jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: Here imby is 27F w/ increasing cloud cover. No wind at all. Man, it feels and smells like snow out there. I'm departing the region shortly. DTX update says basically "all systems go" for our headlines attm. Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1032 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 .UPDATE... The elevated warm front has progressed over SE Michigan this morning with regional radar showing some returns progressing eastward across the state as fgen begins to light up. Still a few pockets of dry air to contend with before snow begins reaching the ground in earnest, evidenced by elevated ceiling heights and the 12z DTX sounding. This process won`t take long as forcing begins to ramp up with the parent low pressure tracking into southern Wisconsin over the next few hours. Did bump up pops on the early end as there have been some obs over western and central Michigan indicating snow is already beginning to reach the ground. Forecast remains on track in that a general 2 to 3 inch snowfall is still expected across much of the central forecast area through the afternoon and evening. Peak snowfall rates of about 0.10 to 0.25 inches per hour are expected with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s allowing snow to accumulate on roadways. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in good shape. Snow then tapers off around midnight as the low pressure tracks along the Michigan/Ohio border. Whoops - wrong thd Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: In the fwiw dept, the NAM does re-develop snow later on as the SLP slides more SE. You may have a lull, but not be totally done for the event. I’m in the wrong thread as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 The ground is now covered with about 1/4 inch of snow here. There is some slushy snow on the road and driveway but also not much. Light snow is falling with a temperature of 32. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Another windy day here with NW winds 20-40 mph. No precip with yet another dry frontal passage. Had temps jump 15 degrees in one hour this morning from 39 to 54 degrees between 9am and 10am, peaking at 61 degrees but now slowly falling as the CAA starts to kick in a bit more. After tonight's low in the mid 20's, it doesn't look like we drop below freezing for all of next week with several days in the 60s possible. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Another windy day here with NW winds 20-40 mph. No precip with yet another dry frontal passage. Had temps jump 15 degrees in one hour this morning from 39 to 54 degrees between 9am and 10am, peaking at 61 degrees but now slowly falling as the CAA starts to kick in a bit more. After tonight's low in the mid 20's, it doesn't look like we drop below freezing for all of next week with several days in the 60s possible. A few nights have lows forecasted in the 40s. Very torchy going into December. 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Congrats Michiganders on the football victory today. Long overdue. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Its beautiful outside. Nice Winter Wonderland. Here are my current conditions outside: Light Snow Fog/Mist 31°F -1°C 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Niko said: Its beautiful outside. Nice Winter Wonderland. Here are my current conditions outside: Light Snow Fog/Mist 31°F -1°C Some spotty cells trying to get in here as well. Let's see if I can get under one: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 242 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2021 MIC093-099-125-282045- /O.NEW.KDTX.SQ.W.0001.211128T1942Z-211128T2045Z/ 242 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2021 Livingston County-Macomb County-Oakland County- The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Oakland County in southeastern Michigan... Southwestern Macomb County in southeastern Michigan... Eastern Livingston County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 345 PM EST. * At 242 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Rochester to near Clarkston to near Byron, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes the following highways... I-75 between mile markers 60 and 105. I-94 between mile markers 1 and 28. I-96 between mile markers 143 and 167. M-10 between mile markers 13 and 18. M-53 between mile markers 16 and 24. M-59 between mile markers 38 and 49. US-23 between mile markers 53 and 77. This snow squall will be near... Romeo and Rochester around 245 PM EST. Clarkston around 250 PM EST. Fenton around 255 PM EST. Sterling Heights, Clinton and Macomb Township around 300 PM EST. Pontiac, Mount Clemens and Hartland around 305 PM EST. St. Clair Shores around 315 PM EST. Troy, Milford and Birmingham around 320 PM EST. Southfield and Royal Oak around 325 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this snow squall include Franklin, Keego Harbor, Waterford, Shelby Township, Holly State Recreation Area, Commerce, Utica, Auburn Hills, Lake Angelus and Pleasant Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra time. Rapid changes in visibility and slick road conditions may lead to accidents. Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Note: This squall looks scary on radar.... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, Niko said: Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 242 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2021 MIC093-099-125-282045- /O.NEW.KDTX.SQ.W.0001.211128T1942Z-211128T2045Z/ 242 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2021 Livingston County-Macomb County-Oakland County- The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Oakland County in southeastern Michigan... Southwestern Macomb County in southeastern Michigan... Eastern Livingston County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 345 PM EST. * At 242 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Rochester to near Clarkston to near Byron, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes the following highways... I-75 between mile markers 60 and 105. I-94 between mile markers 1 and 28. I-96 between mile markers 143 and 167. M-10 between mile markers 13 and 18. M-53 between mile markers 16 and 24. M-59 between mile markers 38 and 49. US-23 between mile markers 53 and 77. This snow squall will be near... Romeo and Rochester around 245 PM EST. Clarkston around 250 PM EST. Fenton around 255 PM EST. Sterling Heights, Clinton and Macomb Township around 300 PM EST. Pontiac, Mount Clemens and Hartland around 305 PM EST. St. Clair Shores around 315 PM EST. Troy, Milford and Birmingham around 320 PM EST. Southfield and Royal Oak around 325 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this snow squall include Franklin, Keego Harbor, Waterford, Shelby Township, Holly State Recreation Area, Commerce, Utica, Auburn Hills, Lake Angelus and Pleasant Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra time. Rapid changes in visibility and slick road conditions may lead to accidents. Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Note: This squall looks scary on radar.... Heck ya! Pound town…take a vid! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, Tom said: Heck ya! Pound town…take a vid! I'd gotta tell ya..Detroit so far is on a roll. Great start tbh......near 4.5" otg and more to come w/ tomorrows clipper. I sure do like all of these headlines so far. Keep em coming Ma Nature. As for this crazy headline posted "Snow Squall Warning", it came down hard for a min, but it fizzled out as it was approaching my area. Nevertheless, it got windy/w moderate snow as it pushed on through. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 NOAA: Here is comes..more snow for the Metro Detroit Area. Modest height rises ensue for the early Monday period with an Ohio Valley surface ridge tracking through keeping conditions dry. Some peeks of sun will be around for the first half of the day which helps bump temps up to the mid 30s for a high. The next ripple in the energetic northwesterly flow will develop a surface low over the upper Midwest on Monday which swings down into the Great Lakes Monday evening. Warm advection aloft ramps up ahead of it during the day with the best isentropic ascent lining up mainly after 21z. The standard top-down saturation process will commence as ascent lowers through the column as well. The DGZ will be elevated near or above 600mb but solid fgen through a sizable part of the profile will result in a decent light snow event Monday night. Probabilities for snowfall are centered on 00-08z in the north and 01-07z in the Metro Detroit area with accumulations of about 1 to 2 inches most likely. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 If this forecast holds, we'll be at 22 consecutive days with no precipitation and still no snow this year. Our records latest first snowfall is the last week in December sometime, so still a ways to go for that. More highs above 60 than overnight lows below freezing for the first week of December. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind around 7 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 65. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. North northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 66. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Friday Sunny, with a high near 55. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: If this forecast holds, we'll be at 22 consecutive days with no precipitation and still no snow this year. Our records latest first snowfall is the last week in December sometime, so still a ways to go for that. More highs above 60 than overnight lows below freezing for the first week of December. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind around 7 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 65. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. North northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 66. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Friday Sunny, with a high near 55. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Really Resilient Ridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 The sunsets recently have been incredible. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: The sunsets recently have been incredible. Postcard pic amigo! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: If this forecast holds, we'll be at 22 consecutive days with no precipitation and still no snow this year. Our records latest first snowfall is the last week in December sometime, so still a ways to go for that. More highs above 60 than overnight lows below freezing for the first week of December. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind around 7 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 65. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. North northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 66. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Friday Sunny, with a high near 55. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. If the dsm forecast holds true I will be at 24 straight days with no measurable precip. Dry front after dry front. Wind shift after wind shift. Boring 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Niko said: I'd gotta tell ya..Detroit so far is on a roll. Great start tbh......near 4.5" otg and more to come w/ tomorrows clipper. I sure do like all of these headlines so far. Keep em coming Ma Nature. As for this crazy headline posted "Snow Squall Warning", it came down hard for a min, but it fizzled out as it was approaching my area. Nevertheless, it got windy/w moderate snow as it pushed on through. When I peeked at radar, I quick flipped over to DTX warning map expecting to see a SWS at least - nuthin tho. So I went back to radar only to see the thing get completely destroyed as it came south thru the higher terrain of Oakland Cnty. Would've been awesome way to cap off this first weekend of winter. What did reach here was brief SHSN. Still, going up the Market, it was nice to see plowed snow and not hafta wait til February! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 54 minutes ago, jaster220 said: When I peeked at radar, I quick flipped over to DTX warning map expecting to see a SWS at least - nuthin tho. So I went back to radar only to see the thing get completely destroyed as it came south thru the higher terrain of Oakland Cnty. Would've been awesome way to cap off this first weekend of winter. What did reach here was brief SHSN. Still, going up the Market, it was nice to see plowed snow and not hafta wait til February! I cannot recall when the last time I saw SSW in my forecast. It must have been a long time ago. But yes, too bad it faded as it moved south. That band looked like a beast, but in any case, it lasted briefly w moderate snow and gusty winds (20mph+), which was definitely ok by me. Ya ready for the next clipper? Its on its way. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 58 minutes ago, Niko said: I cannot recall when the last time I saw SSW in my forecast. It must have been a long time ago. But yes, too bad it faded as it moved south. That band looked like a beast, but in any case, it lasted briefly w moderate snow and gusty winds (20mph+), which was definitely ok by me. Ya ready for the next clipper? Its on its way. Amigo, this is #fun isn't it? This is what the GL's are good at in a favorable pattern - frequent snowfall, especially if you live in a LES belt. Almost non-stop when you get on a roll. I was fortunate enough to experience 7 winters of such in NWMI (not to mention my winters working in SWMI). I posted how active this Nina pattern could be once it dropped south to include our LAT. Looks like my former snowmobiling region is getting slammed with today's 2ndry clipper: 0430 PM SNOW FIFE LAKE 44.58N 85.35W 11/28/2021 M8.5 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI PUBLIC REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR TODAY AS OF 430PM. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Amigo, this is #fun isn't it? This is what the GL's are good at in a favorable pattern - frequent snowfall, especially if you live in a LES belt. Almost non-stop when you get on a roll. I was fortunate enough to experience 7 winters of such in NWMI (not to mention my winters working in SWMI). I posted how active this Nina pattern could be once it dropped south to include our LAT. Looks like my former snowmobiling region is getting slammed with today's 2ndry clipper: 0430 PM SNOW FIFE LAKE 44.58N 85.35W 11/28/2021 M8.5 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI PUBLIC REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR TODAY AS OF 430PM. Absolutely! Btw: My forecast is definitely colder next week, than what was predicted earlier. Only one day in the 40s now and the rest is 30s for high temps and 20s for lows. The weekend looks even colder now w/ snowshowers. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Here is my forecast from NOAA: Monday Night Snow Showers Likely Low: 29 °F Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. 2 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Niko said: Absolutely! Btw: My forecast is definitely colder next week, than what was predicted earlier. Only one day in the 40s now and the rest is 30s for high temps and 20s for lows. The weekend looks even colder now w/ snowshowers. The way this autumn(winter) has come on so strong, I have a difficult time believing it's suddenly going to torch us. I could be wrong, but the models flashing such may have just been models wrestling with an upcoming pattern adjustment, or re-alignment. If it's meant to be a good winter (or at least a good "period of wintry conditions") for our region we could see a short stretch of AN, then right back into the chill. At least that's the way it's feeling to me based on what I call "Old school rules", lol 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: The way this autumn(winter) has come on so strong, I have a difficult time believing it's suddenly going to torch us. I could be wrong, but the models flashing such may have just been models wrestling with an upcoming pattern adjustment, or re-alignment. If it's meant to be a good winter (or at least a good "period of wintry conditions") for our region we could see a short stretch of AN, then right back into the chill. At least that's the way it's feeling to me based on what I call "Old school rules", lol I hear ya! Also...not sure why, but for some reason, doesn't this seem to have (just a little) flashbacks of late Autumn 2013-14?! Not sure why, but for some reason, it keeps throwing in that year to me. I remember it was cold late Autumn that Winter and then I think (If I am not mistaken), by Dec 7th or 8th, give or take, we have our first accumulating snowfall. Correct me if I am wrong amigo. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 39 minutes ago, Niko said: I hear ya! Also...not sure why, but for some reason, doesn't this seem to have (just a little) flashbacks of late Autumn 2013-14?! Not sure why, but for some reason, it keeps throwing in that year to me. I remember it was cold late Autumn that Winter and then I think (If I am not mistaken), by Dec 7th or 8th, give or take, we have our first accumulating snowfall. Correct me if I am wrong amigo. You're correct on autumn 2013. Flipped hard from AN to BN mid-Oct with steady cold-n-snow commencing on the 8th of Dec. There was ups and downs tho. After we had cold shots of arctic air, and LES outbreaks, that was followed by the powerhouse 11-17-13 storm and TOR outbreak. This reminding me of Nov 08 which was cold, and the first storm left 4" in Marshall Nov 30th. In his weekly summary, JB was showing that this Nov has aligned very well with both 07 and 08. He's also been beating a drum for the Dec 95 cold signal since the tropics have a rare alignment only seen in that one winter (my personal longest and coldest). He likes to play a game of cross-pollinating analog seasons, and when you do it with those (3) analogs you will get this for DJF: Oh, and for transparency and fairness. He showed 2012 was another Nov analog and that ofc was very warm DJ, then FMA were super-frigid. Obviously, if he'd have included it, this map would look a lot less extreme, pretty tame even which 07-08 was if you recall. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 I'll be making a run at some record highs this week, I thought maybe I'd be done with the 70's by now. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 There was a trace of new snow fall here yesterday but with highs here in the mid 30 some of the snow on the ground melted and there is just one inch on the ground here this AM. There was some clearing overnight and the low dropped to 19 here the official low at GRR was 21. At this time it is 24 here with broken clouds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I'll be making a run at some record highs this week, I thought maybe I'd be done with the 70's by now. Enjoy it while ya can bud..it cannot last forever like this. Eventually, cold and snow will arrive for your area. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Wowza! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 62.2 IMBY, well on the way to forecast high of 68. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Sioux City has blown by the old record and expected high temp today. It is 70º at 2pm. We have also exceeded our forecast. It is currently 54º... nowhere near 70º, but still pleasant. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 With the very warm weather today, here is an interesting article from 2019 about one of the strongest cold fronts in American history that passed through the central states on November 11, 1911. Oklahoma City and Springfield (MO) both set record highs and lows on this same day! Maybe something like this will brush away the warms temps moving into December...ya just never know..lol. "At least two cities accomplished an incredible feat by setting both daily high- and low-temperature records on Nov. 11, 1911, that stand to this day. -Oklahoma City: A record high temperature of 83 degrees was set during the afternoon. Just before midnight on Nov. 11, a record low of 17 degrees was observed. The front was also accompanied by a dust storm. -Springfield, Missouri: At 3:45 p.m. local time, the temperature was a record 80 degrees. It then fell 67 degrees in 10 hours to a record-setting low of 13 degrees just before midnight on Nov. 11. Winds gusted up to 74 mph in the city as the front swept through, causing damage to buildings, the National Weather Service said." https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/united-states-notorious-cold-front-november-11-1911 5 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 It looks like I'll end up at 69.8 today IMBY. Temps have fallen back 4 degrees in the last hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Currently 61 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, mlgamer said: With the very warm weather today, here is an interesting article from 2019 about one of the strongest cold fronts in American history that passed through the central states on November 11, 1911. Oklahoma City and Springfield (MO) both set record highs and lows on this same day! Maybe something like this will brush away the warms temps moving into December...ya just never know..lol. "At least two cities accomplished an incredible feat by setting both daily high- and low-temperature records on Nov. 11, 1911, that stand to this day. -Oklahoma City: A record high temperature of 83 degrees was set during the afternoon. Just before midnight on Nov. 11, a record low of 17 degrees was observed. The front was also accompanied by a dust storm. -Springfield, Missouri: At 3:45 p.m. local time, the temperature was a record 80 degrees. It then fell 67 degrees in 10 hours to a record-setting low of 13 degrees just before midnight on Nov. 11. Winds gusted up to 74 mph in the city as the front swept through, causing damage to buildings, the National Weather Service said." https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/united-states-notorious-cold-front-november-11-1911 Love that wx lore. What's strange is, I don't consider MO one of the Plains states. Some truly incredible stuff from the wx dept in this country. Another autumn wild one is AL having snow on 11/2/66. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Today some sunshine came outta those clouds and skies turned mostly sunny for a time. It did remain BN w temps staying in the 30s for highs. Felt nice seeing some sunshine for a change. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 37 minutes ago, Niko said: Today some sunshine came outta those clouds and skies turned mostly sunny for a time. It did remain BN w temps staying in the 30s for highs. Felt nice seeing some sunshine for a change. Stay down here bud. You'd not make it in my old 'hood up in the real snow country. Try entire month of Dec zero sunny days (see 1992). 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 43 minutes ago, Niko said: Today some sunshine came outta those clouds and skies turned mostly sunny for a time. It did remain BN w temps staying in the 30s for highs. Felt nice seeing some sunshine for a change. Intra-hour 38F, makes this the 4th day in a row our high was in the 30's. Depending on tomorrow's projected 40F high temp, we could finish with 5 straight 30's and close to 2 degrees BN for the month. Both are going to be a very close call if we get any help from lingering clouds, or whatever. Strong sun with WAA, we roast lol. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I am enjoying the mild days. The rest of the week looks great, too. Once we get solidly into December, bring on the cold and snow. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Intra-hour 38F, makes this the 4th day in a row our high was in the 30's. Depending on tomorrow's projected 40F high temp, we could finish with 5 straight 30's and close to 2 degrees BN for the month. Both are going to be a very close call if we get any help from lingering clouds, or whatever. Strong sun with WAA, we roast lol. Hoping w snow cover around and low sun angle this time of the year and like you said (clouds lingering around), we can keep those 30s for highs tomorrow and go for 5 consecutive days in the 30s. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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