November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Radar showing a few echoes of hvy snow to my west.

Hope they reach your area soon.

[Andie]

We’re going to 76* today. Low of 67*. 

The Fall roller coaster is on!   So are my sore throat and achy bones reactions.  Every day is an adventure down here in the Fall. Much worse than a Texas Spring.  
 

Windy, Warm, Chilly, Damp, Dry, Cold, Stormy. It’s a patchwork of “just wait till tomorrow’s down here.”     
 

No matter what comes - Have a great Thanksgiving guys!!!  

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Hope they reach your area soon.

They did

Lasted for 5 minutes. It looked like a moderate snowstorm for a sec. Tis the season!

[Minny_Weather]

NW flow.

[Anti Marine Layer]

27 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

NW flow.

Will it bring snow? Who's the guy in your avatar? 

[Tom]

Tis the season....Chicago held its annual Lights Festival on Michigan Ave yesterday and it certainly delivered!  Great shot from Barry Butler...

 

Meantime, out here its sorta starting to feel like the holidays as I'm seeing more locals putting up Christmas decor.  I ventured out to some stores yesterday and picked up some good deals, but I didn't really get that "holiday feel"...I still feel like I'm on vacation out here.  The weather has been phenomenal and I'm embracing every min of it.

While much of the nation from the "heartland" and points west will be basking in AN temps post Thanksgiving, most of the eastern Sub will be rather cold for the official start to the holiday season.  It looks rather blustery and cold for the Lakes region on Black Friday.  Bundle up for those who are going to venture out and do some shopping!

 

 

Quite the divide showing up on the 0z Euro....literally, OMA/LNK is the divide between Autumn/Winter....imagine if there was snow OTG from IA and points northeast??  

 

 

 

[Tom]

As we close out November and look towards the opening of Dec, I'm seeing some interesting developments up in the Strat.  A complete reversal across North America from a cold upper atmosphere and a move towards a big warming event.  We saw a similar situation back in early October...are we seeing a cycle??  Could be...but I find that the Strat doesn't really have a cyclical nature to it as it behaves in it's own peculiar way.  It does fit the pattern like what happened back in Oct. 

With that being said, if this Strat warming event evolves, then I'm rather confident we'll see a tremendous amount of blocking setting up to open Dec across N & E Canada.  If the LRC is correct, we will cycle through the part of the pattern where we saw the Hudson Bay Block.  Remember the HP's that would likely "seed the cold"???  I'm expecting to see a similar pressure pattern setting up but instead of it being a "warm" HP back in the Fall....this time of year, however, when there is snow OTG, it will "seed the cold".  Let's see if what I said back then does in fact transpire.  This will be a big personal test of mine and I'm really curious to see where it goes from here.  I hope it does pan out for the sake of all of us who are looking for winter wx to lock in.

Current status....

 

By Day 10...

 

 

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

As we close out November and look towards the opening of Dec, I'm seeing some interesting developments up in the Strat.  A complete reversal across North America from a cold upper atmosphere and a move towards a big warming event.  We saw a similar situation back in early October...are we seeing a cycle??  Could be...but I find that the Strat doesn't really have a cyclical nature to it as it behaves in it's own peculiar way.  It does fit the pattern like what happened back in Oct. 

With that being said, if this Strat warming even evolves, then I'm rather confident we'll see a tremendous amount of blocking setting up to open Dec across N & E Canada.  If the LRC is correct, we will cycle through the part of the pattern where we saw the Hudson Bay Block.  Remember the HP's that would likely "seed the cold"???  I'm expecting to see a similar pressure pattern setting up but instead of it being a "warm" HP back in the Fall....this time of year, however, when there is snow OTG, it will "seed the cold".  Let's see if what I said back then does in fact transpire.  This will be a big personal test of mine and I'm really curious to see where it goes from here.  I hope it does pan out for the sake of all of us who are looking for winter wx to lock in.

Current status....

 

By Day 10...

 

 

I think we (in particular me) were to quick to jump on the start of cycle 2.  IMO this coming week is not the start of cycle 2, while the blocking is very similar it's the Hudson Bay block that you mention above that's missing.  Looking at last nights EC I think I found what I was looking for and a match to the Oct 10/11th part of the pattern that I have been looking forward too.  This time I'll wait for some verification but this would indicate the cycle length could be more in the 54 to 55 day range.

This would also have the nice shot of very cold air behind it that I expected.  Lets see how it goes.

 

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we (in particular me) were to quick to jump on the start of cycle 2.  IMO this coming week is not the start of cycle 2, while the blocking is very similar it's the Hudson Bay block that you mention above that's missing.  Looking at last nights EC I think I found what I was looking for and a match to the Oct 10/11th part of the pattern that I have been looking forward too.  This time I'll wait for some verification but this would indicate the cycle length could be more in the 54 to 55 day range.

This would also have the nice shot of very cold air behind it that I expected.  Lets see how it goes.

 

I was thinking the same thing yesterday wrt the cycle length.  It may be longer than what I was guessing it to be (42-44 days).  IMO, there appears to be many harmonic patterns that are testing me to figure this years cycle length out.  As you said, we may need some more time.

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

I was thinking the same thing yesterday wrt the cycle length.  It may be longer than what I was guessing it to be (42-44 days).  IMO, there appears to be many harmonic patterns that are testing me to figure this years cycle length out.  As you said, we may need some more time.

You mentioned a few days ago how similar parts of this pattern are and you are correct.  Over the summer you mentioned the blocking that developed south of Greenland and I began tracking that.  If you go back and look that strong block seems to repeat every 45 to 50 days (maybe a cycle with in a cycle) and I was guilty of letting that influence what I thought the cycle length would be.  But if the EC is to be believed it's the Hudson Bay block that was there in Oct and is missing this week, that seems to correlate with the Oct 10th/11th storm.

FWIW Gary has moved back his Winter forecast from Nov 29th to Dec 2nd.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You mentioned a few days ago how similar parts of this pattern are and you are correct.  Over the summer you mentioned the blocking that developed south of Greenland and I began tracking that.  If you go back and look that strong block seems to repeat every 45 to 50 days (maybe a cycle with in a cycle) and I was guilty of letting that influence what I thought the cycle length would be.  But if the EC is to be believed it's the Hudson Bay block that was there in Oct and is missing this week, that seems to correlate with the Oct 10th/11th storm.

FWIW Gary has moved back his Winter forecast from Nov 29th to Dec 2nd.

Hmmm, now that’s interesting to hear Gary is moving it back.  I bet he’s confused also!

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Hmmm, now that’s interesting to hear Gary is moving it back.  I bet he’s confused also!

I agree I am pretty sure he thought cycle 2 was going to start around Thanksgiving based on his forecast for this week but now is backing up faster than a politician.

[jaster220]

@Tom@Clinton Great banter fellas! Keep chasing the LR puzzle on behalf of all of us here. Meanwhile, all we can do is wait-n-see. This morning I was reviewing my past winter's daily snowfall log that I've kept since 13-14 season (only kept totals prior to that) and noticed that every year from 2013-2019 we had either a good Nov or good Dec. Only last winter saw duds in both months. Hoping this winter doesn't follow suit and go the way of 88-89 and 11-12. But I can't even count 11-12 as that included my biggest storm on 11/29/11 that featured one of only a handful of times I've witnessed 2+"/hour synoptic rates (over 4 hrs worth). Last winter for Marshall consisted of a 2-wk period from Jan 31 to Feb 15, then winter vanished. Take that period out of my table and I stretched the other 15" of snow over all the other weeks of the season (and I count every scrap 0.1" that others wouldn't even consider a snowfall). 2018-19 was the last "good winter" for me so I really need a decent season to keep enthusiasm alive.

[Clinton]

30 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom@Clinton Great banter fellas! Keep chasing the LR puzzle on behalf of all of us here. Meanwhile, all we can do is wait-n-see. This morning I was reviewing my past winter's daily snowfall log that I've kept since 13-14 season (only kept totals prior to that) and noticed that every year from 2013-2019 we had either a good Nov or good Dec. Only last winter saw duds in both months. Hoping this winter doesn't follow suit and go the way of 88-89 and 11-12. But I can't even count 11-12 as that included my biggest storm on 11/29/11 that featured one of only a handful of times I've witnessed 2+"/hour synoptic rates (over 4 hrs worth). Last winter for Marshall consisted of a 2-wk period from Jan 31 to Feb 15, then winter vanished. Take that period out of my table and I stretched the other 15" of snow over all the other weeks of the season (and I count every scrap 0.1" that others wouldn't even consider a snowfall). 2018-19 was the last "good winter" for me so I really need a decent season to keep enthusiasm alive.

I think we all need a decent season this year and I think it will be.  I'm guilty of rushing things a little bit because the Oct part of the pattern will be very exciting.  I try not to do that but the weather enthusiast in me wins to often.  We just need to wait a couple more weeks which brutally hard this time of year.

The MJO seems to really be driving temps this year and phases 4,5,and 6 are terrible, but as @Hawkeyementioned yesterday it's forecasted to move into phase 7 as we go into December.  Hopefully that combined with the big storms of October will change our fortunes.  Hang in there and lets hope for a snowy December and maybe just maybe a white Christmas.

[jaster220]

Coming to an AFD near you.....some day

Quote

National Weather Service Gaylord MI
648 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow tonight off Lakes
Superior/Michigan with gusty winds/blowing snow.  Possible snow
squall with cold frontal passage late afternoon.

Reviewing models, this one looks like an eastern UP special. Expect some big numbers coming from that region by Tues.

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Tis the season....Chicago held its annual Lights Festival on Michigan Ave yesterday and it certainly delivered!  Great shot from Barry Butler...

 

Meantime, out here its sorta starting to feel like the holidays as I'm seeing more locals putting up Christmas decor.  I ventured out to some stores yesterday and picked up some good deals, but I didn't really get that "holiday feel"...I still feel like I'm on vacation out here.  The weather has been phenomenal and I'm embracing every min of it.

While much of the nation from the "heartland" and points west will be basking in AN temps post Thanksgiving, most of the eastern Sub will be rather cold for the official start to the holiday season.  It looks rather blustery and cold for the Lakes region on Black Friday.  Bundle up for those who are going to venture out and do some shopping!

 

 

Quite the divide showing up on the 0z Euro....literally, OMA/LNK is the divide between Autumn/Winter....imagine if there was snow OTG from IA and points northeast??  

 

 

 

Should be especially cold for the parking lot campers who will bust through the door for the door busters. Don't forget the sleeping bags and be wary of COVID super-spread potentials.

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Should be especially cold for the parking lot campers who will bust through the door for the door busters. Don't forget the sleeping bags and be wary of COVID super-spread potentials.

Got plenty of those parking lot campers!  The city should do more for them but they won't...have they started to clean up Venice beach?

[Madtown]

Too bad the weather station is wrong on the forecast.

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

Too bad the weather station is wrong on the forecast.

Which ambient is that? My davis pro solar quit in  about 4 yrs.    Im getting  a ambient

[Madtown]

2902c had an earlier version and loved as well

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Got plenty of those parking lot campers!  The city should do more for them but they won't...have they started to clean up Venice beach?

I don't think so.

[tStacsh]

Had a high of 51 so far today at my house.  Cut my lawn two weeks ago and with the same setting took another half inch off today with my riding mower sucking up leaves.   Somehow the grass is still growing and is green.    Still plenty of leaves on the trees. Though might be finally knocked down tonight with the wind.     Weird times we live in.   50 again this week by Wednesday.  Not much chance of snow the week or so.  
 

On to putting up Christmas lights!!

 

picture for reference added. 

[westMJim]

Getting a lot of pea sized hail here at this time.

 

[tStacsh]

57 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Getting a lot of pea sized hail here at this time.

 

An hour after I posted the picture above without a cloud in the sky.  Good timing on the yard work today.  Did not have hail here just a burst of heavy rain and 26 mph gust currently windy.  
 

and the wind just blew my door open 

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Coming to an AFD near you.....some day

Reviewing models, this one looks like an eastern UP special. Expect some big numbers coming from that region by Tues.

"called it"

APX:

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

...Major blast of winter on the way for eastern upper MI...

High Impact Weather Potential: Locally very high. Heavy lake effect
snow with near blizzard conditions in parts of eastern upper MI
tonight.

I had a good laugh when I read this sentence:

Initial guidance from WPC gave just about an inch
of liquid QPF in the 6hr window ending at 12Z/7am Monday, in a
band over ne Chippewa Co. Have toned that down, just to give some
snowfall accums that I can sort of live with.

It's actually a good sign to see this due north of SEMI, and very correct per the climo calendar. 2nd week of gun deer season is notoriously snowy in the UP.

But that said, there are still some very large
accums in the forecast for tonight (and into Mon morning), over
the Sault and the north half of Sugar Isl. Someone is getting a
foot of snow (at least) tonight.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Had a high of 51 so far today at my house.  Cut my lawn two weeks ago and with the same setting took another half inch off today with my riding mower sucking up leaves.   Somehow the grass is still growing and is green.    Still plenty of leaves on the trees. Though might be finally knocked down tonight with the wind.     Weird times we live in.   50 again this week by Wednesday.  Not much chance of snow the week or so.  
 

On to putting up Christmas lights!!

 

picture for reference added. 

Meanwhile over here at KDTW we topped out at only 43F today. Stepped out to 38F and rain which lasted several hours. It's been crazy how SEMI has been colder than SWMI for several years running. I still remember the Dec 2010 storm that threw a warm 4" on SWMI while over here they got twice that and a warning not just the ole WWA. That one was very noticable. Today was more about timing. Clouds hung on here and by the time it cleared up, it was geting dark so the sun never really got to us.

[GDR]

[Tom]

Boy, I got the chills looking at the temps right now out across IA/MN this morning as temps are bottoming off into the low/mid 10's!  Yikes, that must have a bite to it.... @Grizzcoat @james1976must be enjoying these temps...

Well, it doesn't look like we will have much of a Thanksgiving storm system to track this week as I thought.  It appears that both pieces of energy will phase over Ontario just like the one that just tracked thru the MW/GL's region yesterday & today.  On the other hand, the +PNA pattern and -NAO will develop a stout NW Flow and the models/ensembles are suggesting a couple clippers to dive S/SE over the MW/GL's to close out the month of Nov.  Some of you may get some bouts of snowfall until the "pullback" comes knocking on the door for those who have been BN temp wise.

IF, the 0z EPS is correct, then my long standing call weeks ago for an early DEC pullback seems to be on target.  What happens next is still in question but I suspect that we will see the models grow stronger on the idea of a colder pattern setting up post 6th/7th of DEC.  I anticipate the EPO to head towards neutral territory or even (-) which would create a favorable pattern to unleash the "Arctic Hounds" down western Canada into the western/central Sub during the 1st full week of DEC.  Depending on the LRC cycle length, I'm predicting multiple storms to traverse the Sub Week 1 of DEC and there will be plenty of blocking across Canada.  The BSR is a great LR tool and it had a dominant HP pattern that developed across the Aleutians about a week ago and it is poised to continue for quite some time.  This is a Big clue as we head deeper into DEC.

 

Enjoy the Blow Torch for those of you in the western Sub, b/c what I think will happen Week 1 of DEC will be a dramatic flip for ya'll!  #RealWinter is coming to a place near you.....

 

The Euro is not backing off the Phase 7 MJO by the DEC 6th (ish) period...

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the GFS and Euro are both showing a blowtorch to open December.  The GFS, however, continues to hint at a major reversal to active and very cold toward the end of the first week of the month.

[MIKEKC]

The Chiefs are back!! Great defense yesterday. I think that was the #1 offense they faced. 

Spring like weather here in KC looks to continue. This weekend into next week could have several days 60 or higher. Likely be 60 or higher the next few days also. I have only recorded 3 overnight lows below 32 this fall, the lowest has been 27 degrees. I would assume that is well below the average for below freezing nights to date. 

After that....BAM! GFS drops a foot of snow on KC around Dec. 6th-8th. 

So, the storm that we thought would happen this week and  another on the 29th/30th appears a no go. Right? What does that do to the LRC cycle? IF the October part of the pattern does not return until Dec. 5th or so, are we looking at 60+ day cycle? 

[westMJim]

Here at my house there was a period of pea sized hail with the cold front last evening. Not much in the way of rain fall thought as just 0.02" of rain with the front. The overnight low here was 29 and that is the current temperature with broken clouds.

[westMJim]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Coming to an AFD near you.....some day

Reviewing models, this one looks like an eastern UP special. Expect some big numbers coming from that region by Tues.

Here are the web cams from the Munising and Grand Marais area 

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

and while less snow fall here are the cams from the Houghton area

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/

[Madtown]

looking at flooding the rink, how warm we talking next week?

[Niko]

Temps will remain BN except for "Turkey Day." Highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Tanite readings will really drop. Lows are expected to be in the upper teens to around 20F. Coldest nite of the season on tap.

NOAA
Ensuing increase in cold air advection likely met with rapidly
declining moisture quality as the mid level dry slot arrives by
Thursday evening, suggesting a very limited window for a possible
transition to snow within the immediate post-frontal, synoptically
forced environment. Conditions Friday then look similar to that
noted today, characterized by below average temperatures within a
generally dry northwest flow.

[GDR]

I’ve had dec 8-9 circled and 11-13 since oct so will see.

[gimmesnow]

It's amazing how yesterday was so nice, and Wisconsin snow guns at ski resorts have been blasting all night.

[Hawkeye]

It dropped to 16º here again this morning (just like a few mornings ago).  The CR airport dropped to 13º, a new low for the season.

[GDR]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

End-of-the-run hope from the GFS.  I've been snookered by those end-of-the-fun cold fronts and snowstorms so many times in the past.  And yet here I am still getting my hopes up ....  

don’t worry it’s gone now

[MIKEKC]

1 minute ago, someweatherdude said:

My experience when the GFS shows a snowstorm, and then I check back for the next run. 

 

Yep, the NEW 12z GFS has upper's 60's and thunderstorms for the same date that showed a foot of snow around Dec. 5-8th on 06z GFS

[MIKEKC]

The latest 12z GFS has 60-70 degrees almost every day for a week to 10 days here in KC after the brief cool down on Turkey Day. Fine by me, its still Fall. I'll take that until about Dec. 15th, after that, I'll gladly welcome winter.