jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Niko said: All eyes to next weekend. Snow could return w/a vengeance again in SMI and this time for many on this forum. Huh?? I see nothing but warm cutters on the GFS. But I'd pay good $$ to be in MQT when/if this scenario played-out: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Huh?? I see nothing but warm cutters on the GFS. But I'd pay good $$ to be in MQT when/if this scenario played-out: Check out Toms post above amigo! Brace yrself! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, Tom said: @Clinton, I did some digging into the LR pattern and from what I'm seeing (I was waiting for the CPC maps to update) is the W NAMER/PAC NW unusual warmth to begin flipping big time as we turn towards Week 1 of DEC. Using the strat map below, it appears there will be a "brief" transient period to open DEC allowing for a surge of warmth from a storm system that has been on my radar using the BSR from earlier in Nov. I recall this storm that formed over the Aleutians back in mid Nov (the start of a wave train) had a lot of blocking to the north of it and I was expecting to see more HP to form across Canada. The GFS op runs are going ballistic with the cold and affirms the idea which the BSR is suggesting that massive COLD Canadian HP's will ultimately "seed the cold" into the pattern post 4th. I do see, however, a signal for a SER in this pattern along with the lack of a -NAO/-AO block. This will keep the pattern very active but with transient cold/warm periods through mid DEC. Our members up north won't have to worry about their snow pack melting in between systems but those of us farther south will. Nevertheless, the fun will begin for most of the Sub once we get into the opening days of DEC. Notice at the end of the animation below, the blues which will indicate a trough to begin sliding down in typical La Nina fashion through W NAMER into the central Plains/Upper MW. This will bring us out towards the beginning of Week 2 in DEC when I feel the colder pattern will start to "press" farther S/SE. On top of that, the Euro OP is showing a Strat Warming event across NW NAMER to open DEC...just another LR signal that NW/W NAMER will fill up with brutal cold and has "eyes" for the west/central CONUS. It does appear that we are finally going to see some #realwinter wx for our western Sub returning but not in the immediate future. Meantime, the active eastern Sub will continue in the near term & mid range, of which, our next storm we will likely be tracking for the following weekend to open up DEC. 0z EPS members are signaling a growing possibility of an OHV track...one of the LRC's "hot spot" storm tracks. I haven't focused on which part of the LRC cycle this is but I will try to dive more deeply into this over the weekend. I have family here and one of my good friends is also visiting so my time will be sparse. Plus, I'll be out and enjoying the sunshine and soaking up Vitamin D poolside! Talk about a "boring" pattern, ay?? Not gonna complain... 0x EPS showing some big hits the following weekend....Lower Lakes/OHV cutter in the works??? Thanks and enjoy your holiday! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, Tom said: @Clinton, I did some digging into the LR pattern and from what I'm seeing (I was waiting for the CPC maps to update) is the W NAMER/PAC NW unusual warmth to begin flipping big time as we turn towards Week 1 of DEC. Using the strat map below, it appears there will be a "brief" transient period to open DEC allowing for a surge of warmth from a storm system that has been on my radar using the BSR from earlier in Nov. I recall this storm that formed over the Aleutians back in mid Nov (the start of a wave train) had a lot of blocking to the north of it and I was expecting to see more HP to form across Canada. The GFS op runs are going ballistic with the cold and affirms the idea which the BSR is suggesting that massive COLD Canadian HP's will ultimately "seed the cold" into the pattern post 4th. I do see, however, a signal for a SER in this pattern along with the lack of a -NAO/-AO block. This will keep the pattern very active but with transient cold/warm periods through mid DEC. Our members up north won't have to worry about their snow pack melting in between systems but those of us farther south will. Nevertheless, the fun will begin for most of the Sub once we get into the opening days of DEC. Notice at the end of the animation below, the blues which will indicate a trough to begin sliding down in typical La Nina fashion through W NAMER into the central Plains/Upper MW. This will bring us out towards the beginning of Week 2 in DEC when I feel the colder pattern will start to "press" farther S/SE. On top of that, the Euro OP is showing a Strat Warming event across NW NAMER to open DEC...just another LR signal that NW/W NAMER will fill up with brutal cold and has "eyes" for the west/central CONUS. It does appear that we are finally going to see some #realwinter wx for our western Sub returning but not in the immediate future. Meantime, the active eastern Sub will continue in the near term & mid range, of which, our next storm we will likely be tracking for the following weekend to open up DEC. 0z EPS members are signaling a growing possibility of an OHV track...one of the LRC's "hot spot" storm tracks. I haven't focused on which part of the LRC cycle this is but I will try to dive more deeply into this over the weekend. I have family here and one of my good friends is also visiting so my time will be sparse. Plus, I'll be out and enjoying the sunshine and soaking up Vitamin D poolside! Talk about a "boring" pattern, ay?? Not gonna complain... 0x EPS showing some big hits the following weekend....Lower Lakes/OHV cutter in the works??? That is one sunny outlook. Makes you wanna forget about Winter for a min 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Niko said: That is one sunny outlook. Makes you wanna forget about Winter for a min I'm like in a whole different world out here in the desert SW...its really hard to believe that winter is even possible but with the festive lights being put up around town it reminds you of the holiday season. I was at the resort casino Talking Stick in Scottsdale last night and it was buzzing with many tourists and locals. Full disclosure, I already purchased my plane ticket to head back home...I'm sure the wx will be an abrupt change to get used to when I get back. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 This morning's 6z run goes bonkers post 4th. Nice to see the EC on board as well. I think winter is about to begin. After all, it is still only November. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 48 minutes ago, Niko said: Check out Toms post above amigo! Brace yrself! To be fair, he basically posted while I was composing my post, lol. Still, it's like 9.5 8.5 days out yet, and not exactly a consensus attm. Would love the Euro to score a LR "nothing but net" swoosh from mid-court, but it'll take some work to erase recent LR busts, heck even MR busts like last Christmas when It insisted on going nuclear over SMI/WOH. Cheers to hoping it's onto something amigo! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, Tom said: I'm like in a whole different world out here in the desert SW...its really hard to believe that winter is even possible but with the festive lights being put up around town it reminds you of the holiday season. I was at the resort casino Talking Stick in Scottsdale last night and it was buzzing with many tourists and locals. Full disclosure, I already purchased my plane ticket to head back home...I'm sure the wx will be an abrupt change to get used to when I get back. In the shoulder seasons especially, that's sometimes true just between SMI and NMI. Enjoy it buddy, WC's in the single digits await your return.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Huh?? I see nothing but warm cutters on the GFS. But I'd pay good $$ to be in MQT when/if this scenario played-out: Party at my place! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just reading last Nov's thread from this same time-frame a year ago. We're basically in the same spot - hoping Dec would get cold and rock big snows. I know it didn't work out for too many of us in that respect and kudos to Grizz for calling it from roughly mid-Nov. His follow-up post wrt the state of the AO was true too. Needed a -AO to get colder air to take hold. The cold never pressed into SWMI, as seen in my daily snow log showing only 9.4% of my rather meager total was via LES. Normal is in the mid-20's percent. Cold blasting through with a NW fetch wasn't a feature of last winter at all. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, jaster220 said: To be fair, he basically posted while I was composing my post, lol. Still, it's like 9.5 8.5 days out yet, and not exactly a consensus attm. Would love the Euro to score a LR "nothing but net" swoosh from mid-court, but it'll take some work to erase recent LR busts, heck even MR busts like last Christmas when It insisted on going nuclear over SMI/WOH. Cheers to hoping it's onto something amigo! 1 hour ago, Niko said: Check out Toms post above amigo! Brace yrself! I'm expecting more of a western trough, much further west than what the EC is showing and much more in line with what the GFS is showing. Can you guys get a big snow out of that type of set up and if so what should I look for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: I'm expecting more of a western trough, much further west than what the EC is showing and much more in line with what the GFS is showing. Can you guys get a big snow out of that type of set up and if so what should I look for? Short answer = NO What the GFS shows at least until latter part of the run would have tStacsh chiming in here with "see, I told ya'll, another winter with endless warm cutters". Either the GFS is missing some blocking attm, or the Euro is off it's LR rocker. We shall see.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Short answer = NO What the GFS shows at least until latter part of the run would have tStacsh chiming in here with "see, I told ya'll, another winter with endless warm cutters". Either the GFS is missing some blocking attm, or the Euro is off it's LR rocker. We shall see.. This pattern has produced a lot of blocking, the western trough won't last forever. Lets hope it can deliver! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 12z blows up an east coast storm 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Storm system thinking about coming together around 12/5 time frame, but this mostly fizzles out in the midwest before strengthening further east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: To be fair, he basically posted while I was composing my post, lol. Still, it's like 9.5 8.5 days out yet, and not exactly a consensus attm. Would love the Euro to score a LR "nothing but net" swoosh from mid-court, but it'll take some work to erase recent LR busts, heck even MR busts like last Christmas when It insisted on going nuclear over SMI/WOH. Cheers to hoping it's onto something amigo! Exactly bud.....All we can do is hope. I am just glad that so far this season, we are able to be tracking some storms/clippers, unlike other years. Cheers to ya too ma friend and happy tracking! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I'm expecting more of a western trough, much further west than what the EC is showing and much more in line with what the GFS is showing. Can you guys get a big snow out of that type of set up and if so what should I look for? Most likely no amigo. Too far west of a "Trough" is a nono for us, even for you who is situated further south and west. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Short answer = NO What the GFS shows at least until latter part of the run would have tStacsh chiming in here with "see, I told ya'll, another winter with endless warm cutters". Either the GFS is missing some blocking attm, or the Euro is off it's LR rocker. We shall see.. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Today, the coldest high temp of the late Autumn season thus far has occurred. My temp is hovering at 30F all day w on and off snowshowers. Winds are gusty as well, adding a wcf in the teens. Btw: Temps are turning colder for next week and that warm-up that was being advertised is slowly vanishing. Perhaps models are finally detecting the blocking!!! Also, next weekend temps are drastically colder as well. Possibly looking into a colder storm scenario as well. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Niko said: Today, the coldest high temp of the late Autumn season thus far has occurred. My temp is hovering at 30F all day w on and off snowshowers. Btw: Temps are turning colder for next week and that warm-up that was being advertised is slowly vanishing. Perhaps models are finally detecting the blocking!!! Also, next weekend temps are drastically colder as well. Possibly looking into a colder storm scenario as well. If the torch is muted, then the Euro may be onto something. Still waiting for Tom to back the Euro up with a nice loop of the GEFS backing up the Euro. Right now, they're not in the same camp. Plenty of time ofc for that to improve. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: If the torch is muted, then the Euro may be onto something. Still waiting for Tom to back the Euro up with a nice loop of the GEFS backing up the Euro. Right now, they're not in the same camp. Plenty of time ofc for that to improve. Last run of GFS was ice age. Next run was normal winter and even really warm by mid December. Modeling has been awful long range. Need to look for other signs than a few model runs. Not sure what to think. Will enjoy a few inches of snow and winter for a few days before it all melts next week. I’m in the sweet spot for this clipper which means I’ll be dry slotted and mixed with drizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 hours ago, Niko said: Today, the coldest high temp of the late Autumn season thus far has occurred. My temp is hovering at 30F all day w on and off snowshowers. Winds are gusty as well, adding a wcf in the teens. Btw: Temps are turning colder for next week and that warm-up that was being advertised is slowly vanishing. Perhaps models are finally detecting the blocking!!! Also, next weekend temps are drastically colder as well. Possibly looking into a colder storm scenario as well. Had 29F on my car thermo and per DTW hourlies in the hottest part of the day. Random flurries were in the air, and the skiffs of snow on the roofs held all day, no sun popping out to nuke. A very classic late autumn SEMI day, but definitely BN in the temps dept. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Last run of GFS was ice age. Next run was normal winter and even really warm by mid December. Modeling has been awful long range. Need to look for other signs than a few model runs. Not sure what to think. Will enjoy a few inches of snow and winter for a few days before it all melts next week. I’m in the sweet spot for this clipper which means I’ll be dry slotted and mixed with drizzle. hahaha - see my other post wrt ''clippers". Models being clueless in the LR is about the only thing positive at the moment for 1st half of Dec. As for these (3) little waves, GRR seems bullish on your odds for follow-on LES later Sunday. Hope things work out that way. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 54 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Had 29F on my car thermo and per DTW hourlies in the hottest part of the day. Random flurries were in the air, and the skiffs of snow on the roofs held all day, no sun popping out to nuke. A very classic late autumn SEMI day, but definitely BN in the temps dept. It was certainly a cold day. Mainly upper 20s for highs w a brisk breeze, causing wc readings into the teens for most of the day. That is way BN tempwise. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: It was certainly a cold day. Mainly upper 20s for highs w a brisk breeze, causing wc readings into the teens for most of the day. That is way BN tempwise. Good! Cuz we just had back-2-back +2 days in that dept 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Temps solidly in the upper 20's across the Metro. Even a few lower to mid-20's as you get west into the countryside. AA at 26F for example. I'm at the lime green dot.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 My next door neighbor was telling me he's going to the "Big House" tomorrow for the U of M/OSU show-down. Going early to tailgate. Looks like Ma Nature is going to add her own spice to the afternoon. Snowbowl-2 in the making?? Haha, if only we were looking down the barrel at an historic storm of that caliber! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Oh, and btw, 0z GFS just may be baby-stepping towards the Euro for next Saturday. Now has a UP/NMI snowstorm. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Oh, and btw, 0z GFS just may be baby-stepping towards the Euro for next Saturday. Now has a UP/NMI snowstorm. It should, this is worth watching for your area with the cut-off energy coming up from the south. Western trough shouldn't develop until the 2nd week of Dec. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: It should, this is worth watching for your area with the cut-off energy coming up from the south. Western trough shouldn't develop until the 2nd week of Dec. And then there's the "other" Tom's take 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 4 hours ago, Niko said: It was certainly a cold day. Mainly upper 20s for highs w a brisk breeze, causing wc readings into the teens for most of the day. That is way BN tempwise. Cold is a waste without snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 What will this DEC bring??? Let's discuss... https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/9483-december-2021-observations-and-discussion/ 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 November is going to finish very warm, I'll enjoy it but I'm ready for December and some cha cha changes! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: November is going to finish very warm, I'll enjoy it but I'm ready for December and some cha cha changes! Dangggggg...you are having some really mild weather there bud. Enjoy it while ya still have it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Light snow just started here. With a temperature of 29 it is already staying on the grass, driveway and the road. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Here imby is 27F w/ increasing cloud cover. No wind at all. Man, it feels and smells like snow out there. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 A bit of freezing rain moved through my area this morning. There is some ice on the bird feeder. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 About 1/4” of snow and it’s almost done. So disappointing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, westMJim said: Light snow just started here. With a temperature of 29 it is already staying on the grass, driveway and the road. Thank you for that intel. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: About 1/4” of snow and it’s almost done. So disappointing. In the fwiw dept, the NAM does re-develop snow later on as the SLP slides more SE. You may have a lull, but not be totally done for the event. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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