November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Not a bad call regarding the bolded above...the lack of any high lat blocking as both the AO/NAO spiked (+) during this period negated the cold to bleed farther south.  All, in all, not as cold out west and south as those east and north across our Sub.  

Meantime, we now enter the SW Flow part I mentioned above as we enter Thanksgiving week.  The models are now beginning to dial up on the 1st trough to target So Cal @Mr Marine Layerregion right around the 23rd and it appears to get cut off.  I made a comment on this system a while back and using the BSR as guidance, it would most likely be a west/east slow mover.  Last night's 0z Euro does just that and dumps snows from the Plains and towards the lower lakes.  Just fantasy runs for now so we'll see how the models hand this SW energy.

 

@Clinton, this LRC pattern is quite complex bc we have so many systems that look very similar, esp the beginning of the LRC when there was a storm parade of 5 or 6 storms that came out of the W/SW.  There were several "inside sliders" and "PAC NW riders".  My current thinking is that the Thanksgiving storm correlates with the Oct 10th/11th storm that tracked out of the "Slot" near the TX Panhandle/OK region.  Last night's 0z Euro shows both SLP's across the Central Sub (up near the Dakota's and TX Pan Handle)...very similar to the Oct 10th/11th pattern below.

 

 

Compare to last nights Euro...

 

 

 

 

I agree it lines up well with the 10th/11th of Oct.  Are you thinking the southern piece will slide south of the lakes are cut up through Illinois?  Back in Oct the blocking backed off and allowed it to track that way, thus no artic air to start Dec.  The artic air could arrive around the 6th or 7th?

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I agree it lines up well with the 10th/11th of Oct.  Are you thinking the southern piece will slide south of the lakes are cut up through Illinois?  Back in Oct the blocking backed off and allowed it to track that way, thus no artic air to start Dec.  The artic air could arrive around the 6th or 7th?

I think the southern piece won't cut so much north as it did back in Oct, thus leading towards an OHV track.  As far as the return of Arctic Air, I think it will come back during the 1st full week of Dec.  I'm looking for a CO Low around Dec 2nd or so that should form and then tug down arctic air into the lower 48 ending the "Pullback" so to speak. 

Last nights 0z EPS wants to bring in the colder air quicker while the GEFS are tad slower.  0z GEPS are in the EPS camp.

 

 

Full Disclosure...I'm already thinking of heading back home around Dec 1st/2nd...gotta get back home and make sure my place is nice and clean for the 1st snows!

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

I think the southern piece won't cut so much north as it did back in Oct, thus leading towards an OHV track.  As far as the return of Arctic Air, I think it will come back during the 1st full week of Dec.  I'm looking for a CO Low around Dec 2nd or so that should form and then tug down arctic air into the lower 48 ending the "Pullback" so to speak. 

Last nights 0z EPS wants to bring in the colder air quicker while the GEFS are tad slower.  0z GEPS are in the EPS camp.

 

 

Full Disclosure...I'm already thinking of heading back home around Dec 1st/2nd...gotta get back home and make sure my place is nice and clean for the 1st snows!

You don't want to miss that first big snow of the year!  Thanks for the insights and hopefully the models get into better agreement soon .

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You don't want to miss that first big snow of the year!  Thanks for the insights and hopefully the models get into better agreement soon .

I know, believe me...I was pondering on this before I booked my ticket out west bc I knew Thanksgiving week would squeak out a chance of that happening back home.  If I do miss out on seeing my first big snow, I'm good with it...I'm really enjoying this amazing stretch of AN temps out here in the desert SW.

[tStacsh]

Observations on my drive to work:  Grass is still lush vibrant green although not growing anymore.  Not many people have raked leaves yet this year.  Still 20-30 percent of leaves on the trees.  1/2" of snow on the ground.  Weird seeing green grass sticking out with snow and tons of leaves on the ground.  Feels like a mid-October cold snap.  

[Hawkeye]

It got pretty cold in Iowa this morning, several degrees colder than expected.  It hit 14º at the CR airport and 16º in my yard.

[gabel23]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I stepped out on my patio deck about an hour ago and saw the partial lunar eclipse...pretty cool to see, actually, I'm going to go out one more time as I write this.  So, the skies are much brighter now with the moon shining brighter as the eclipse fades away.  Glad I was able to witness something so rare that its been over 580 years since something like this happened!

I stepped out at 3 this morning but clouds had rolled in! I wasn't about to stay up and wait to see if they would go away so I went back to bed.......I really wanted to witness it though they are so cool! 

[Andie]

Out in the SW edge of Tarrant County (Ft Worth) I’m sitting at 37* at 8am.  
We’re getting close to that first magic 32*

We should see the high 50’s today. Warmer tomorrow.  

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded a half inch of snow fall yesterday. The official amount at GRR was 1.7" At this time the ground is white but the roads are not. For the month of November Grand Rapids now has a mean of 41.8 that is a departure of -0.4 and so far this month the official snow fall amount is now at 3.4" 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I stepped out at 3 this morning but clouds had rolled in! I wasn't about to stay up and wait to see if they would go away so I went back to bed.......I really wanted to witness it though they are so cool! 

Oh man, that stinks!  At least you got a glimpse of it.  I was fortunate to have clear skies.  The second time I went out there were cirrus clouds that moved in.   Maybe next time… …

[westMJim]

39 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Grass is still lush vibrant green although not growing anymore.  Not many people have raked leaves yet this year.  Still 20-30 percent of leaves on the trees

I still have a tree that has almost all its leaves on. And another with a good amount of leaves on. But yes there are a lot of leaves still on some trees and a lot of unraked leaves on the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

Super worried that this will be the second year in a row where NW flow kills any snow chance here before suppression makes appreciable snow impossible till late February.

[snowstorm83]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

CO Low 

You have my attention  

[Minny_Weather]

16 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

KC's normal daily low hits 32 degrees today.  The 12z GFS has us going below freezing on exactly one day over the next 16.  That ain't a cold pattern.  

Weird to see what's happening elsewhere. Enjoying a near-average day here today before going back below normal, then one more slightly above average day on Tuesday before plunging into a deep freeze.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Transitory cool shots and no snow.... Goodbye November!

 

[Madtown]

Getting a little nervous looking out into the future. This silly drought better not start building on itself

[Niko]

Already my forecast is mentioning the chance for snow end of next week. Something to watch in the upcoming days.

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Already my forecast is mentioning the chance for snow end of next week. Something to watch in the upcoming days.

 

Maps from the 12th? Did u mean to Niko? tStasch gonna call you out and tell us all that storm already vanished 6.66 days ago, lol

[Niko]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Maps from the 12th? Did u mean to Niko? tStasch gonna call you out and tell us all that storm already vanished 6.66 days ago, lol

Too bad it is a week out amigo and don't ya luv that track. Just about perfect. Close call for our buddy Clinton also. On the second map, there seems to be blocking at that point of time. Noticed that high up in Nova Scotia. Good sign!

[stratosjeff]

Just logging in this season. I snapped this photo last week. I'm not ready for winter, but it's here either way. Many lakes are starting to ice over.

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Too bad it is a week out amigo and don't ya luv that track. Just about perfect. Close call for our buddy Clinton also. On the second map, there seems to be blocking at that point of time. Noticed that high up in Nova Scotia. Good sign!

Make it snow buddy we need a storm bad!

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Too bad it is a week out amigo and don't ya luv that track. Just about perfect. Close call for our buddy Clinton also. On the second map, there seems to be blocking at that point of time. Noticed that high up in Nova Scotia. Good sign!

Would be sweet, yes indeed. Not sure though if my prior excitement was warranted as things seem to be kinda "gimpy". Still, will wait and see how Sunday/Monday plays out before I get too down about it. I just knew when Tom left home, it didn't bode well. Never does..

[jaster220]

So, where winter "rules" did pretty good again last night: (takes Gaylord to 18" on the season already!)

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1026 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     SNOW             2 N KELDEN              46.24N 84.31W
11/19/2021  M8.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC



0900 AM     SNOW             6 W BARBEAU             46.28N 84.41W
11/19/2021  M7.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM NEAR INTERSECTION OF M-129 AND
            15 MILE ROAD.

0745 AM     SNOW             6 SE GAYLORD            44.97N 84.59W
11/19/2021  M5.0 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT NEAR LAKE ARROWHEAD.

0745 AM     SNOW             2 E OTSEGO LAKE STATE P 44.93N 84.65W
11/19/2021  M5.0 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT NEAR CHUB LAKE.

0430 AM     SNOW             2 NNE OTSEGO LAKE STATE 44.96N 84.68W
11/19/2021  M4.5 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-17 GAYLORD 4.1 S.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SE ELMIRA             45.05N 84.82W
11/19/2021  M4.2 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-19 ELMIRA 2.2 ESE.

0830 AM     SNOW             5 SE GAYLORD            44.98N 84.60W
11/19/2021  M4.2 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT IN MICHAYWE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
11/19/2021  M4.1 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION APXM4 GAYLORD 9 SSW.

0630 AM     SNOW             KINCHELOE               46.25N 84.50W
11/19/2021  M4.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

So, where winter "rules" did pretty good again last night: (takes Gaylord to 18" on the season already!)

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1026 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     SNOW             2 N KELDEN              46.24N 84.31W
11/19/2021  M8.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC



0900 AM     SNOW             6 W BARBEAU             46.28N 84.41W
11/19/2021  M7.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM NEAR INTERSECTION OF M-129 AND
            15 MILE ROAD.

0745 AM     SNOW             6 SE GAYLORD            44.97N 84.59W
11/19/2021  M5.0 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT NEAR LAKE ARROWHEAD.

0745 AM     SNOW             2 E OTSEGO LAKE STATE P 44.93N 84.65W
11/19/2021  M5.0 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT NEAR CHUB LAKE.

0430 AM     SNOW             2 NNE OTSEGO LAKE STATE 44.96N 84.68W
11/19/2021  M4.5 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-17 GAYLORD 4.1 S.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SE ELMIRA             45.05N 84.82W
11/19/2021  M4.2 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-19 ELMIRA 2.2 ESE.

0830 AM     SNOW             5 SE GAYLORD            44.98N 84.60W
11/19/2021  M4.2 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT IN MICHAYWE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
11/19/2021  M4.1 INCH        OTSEGO             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION APXM4 GAYLORD 9 SSW.

0630 AM     SNOW             KINCHELOE               46.25N 84.50W
11/19/2021  M4.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

 

They have a Lake Arrowhead there too.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, stratosjeff said:

Just logging in this season. I snapped this photo last week. I'm not ready for winter, but it's here either way. Many lakes are starting to ice over.

Don't get frostbite.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Would be sweet, yes indeed. Not sure though if my prior excitement was warranted as things seem to be kinda "gimpy". Still, will wait and see how Sunday/Monday plays out before I get too down about it. I just knew when Tom left home, it didn't bode well. Never does..

I may have to extend my trip if there isn't much excitement brewing for our region back home.  The models are def acting erratic at the moment trying to figure out the blocking situation in the N ATL and the spike in + PNA.  Blow torch heading for the western US to close out the month and into the Plains while the eastern Sub is cooler due to the influence of the -NAO.  It could very well turn out that parts of the MW into the GL's region ends up benefiting while the rest wait for Winter to arrive out west?  The rest of this month is pointing that way.

[tStacsh]

Turns out the les for Monday will be little not non existent.  Likely looking at December as a new targeting point for any sign of real winter…or maybe later than that.   rinse and repeat

[GDR]

It’s looking more and more likely were a couple weeks out For a pattern change.

[Hawkeye]

Terry Swails is watching the MJO for a possible move into cold phase 7 by the end of the first week of December, but he says models have been pushing that back so he's really just hopeful and searching for some winter weather like everyone else.

Yesterday the neighbor's oak tree dumped a bunch of leaves, so I will definitely be taking advantage of today's nice, calm weather to collect them.

[Madtown]

Just crazy how little snow on the models through the first week of Dec. Seems the cold is gonna stick around up this way, which is good to freeze all the swamps for snowmobiling. But we need snow starting December to get them open on opening day!

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Just crazy how little snow on the models through the first week of Dec. Seems the cold is gonna stick around up this way, which is good to freeze all the swamps for snowmobiling. But we need snow starting December to get them open on opening day!

For your recreational activities, I’d imagine a frozen ground is the best way to go and then let nature layeth the white gold.  I remember talking about this one winter season and how it’s a bad idea to have a big snow on top of warm ground and unfrozen lakes/swamps.

[Clinton]

It's going to be a great weekend to work outside and put up Christmas lights.  

[jaster220]

On 11/19/2021 at 8:38 AM, tStacsh said:

Observations on my drive to work:  Grass is still lush vibrant green although not growing anymore.  Not many people have raked leaves yet this year.  Still 20-30 percent of leaves on the trees.  1/2" of snow on the ground.  Weird seeing green grass sticking out with snow and tons of leaves on the ground.  Feels like a mid-October cold snap.  

Yep, October of 2013 there was an early LES event that had MDOT plows out on 94 in Van Buren. I remember the early sugar maples were in full color with a solid covering of snow OTG. Now that was a legit early winter arrival.

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house was 32 the current temperature is 37 with cloudy skies. The current pattern looks to have some cold rain and then some lake effect snow but not much for the rest of this month. As of this AM here are some snow fall totals for this winter season. Grand Raids 3.4", Muskegon 1.5", Lansing 0.1", Detroit 0.8", Flint 0.3", Saginaw 0.4" to the north Alpena 0.9" Houghton Lake 0.5", Gaylord 18.0" Petoskey 5.0", Traverse City 0.4' In the UP Sault Ste Marie 5.7" and Marquette 11.6" Most locations in Michigan are now below average snow fall for this date.

[westMJim]

Here is a fun fact.

The last two winters Grand Rapids has seasonal snow fall totals of 53.1" in 2019/20 and then just 46.1" last winter. Going back to 1940 Grand Rapids has NOT had 3 years in a row of less than 60.0" of course that did happen several times from 1895 to 1940. My guess for this year? Well in the last 30 years the range here at Grand Rapids has been between 116.0" in 2014 to just 46.1" last year so a safe bet would be between 50.0" and 110.0" with a target of 77.5"

[Niko]

Radar showing a few echoes of hvy snow to my west.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be a great weekend to work outside and put up Christmas lights.  

Great opportunity! Now is the time to do it. I will definitely take advantage of this weather, especially heading into December. Blowtorch seems likely, so Ma Nature is cooperating w us in decorating anything outdoors.

[Iowawx]

It's hard to see us getting much of anything here. Models have pretty much nothing for the next two weeks. All this talk of an "active" pattern doesn't seem to be panning out. 

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, GDR said:

It’s looking more and more likely were a couple weeks out For a pattern change.

We will know for sure in a couple of weeks. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I average an astonishing 7.8 degrees above average for the latest run and my only snowfall shows up at hour 384.