this year's LRC has been setting up.  Could it be a CO Low?  Very possible.  TX Pan Handle Hook?  Maybe...but the idea of a west/east system is looking better.  So, at this range, over 2+ weeks out...my call is for a Thanksgiving (+/- 1 or 2 days) winter storm.  Let's dive in...

First off, using the BSR rule as guidance, notice the "Omega Block" look NW of the Aleutians over the Bearing Sea...this correlates to an Omega Block over western Canada.

image.png

 

Now, pay attn to the SLP around the 4th/5th that is tracking towards the Aleutians from the SW.  This is an ominous #SWFlow storm track whereby I foresee a system around the 4 corners region prior to Thanksgiving and tracking slowly into the central Plains/MW by the time we approach Thanksgiving or just after.  This pattern correlates to a slow mover with blocking over the top.  Hudson Bay ridge?  Very possible.

 

 1.gif

 

It's not over after that bc there could be a secondary piece rotating around the base of a large trough (one of this year's LRC signature patterns) that will form in Southern/Southeast Canada and target the MW/GL's region.  I gotta tell ya, I'm extremely fascinated and intrigued about where this winter pattern is heading.  My goodness, I think we all are in for a treat this holiday season....there's just no way Dec ends up being a bust.  I'm all in.  That's all for now...enjoy another stunning Indian Summer day!

 

 

4 corners system with blocking over the top sounds familiar, signs of cycle 2.  What your describing would line up real well with a storm we experienced on Oct 11th.  Looking like a 50 day cycle.

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I hope this cold pans out, I was able to downsize my snowboard boots from 11.5E to 10EEE, which is absolutely huge for a snowboarder, your toes and heels hang off the board a lot less and they get caught in the snow a lot less too. I've been salivating at them for about a month just waiting. The earlier it opens in November the better, the last half of December is packed because people are on vacation and I get a nice window of having the place mostly to myself. Just need some really cold, like in the 10s overnight, then not much above freezing during the day.

Mr-Freeze.gif

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

4 corners system with blocking over the top sounds familiar, signs of cycle 2.  What your describing would line up real well with a storm we experienced on Oct 11th.  Looking like a 50 day cycle.

In all honesty, its a tough call at this stage bc we have had many storms tracking out of the 4 corners this season.  The difference showing up this month is the status of the EPO which is forecast to go (-) and we didn't have that in Oct, literally the entire month.  In other words, @MIKEKC this is an example of how the teleconnections can influence the LRC and differentiate from one cycle to the other.  On top of that, I'm also seeing so many similar storms tracking across North America/Atlantic Ocean that line up with systems back in Oct to make the process even more difficult to figure out.   

Regarding the cycle length, I'm currently leaning towards a shorter one around 42 (ish) days at the moment.  If I see the models pick up on a system near W Mexico around the 17th, then I'll be more confident of that date.  Lot's to figure out over the next 10-15 days.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Ha, we'll see about that....if you know anything about how to interpret the EPS in the LR, then you should know if its showing a 2 degree BN 5-day mean 10+ days out, then you should probably keep an eye out for the idea of a colder trend.  On top of that, I don't think anyone on here expects a high temp of +10F (true arctic air) in mid/late Nov except for maybe @Beltrami Island @FAR_Weather and those up north.  I'll bet ya without a doubt, that if this cold snap that is positioned to come during the week of the 21st (Thanksgiving week), I'm sure your local NWS office (and/or surrounding offices) will have mention of either one, or, all of the following...1) Polar/Arctic Air Connection  2) Unseasonable Cold 3) Significant Snowfall (your area or nearby).  Let's see if I'm right and if your sarcasm (as well as @Stacsh) is bonafide.  I like a challenge...

 

Meantime, we welcome Standard Time and the wx models will officially come in an hour earlier from now till Spring '22....ahhh, tis' the season folks!

 

I too like to live dangerously…

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It'll for sure be turning much colder by late week. 12z euro has some wrap around wet flakes, but it looks the wait for snow will probably continue in eastern Nebraska. 

Edit: average first accumulation is around Nov 20th, but I've become used to the October events 😆

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

00Z GFS brings a clipper into the picture after the Veterans Day storm.

Your going to be in for a treat the next 3-4 weeks my friend!  #buildtheglacier

This is what you wanna see up north across the border...snow depth!  This is just the beginning of a northern stream wave train....

3.png

 

The next 2 weeks will feature an explosion of snow cover across Canada....that's pretty...

 

1.png

 

 

0z GEFS look very similar and building up a widespread "field of white gold" up north and creeping down S into the lower 48.  This is about as good as it gets for mother nature to cooperate.

image.png

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Tis the Season y'all: Ma Nature to bring "Holiday Spirit" this upcoming weekend here in SMI.

The occlusion process carries the moisture axis eastward by Friday
morning followed by a pronounced dry slot and a step down in surface
temperatures. Moisture wrapping around the upper low arrives Friday
afternoon with additional showers before the upper low slides
overhead to help cool the profile enough for a light rain/snow mix
Friday night into Saturday.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another mild day in store for today. Temps could approach the upper 60s in spots.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The overnight low here at my house was 36. The official overnight low was warmer at the airport at 41. At this time it is clear and 48 here and the last reading at GRR was 50. Yesterdays official high of 65 at Grand Rapids was one of the warmest on record. The record high of 71 was set just last year the high reached 69 in 1916, 68 in 1899, 67 in 1924 and 1915, 66 in 1945, 1975 and 2016. And then 65 yesterday it was also 65 in 1937, 1938 and 2009. All in all a very warm November 7th My birthday was yesterday and 2021 has been the 4th warmest in my lifetime.

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Hope to see a coating on the grass this next weekend from LES.  My almost three year old twin boys will love it!  Not sure they remember snow from last year.  Looks like a roller coaster of temps for the next 2 weeks.  Couple big storms traversing the Mid-West.  

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