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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Some rain & snowshowers mixing w or changing to all to wet snow for this upcoming "Hybrid" system on Sunday. No accumulations expected. Temps most likely not getting outta the 30s for high temps. Roads could get slippery during nighttime hours.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per NOAA:

Strong WAA will push highs Thursday back into the low 60s
before the cold front sweeps through late in the day bringing
showers and the end to the recent mild trend. Unsettled weather will
last through the weekend with scattered showers possibly becoming
mixed with snow as cold air advection strengthens across the the
Great Lakes.

The upcoming weekend is looking very "November-like." Will definitely remind folks that the holidays are approaching.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Clinton, are you seeing signs of the SW Flow pattern cycling around the 21st???  This pattern then leads us into Thanksgiving week where we could see some real active weather.  It's looking like cycle 2 could be roughly in the 42 day range.  I think by next week we'll be seeing better data to confirm this cycle length.  Man, does that 06z GFS run look wild!  My goodness...that's the slow moving bowling ball the BSR is suggesting and could correlate with any one of the storm systems we saw in early/mid Oct.  

 

High over Low....how big can this system go????  I'm only showing this animation bc it fits the pattern to what I was eluding to the other day....

1.gif

 

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12 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, are you seeing signs of the SW Flow pattern cycling around the 21st???  This pattern then leads us into Thanksgiving week where we could see some real active weather.  It's looking like cycle 2 could be roughly in the 42 day range.  I think by next week we'll be seeing better data to confirm this cycle length.  Man, does that 06z GFS run look wild!  My goodness...that's the slow moving bowling ball the BSR is suggesting and could correlate with any one of the storm systems we saw in early/mid Oct.  

 

High over Low....how big can this system go????  I'm only showing this animation bc it fits the pattern to what I was eluding to the other day....

1.gif

 

It looks like it's heading that way, though I believe the cycle length is about a week longer.  0z Euro Control even showed the cut-off low down by the Gulf, very similar to what we had around Oct 4th,5th.  If will be fun to watch it evolve and Thanksgiving week or weekend should have exciting weather.

1637496000-T5AQs3mBsdk.png

1637496000-0dfA37rbrNg.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The weather the last few days has been great, yesterday temps toped out in the low 70's.  I most likely won't see temps that warm again until March.

It’s been a welcomed stretch of Indian Summer wx in my book.  I did my last mow of the season at the shortest level possible.  It’s like a well trimmed golf course!  Lol, but now the leaves have to all fall off the trees which I don’t see happening till prob after Thanksgiving this year.  Late final clean up for sure.

 

 

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We had two warm days in a row with highs in the 60's In the last 30 years there have only been 4 years with OUT highs in the 60's or 70's in November. And in the last 70 years there have only been 6 Novembers when it has not gotten into the 60's and highs of 70 or better is actually rather common. The overnight low both here at my house and at the airport was 41 at this time it is cloudy and 48 here the last reading at GRR was 45.

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

but now the leaves have to all fall off the trees which I don’t see happening till prob after Thanksgiving this year

It is the same here. There are a lot of leaves on the trees and I still have some potted flowers blooming that I did put in the garage before last weeks freeze. Not sure if I will do the same this weekend just to see how long I can keep them in bloom. 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

It’s been a welcomed stretch of Indian Summer wx in my book.  I did my last mow of the season at the shortest level possible.  It’s like a well trimmed golf course!  Lol, but now the leaves have to all fall off the trees which I don’t see happening till prob after Thanksgiving this year.  Late final clean up for sure.

 

 

I'm going to regret not putting up Christmas lights last weekend, this weekend I fly down to Florida for a friends wedding.  I'm likely going to freeze by the time I get to it. 

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On this date in 1913: A massive storm that became known as The White Hurricane sank numerous ships on the Great Lakes and caused millions of dollars in damage across Michigan. This storm was one of the deadliest and most destructive natural disasters to hit the Great Lakes, killing more than 250 people while wrecking 19 ships and stranding 19 others. The financial loss in vessels alone was nearly five million dollars, or about 100 million dollars at current value. Lost cargo, such as coal, iron ore, and grain was estimated at over 68,000 tons.

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm going to regret not putting up Christmas lights last weekend, this weekend I fly down to Florida for a friends wedding.  I'm likely going to freeze by the time I get to it. 

I put mine up last weekend and my kids were giving me grief about it! I'd rather do it when it's 70 degrees vs waiting and risking having to do it in the 20s.

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A lot of dense fog out there, along w a white ground. Combo of frost and ice fog as temps hovered at 32F this morning. Beautiful November postcard pic!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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With clear skies and light winds the temperature fell to 27 both here and officially at GRR. Here at my house that is the coldest so far this season. While there are still a lot of leaves on the trees in my area they are falling at a good clip at this time. The departure is now just -0.3 for November at Grand Rapids.

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On 11/7/2021 at 8:44 AM, Tom said:

In all honesty, its a tough call at this stage bc we have had many storms tracking out of the 4 corners this season.  The difference showing up this month is the status of the EPO which is forecast to go (-) and we didn't have that in Oct, literally the entire month.  In other words, @MIKEKC this is an example of how the teleconnections can influence the LRC and differentiate from one cycle to the other.  On top of that, I'm also seeing so many similar storms tracking across North America/Atlantic Ocean that line up with systems back in Oct to make the process even more difficult to figure out.   

Regarding the cycle length, I'm currently leaning towards a shorter one around 42 (ish) days at the moment.  If I see the models pick up on a system near W Mexico around the 17th, then I'll be more confident of that date.  Lot's to figure out over the next 10-15 days.

@MIKEKC this is an example of how the teleconnections can influence the LRC and differentiate from one cycle to the other.

Gotcha! Totally understand that! But, how can you predict that months out like Gary suggests he can. Actual weather at the surface, the most important part of weather...right?

For example, The LRC started around Oct. 6th. KC opened up with 9  days of well above average weather with 4 different storm systems. What will this do in the 2nd and 3rd cycle, the brunt of winter?? Will we be stormy, but not snowy due to the "cycling" of the pattern which would suggest a 'warmer than average pattern"  Or will this period be super cold due to different teleconnections? 

If a pattern is cycling, wouldn't the same makeup of the pattern be present at the time of the re-cycle? IF not, how is it cycling the same as the previous cycle. 

I guess my question is, what will the October 6th through October 14th cycle 2 version bring to KC? We had 4 storm systems and well above average temps. And, when is that second cycle start? Maybe you have not seen enough to make that call?? Gary claimed a few years back on a December snowstorm here in KC  that he knew since October that this storm would hit. 

Once we complete Nov. 17th, per the latest GFS and what observed weather we have seen since Nov. 6th, we here in KC will see 8-9 of those days above average on temps and 6 of those days 10+ above average. We just spent the last 4 days in the 70's here in KC. (big warm-up forecasted again early next week) Another very warm stretch overall in what I would still call cycle 1? 

If the teleconnections were not favorable in these above examples for cooler than average temps,  how/why would you forecast the teleconnections to be different next time if the pattern is indeed cycling. 

 

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11 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

@MIKEKC this is an example of how the teleconnections can influence the LRC and differentiate from one cycle to the other.

Gotcha! Totally understand that! But, how can you predict that months out like Gary suggests he can. Actual weather at the surface, the most important part of weather...right?

For example, The LRC started around Oct. 6th. KC opened up with 9  days of well above average weather with 4 different storm systems. What will this do in the 2nd and 3rd cycle, the brunt of winter?? Will we be stormy, but not snowy due to the "cycling" of the pattern which would suggest a 'warmer than average pattern"  Or will this period be super cold due to different teleconnections? 

If a pattern is cycling, wouldn't the same makeup of the pattern be present at the time of the re-cycle? IF not, how is it cycling the same as the previous cycle. 

I guess my question is, what will the October 6th through October 14th cycle 2 version bring to KC? We had 4 storm systems and well above average temps. And, when is that second cycle start? Maybe you have not seen enough to make that call?? Gary claimed a few years back on a December snowstorm here in KC  that he knew since October that this storm would hit. 

Once we complete Nov. 17th, per the latest GFS and what observed weather we have seen since Nov. 6th, we here in KC will see 8-9 of those days above average on temps and 6 of those days 10+ above average. We just spent the last 4 days in the 70's here in KC. (big warm-up forecasted again early next week) Another very warm stretch overall in what I would still call cycle 1? 

If the teleconnections were not favorable in these above examples for cooler than average temps,  how/why would you forecast the teleconnections to be different next time if the pattern is indeed cycling. 

 

In my personal opinion, I do not believe teleconnections such as the (NAO/AO/EPO/WPO) cycle throughout the year as does the overall 500mb pattern across the N.H.  I can see why you are hung up on the idea of the general wx being overall "warm and wet" in cycle 1 and how that should translate into a warm pattern in cycle 2.  Over the years I have learned that's just not how nature works as the jet strengthens and weakens given the time of year.  I opined way back in Sept that when I saw the models suggesting a massive ridge in E/NE Canada in Oct that would translate into a beautiful blocking pattern in future cycles during the Winter.  Reason being, when you have HP in early Autumn (when there is no snow OTG and the Sun has set in the Arctic) it usually warms up bc the ground warms up.  On the flip side, in the Winter and Spring, when you have snow OTG and HP across Canada it will suggest "seeding cold" into the pattern.  I actually learned this from JB many years ago.  In the summer, you will likely see the pattern demonstrate extreme warmth or prob a Heat Wave wherever this HP system forms.  During different times of the year, the pressure pattern will result in much different temp outcomes.  Hope this helps.

 

 

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I'm seeing a lot of cold over the next ten days on the Euro.  Models have become very brief with the "warm" surge next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Now we only rise to the mid 50s Tuesday night before going back down.

Unfortunately, the late tree leaf drop means I will have to do all my leaf collection during much colder weather over the next week or two.  The neighbor's huge pin oak is just about to dump its leaves.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm proud to be an American and this day reminds me of how lucky we are to have so many patriots that have served the armed forces.  Unfortunately, there are those that have paid the ultimate sacrifice and we give thanks to all of these brave souls.  With that being said, this song always gives me the chills.

Have a splendid Veteran's Day everyone!  #GodBlessTheUSA 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KoXt9pZLGM

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

GFS continues to advertise a large storm system around the 21st and brings some very cold air behind it.  

..the ONLY advertising I can tolerate, thank you!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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24 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Just had about 30 seconds of big, heavy wet snowflakes in the central part of KC.  They were almost melted, but definitely mushy snowflakes.  It's currently 54 degrees. 

 

5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary just made a video with the snow coming into his car window. Wow in the 50's and snowing!!

Happening here also I have never seen snow when it's this warm!

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We're running 4.3 degrees above normal so far for Novemberrrrr.

Today was blustery with the wind but still was above normal with a high of 54. Tomorrow is going to be the worst of the next 7 days with a high only in the mid 30s with winds gusting over 40 mph, but then it warms back up to near or above normal highs heading into next week with 60s looking likely on Tuesday. Normal high is now down to 52 degrees here.

We've also had only 1 day of precip so far this month and that was yesterday when I received .29" of rain.

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46 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

We're running 4.3 degrees above normal so far for Novemberrrrr.

Today was blustery with the wind but still was above normal with a high of 54. Tomorrow is going to be the worst of the next 7 days with a high only in the mid 30s with winds gusting over 40 mph, but then it warms back up to near or above normal highs heading into next week with 60s looking likely on Tuesday. Normal high is now down to 52 degrees here.

We've also had only 1 day of precip so far this month and that was yesterday when I received .29" of rain.

Cold is over-rated

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Rare fall squall reported at Cedar Rapids.  Son just reported a 55mph gust W of DSM about 20 miles. Most don't know the true definition of a squall so here goes- " A strong wind characterized by a sudden onset, in which the wind speed increases by at least 16 knots and is sustained at 22 knots or more for at least 1 minute"

image.png.c4d7db85a167008a419e055d1f0454aa.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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@westMJimKeep an eye on LES this weekend. Not sure if you will have the correct wind direction that you typically need for any substantial accumulations in yby, but this colder air rushing over the warm lake waters this weekend will mean business for some.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Big burst of very hvy rain and strong winds (gusts of 35 to 40mph) just rolled on by, as the CF is entering my area. Did not last too long. Skies will clear soon and temps plummet into the 30s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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