November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Bumped up to a high of 70 now in my grids! Short lived warmth before it falls back into the mid 40s on Wednesday 

Roller coaster season

[Grizzcoat]

Euro with a Blizzard. To bad it's at HR 216. It's also back to having much below normal temps, but seems to be flip flopping around. I think the issue is having the storm in the first place to wrap in the much colder air behind it as the cold air is just lagging in Canada on the recent warmer run of the Euro.

[westMJim]

This morning there is light snow falling but with a temperature of 33 there is just a trace of snow on the ground here. As this area is in a WWA I guess it is the curse of the WWA.

 

[Tom]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Whether this ends up being accurate or not, I've learned over the years here that it's never a good sign when Major Tom goes west. Especially for me since I'm in the same general storm track-way as Chi-town. The rare exception is when a clipper comes in from the NW and just misses his backyard but gets SMI. Kinda like tomorrow's event, and that biggie back in Dec of 2017 that gave this region 8-12"

Jaster, it's funny you mentioned that but this year I'm really just coming out here to spend some quality time with fam and soak in one more opportunity of summer time warmth before I head back into the "freezer" thats coming.  I know I'll miss some snow opportunities but thats ok.  I got my first taste of snow for the season the day before I left.  I checked that off the bucket list.  It's crazy to see how many snow birds have flown into town.  When I was here back in Sept, the traffic at the local stores were meager.  Yesterday, after I dropped off my luggage at my place, I went to the stores and they were buzzing.  Fountain Hills is known to increase its population by nearly 50% in the "snow bird" season.  It certainly feels like that, if not more this year due to the high demand in real estate!  Properties here are sky rocketing in value....but that's a whole other story.

 

Speaking of stories, thanks for sharing the Edmund Fitz one above.  I'm a history bug like you and enjoy learning about our past.  On the other hand, what is history (pun intended) is the warmth the models flashed for a day or two.  Due to popular demand, it appears that nature is going to deliver timely snow chances come Thanksgiving week.  I'll dive into this in a post this morning.

PHX topped out at 88F yesterday, but what was interesting is how fast the temps dropped into the upper 60's as the sun set.  I had the A/C on during the afternoon and then by 7:00pm I went on the patio deck and was like "when the heck did the cold front hit"?  I had to chuckle for a sec bc out here they consider "cold fronts" when the temp drops 5 degrees in the warm season...anyway, we are heading up into the upper 80's again today and tomorrow before the temps "slide" down into the low 80's.  #Perfection

 

 

[Tom]

Alright, alright...the sun is about to poke above the horizon here in the "Valley of the Sun".  It's a glorious, calm and clear morning with a temp of 61F.  The sun rises here at 6:58am local time (right about now as I type).  Gosh, I so grateful to be able to come out here and enjoy this beautiful state.  There is something about the energy out here that I feel and enjoy.

What I do enjoy the most this time of year is tracking snow storms and arctic outbreaks.  Both, are featured to hit the Sub later next week and agreeing with my long standing call (post 20th).  When the models were advertising warmth, I went against popular demand, but once again, the LR tools I have been using in forecasting appear to be coming together.  Who's going to get snow??  Let me dive right in...

Not only the 0z EPS, but the 0z GEFS are strikingly similar in the placement of where the snow will fall over the course of the next 2 weeks.  Focusing in on Thanksgiving week, there are 2 systems, but the one that has perked my attn is right around the 21st/22nd.  This system looks to shift the entire North American pattern into very cold/wintry one for the holiday week.  Giddy up!

 

The Novembrrrr Chill is on "Z" way...the GL's are going to fire up and you guys out there are gonna get blasted.  Most of the individual ensemble members are on fire and showing significant snowfall.  Winter is coming out of the gates fast and furious around the GL's/MW region this year.  Iirc, it was the Plains that had the faster starts in recent years, but I guess now nature is balancing things out.

0z EPS 5-day mean 500mb pattern...classic blocking gets things rocking...how long does it last??  I still feel there will be somewhat of an early Dec pullback but it will really depend on how far the western ridge pokes east into the Sub. 

 

 

[jaster220]

Quote

Winter is coming out of the gates fast and furious around the GL's/MW region this year.  Iirc, it was the Plains that had the faster starts in recent years, but I guess now nature is balancing things out.

@Tom,

As I've been watching moderate snow falling this morning whitening things up (0.5" on grass and rooftops) I wanted to say congrats on the call for an early onset. Any measurable snow before 11/15 here is early. And this isn't just a flurry or mood flakes. Snow has been falling steadily for hours now.

That would be a nice OBS for here a month from now.

Just 3 wks after endless summer (aka 70+ daytime highs) around here, we're measuring our first snowfall. This is not the Plains. We don't flip the way they can. You take a bunch of heat for "hyping cold" and I'll even admit that there are times I'm like "what is he thinking?" lol. Anyways, for mby at least you've scored bigly with LR calls nobody else is risking! Again, congrats amigo. Cheers to many more LR scores going forward.

Now, onto Thanksgiving week's potential. Looking like it's time to buckle-up and find my snow brush for my car too..

[OmahaSnowFan]

On 10/23/2021 at 4:08 AM, Tom said:

I usually don't start a thread this early but this year will be different.  In many ways, this month is going to be an impactful one for much of our Nation.  I'm inclined to believe there will be several bouts of Severe Wx accompanied by the battle with Ol' Man Winter.  What is Nov '21 going to be remembered for?  Is Winter coming out of the gates early??  What will the holiday season look like?  This is the time of year when I personally start to enjoy tracking autumn/winter storms as our Sub comes together and members become more active.  I'm excited about what I see coming down the road for this month.  

 

Alright, alright, alright...I've done enough digging/studying and deeply focusing on some intriguing data that continues to support the long standing idea for a big reversal heading into November.  All systems are ready to "GO" as we open up the door to Novembrrrrr....that's right, it's looking very likely that just as we open up the month, in a timely fashion, our seasons first big shot of early season cold is on the way.  Ya'll know how I enjoy seeing the wx line up to specific calendar dates.  Right on Cue, the entire North American 500mb flips a switch from Ridging across central/eastern Canada to what I foresee will be the next Long Term Long Wave trough of the developing LRC....Hudson Bay Vortex....

 

7

Well, this certainly flipped pretty quick...last 6 runs off the GEFS...opening week of November is going to FEEL cold after such a warm Oct.  As the fastest cooling month of the year opens up, temps also appear to follow suit and take a dive... 

 

0z EPS...

 

 

What about storms???  Oh boy, there are plenty on my calendar in what will be a series of systems coming out of the SW...aka "SW FLOW" where this years LRC's golden hot spot has set up.  Using the BSR as guidance, there is data to support the idea that during the week of the 7th, I'm seeing back-to-back southern stream systems coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region.  "Cutter Week Special" Round #2???  Just like in early Oct, in similar fashion, either this is another harmonic beat of the LRC or maybe a secondary active part of the entire cycle.  Nevertheless, the pattern setting up is eye candy and one that will keep us ALL busy tracking storm systems. 

Storm Target Dates during Week 2 of Nov: 11/7-11/9, 11/11-11/13 (Veteran's Day Winter Storm?).  Doesn't it always seem like we are tracking some sort of system around Veteran's Day...iirc, someone's B Day is around that day also @james1976???  Anyway, we will prob seeing a winter component during this period.  Winter is likely to show itself in an abrupt fashion Week 2 of November.

No joke, but it's like everything is lining up right as we enter November...I mean, you couldn't script this any other way....look at ALL the teleconnections from a variety of models...that is quite rare to see practically all of them flip in sync.  I'm amazed at what I see happening.  

 

 

 

 

Lastly, #ThinkSnow...I'm predicting that a number of places across the central CONUS have a good shot at breaking records.  It ain't just a mere fantasy, but a legit prediction that the overall pattern for this month will deliver bountiful chances of Snow.  No doubt about it.  The Euro Weeklies from Thursday illustrate a solid idea of whats coming down the road.  This is just before the beginning of the holiday season...once we get towards the middle/end of Nov, I think we'll see the cold press farther south and east.  I know this has been a long post but I had a lot on my mind....who's ready for tracking????  

#MoveTheGoalposts

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom,

As I've been watching moderate snow falling this morning whitening things up (0.5" on grass and rooftops) I wanted to say congrats on the call for an early onset. Any measurable snow before 11/15 here is early. And this isn't just a flurry or mood flakes. Snow has been falling steadily for hours now.

That would be a nice OBS for here a month from now.

Just 3 wks after endless summer (aka 70+ daytime highs) around here, we're measuring our first snowfall. This is not the Plains. We don't flip the way they can. You take a bunch of heat for "hyping cold" and I'll even admit that there are times I'm like "what is he thinking?" lol. Anyways, for mby at least you've scored bigly with LR calls nobody else is risking! Again, congrats amigo. Cheers to many more LR scores going forward.

Now, onto Thanksgiving week's potential. Looking like it's time to buckle-up and find my snow brush for my car too..

I'm glad to hear you are scoring some snowfall this morning.  I think you can remember this day as the one the kick started the "step down" towards winter.  This is a rather potent clipper in terms of backside wind as I'm seeing expanded SWS's issued across IL/IN/IA/OH/KY.  I strive to share any value that I can on this board.  Looks like its going to get busy for our region very soon.  

The ski resorts should begin blowing snow Thanksgiving week with nighttime lows heading into the low 20's and possible 10's for IL/WI resorts.  Should be great early season conditions up in the U.P. post Thanksgiving.  Great to see for those folks and businesses.

https://www.bigsnow.com/live-cams

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

#MoveTheGoalposts

Looks pretty good to me for a long range call...maybe not your specific area, but generally (as I have to cover a large concentration of the central U.S.) the changes have already dialed up...what goal posts are being moved?  Storm dates verified (except for the intensity of the 7th-9th short wave), pattern change mid/late Nov will verify, Nov did open on the chillier side of things 1st-5th (BN for most of us), SW Flow did in fact verify Nov 6th-10th....snows did fall for those up north that the models were suggesting....a SLP did form in the TX Panhandle region (aka the "Slot") on Nov 10th where the Vet's day system began to form in its early stages...btw, I made some bold and precise calls to the extent of location and timeframes on Oct 23rd.  In my defense, I did a darn good job providing LR predictions this month.  In other words, the "goal posts" have not moved.

 

[MIKEKC]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Looks pretty good to me for a long range call...maybe not your specific area, but generally (as I have to cover a large concentration of the central U.S.) the changes have already dialed up...what goal posts are being moved?  Storm dates verified (except for the intensity of the 7th-9th short wave), pattern change mid/late Nov will verify, Nov did open on the chillier side of things 1st-5th (BN for most of us), SW Flow did in fact verify Nov 6th-10th....snows did fall for those up north that the models were suggesting....a SLP did form in the TX Panhandle region (aka the "Slot") on Nov 10th where the Vet's day system began to form in its early stages...btw, I made some bold and precise calls to the extent of location and timeframes on Oct 23rd.  In my defense, I did a darn good job providing LR predictions this month.  In other words, the "goal posts" have not moved.

 

I think you did a pretty darn good job, Tom. Here in KC we had our longest cool spell to date since the new LRC started on OCT. 6th. to open up November.  We have now had 4 different storms systems hit KC and its only NOV. 14th. Hell, even that clipper last night dropped lighting and a quick heavy shower at 3am last night.  We are hitting every storm here in KC and have been doing so since OCt. 6th. WELL above average precipitation. 

My only concern at the moment, based off what I have observed through the first 4-5 weeks of the new LRC, is the western ridge. It sure has poked into KC far too much. Looks like it will do so again tomorrow and Tuesday, highs could jump into the 70's. Plus, we have had warm surges prior to every storm. Will this screw up the storms when they cycle? Rain and 35 degrees...you better not do that! 

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

I think you did a pretty darn good job, Tom. Here in KC we had our longest cool spell to date since the new LRC started on OCT. 6th. to open up November.  We have now had 4 different storms systems hit KC and its only NOV. 14th. Hell, even that clipper last night dropped lighting and a quick heavy shower at 3am last night.  We are hitting every storm here in KC and have been doing so since OCt. 6th. WELL above average precipitation. 

My only concern at the moment, based off what I have observed through the first 4-5 weeks of the new LRC, is the western ridge. It sure has poked into KC far too much. Looks like it will do so again tomorrow and Tuesday, highs could jump into the 70's. Plus, we have had warm surges prior to every storm. Will this screw up the storms when they cycle? Rain and 35 degrees...you better not do that! 

Your region is on the edge of the volatility I foresee but what will/should negate the ridge from poking to far East into the central CONUS is the strength and re-occurring West-Based Greenland or Bafflin Ridge during the cold season.  It’s been an established LRC exhibit that I have seen over the last 6 weeks.

[westMJim]

While there was a solid trace of snow on the ground this morning that is now all gone. Today was a cold and damp day with a light rain/snow mix. The high here for the day so far was 37 and at this time there is a snow/rain mix with a temperature of 36.

[westMJim]

@jaster220  For Grand Rapids the average 1st 1" of snow fall in the last 30 years is November 22. The earliest is October 12 2006 and the latest is December 24, 2020.  Since 1900 the average date is November 19th the earliest and latest stay the same. For Detroit Metro the current 30 year average first 1" snow fall in December 1st with the earliest being October 19 1989 and the latest January 6, 1994. Since 1900 the average 1st one inch snow fall is November 29th the earliest is that October 19th 1989 and the latest is January 13, 1966. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks pretty good to me for a long range call...maybe not your specific area, but generally (as I have to cover a large concentration of the central U.S.) the changes have already dialed up...what goal posts are being moved?  Storm dates verified (except for the intensity of the 7th-9th short wave), pattern change mid/late Nov will verify, Nov did open on the chillier side of things 1st-5th (BN for most of us), SW Flow did in fact verify Nov 6th-10th....snows did fall for those up north that the models were suggesting....a SLP did form in the TX Panhandle region (aka the "Slot") on Nov 10th where the Vet's day system began to form in its early stages...btw, I made some bold and precise calls to the extent of location and timeframes on Oct 23rd.  In my defense, I did a darn good job providing LR predictions this month.  In other words, the "goal posts" have not moved.

 

I’m referencing the records and cold you basically said would dominate this month (Novemberrrrrr) with the CENTRAL US breaking records and “bountiful chances of snow.”

It’s the middle of the month and there’s been nothing abnormally winter like, nor extreme. I’m 4 degrees above normal this month and have had no snow. Everywhere I checked in the rest of the forum shows 3-5 degrees above normal too. The veteran’s day storm was mainly wind and even claimed a dud by the posters on this forum up north that were hit. None of this is way abnormally seasonably late or anything, but I’d say not having things really change until the 22nd-23rd of November when compared to your earlier forecasts, is moving the goalposts. And at this point, who even knows how the last week of the month is going to turn out. It looks more like cold than snow right now. I believe you said there will be a pullback too the end of the month and beginning of December.

Never mind August when summer was going to end early, and September and October when fall/winter would start early.

#ImJustSayin

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m referencing the records and cold you basically said would dominate this month (Novemberrrrrr) with the CENTRAL US breaking records and “bountiful chances of snow.”

It’s the middle of the month and there’s been nothing abnormally winter like, nor extreme. I’m 4 degrees above normal this month and have had no snow. Everywhere I checked in the rest of the forum shows 3-5 degrees above normal too. The veteran’s day storm was mainly wind and even claimed a dud by the posters on this forum up north that were hit. None of this is way abnormally seasonably late or anything, but I’d say not having things really change until the 22nd-23rd of November when compared to your earlier forecasts, is moving the goalposts. And at this point who even knows how that’s going to turn out. It looks more like cold than snow at this point.

Never mind August when summer was going to end early, and September and October when fall/winter would start early.

#ImJustSayin

The month ain’t ova…the fun has just begun for the MW/GL’s…

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m referencing the records and cold you basically said would dominate this month (Novemberrrrrr) with the CENTRAL US breaking records and “bountiful chances of snow.”

It’s the middle of the month and there’s been nothing abnormally winter like, nor extreme. I’m 4 degrees above normal this month and have had no snow. Everywhere I checked in the rest of the forum shows 3-5 degrees above normal too. The veteran’s day storm was mainly wind and even claimed a dud by the posters on this forum up north that were hit. None of this is way abnormally seasonably late or anything, but I’d say not having things really change until the 22nd-23rd of November when compared to your earlier forecasts, is moving the goalposts. And at this point, who even knows how the last week of the month is going to turn out. It looks more like cold than snow right now. I believe you said there will be a pullback too the end of the month and beginning of December.

Never mind August when summer was going to end early, and September and October when fall/winter would start early.

#ImJustSayin

Omaha is not 4F above avg (+2.6F) and Des Moines is (+2.2)

[Grizzcoat]

" Everywhere I checked in the rest of the forum shows 3-5 degrees above normal too. "

You need to check more thoroughly.  :O)

Waterloo is +1.8F - Cedar Rapids is +1.5F -- I could  go on - last I checked we have several posters in that area.

[jaster220]

Yeah, "everywhere in the forum" ?? Seriously??

KDTW thru yesterday, and today was the coldest yet!

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

" Everywhere I checked in the rest of the forum shows 3-5 degrees above normal too. "

You need to check more thoroughly.  :O)

Waterloo is +1.8F - Cedar Rapids is +1.5F -- I could  go on - last I checked we have several posters in that area.

Yeah I have 1 or maybe 2 days AN over the next week. The rest look BN. Waterloo +1.8 will prolly drop a bit.

[Grizzcoat]

This is just pure laziness on part of NWS DLH. Forecast low is 18F. It's currently 6F. After AFD update at 11:30pm, the temp was all ready 9F. Sometimes when a bust is apparent, I think some just mail it in.

[Grizzcoat]

Now 4F in Hibbing. This is one of the worsts bust ever when it comes to a "forecast" 6 or less hours out. And these are "modern" times with all this technology.   

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a cold and damp day. While there were periods of snow and rain and snow mixed.  With temperatures in the mid to upper 30's the snow did not stick. Well there was a trace on the ground yesterday morning. So far the official snow fall for November at Grand Rapids is 1.7" that is just below the average of 2.1" by this date. The current official mean at GRR is 42.5 and that is -0.5. The overnight low here at my house was 31 and at this time it is cloudy and 33 here.

[Beltrami Island]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Now 4F in Hibbing. This is one of the worsts bust ever when it comes to a "forecast" 6 or less hours out. And these are "modern" times with all this technology.   

On the flipside I am expecting a different type of bust tomorrow afternoon.  A sub 990mb low crawling straight west to east just north of the US/CAN border and my NWS forecast has a high of 38.  With this scenario I will be happy if it stays below 45.  Similar situations in the past have brought temps to near 50 on the MN/ON border in the middle of winter with a large snowpack.  This is one of those scenarios where I wonder if I am missing something in the models that a degreed meteorologist can see?   

[Tom]

Hit a high of 87F here in PHX yesterday and expecting a carbon copy today.  Mornings are nice and cool (59F) but warm quickly as the sun pokes above the horizon.  On my walk, as I headed east towards the sun, the low sun angle literally blinds you over here.  No wonder there are so many car accidents on east/west roads due to the suns rays.

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

12 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Omaha is not 4F above avg (+2.6F) and Des Moines is (+2.2)

Splitting hairs here aren't we? It was just a couple of days ago. Get back to me on Wednesday after the 60s and 70s today and tomorrow. 

[Minny_Weather]

Most of the lakes in Western Minnesota are partially frozen over.

[OmahaSnowFan]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, "everywhere in the forum" ?? Seriously??

KDTW thru yesterday, and today was the coldest yet!

My apologies that I forgot about the person near Detroit. I guess the central US breaking records and it being Novemberrrrr, is including only eastern Michigan in the central US and -.2 degrees being record breaking.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Most of the lakes in Western Minnesota are partially frozen over.

Duluth MN: +3.9 degrees

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DULUTH
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2021
                                          LATITUDE:   46 49 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  92 11 W    

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  41  30  36  -1  29   0    T  0.5    0 12.7 21 290   M    M   8 18     30 290
 2  38  27  33  -3  32   0 0.00  0.0    T  9.2 17 300   M    M   8        27 310
 3  42  28  35  -1  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.6 14 270   M    M   6        20 260
 4  47  26  37   2  28   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.6 17 210   M    M   2 18     23 220
 5  54  34  44   9  21   0 0.00  0.0    0 14.2 23 210   M    M   3        33 190
 6  64  41  53  19  12   0 0.11  0.0    0 12.9 23 260   M    M   3 18     31 280
 7  56  39  48  14  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.3 14 190   M    M   2 1      17 190
 8  52  31  42   8  23   0 0.00  0.0    M  8.5 16 310   M    M   1 1      23 310
 9  54  28  41   8  24   0 0.00  0.0    M  7.9 18 290   M    M   0 8      25 280
10  47  26  37   5  28   0 0.41  0.0    0 12.6 26 100   M    M   6 18     36  90
11  42  33  38   6  27   0 1.05  0.6    0 14.2 24  90   M    M  10 1      35  90
12  36  30  33   1  32   0 0.02  0.4    T 11.2 24 340   M    M  10 1      35 350
13  32  27  30  -1  35   0 0.18  3.0    T  7.1 20 350   M    M  10 128    31  20
14  29  17  23  -7  42   0 0.02  0.4    3  9.1 17 340   M    M   8        26 350
================================================================================
SM  634  417       380   0  1.79  4.9    138.1          M       77              
================================================================================
AV 45.3 29.8                               9.9 FASTST   M    M   6    MAX(MPH)  
                                 MISC ---->    26 100                 36  90   
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:   DULUTH
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2021
                                          LATITUDE:   46 49 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  92 11 W                   

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16    

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.5   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   1.79    1 = FOG OR MIST              
DPTR FM NORMAL:   3.9   DPTR FM NORMAL:    0.80    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY  
HIGHEST:    64 ON  6    GRTST 24HR  1.44 ON 10-11      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS      
LOWEST:     17 ON 14                               3 = THUNDER                  

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

The month ain’t ova…the fun has just begun for the MW/GL’s…

So the Central US breaking records is now MW/GL's?

#MovingTheGoalposts

Tom- you put your neck out there making forecasts which is more than I do, but I'm just saying you can't claim to be right this whole time when clearly you haven't been is the point I'm making.

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Most of the lakes in Western Minnesota are partially frozen over.

Polar bear plunge time. Get out those bathing suits.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So the Central US breaking records is now MW/GL's?

#MovingTheGoalposts

Tom- you put your neck out there making forecasts which is more than I do, but I'm just saying you can't claim to be right this whole time when clearly you haven't been is the point I'm making.

No, I'm not claiming victory...yet, as I did not expect to see the Plains this warm so far for the month.  As I said, however, the month isn't over and Thanksgiving week is especially on my radar.  Plus, that is only one of the many predictions I pursued for this month.  If I'm wrong, I'll take it on the chin...btw, I do believe the MW and GL's are part of the central CONUS.   To my knowledge, this region has been since the inception of this Sub.

[GDR]

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z Euro from last night refusing to allow the cold come down into the US. I end up averaging +4.5 degrees for the run.

[OmahaSnowFan]

384 hour snowfall on the GFS.

[GDR]

12z way different so far

[gimmesnow]

Every year man, November is cold enough to blow snow only 7 days away for the whole first part of the month

[Hawkeye]

The op Euro has been flopping back and forth with a possible strong cold shot around Nov 21st.  Two runs ago it had Omaha in the upper 20s next Monday, then last night's run low 50s.

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So the Central US breaking records is now MW/GL's?

#MovingTheGoalposts

Tom- you put your neck out there making forecasts which is more than I do, but I'm just saying you can't claim to be right this whole time when clearly you haven't been is the point I'm making.

Pretty Spot on up here. Lakes under 200 acres have skim ice in bays this am. Warm up to average tomorrow and Wed. Need another week of cold so I can get the bird feeders out! Ice rink getting filled in a week maybe sooner

[Madtown]

Also John Dee maybe his videos free this year on YouTube. Check him out for some  Dry UP humor and some forecast insights.

 

[james1976]

GFS flopping around with the Thanksgiving system. 12z run has it back.