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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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NOAA:

A quick transition through weak surface high pressure occurs Friday night into Saturday that brings an end to another benign lake effect snow scenario. Extended model solutions then offer increasing evidence of an active NW upper level flow pattern for the remainder of the holiday weekend. There are scale interactions left to sort out on the predictability of the leading NW flow short wave as it moves toward the Great Lakes Saturday. This system is expected to either track to our south along the Ohio valley front or slow down while phasing with the larger scale trough digging down from central Canada. The latter scenario affords opportunity for cyclogenesis right over the Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday which could produce a respectable snow accumulation in Lower MI judging by the 12Z ECMWF solution Saturday night through Sunday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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13 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

A quick transition through weak surface high pressure occurs Friday night into Saturday that brings an end to another benign lake effect snow scenario. Extended model solutions then offer increasing evidence of an active NW upper level flow pattern for the remainder of the holiday weekend. There are scale interactions left to sort out on the predictability of the leading NW flow short wave as it moves toward the Great Lakes Saturday. This system is expected to either track to our south along the Ohio valley front or slow down while phasing with the larger scale trough digging down from central Canada. The latter scenario affords opportunity for cyclogenesis right over the Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday which could produce a respectable snow accumulation in Lower MI judging by the 12Z ECMWF solution Saturday night through Sunday.

18z GFS has it too. Could this be our next "surprise" storm? Actually gets flakes in here overnight Saturday. Staying tuned for sure on this. Not like it's 10 days out.

image.thumb.png.5a02cd087b80110107c08b5445930222.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

18z GFS has it too. Could this be our next "surprise" storm? Actually gets flakes in here overnight Saturday. Staying tuned for sure on this. Not like it's 10 days out.

image.thumb.png.5a02cd087b80110107c08b5445930222.png

Amigo..this could be our first legit (WSW type) snowstorm of the season. As you said..its not that far off.  Fingers crossed!!

Btw: I like how the darker blue color is situated on top of SMI.

Note: Next week looks very active! Oh boy!!!!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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22 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo..this could be our first legit (WSW type) snowstorm of the season. As you said..its not that far off.  Fingers crossed!!

Btw: I like how the darker blue color is situated on top of SMI.

Note: Next week looks very active! Oh boy!!!!!!

Yeah, b4 I saw your post (I'd not gotten to any AFD's yet after work) I was going to post that our region at least had a shot at some action with the cold temps hanging on here and that Peeps to our SW might be watching from the sidelines until some major pattern change comes in. Read your post and was like "there it is!" haha. Just began my 4 day holiday weekend and was thinking there'd be not much of anything to track. Looking much better in that dept partner.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

While we work on our tans the Mich crew gets a nice snow. 18z EC

image.thumb.png.2bc7725241f398eee360450bb253edbc.png

D*amn! That's like 7" here in NW Wayne. This is so 2017 looking at what this portrays. Almost a carbon copy of that winter's first Clipper/hybrid. Appreciate you taking a moment to post for us bud!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

D*amn! That's like 7" here in NW Wayne. This is so 2017 looking at what this portrays. Almost a carbon copy of that winter's first Clipper/hybrid. Appreciate you taking a moment to post for us bud!

No problem. It's neat that you mention 2017 because Gary Lezak has been saying the same thing.

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40 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, b4 I saw your post (I'd not gotten to any AFD's yet after work) I was going to post that our region at least had a shot at some action with the cold temps hanging on here and that Peeps to our SW might be watching from the sidelines until some major pattern change comes in. Read your post and was like "there it is!" haha. Just began my 4 day holiday weekend and was thinking there'd be not much of anything to track. Looking much better in that dept partner.

😅

Yes sir....as you said previously in your other posts, "As long as there is cold air around, there is always a chance for snow in our neck of the woods."

It turns much colder on Friday. My highs barely make it to Freezing (probably 30F or 31F at best). So, cold air is in place for sure. Also, cold air sticks around into all of next week. Its amazing how its been consistently cold here w very brief mild spells. Happy tracking amigo..hope we get hit hard!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No problem. It's neat that you mention 2017 because Gary Lezak has been saying the same thing.

I was going to post the other day that, by old school rules what we've been experiencing here in SEMI (since the 10/22 flip) would portend "glad tidings" for a winter enthusiast. The one thing lacking had been any of Tom's big early season storms he'd been touting. I didn't want him to take my post the wrong way (out of respect) so I never said anything. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No problem. It's neat that you mention 2017 because Gary Lezak has been saying the same thing.

Thanks for posting amigo.......

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

😅

Yes sir....as you said previously in your other posts, "As long as there is cold air around, there is always a chance for snow in our neck of the woods."

It turns much colder on Friday. My highs barely make it to Freezing (probably 30F or 31F at best). So, cold air is in place for sure. Also, cold air sticks around into all of next week. Its amazing how its been consistently cold here w very brief mild spells. Happy tracking amigo..hope we get hit hard!

Yep, APX mentioned how the CF is speeding up in the guidance and looks more intense than originally thought 12 hrs prior.

AFD's overnight should be much "perkier" (is that a word?).

This was GRR's lame comments this pm (by holiday fill-in, yep the notorious forecaster "04")

Quote
A clipper system will be the next to affect our weather Saturday
night and Sunday. Thermal profiles suggest that would be most likely
in the form of snow. Much of the lift on the isentropic surfaces is
across far southern Lower and Indiana and so we don`t anticipate
much in the way of accumulation with this system either.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No problem glad there is some snow on the way for ya.

Thanks bud!!!

Keep sending Jaster and me some good looking snow maps! 😉

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just now, Clinton said:

No problem glad there is some snow on the way for ya.

I'm so ready to kick-off the holiday season amigo! Taking the fam up to Frankenmuth Saturday for a belated T-day dinner, shopping, and all-around festive day. I lived there in 2005 and it's one of SEMI's tourist gems. Home of Bronner's year-round Christmas mega-store and they go all-out with the holiday lights all across town. Tom's photo of downtown Chicago was awesome too, just much cozier in the little Bavarian city here in The Mitt.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking out further..GFS keeping hopes alive for sig storm on the backside of the early Dec heat bubble:

image.thumb.png.5a365e8616440fabbd47288863a8356f.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I was going to post the other day that, by old school rules what we've been experiencing here in SEMI (since the 10/22 flip) would portend "glad tidings" for a winter enthusiast. The one thing lacking had been any of Tom's big early season storms he'd been touting. I didn't want him to take my post the wrong way (out of respect) so I never said anything. 

If you have time to look at the 18z GFS it shows the big storm part of the pattern beginning around Dec 5th. Long cycle this year I thought the storms would be here at the end of this month.

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looking out further..GFS keeping hopes alive for sig storm on the backside of the early Dec heat bubble:

image.thumb.png.5a365e8616440fabbd47288863a8356f.png

Yes..this storm should be a colder storm...further SE trends to continue.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yes..this storm should be a colder storm...further SE trends to continue.

Not necessarily meant to imply that this would/could be "our storm". Just a good sign that phased S. Stream storms could be on the table on the other side of the torch. If it was Jan 6th and way NW (aka past 3 winters) then I'd be upset. To say we (SEMI Peeps) have big storm climo in the dead of winter is a bit wonky though, since #1 and #2 all-time happened outside MET winter. Having grown up in SEMI tho, JFM was the peak times for big dog storms with few exceptions.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Light rain has been falling the last few hours, so far .25 has fallen.  It's the first measurable precip I have received in several weeks.

Was going to ask if you were getting anything out of the Fropa? Glad to hear it.

Meanwhile, what a Turkey Day Ann Arbor folks enjoyed back in '93! Unless this is in error, that out-does even far Northland locales with much snowier Nov climo (SMH).

image.png.031918c55b729fecf63f20dcd915492c.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z NAM pounding me in the wee hours of Sunday morning local time.

 

20211125 0z NAM Surf h81.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM at end of range. 3" here and not done..giddy-up!

20211125 0z NAM Snowfall h84.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nothing crazy historic by any means, but many more NEG days this month here than Positive departures. For the record, I'm cold enough for my liking, especially after the extended warmth of Hoctober.

 

image.png.5c832a632f26b741beb2c489a646a986.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM pounding me in the wee hours of Sunday morning local time.

 

20211125 0z NAM Surf h81.PNG

Hey Jaster...you forgot to mention my area also.....😄

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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23 minutes ago, Niko said:

Hey Jaster...you forgot to mention my area also.....😄

You're way up north in Macomb. Snow's a given there, lol. I think Clinton covered you pretty well anyways. You're stylin' on the models so far bud..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I know it’s the GFS, but dear God the 0Z run is a blow torch for basically everyone west of Michigan.

I get 0” of snow the next 384 hours and average 11.2 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE. I probably am not even the warmest on that run in our area. There’s multiple times with areas of temps 30+ degrees above average.

Until this pattern actually breaks, I’m not so sure it’s wrong.

 

floop-gfs-2021112500.sfct_anom.conus.gif

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I’m grateful for everything and everyone who has made an impact in my life.  I’m grateful for this community and all that it brings.  Hope you all have a blessed and delicious Thanksgiving feast!

Speaking of which, I prepped this 23 pounder on Tuesday…

 


 

 

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Much colder than what NWS said just 6 hours ago. Currently 15F at my place when it wasn't supposed to be below 20F. First 0F or colder wind chill of the season officially! It's nasty out there.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Onto the wx....boy, you Michiganders are in for a nice lil stretch of active winter wx....0z Euro bringing a couple rounds of snow for your area to close out the month.  The pattern is ripe for Alberta clippers to traverse the region....

0z Euro...

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

Much colder than what NWS said just 6 hours ago. Currently 15F at my place when it wasn't supposed to be below 20F. First 0F or colder wind chill of the season officially! It's nasty out there.

image.png.6bf6f453b3a4a5c086b6699fe159071d.png

Novembrrrr!  I know this will be transient but the intensity of this brief arctic shot is something with bare ground.  Up north, the 1st sub zero readings of the season in the Dakotas/MN areas.  

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Not to bad for no snow on the ground for 100's of miles. Far from record breaking ,but 40F+ colder than yday. Was smoking wings y'day about this time...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I’m grateful for everything and everyone who has made an impact in my life.  I’m grateful for this community and all that it brings.  Hope you all have a blessed and delicious Thanksgiving feast!

Speaking of which, I prepped this 23 pounder on Tuesday…


 

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone else.  Hope everyone has a safe and relaxing Turkey Day!

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7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I know it’s the GFS, but dear God the 0Z run is a blow torch for basically everyone west of Michigan.

I get 0” of snow the next 384 hours and average 11.2 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE. I probably am not even the warmest on that run in our area. There’s multiple times with areas of temps 30+ degrees above average.

Until this pattern actually breaks, I’m not so sure it’s wrong.

 

floop-gfs-2021112500.sfct_anom.conus.gif

The teleconnections are terrible right now and are going to be a problem for us for awhile.  Lets hope the MJO can make it to phase 7, it clearly seems to be driving the temps lately.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I’m grateful for everything and everyone who has made an impact in my life.  I’m grateful for this community and all that it brings.  Hope you all have a blessed and delicious Thanksgiving feast!

Speaking of which, I prepped this 23 pounder on Tuesday…


 

 

Your vid isn't showing for me, but enjoy that big bird and hope you have a memorable Thanksgiving with your fam. Same greeting goes out to all here on our platform! 43F and rainy here attm.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Your vid isn't showing for me, but enjoy that big bird and hope you have a memorable Thanksgiving with your fam. Same greeting goes out to all here on our platform! 43F and rainy here attm.

@TomYes....the vid was not working for me either, so I was not able to see that delicious Turkey you were cooking....no worries, I am sure it looked delicious.......Enjoy!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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