November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Here is the latest on this storm.......

Need a SE trend!

NOAA:

Strong high pressure looks to become established across the eastern
third of the CONUS for at least the first half of the weekend
bringing a period of dry and slowly moderating temperatures through
the 40s. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably for late in the
weekend into early next week as strong northern stream PV energy
dives into the northern Plains and leads to surface low pressure
development. At this time, southeast Michigan looks to be on the
warm side of this system, but will need to bear watching as this
wave gets sampled in the coming days.

Then, much colder air arrives...

Check out that huge trough over the midwest. Just awesomeness!

[Madtown]

Not liking what Mr. John Dee had to say. looks like a big trough developing out by Alaska. gonna steal the cold and storminess

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

I'm not sure I can give that guy any respect anyway.  How can he include Kentucky in a winter forecast region but not Kansas or Missouri?  Or even Lincoln, NE or southwest Iowa?  I mean Lincoln is more than 200 miles north of the southern portion of KY included in his forecast.  Seems pretty lazy.  

lol

[Minny_Weather]

Amazingly got some lake effect here tonight from Devils Lake. A dusting, but still cool as you don't associate the Dakotas with LES. 28°F.

[Tom]

The LES signal looks pretty good for Sun/Mon according to the 0z Euro...a little better then just "mood" flakes...the wind direction for SW MI near @westMJim @Stacsh @Jarod looks good at the moment for a few inches.

 

 

[GDR]

Looks like December might be headed into Decembrrrrrrr according to the latest MJO

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies are in and suggest a wet/cool MW/GL's, aligning with the CFSv2 weeklies and EPS for Thanksgiving week and the close of Nov.

Week 1...

Temp/Precip...

 

In terms of Week 2, this is where the models (esp the GEFS) are showing conflicting signals.  The American GEFS suggesting a strong west coast trough while the EPS/JMA/CFSv2 disagree and remain steadfast on an eastern CONUS trough.

Temp/Precip...BN temps more widespread and near avg precp overall...

 

 

Week 3-4 the JMA appears to maintain the eastern CONUS trough signal deeper into DEC along with a SW ridge.  This period is one to watch bc I think the model is loosing the Greenland Blocking signal as well as up in the Arctic.  IMO, we should see more blocking which will result in an active/colder pattern.  You can sorta gauge from the temp map below that the model does "see" the potential for cooler temps across the eastern Sub.

 

Temp/Precip...AN precip across the N Sub/GL's region...

 

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The LES signal looks pretty good for Sun/Mon according to the 0z Euro...a little better then just "mood" flakes...the wind direction for SW MI near @westMJim @Stacsh @Jarod looks good at the moment for a few inches.

 

 

Would be a little too NW wind for me but I’ll take an inch or two initially before it goes true NW.  

[westMJim]

It was a mild and wet day here yesterday with a high 58 and here at my house 0.66" of rain fall. The overnight low here at my house was 36 and that is the current temperature with cloudy skies. It is somewhat breezy so that will make that 36 feel colder. So far November 2021 at Grand Rapids the mean of 42.1 is just -0.3 and there officially has been 1.50" of precipitation and a total of 1.7" of snow fall. All is all a rather typical November. The updated CPC long range guess will be issued later today we shall see if the update has any clues to the next few months.

[Madtown]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

The LES signal looks pretty good for Sun/Mon according to the 0z Euro...a little better then just "mood" flakes...the wind direction for SW MI near @westMJim @Stacsh @Jarod looks good at the moment for a few inches.

 

 

I'll take the NW wind

[james1976]

Did the 29th-30th storm get bumped up to the 27th?

[Clinton]

37 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Did the 29th-30th storm get bumped up to the 27th?

Not sure, the cycle length looks to be around 50 days but it could be 48 or 52.  Until we start cycle 2 we can't say for sure.  Here is what Gary said in his blog today.

Thanksgiving Week Outlook:

As we move into next week a storm is likely going to form around Thanksgiving Day. Some models show this storm system, and others have it weak and dry over most of the nation. As I have been saying on KSHB-41 for the past few days, this is a part of the cycling pattern we have identified that will likely produce a stronger storm system, but we have been uncertain of the timing. This is still the case, so I am going to show you the American Model from the overnight computer run to look into the this new data and trend:

Thanksgiving Day:

Wednesday Forecast

This model data came in around 4 AM this morning, and it is now showing a snowstorm over Oklahoma and Missouri on Black Friday. This model has been jumping around and not consistent at all. We must watch this closely, as it could be quite impacting for travel on Thanksgiving Day.

Black Friday Forecast From The American Model

Will it form faster and stronger, and thus be a bit farther north and west? If it is slightly farther west and stronger, then KC would suddenly be in that band of snow? If it is a bit faster and weaker, then it will be dry all around our area. We will be monitoring this closely. We will breakdown Thanksgiving week day by day on the weather forecasts tonight on KSHB 41 News.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Clinton

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not sure, the cycle length looks to be around 50 days but it could be 48 or 52.  Until we start cycle 2 we can't say for sure.  Here is what Gary said in his blog today.

Thanksgiving Week Outlook:

As we move into next week a storm is likely going to form around Thanksgiving Day. Some models show this storm system, and others have it weak and dry over most of the nation. As I have been saying on KSHB-41 for the past few days, this is a part of the cycling pattern we have identified that will likely produce a stronger storm system, but we have been uncertain of the timing. This is still the case, so I am going to show you the American Model from the overnight computer run to look into the this new data and trend:

Thanksgiving Day:

Wednesday Forecast

This model data came in around 4 AM this morning, and it is now showing a snowstorm over Oklahoma and Missouri on Black Friday. This model has been jumping around and not consistent at all. We must watch this closely, as it could be quite impacting for travel on Thanksgiving Day.

Black Friday Forecast From The American Model

Will it form faster and stronger, and thus be a bit farther north and west? If it is slightly farther west and stronger, then KC would suddenly be in that band of snow? If it is a bit faster and weaker, then it will be dry all around our area. We will be monitoring this closely. We will breakdown Thanksgiving week day by day on the weather forecasts tonight on KSHB 41 News.

How about they phase? And then Ann Arbor can see a blizzard for the UM OSU game on that Saturday?  

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

How about they phase? And then Ann Arbor can see a blizzard for the UM OSU game on that Saturday?  

If it means Ohio State will loose I'd be ok with it lol.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[mlgamer]

This morning I did get a laugh out of this....same map, different year for MBY...lol

 

[tStacsh]

23 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

This morning I did get a laugh out of this....same map, different year for MBY...lol

 

Don't worry the 12z has it suppressed and a no snow.  

[Minny_Weather]

35 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

This morning I did get a laugh out of this....same map, different year for MBY...lol

 

Ugh, ditto. I'm gonna scream if Northeast SD gets creamed again.

[james1976]

Looked out the window and was surprised to see a snow shower!

Cloudy, windy and cold. Only 30°

[jaster220]

41 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Don't worry the 12z has it suppressed and a no snow.  

Thank you Mr. Cheery

[Andie]

59*-45* today.  Breezy, sunny, clear,…just gorgeous!!

[jaster220]

Always nice to see this in an AFD

Quote

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow amounts.

 

[Hawkeye]

52 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Looked out the window and was surprised to see a snow shower!

Cloudy, windy and cold. Only 30°

It's the coldest day of the season so far... only 31º here with a wind chill in the upper teens.

[Beltrami Island]

13 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Amazingly got some lake effect here tonight from Devils Lake. A dusting, but still cool as you don't associate the Dakotas with LES. 28°F.

That's awesome.  I find early season LES off of larger inland lakes to be one of the coolest weather peculiarities I have experienced.  The general public doesn't have any clue what is going on... The setup has to be absolutely perfect though.  Most significant I have experienced is about 6" in one day in Baudette off of Lake of the Woods.  The cold air that makes it possible quickly shuts it down as ice starts to form.  

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Thank you Mr. Cheery

Hey now.  Currently enjoying some mood flakes and cold winter type day.  Wind is brisk, snow is in the air.  Might get a dusting tonight.   Feels like winter.  Hopefully can get on the tractor and suck up the rest of the leaves this weekend before LES early next week.  Better? lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

19 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

That's awesome.  I find early season LES off of larger inland lakes to be one of the coolest weather peculiarities I have experienced.  The general public doesn't have any clue what is going on... The setup has to be absolutely perfect though.  Most significant I have experienced is about 6" in one day in Baudette off of Lake of the Woods.  The cold air that makes it possible quickly shuts it down as ice starts to form.  

I remember a few years back, we had snow showers (streamers) form off of the smoke coming from a factory outside of Norfolk, NE. Didn't fall here in Omaha, but to our west and northwest.

Wanna say they lasted most of the day, but were very light amounting to no more than an inch or two.

[OmahaSnowFan]

It seems to be looking quite likely that I will end up above average for the month temperature wise, no measurable snow, and only one day of precip. total which was rain amounting to about .30"

Not that obsurd, but it's been a sleeper here.

[Minny_Weather]

4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I remember a few years back, we had snow showers (streamers) form off of the smoke coming from a factory outside of Norfolk, NE. Didn't fall here in Omaha, but to our west and northwest.

Wanna say they lasted most of the day, but were very light amounting to no more than an inch or two.

I remember that! Got some legitimately heavy rates in Lincoln that day.

[gimmesnow]

Portage Wi blowing snow for quite some time. No word of anything down here but this is a good sign. Looks like they can blow from Sunday night to Tuesday morning down here, which is enough to open on Wednesday once they knock down all the piles. Cascade is probably gonna open next Wednesday, my guess, with SE Wisconsin opening around the same time. Just because Cascade is so big and it takes so much more to get it going.

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I remember that! Got some legitimately heavy rates in Lincoln that day.

It was impressive how far south they made it and how long the atmosphere was set up perfectly for that to happen

[jaster220]

The Mitt going to look and feel wintry overnight. Holiday mood flakes for the early shoppers.

 

[tStacsh]

42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

The Mitt going to look and feel wintry overnight. Holiday mood flakes for the early shoppers.

 

Squall over my house rn.  

[jaster220]

43 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Squall over my house rn.  

Now that's the WMI I know.

Stepped out after work to the first shower of flakes here on the west side. It was brief but nice to see, especially just 24 hrs after the 63F yesterday. These ups-n-downs could be really good if timed correctly like 07-08.

Sunday am to Monday am looks to be another one of these contrasts.

GFS looking nice:

 

[Niko]

Light snow currently along w windy conditions and temps are at 34F.

[Minny_Weather]

Nothing but a weenie band and NW flow here over the next few days.

[tStacsh]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Now that's the WMI I know.

Stepped out after work to the first shower of flakes here on the west side. It was brief but nice to see, especially just 24 hrs after the 63F yesterday. These ups-n-downs could be really good if timed correctly like 07-08.

Sunday am to Monday am looks to be another one of these contrasts.

GFS looking nice:

 

Hoping for a couple inches with that and a white turkey day if it sticks around. 

[GDR]

Oh what fun this would be…..

[Tom]

I stepped out on my patio deck about an hour ago and saw the partial lunar eclipse...pretty cool to see, actually, I'm going to go out one more time as I write this.  So, the skies are much brighter now with the moon shining brighter as the eclipse fades away.  Glad I was able to witness something so rare that its been over 580 years since something like this happened!

[Clinton]

0z Euro with its take on the storm from the 27th-29th has rain over to snow solution.  The GFS is further south and is just rain.  Not sure that either one is doing a good job with this storm.  @Tom the 500mb maps just don't look right to me and it's been 3 days since they have.  What's your take on this?

[Tom]

On 11/1/2021 at 2:23 AM, Tom said:

The latest CFSv2 model over the past week or so has shown an interesting North American pattern.  Similarly, as was the pattern back in Oct, it is suggesting a red paint bomb over N Canada.  Instead of it being centered over eastern parts of Canada, its farther north this month..although, one can say there is still hints of ridging in the east.  Could this be another indicator that suggests more blocking??  I believe so.  Hudson Bay HP's???  Yup, you can prob count on that happening.  Another Active southern stream?  Very likely based on other LR signals I'm seeing.  Keep the storm parade going...and the moisture feed flowing...that monstrous PAC jet ain't going away anytime soon.  Get ready @Mr Marine Layer  and those who lurk on here from So Cal...mid/late November has my attn for your region for some pretty potent storms.  #SWFlow

 

 

 

Some more LR thoughts as my interest has been perked on the idea of #winter after seeing snow falling up north and out west near @CentralNebWeather.  A big reversal in the 10mb strat temps is about to happen over Siberia/Russia over the upcoming week provided by the maps below.  Is this the evidence we need that would indicate a legit chance for winter to get going early in late Nov/early Dec?  The Strat Warm event that started back in mid Oct is showing signs that the cold air showed up in the lower mid latitudes right now. 

 

Current status....

 

 

Day 5....

 

 

By the week of the 14th, I'm predicting a sustained early onslaught of wintry conditions for the Upper MW/W GL's region.  How far this bleeds south and eastward is contingent upon the blocking up north.  @FAR_Weather and those up north are poised to get their first snows this week of Nov...get your winter gear ready!  This pattern should lock in for a bit and start to build up the glacier up north across Southern Canada where we need it most this time of year.  Don't want to see any "snow holes" develop that mitigate the strength of Arctic Air to bleed on south into the Lower 48.

In terms of the LRC, I think there is a harmonic pattern within the longer term pattern.  I've been studying this part of the developing LRC and I think it is showing up late this weekend into next week.  The Veteran's Day system will be a test. Let's see if this is a repeating pattern bc we've seen something similar when a monster storm wrapped up near Fargo Oct 9th/10th.  IF, there is another piece of energy that tracks out of the SW following the Veteran's Day system and cuts up towards the GL's, then I'll be more convinced there is a 30-33 day harmonic...or...a very short LRC cycle???  Things to ponder on over the coming month of wx observations.

 

Not a bad call regarding the bolded above...the lack of any high lat blocking as both the AO/NAO spiked (+) during this period negated the cold to bleed farther south.  All, in all, not as cold out west and south as those east and north across our Sub.  

Meantime, we now enter the SW Flow part I mentioned above as we enter Thanksgiving week.  The models are now beginning to dial up on the 1st trough to target So Cal @Mr Marine Layerregion right around the 23rd and it appears to get cut off.  I made a comment on this system a while back and using the BSR as guidance, it would most likely be a west/east slow mover.  Last night's 0z Euro does just that and dumps snows from the Plains and towards the lower lakes.  Just fantasy runs for now so we'll see how the models hand this SW energy.

 

@Clinton, this LRC pattern is quite complex bc we have so many systems that look very similar, esp the beginning of the LRC when there was a storm parade of 5 or 6 storms that came out of the W/SW.  There were several "inside sliders" and "PAC NW riders".  My current thinking is that the Thanksgiving storm correlates with the Oct 10th/11th storm that tracked out of the "Slot" near the TX Panhandle/OK region.  Last night's 0z Euro shows both SLP's across the Central Sub (up near the Dakota's and TX Pan Handle)...very similar to the Oct 10th/11th pattern below.

 

 

Compare to last nights Euro...